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  • #81
  • Aug 17, 2020 4:31am Aug 17, 2020 4:31am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} AJ, price did reversHit the protective stop and close for +28 pips NJ shorts, from 69.71. As seen using Daily chart for bigger perspective, there is no place for any nearby support. Hence close half now, in the middle of nowhere, for +33pips, remainder, SL at BE and target lower. Wary of NY session{image} GJ shorts still in play, update later. EJ shorts still in play, update later.
GJ shorts, from 139.60, closed half now for +40 pips, as it hits top of channel.
Rationale for shorts, as previously said, a possible blow out top after bursting above 140, and the twice rejection of 140.
Attached Image

NJ shorts still in play, as previously mentioned
EJ shorts still in play, update later.
  • #82
  • Aug 17, 2020 7:30am Aug 17, 2020 7:30am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} GJ shorts, from 139.60, closed half now for +40 pips, as it hits top of channel. Rationale for shorts, as previously said, a possible blow out top after bursting above 140, and the twice rejection of 140. {image} NJ shorts still in play, as previously mentioned EJ shorts still in play, update later.
GJ, Closed remainder shorts for +78 pips. The Daily candle is already 100 pips and looked stretched. I will not push my luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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NZDJPY shorts still in play
EURJPY shorts still in play.
  • #83
  • Aug 17, 2020 8:44am Aug 17, 2020 8:44am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} GJ, Closed remainder shorts for +78 pips. The Daily candle is already 100 pips and looked stretched. I will not push my luck. {image} NZDJPY shorts still in play EURJPY shorts still in play.
EURJPY shorts, since Asia session, now close half for +46 pips. Not sure if wanna push for more. May just close.
Attached Image

NZDJPY shorts remainder half still in play.
GBPJPY no trades after closing remainder previously.

Lets take a look at USDJPY. The pair was rejected twice (seen on 4hr) by 107. Yen loves whole numbers.
This pair also broke below short term trend line. Did not expect it to fall so hard.
Well, it may correct up, and pull all XJPYs along up, and erase my profits for my Yen pair shorts.
Thats why I was thinking if I should close my EURJPY.
Attached Image
  • #84
  • Aug 17, 2020 5:00pm Aug 17, 2020 5:00pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} EURJPY shorts, since Asia session, now close half for +46 pips. Not sure if wanna push for more. May just close. {image} NZDJPY shorts remainder half still in play. GBPJPY no trades after closing remainder previously. Lets take a look at USDJPY. The pair was rejected twice (seen on 4hr) by 107. Yen loves whole numbers. This pair also broke below short term trend line. Did not expect it to fall so hard. Well, it may correct up, and pull all XJPYs along up, and erase my profits for my Yen pair shorts. Thats why I was thinking if I should close...
EJ & NJ shorts still active, in profit. RBA in focus for AUD.

USDJPY massive dip but did not produce any quick reaction back up. This likely meant it will dip further. But lets see how Asia Tokyo (opening in a hour or so) reacts.
Was glad not to be involve in the Majors. They were all in tight consolidation.

RBA will release their Monetary Policy meeting minutes at 9.30. I reckon no surprises, but worth to be cautious.
Anyway, AUD pairs are trying to test new highs. Best to stand aside AUD until RBA passes.
See Daily chart below of AUDUSD, AUDJPY, AUDNZD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #85
  • Aug 17, 2020 5:40pm Aug 17, 2020 5:40pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} EJ & NJ shorts still active, in profit. RBA in focus for AUD. USDJPY massive dip but did not produce any quick reaction back up. This likely meant it will dip further. But lets see how Asia Tokyo (opening in a hour or so) reacts. Was glad not to be involve in the Majors. They were all in tight consolidation. RBA will release their Monetary Policy meeting minutes at 9.30. I reckon no surprises, but worth to be cautious. Anyway, AUD pairs are trying to test new highs. Best to stand aside AUD until RBA passes. See Daily chart below of AUDUSD,...
Closed shorts of EJ for +47, NJ for +27.
Went Long USDJPY and CADJPY

