Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2652 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #53,021
  • Aug 20, 2020 5:55am Aug 20, 2020 5:55am
Quoting ia1979
Hi all. Looks like GU might be heading to 1.3150.
Looking a good call. Pivot I see at 3158 which would make sense - still some way to go though.

Then let NY reverse it all.
  • #53,022
  • Aug 20, 2020 6:22am Aug 20, 2020 6:22am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Looking a good call. Pivot I see at 3158 which would make sense - still some way to go though. Then let NY reverse it all.
U/Cad worth watching with news releases at 13.30 BST.
  • #53,023
  • Aug 20, 2020 7:08am Aug 20, 2020 7:08am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Looking a good call. Pivot I see at 3158 which would make sense - still some way to go though. Then let NY reverse it all.
once it was past 50% of adr at 13125 next stop would hopefully be 13150 which it did, nice shout
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,024
  • Aug 20, 2020 8:12am Aug 20, 2020 8:12am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Looking a good call. Pivot I see at 3158 which would make sense - still some way to go though. Then let NY reverse it all.
It's trying ...
  • #53,025
  • Aug 20, 2020 12:13pm Aug 20, 2020 12:13pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} once it was past 50% of adr at 13125 next stop would hopefully be 13150 which it did, nice shout
These 12-4am ranges on GU are being broken multiple times a day these days Billy. Of course I blame you . Usually GJ does its own thing but it too decided to follow GU today. Low break, high break, low break, and then finally high break again to go on and hit the ADR.
  • #53,026
  • Aug 21, 2020 1:41am Aug 21, 2020 1:41am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} These 12-4am ranges on GU are being broken multiple times a day these days Billy. Of course I blame you . Usually GJ does its own thing but it too decided to follow GU today. Low break, high break, low break, and then finally high break again to go on and hit the ADR.
Hi Bud, hope you are well.
1st, we are starting to get the moves on cable, other pairs excluding e/u i am not concerned about.

As i always say, i primarily traded the 00-00 break to fix a failed 08-00 15 min break (one example).
Look at the 08-00 stats , they are still good most of the time.
This is a classic example of why i only trade one pair and a specific bar.

Cable is being hit hard because i honestly think the market makers do not actually know, plus this is a reflection on the dollar index, with a certain guy killing the country plus no sign of a vaccine vaccine
Trade well..
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,027
  • Aug 21, 2020 2:19am Aug 21, 2020 2:19am
Cable 08-00 , 15 minute bar break.
Low broke for +5%.come to daddy.
Trade well all.
t 08-19
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,028
  • Aug 21, 2020 5:33am Aug 21, 2020 5:33am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Bud, hope you are well. 1st, we are starting to get the moves on cable, other pairs excluding e/u i am not concerned about. As i always say, i primarily traded the 00-00 break to fix a failed 08-00 15 min break (one example). Look at the 08-00 stats , they are still good most of the time. This is a classic example of why i only trade one pair and a specific bar. Cable is being hit hard because i honestly think the market makers do not actually know, plus this is a reflection on the dollar index, with a certain guy killing the country...
Getting back to my original 08-00 15 minute bar trade.
Since 21/7/20 until today 21/08/20 we have had 24 trades, 15 wins,,, 5 of second break and 4 lets call them fails.

as you all know i do not do fails as i counter.
trade well aal.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,029
  • Aug 21, 2020 5:49am Aug 21, 2020 5:49am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Getting back to my original 08-00 15 minute bar trade. Since 21/7/20 until today 21/08/20 we have had 24 trades, 15 wins,,, 5 of second break and 4 lets call them fails. as you all know i do not do fails as i counter. trade well aal.
Cheers for the stats Billy. That's a strike rate of just over 60%. Assuming this strike rate does not take into account the size of the 15 minute bar? I usually counter at -10 so the strike rate is bound to be lower for me. I have a feeling that if you counter at -10, the strike rate would be 50% or less. Might look into it at the weekend. The Billy bar is fantastic for a quick hit, to then get on with the rest of your day. As you can probably tell, I am paying more attention to the 4 hour ranges now as the strike rate on the 2nd break is a lot higher. However, even these have been strange at least 1-2 days a week as of late.

Here's some food for thought regarding the Billy bar - does the strike rate increase if we do the following:

If the Billy bar is red, we look for shorts only and if the Billy bar is green, we look for longs only

I don't know the answer but it is something for me to look into.
  • #53,030
  • Aug 21, 2020 6:00am Aug 21, 2020 6:00am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Getting back to my original 08-00 15 minute bar trade. Since 21/7/20 until today 21/08/20 we have had 24 trades, 15 wins,,, 5 of second break and 4 lets call them fails. as you all know i do not do fails as i counter. trade well aal.
It is also fascinating that some days after the Billy bar has been broken, price never turns to break the other end. Yesterday and today being prime examples. Bar broke and price went off in one direction only. On the 19th, we had a low, high, low break and then off it went. If I had a lot more capital behind me, I would probably follow the Billy bar break for a maximum of 3 breaks on one day. Because I remember looking at this in the past and once it has broken 2 or 3 times, it tends to search for the ADR. If it doesn't work out after the 3rd break, give up for the day and come back tomorrow.

