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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,421
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:11am Aug 14, 2020 9:11am
out of GU, sacrificed 25 pips... ouch
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU08.14.30M.b.png Size: 87 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,422
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:16am Aug 14, 2020 9:16am
Quoting Coreg2004
out of GU, sacrificed 25 pips... ouch {image}
yea, we're stuck in a consolidation
  • #7,423
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:25am Aug 14, 2020 9:25am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} yea, we're stuck in a consolidation
Yeah, I saw your chart with a triangle on it and expect some crazy $hit until it will be resolved...I didn't want to give up another 15 pips to check if GU resumes upward move
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,424
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:35am Aug 14, 2020 9:35am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Yeah, I saw your chart with a triangle on it and expect some crazy $hit until it will be resolved...I didn't want to give up another 15 pips to check if GU resumes upward move
That was expected. I checked ADR and it was 90%, I said it's about time.
  • #7,425
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:41am Aug 14, 2020 9:41am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Yeah, I saw your chart with a triangle on it and expect some crazy $hit until it will be resolved...I didn't want to give up another 15 pips to check if GU resumes upward move
We actually had two nice tweezer short setups yesterday and today around the same time. I've collected data on this setup H1, it's about 58-59% reliable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 814 9.PNG Size: 62 KB
  • #7,426
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:42am Aug 14, 2020 9:42am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} That was expected. I checked ADR and it was 90%, I said it's about time.
Yes, I have ATR on the chart and also 127.2% Ext. and set a limit order to take profit @ 1.31445, 2.1pips below the level...not generous enough to satisfy a broker?...
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,427
  • Aug 14, 2020 9:52am Aug 14, 2020 9:52am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} We actually had two nice tweezer short setups yesterday and today around the same time. I've collected data on this setup H1, it's about 58-59% reliable. {image}
I hesitated...
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,428
  • Aug 14, 2020 10:27am Aug 14, 2020 10:27am
Quoting shahab8b
EURGBP, long setup @ 0.90 {image}
EURGBP, my pending buy @ 0.90 didn't get filled, I went long after the bounce. Probably it's good for short scalp around here as well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBPH1 8142020.png Size: 31 KB
  • #7,429
  • Aug 14, 2020 10:30am Aug 14, 2020 10:30am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} I hesitated...
That's why it'd be good to let an AI run all these things.
  • #7,430
  • Aug 14, 2020 10:32am Aug 14, 2020 10:32am
GBPUSD, long setup
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 814 3.PNG Size: 97 KB
  • #7,431
  • Aug 14, 2020 3:43pm Aug 14, 2020 3:43pm
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC
EUR long 200K vs 180K long last week. Longs increased by 20K. EUR longs continue to rise and are at new record long position at 200K.
GBP short 3K vs 15K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 12K
I see triangle formations on both GU and EU. It's likely to be a continuation pattern. I stay bullish as long as 1.3 and 1.17 hold on GU and EU, respectively. I will reassess if we see a clear break of 1.30 or 1.17.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu tri 814.PNG Size: 97 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EU tri 814.PNG Size: 103 KB
  • #7,432
  • Aug 15, 2020 7:02am Aug 15, 2020 7:02am
Hi Coreg can you update me on how you see the waves d1 or higher

Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Bones, I start from ABC count and then if (iv)??? or 4??? holds I change my labeling to 12345 pattern. That's just my way of marking the progress so I am not confused about the degree of the trend ...If you see 5 waves in (A) you expect the market to make a zig-zag pattern (A)(B)(C). Later this pattern can become (I)-(V) of higher degree. We will get to it when it comes to it.{image} Zig-zag diagram...{image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,433
  • Aug 15, 2020 10:53am Aug 15, 2020 10:53am
Quoting Bones
Hi Coreg can you update me on how you see the waves d1 or higher {quote}
Bones, not much changed and GU is still in the process of completing W(iv)...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU08.14.daily.EOW.png Size: 72 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,434
  • Aug 15, 2020 11:24am Aug 15, 2020 11:24am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Bones, not much changed and GU is still in the process of completing W(iv)... {image}
Ok cool ,I just wanted to know you're still thinking that space, so you think we're still in wave 3 ? Only I'll never learn it without guidance.
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,435
  • Edited 11:41am Aug 15, 2020 11:31am | Edited 11:41am
so abc comes after 3
were still in 3
I got confused where abc comes into play
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1GBPUSD--week.png Size: 58 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: d1 GBPUSD-Daily.png Size: 64 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,436
  • Aug 15, 2020 2:58pm Aug 15, 2020 2:58pm
Quoting Bones
so abc comes after 3 were still in 3 I got confused where abc comes into play {image} {image}
Bones, forget about ABC for now just look at the last sequence of the trend from mid-June and compare it with the ideal wave scheme below...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU08.14.daily.EOW.2.png Size: 51 KB
By my chart, I determined that GU is in making or has already made (I don't know it for sure) W(iv). Wave 4 of any degree is almost always bi(a)tch to trade...
Attached Image
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,437
  • Edited 3:32pm Aug 15, 2020 3:19pm | Edited 3:32pm
Yea I see what you're saying, it looks right ,
Is time important
Do we have time to hit 916 and thinking the abc end of wave 3 is wrong now
only think one step at a time
only 916 would also be a trendline

Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Bones, forget about ABC for now just look at the last sequence of the trend from mid-June and compare it with the ideal wave scheme below...{image}By my chart, I determined that GU is in making or has already made (I don't know it for sure) W(iv). Wave 4 of any degree is almost always bi(a)tch to trade...{image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU08.14.daily.EOW.2.png Size: 83 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,438
  • Edited 4:50pm Aug 15, 2020 4:25pm | Edited 4:50pm
Quoting Bones
Yea I see what you're saying, it looks right , Is time important Do we have time to hit 916 and thinking the abc end of wave 3 is wrong now only think one step at a time only 916 would also be a trendline {quote} {image}
Bones, we need to keep TL to the same degree...Remember that (iv)th can poke thru TL but has to move inside the channel and continue to W(v)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU08.14.daily.EOW.3.png Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chan1.PNG Size: 70 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chan2.PNG Size: 10 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chan3.PNG Size: 112 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,439
  • Aug 15, 2020 6:59pm Aug 15, 2020 6:59pm
ok, I had no idea it could do that in this technique,I guess it makes sense because you're looking for peaks ,end of waves . Thanks for pointing out out.


Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Bones, we need to keep TL to the same degree...Remember that (iv)th can poke thru TL but has to move inside the channel and continue to W(v) {image} {image} {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #7,440
  • Edited Aug 16, 2020 3:49am Aug 15, 2020 8:13pm | Edited Aug 16, 2020 3:49am
So if it can leave that channel theres not rule those two waves need to be symmetrical . Like the diagram
Only my thought is reading price that isn't the start of an impulse,I guess it could be revving up.
Right it has to close back in the channel.Ok

Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Bones, we need to keep TL to the same degree...Remember that (iv)th can poke thru TL but has to move inside the channel and continue to W(v) {image} {image} {image} {image}
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
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