Decided to close the remainder shorts, as they are all near (although not yet touch) support.
Also, USDJPY has touched a major support. The whole structure looked bullish. USDJPY may just rally and pull all other XXXJPYs up.
(If EJ and NJ goes on to dip further.......so be it.....cannot win them all....LOL)
See USDJPY Daily Chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #86
  • Aug 18, 2020 6:13am Aug 18, 2020 6:13am
Exciting times!
New highs for all Majors! (except NZDUSD and USDJPY)
Missing out on the actions today doing other things. Was still thinking this week gonna be a slow week without any important events. And being Tuesday....
I was wrong. LOL
Will digest the price action later, in my usual summary.
Exciting times, which only Forex traders would understand!
  • #87
  • Aug 18, 2020 4:56pm Aug 18, 2020 4:56pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Closed shorts of EJ for +47, NJ for +27. Went Long USDJPY and CADJPY Decided to close the remainder shorts, as they are all near (although not yet touch) support. Also, USDJPY has touched a major support. The whole structure looked bullish. USDJPY may just rally and pull all other XXXJPYs up. (If EJ and NJ goes on to dip further.......so be it.....cannot win them all....LOL) See USDJPY Daily Chart {image}
USDJPY shorts close loss for -35pips, CADJPY shorts close at BE.
Now THAT did not work out.
On a side note, EJ and NJ did went on to dip a bit further, but had quickly recover and rally more.
USDJPY , Daily, for perspective view
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  • #88
  • Aug 18, 2020 5:01pm Aug 18, 2020 5:01pm
Re-newed broadbase USD selling with a vengeance. According to reports, this was triggered by US election uncertainty and the disagreement over further COVID19 relief. All very political. Lives seems matters less than politics.

The USD selling has created new highs for all Majors! Except for NZDUSD, which is a long way off.
Will watch out for any end-of-trend signs like blow out tops. Will be watching the Daily TF for perspective.
Will sit out this set of moves as it is not easy to short Majors as this will be ""guessing the top"".
My own observation is Yen pairs seems to have already made blow out tops last week.

AUDJPY: Likely only 3 waves up from Mar’20, 4th wave limited by 77 figure and forming a large 2-month ascending triangle. No obvious top/peak yet.
AUDUSD: Likely 5-wave up from Mar’20, and the 5th wave still advancing. New multi month high due to USD sell-off.

EURJPY: Brief broke above 3-week old rising // channel. A blow-out top?. Now fell back to within the said channel.
EURUSD: Price made new mult month high due to USD sell-off.

GBPJPY: Price broke only briefly above zone of 140 and previous LH. Blow out top?
GBPUSD: Price made new mult month high due to USD sell-off.

NZDJPY: Likely only 3 waves up from Mar 2020, consolidating in a large horizontal channel (68 to 72), with prices falling back, maybe to test lower boundary of channel.
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up since Mar’20, 5th wave forming huge rising channel (best seen using Daily TF), with prices falling back and touched lower boundary of channel.

USDJPY: Large moves bouncing between 107 and 105.

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves from Mar2020, and created classic SHS at end but may not be valid as prices have risen back above neckline.
  • #89
  • Aug 19, 2020 12:11am Aug 19, 2020 12:11am
Short EURJPY and CHFJPY. Will not be touching the Majors as they are in the midst of string rally.

EURJPY, short. Channel not so well defined, which is somewhat of a concern.
Nevertheless the 13AUg spike could (for now) be label as blow out top. Price consolidating at base of channel, which might break below.
Target is base of channel again.
If my call for this trade is correct, and seeing how USDJPY is rallying.....then could EURUSD be falling soon? Food for though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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CHFJPY short. Channel also not so well defined.
Price have small bounce off channel base and consolidating there, and might break below..
Target is base of channel again.
I am also seeing USDCHF to rally.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Short GBPJPY, as price hopefully....rejected by 140 again.
But will need to monitor this very closely as GBPUSD is strong and may pull this up.
Attached Image
  • #90
  • Aug 19, 2020 3:45am Aug 19, 2020 3:45am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
Short EURJPY and CHFJPY. Will not be touching the Majors as they are in the midst of string rally. EURJPY, short. Channel not so well defined, which is somewhat of a concern. Nevertheless the 13AUg spike could (for now) be label as blow out top. Price consolidating at base of channel, which might break below. Target is base of channel again. If my call for this trade is correct, and seeing how USDJPY is rallying.....then could EURUSD be falling soon? Food for though. {image} CHFJPY short. Channel also not so well defined. Price have small bounce...
Close half of GBPJPY shorts for +67 pips as it hits former channel top. Caught a lucky break for this one.
Attached Image


