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  • #61
  • Aug 11, 2020 6:48pm Aug 11, 2020 6:48pm
Some thoughts regarding the Majors and this current multi month strong rally (aka multi month USD weakness)
Is the rally ending? Now? Much later? I have no answer.

Seen with Daily TF, most of the Majors are showing what I called "fuzzy tops".
To me, such tops looks more like corrections and pauses. (see below examples of current price of Majors)
Attached Image

Personally, I would prefer having a "text-book"typical blow out sharp top at the end of a rally, to signal exhaustion of trend and welcome Bears.
See below random examples
Attached Image


NZDUSD and GBPUSD are both just below critical resistance for at least 5 days, and now showing weakness and may fall.
Who knows, maybe just a slight fall or correction, so that the trend will sharply up again to form a new high and sharp blow out top?

All the above are risk and possibilities to consider, and it is so difficult to make decisions.
  • #62
  • Edited 7:36pm Aug 11, 2020 7:19pm | Edited 7:36pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
Had shorted the Majors. Will be watch out for bounce at trendline and whole number supports. {image} {image} Shorted NZDUSD, and note NZD cash rates at 10am Asia. Technically, it has broke below 0.6585 support, and also below 5 month old rising line. Target 0.65{image}
NZDUSD dip sharply at 10am exactly, which is NZD rates announcements, rates unchanged at 0.25%.
NZDUSD short target hit 1st target 0.6545 (which I placed a Take Profit, hence automatically closed for profits).
This target was in reference to 23June peak. (see the yellow arrow)
I have another smaller position still in play, target 0.65, a whole figure.
Attached Image


Now that the horizontal supports and rising trendlines have been firmly broken, its time to see other possible supports
(I also need to take note that....Price might just wish to continue uptrend strongly, now that NZD rates is out of the way.....OMG)
Re-drawing trendlines, now see a possible channel, which happens to be near 0.65.
Will NZD bounce there and go strongly Bullish? Or will it break below to (sort of) confirm new Bear trend?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 33 KB
  • #63
  • Aug 11, 2020 7:57pm Aug 11, 2020 7:57pm
Short GBPJPY, small position.
GJ has broke only briefly above short term channel. To target the base of the channel.
To use a small position, will close for small loss if GJ rally back up. Will endure for more pips (so that the profit will magnify) if it goes down.
I think its called Risk:Reward, which is 30pips:120pips.

See below, zoom in at 4hr, zoom out at Daily, for perspective.
Attached Image
  • #64
  • Aug 11, 2020 9:43pm Aug 11, 2020 9:43pm
EURUSD, Bulls or Bears?

Its a corrective channel, bull flag = BUY
Its a inverse Adam & Eve, Double top = SELL

Attached Image
  • #65
  • Aug 12, 2020 12:43am Aug 12, 2020 12:43am
NZ news of new virus cases causes NZD to drop.
Asia session RBNZ cash rates news causes NZD to drop further
UK GDP and other data bet expectations, but compared to other countries, UK suffered the most economically (says a report)

London session opens, and unable to push Majors down further.

I closed off all remainder shorts, EUR for +45, GBP +70, NZD +50

Closed GBPJPY shorts for loss 30pips, small position, as price rally to hit back at channel top.
  • #66
  • Aug 12, 2020 1:44am Aug 12, 2020 1:44am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
NZ news of new virus cases causes NZD to drop. Asia session RBNZ cash rates news causes NZD to drop further UK GDP and other data bet expectations, but compared to other countries, UK suffered the most economically (says a report) London session opens, and unable to push Majors down further. I closed off all remainder shorts, EUR for +45, GBP +70, NZD +50 Closed GBPJPY shorts for loss 30pips, small position, as price rally to hit back at channel top.
I am glad to get out of my remainder halves of short positions when I see that London opening was unable to push them down.

The resultant bounce rally for Majors after London open was strong! In fact, it's broadbase USD selling!
As somewhat expected, there will be some bounce at the supports. And it looks like a big one.

Will stand aside and see what is going on until later in US session.
Shorting is not wise, as it be like going again this bounce rally, which may just go up further to "continue bull trend"
Long is not wise, as this bounce could just be a corrective bounce, and may dip to break supports.

LOL. So hard to decidde.
  • #67
  • Aug 13, 2020 2:23am Aug 13, 2020 2:23am
Short AUDCAD. small position to aim for 9440
This pair has rally since March in 5-Elliot-waves and at the end forms a textbook style Head-Shoulders
I am not the best in doing waves. But even if disregard the aves, we can see that price is slowly turning down.
But of course, turn down does not necessary mean "Bear trend to the bottom!". It may just dip a bit, before Bull trend much much much higher.