I follow something similar for the 12-4am break now. Using an additional bias indicator, once the range has been broken 3 times and hasn't got the ADR, I quit for the day. One can diversify risk by using 2 pairs. I know you are having great success with EU and GU. I have been doing OK with GU and GJ.
  • #53,031
  • Aug 21, 2020 6:05am Aug 21, 2020 6:05am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Cheers for the stats Billy. That's a strike rate of just over 60%. Assuming this strike rate does not take into account the size of the 15 minute bar? I usually counter at -10 so the strike rate is bound to be lower for me. I have a feeling that if you counter at -10, the strike rate would be 50% or less. Might look into it at the weekend. The Billy bar is fantastic for a quick hit, to then get on with the rest of your day. As you can probably tell, I am paying more attention to the 4 hour ranges now as the strike rate on the 2nd break is...
nope, it isnt consistent enough....
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,032
  • Aug 21, 2020 6:08am Aug 21, 2020 6:08am
Quoting billytt
{quote} nope, it isnt consistent enough....
That'll save me some time, thanks Billy .

Have you also found that normally, after 1 or 2 breaks of the Billy bar, price tends to search for the ADR?
  • #53,033
  • Aug 21, 2020 6:15am Aug 21, 2020 6:15am
[quote=ia1979;13125180]{quote} It is also fascinating that some days after the Billy bar has been broken, price never turns to break the other end. Yesterday and today being prime examples. Bar broke and price went off in one direction only. On the 19th, we had a low, high, low break and then off it went. If I had a lot more capital behind me, I would probably follow the Billy bar break for a maximum of 3 breaks on one day. Because I rememb


getting back to counters,
example, lets say we had a break high and it fails, we then have low break and it fails, so high again and it fails, low fails etc
SOOOOOOO H,L,H,L,H,L, lets say they all fail with less than 5 pips.
we have 3 high fails and 3 low fails and i counter them all lol,,
If the next trade gets the 5 pips so will at least 3 of the counter trades. leaving me 3 trades to fix.

that is why i counter, it does mean having a ridiculous amount of margin to cover...
The above was an example at an extreme.
we then bring in the 00-00 bar.
Like i say it is only just lately all the mess has appeared, but it does happen.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,034
  • Aug 21, 2020 6:19am Aug 21, 2020 6:19am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} That'll save me some time, thanks Billy . Have you also found that normally, after 1 or 2 breaks of the Billy bar, price tends to search for the ADR?
price will always move to make a range, whether it is less than the adr or more.
i just copied the chart below, look in the box, 1 = daily range. 2 = adr
i normally delete this box when i post charts,
Attached Image


chart below, shows todays adr of 125, which has been hit, it was cut off by accident from chart above.

Attached Image
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,035
  • Aug 21, 2020 6:26am Aug 21, 2020 6:26am
AND, i have not traded 00-00 break with neither cable nor e/u,
weird thing is, i was going to trade e/u lol.
i normally do.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #53,036
  • Aug 21, 2020 6:37am Aug 21, 2020 6:37am
Quoting billytt
AND, i have not traded 00-00 break with neither cable nor e/u, weird thing is, i was going to trade e/u lol. i normally do.
Yes the low break on EU has done particularly well today. I didn't look at until now today.
  • #53,037
  • Aug 21, 2020 8:23am Aug 21, 2020 8:23am
Lemercenaire ! got an e/w treble on Gosden's rides at York. First two won at 6/1 and 9/4 respectively (Skybet). Need the 15.45 to come in.
  • #53,038
  • Aug 21, 2020 9:51am Aug 21, 2020 9:51am
Quoting claudia1
Lemercenaire ! got an e/w treble on Gosden's rides at York. First two won at 6/1 and 9/4 respectively (Skybet). Need the 15.45 to come in.
Thing came second ! Never mind a profitable afternoon for sure. Easy sells on cable too.
  • #53,039
  • Aug 21, 2020 2:14pm Aug 21, 2020 2:14pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOOSLOW4.png Size: 46 KB

Short paid.
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #53,040
  • Aug 24, 2020 1:25am Aug 24, 2020 1:25am
Hi all,
no trades yet, i decided to sleep lol.

00-00 4 hour bar break.

cable high broke, and e/u broke low thats it.
#i will be trading the 08-00 15 min bar break as normal.
Trade well all.
t 07-26
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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