Close half of CHFJPY shorts for +25 pips as it hits channel base.
Attached Image

EURJPY shorts still in play at +30 pips
USDCHF longs still in play. Where is SNB? Please intervene.....
  • #91
  • Aug 19, 2020 5:22am Aug 19, 2020 5:22am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Close half of GBPJPY shorts for +67 pips as it hits former channel top. Caught a lucky break for this one. {image} Close half of CHFJPY shorts for +25 pips as it hits channel base. {image} EURJPY shorts still in play at +30 pips USDCHF longs still in play. Where is SNB? Please intervene.....
Its gotta be the work of SNB! SNB to the rescue and save the day! (...for its exporters....a strong CHF makes it hard to export out )
Its not broadbase USD buying, as AUDUSD and USDCAD are stationary, and NZDUSD even rally.
Attached Image

See EURCHF as well, SNB to the rescue!
Attached Image


Okay, it may not really be SNB. But its fun to pretend.
A bit of history, see below chart from 2005.
SNB tried to defend EURCHF at 1.20, fixes the rate, very openly announced. Time after time. Very costly.
Until it gave up, without any warning, in 2015 Jan.
See the story
https://www.leaprate.com/news/how-fo...h-infographic/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot3.png Size: 41 KB
  • #92
  • Aug 19, 2020 5:58am Aug 19, 2020 5:58am
Closed USDCHF longs for +50pips
Attached Image


Closed of CHFJPY shorts for +75pips
Attached Image
  • #93
  • Aug 19, 2020 7:38am Aug 19, 2020 7:38am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Close half of GBPJPY shorts for +67 pips as it hits former channel top. Caught a lucky break for this one. {image} Close half of CHFJPY shorts for +25 pips as it hits channel base. {image} EURJPY shorts still in play at +30 pips USDCHF longs still in play. Where is SNB? Please intervene.....
Update on trades:
Had closed remainder GBPJPY shorts for +60pips
Had closed CHFJPY shorts as in previous post
Had closed USDCHF longs
Closing now EURJPY shorts for +5 pips, as it seemed not moving down.

Went short EURUSD
Went short GBPUSD


Update on the FX market in general:
Most pairs made new highs yesterday. However, there was no follow thru.
There was no euphoria from breaking new highs and go ballistic.
Hence the attempt to short
  • #94
  • Aug 19, 2020 9:03am Aug 19, 2020 9:03am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Update on trades: Had closed remainder GBPJPY shorts for +60pips Had closed CHFJPY shorts as in previous post Had closed USDCHF longs Closing now EURJPY shorts for +5 pips, as it seemed not moving down.
Went short EURUSD
Went short GBPUSD
Update on the FX market in general: Most pairs made new highs yesterday. However, there was no follow thru. There was no euphoria from breaking new highs and go ballistic. Hence the attempt to short
Closed EURUSD and GBPUSD both for about +30 small pips, when they suddenly sank fast. And I close fast, thankfully.
In fact, broadbase USD rally for all Majors.

If prices started to fall at least like 100 pips more, today's rejection will look more like a blow out top.
Nevertheless at this junction, it is still possible to continue bull trend, hence caution.

Recap back the trades for last few days.
When Majors starts to look static, I start to look at Yen pairs, and thankfully got some positive trades there.
And when Yen pairs looked stretched, I return back to Majors.
Perhaps next time, I should have placed a tiny position at the Majors while I venture to the Yens. Let me think about this.
  • #95
  • Aug 19, 2020 4:54pm Aug 19, 2020 4:54pm
Yesterday was really dramatic.
Majors broke to new highs. Then FOMC sank all of them with its pessimism.
FOMC was concerned about how to spur growth, was expecting more Fiscal aid (not we all know none has yet come), rising virus cases.
Very hard to trade news, because if this were a few months back, such bad news from USA would spur USD-selling (aka Majors to rally).

Anyway, the dip from new highs is fast and brutal.
But I reckon it cannot be classified as ""reversal of trend"".
Neither can it be classified as "false break" until price have indeed moved further down like 200-300 pips.
Its very difficult to trade such sharp moves.
I will probably look at other crosses, or just stay out for a while.
  • #96
  • Aug 19, 2020 6:59pm Aug 19, 2020 6:59pm
Previously, massive USD selling that created new highs was triggered by political uncertainty over elections, COVID package and COVID cases. Now, FOMC sank all the majors, for the exact same reason. So confusing. That's why I do not trade news. I only monitor their timing in case of whipsaw.

For Majors, the rejection-downward is a possible blow-out top, but is still possible for up trend continuation. Asia opening extends the drop a bit more. But it is still a difficult situation to trade.
For Yen pairs, all have pulled back to test minor support. Might trade this.

