Why are there so many systems here. All systems over the long run will breakeven minus costs in a mean reverting asset class like FX, even with perfect risk management and discipline. The only reason it will make money is because you know something others don’t i.e. edge. The system itself has no edge, edge will come from a discretionary use of any particular system.
You can make money using literally any system, even a simple buy at the open, sell at the close system, provided you know when to do it and when not to do it. No system has this answer and is purely based on your own gut feeling, or some other information that others don’t know.
It doesn’t matter if your system is the most complicated system ever accounting for every single detail, it will eventually breakeven after a sizeable number of trades. That’s just how the market works.
On a concluding note I will say that some systems might seem better than others because of the PnL distribution. Some systems might have several winners and then one big loss, others might have the opposite distribution, and some will be in between. Which one you choose will depend on your preference. But make no mistake that they will eventually breakeven in a mean reverting market like FX or commodities. If used on positively biased markets like stocks or gold, the system will do no better than simple buy-and-hold.
So ask yourselves why you expect to make money simply following a system without having any kind of edge. This assumes perfect risk management and discipline, heck you can automate the damn thing if you want, it will still breakeven over a large sample size
You can make money using literally any system, even a simple buy at the open, sell at the close system, provided you know when to do it and when not to do it. No system has this answer and is purely based on your own gut feeling, or some other information that others don’t know.
It doesn’t matter if your system is the most complicated system ever accounting for every single detail, it will eventually breakeven after a sizeable number of trades. That’s just how the market works.
On a concluding note I will say that some systems might seem better than others because of the PnL distribution. Some systems might have several winners and then one big loss, others might have the opposite distribution, and some will be in between. Which one you choose will depend on your preference. But make no mistake that they will eventually breakeven in a mean reverting market like FX or commodities. If used on positively biased markets like stocks or gold, the system will do no better than simple buy-and-hold.
So ask yourselves why you expect to make money simply following a system without having any kind of edge. This assumes perfect risk management and discipline, heck you can automate the damn thing if you want, it will still breakeven over a large sample size
