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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,521
  • Aug 20, 2020 11:47am Aug 20, 2020 11:47am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Are you talking about these honest, forthcoming people who removed the peg at 1.20 in the past and screwed up so-called "smart money"?...
haha, yea the same crew. They keep doing their thing.
  • #7,522
  • Aug 20, 2020 12:13pm Aug 20, 2020 12:13pm
GU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU abcd.PNG Size: 114 KB
  • #7,523
  • Aug 20, 2020 12:31pm Aug 20, 2020 12:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I think a short term top is in place on EU and GU. We might be looking at a deeper abc correction
we need to examine on smaller TF the internal structure of (b)-(c) wave and check if is completed...
Edit: mistake removed from the chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU08.20.5M.png Size: 80 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,524
  • Aug 20, 2020 12:33pm Aug 20, 2020 12:33pm
Quoting shahab8b
GU {image}
that will be interesting if it falls in place
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,525
  • Aug 20, 2020 12:44pm Aug 20, 2020 12:44pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} we need to examine on smaller TF the internal structure of (b)-(c) wave and check if is completed... Edit: mistake removed from the chart... {image}
Thanks for the chart. You're spot on. I went short @1.32
  • #7,526
  • Aug 20, 2020 12:49pm Aug 20, 2020 12:49pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks for the chart. You're spot on. I went short @1.32
you are within reasonable SL although I am not sure you need SL...Next step after completion of W(c) is setup zone for potential W_4 in case "boiler room" boys don't want to play nice (expected abc as you pointed out on your chart)
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,527
  • Aug 20, 2020 1:04pm Aug 20, 2020 1:04pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GU, long trade, will be watching 1.32 for a possible short setup {image}
good entry, mate
like mine))
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 20 08 enter.jpg Size: 137 KB
Like your wife says, hold the fucking position until I tell you I'm done.
  • #7,528
  • Aug 20, 2020 1:17pm Aug 20, 2020 1:17pm
EURGBP, long setup (178% ADR)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #7,529
  • Aug 20, 2020 1:20pm Aug 20, 2020 1:20pm
Quoting vowan4ik
{quote} good entry, mate like mine)) {image}
you have good skills. share your trade setups when you see a good setup
  • #7,530
  • Aug 20, 2020 1:24pm Aug 20, 2020 1:24pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} you are within reasonable SL although I am not sure you need SL...Next step after completion of W(c) is setup zone for potential W_4 in case "boiler room" boys don't want to play nice (expected abc as you pointed out on your chart)
GU has been a mad pair in the last three days. they're collecting retail stops left and right
  • #7,531
  • Aug 20, 2020 1:30pm Aug 20, 2020 1:30pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} you are within reasonable SL although I am not sure you need SL...Next step after completion of W(c) is setup zone for potential W_4 in case "boiler room" boys don't want to play nice (expected abc as you pointed out on your chart)
Let's see how much further they will push it higher. I might have to fold.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 820 2020.PNG Size: 69 KB
  • #7,532
  • Aug 20, 2020 1:42pm Aug 20, 2020 1:42pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} you are within reasonable SL although I am not sure you need SL...Next step after completion of W(c) is setup zone for potential W_4 in case "boiler room" boys don't want to play nice (expected abc as you pointed out on your chart)
Question, I've noticed when a pair exceeds 100% ADR in one day, it corrects to that 100% level the day after. What do you think based on your experience with ADR?
  • #7,533
  • Aug 20, 2020 1:57pm Aug 20, 2020 1:57pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDJPY, short setup @ 106 {image}
USDJPY, short trade update, moved sl to b/e
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYH1 820210.png Size: 54 KB
  • #7,534
  • Edited 3:12pm Aug 20, 2020 2:06pm | Edited 3:12pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Question, I've noticed when a pair exceeds 100% ADR in one day, it corrects to that 100% level the day after. What do you think based on your experience with ADR?
I go with the pattern-abc- because it's hard to guess how strong volatility will be the next day, sometimes you have a bang-bang play and sometimes the pattern drags forever but if the pair doesn't tank the next day after having engulfing or piercing line dark cloud bar we need to be vigilant and expect a deeper correction. I use the benchmark of 50% ret. of the prior day range (cyan dotted line on my chart). When this level doesn't act as S/R anything is possible...If we enter too early we can sit on the pain train for a while...
Edited...
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,535
  • Aug 20, 2020 2:39pm Aug 20, 2020 2:39pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} I go with the pattern-abc- because it's hard to guess how strong volatility will be the next day, sometimes you have a bang-bang play and sometimes the pattern drags forever but if the pair doesn't tank the next day after having engulfing or piercing line bar we need to be vigilant and expect a deeper correction. I use the benchmark of 50% ret. of the prior day range (cyan dotted line on my chart). When this level doesn't act as S/R anything is possible...If we enter too early we can sit on the pain train for a while...
Thanks a lot Coreg, that was a very detailed technical response.
  • #7,536
  • Edited 3:28pm Aug 20, 2020 3:11pm | Edited 3:28pm
Quoting vowan4ik
{quote} good entry, mate like mine)) {image}
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} you have good skills. share your trade setups when you see a good setup
my entry was based on:
Big bullsih trend on daily TF and after - the price is entering in the consolidation's zone.
Several days the price was on consolidation's zone and before yesterday - the price broke this zone. But we know - price don't move on a straight, it's move with some retrace
Yesterday move down is was just test this zone where movemet up started. h1 TF clealy showing this. Also we see stopping volume on a bearish candles (down arrows) - it's showing, the price is so tired to go down. After opening NY was a movement down, the price don't broke consolidation's zone (ellip on h1) clearly and don't closed clearly lower this zone, Asian low, yesterday low and have stopping volume (on a pin bar candles), overall this is showing a buyers pressure - i entered in the trade. h4 tf also showed good pattern and what this zone is keept.
At starting we broke this zone for movement up, but was a lot of buyers and on next day the price shaked those passengers, recruiting sellers and calmly went further up bit later after the opening of New York. I hope you will understand my vision.
if speak simple - Buy the dips in an uptrend, sell rallies in a downtrend
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Like your wife says, hold the fucking position until I tell you I'm done.
  • #7,537
  • Aug 20, 2020 3:29pm Aug 20, 2020 3:29pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} you are within reasonable SL although I am not sure you need SL...Next step after completion of W(c) is setup zone for potential W_4 in case "boiler room" boys don't want to play nice (expected abc as you pointed out on your chart)
That "ending diagonal" doesn't want to end. Dreadful pattern
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5 8209.png Size: 40 KB
  • #7,538
  • Aug 20, 2020 3:33pm Aug 20, 2020 3:33pm
Quoting vowan4ik
{quote} {quote} my entry was based on: Big bullsih trend on daily TF and after - the price is entering in the consolidation's zone. Several days the price was on consolidation's zone and before yesterday - the price broke this zone. But we know - price don't move on a straight, it's move with some retrace Yesterday move down is was just test this zone where movemet up started. h1 TF clealy showing this. Also we see stopping volume on a bearish candles (down arrows) - it's showing, the price is so tired to go down. After opening NY was a movement...
vowan4ik, simple and effective. keep up the good work.
  • #7,539
  • Aug 20, 2020 3:35pm Aug 20, 2020 3:35pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} AUDUSD, has a good short setup @ 0.72
I went short AU @ 0.72
  • #7,540
  • Aug 20, 2020 3:37pm Aug 20, 2020 3:37pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} That "ending diagonal" doesn't want to end. Dreadful pattern {image}
you know I hate it (diagonals and triangles)...you never know when it ends...hopefully, timing will play out
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU08.20.15M.png Size: 89 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
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