AUDJPY: Likely only 3 waves up from Mar’20, 4th wave limited by 77 figure and forming a large 2-month ascending triangle, and lingering in tight channel just below 77. No obvious top/peak yet.
AUDUSD: Likely 5-wave up from Mar’20, broke to new multi month high for a day and strong rejection back to middle of previous consolidation.

EURJPY: Brief broke above 3-week old rising // channel. A blow-out top?. Now fell back to base of the channel.
EURUSD: Made new multi month high for a day and strong rejection back to middle of previous consolidation.

GBPJPY: Price broke briefly above zone of 140 and previous LH. Blow out top? 2nd retest of 140 also got rejected.
GBPUSD: Made new multi month high for a day and strong rejection back to middle of previous consolidation.

NZDJPY: Likely only 3 waves up from Mar 2020, consolidating in a large horizontal channel (68 to 72) and lingering right in the middle (i.e 70 figure).
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up since Mar’20, 5th wave forming huge rising channel (best seen using Daily TF), with prices falling back and testing lower boundary.

USDCHF: Broke 5-year low in July, now a new multi-week low, followed by strong rejection rally up.

USDJPY: Large moves bouncing between 107 and 105.

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves from Mar2020, and created classic SHS at end but may not be valid as prices have risen back above neckline.
  • #97
  • Aug 20, 2020 6:45pm Aug 20, 2020 6:45pm
GBPUSD has attracted the most attention recently with it's price action after reach new highs. 200 pips down, then 170 pips up.

Today is Friday, Asia, London and lastly NY.
Must be careful not to plan trades with is not able to achieve by NY mid-session.
Hence will have very short term trades

For Majors, yesterday NY session provided relief rally. There is no evidence of bearish reversal for the main up trend yet. Fri Asia opening is static so far.
For Yen pairs, all have pulled back to test minor support and some have briefly broke them.. Might trade this.

AUDJPY: Likely only 3 waves up from Mar’20, 4th wave limited by 77 figure and forming a large 2-month ascending triangle, and lingering in tight channel just below 77. No obvious top/peak yet.
AUDUSD: Likely 5-wave up from Mar’20, broke to new multi month high for a day and strong rejection back to middle of previous consolidation.

EURJPY: Brief broke above 3-week old rising // channel. A blow-out top?. Now fell back to base of the channel and briefly broke it.
EURUSD: Made new multi month high for a day and strong rejection back to middle of previous consolidation.

GBPJPY: Price broke briefly above zone of 140 and previous LH. Blow out top? 2nd retest of 140 also got rejected.
GBPUSD: Made new multi month high for a day and strong 200 pips rejection back to middle of previous consolidation and immediately rally 160 pips..

NZDJPY: Likely only 3 waves up from Mar 2020, consolidating in a large horizontal channel (68 to 72) and seems to be targeting the base of the channel.
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up since Mar’20, 5th wave forming huge rising channel (best seen using Daily TF), with prices falling back and briefly broke lower boundary.

USDCHF: Broke 5-year low in July, now a new multi-week low, followed by strong rejection rally up and nearly equal stong back dip.

USDJPY: Large moves bouncing between 107 and 105.

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves from Mar2020, and created classic SHS at end but may not be valid as prices have risen back above neckline.
  • #98
  • Aug 20, 2020 6:58pm Aug 20, 2020 6:58pm
CHFJPY short and EURJPY short, cautiously.....

CHFJPY short, target 115.70 (y'day low)
Price rejected by top of the long term falling on 14Aug.
Subsequently also broke below short term rising channel.
Attached Image


EURJPY short, target 125 whole number
Price broke brielfy below rising channel
Attached Image
  • #99
  • Aug 20, 2020 7:11pm Aug 20, 2020 7:11pm
Long USDCHF, target 0.9181.
This is one those "guessing the bottom" just for kicks trade. LOL
Price made multi year lows and got rejected (upwards) by 0.90 figure.
Well, CHF is prone to intervention by Swiss National Bank (SNB), as I explained previously.
I have got SNB on my back, I can't lose! Erm, right???
(below, 4hr chart, and a weekly chart showing 10 years worth of price. Looks scary )
Attached Image

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  • #100
  • Aug 20, 2020 7:50pm Aug 20, 2020 7:50pm
Short AUDCAD. Target yday low and maybe just 0.94 at most.
Price made a possible SHS after a prolonged rally.
The subsequent dip got rejected by the top of previous channel....twice...but the 2nd rejection got weaker, and even got itself limited below 0.95 whole number.
(Daily chart, for perspective only. )
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