See Daily chart, just for perspective. I trade smaller TF, at 4hr and 1 hr and 15min.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot0.png Size: 42 KB
  • #68
  • Aug 13, 2020 4:04am Aug 13, 2020 4:04am
Short NZDUSD. The pair in a rising channel, limited by previous major LH and falling trendline.
Aiming for base of channel.
Fundamentals (although I am not that good at these): COVID19 new cases after 3 months of zero, and new lockdown.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot0.png Size: 36 KB
  • #69
  • Aug 13, 2020 5:44pm Aug 13, 2020 5:44pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
Short AUDCAD. small position to aim for 9440 This pair has rally since March in 5-Elliot-waves and at the end forms a textbook style Head-Shoulders I am not the best in doing waves. But even if disregard the aves, we can see that price is slowly turning down. But of course, turn down does not necessary mean "Bear trend to the bottom!". It may just dip a bit, before Bull trend much much much higher. See Daily chart, just for perspective. I trade smaller TF, at 4hr and 1 hr and 15min. {image}
AUDCAD short still in play, close half for +40pips, as it touches 5th June high, roughly the top of channel.
See below on Daily, just for perspective.
Note that it has 5 consecutive Bear candles already. What are the chances!!?! Hence beware.
The current candle just started a few hours ago, and remains to be seen it it will close bearish to give me more profit.
Attached Image
  • #70
  • Aug 13, 2020 5:48pm Aug 13, 2020 5:48pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
Short NZDUSD. The pair in a rising channel, limited by previous major LH and falling trendline. Aiming for base of channel. Fundamentals (although I am not that good at these): COVID19 new cases after 3 months of zero, and new lockdown. {image}
NZD shorts still in play, at +30pips. Had added another just now, which, damm that doubles my risk. *sweat*
Still aiming for bottom of (possible) channel.
See below, 4hr chart
Attached Image
  • #71
  • Aug 13, 2020 7:21pm Aug 13, 2020 7:21pm
Last day of the week. Might see squaring of positions.
NY session mixed.
Today will see Eurozone data at 5, and US retail sales at 8.30.

AUDJPY: Likely only 3 waves up from Mar’20, 4th wave limited by 77 figure and forming a large 2-month ascending triangle..
AUDUSD: Likely 5-wave up from Mar’20, 5th wave a expanding triangle, possibly an ending pattern.

EURJPY: Price rally hard to form a rising // channel and even break above it. A blow-out top?. Resistance is previous LH 127.51 (1stMar) On Daily, EJ seems to be full of // channels.since that date.
EURUSD: Price consolidate. Bullish-flag or bearish double top?.

GBPJPY: Price broke above zone of 140 and previous LH. Next resistance is zone of previous LH and 145 figure. .
GBPUSD: Consolidating below zone of confluence of peaks in Mar2020 (132.00) and large falling trendline from Apr 2016. Bullish-flag or bearish double top?.

NZDJPY: Consolidating in a large horizontal channel (68 to 72).
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up since Mar’20, 5th wave forming huge rising channel (best seen using Daily TF). Price stays below previous major LH at 0.6755 Dec2019.

USDJPY: 100% recovery of last month’s plunge, now back to 107..

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves from Mar2020, and created classic SHS.
  • #72
  • Aug 14, 2020 2:54am Aug 14, 2020 2:54am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} NZD shorts still in play, at +30pips. Had added another just now, which, damm that doubles my risk. *sweat* Still aiming for bottom of (possible) channel. See below, 4hr chart {image}
Closed NZDUSD early, before the Buy-Everything US session starts. The last session of the week.
Total +42 and +16
Attached Image
  • #73
  • Aug 14, 2020 2:59am Aug 14, 2020 2:59am
Closing a EJ short for +55 pips, as price bounce just before a support (6th Aug high)
Attached Image
  • #74
  • Aug 14, 2020 3:11am Aug 14, 2020 3:11am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} AUDCAD short still in play, close half for +40pips, as it touches 5th June high, roughly the top of channel. See below on Daily, just for perspective. Note that it has 5 consecutive Bear candles already. What are the chances!!?! Hence beware. The current candle just started a few hours ago, and remains to be seen it it will close bearish to give me more profit.{image}
Close AUDCAD short for +25 pips.
Somehow felt it has reached target and won't fall any more. Looks stretched. Close before the US Buy-everything session begins.
Also, now favouring AUD longs, hence will have conflict with this AUDCAD short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 36 KB


Long AUDJPY, to target break of Huge ascending triangle.
Will quickly close if it breaks below the short term rising trendline.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 42 KB
  • #75
  • Aug 16, 2020 1:22am Aug 16, 2020 1:22am
Last week tis'the week after NFP.
Majors continue to consolidate within their 3-week-old chart pattern. As the patterns are at the end of a 3-month old rally, the longer it takes to consolidate, the more it becomes a "continuous bullish pattern". I would still prefer a blow-out top to signal end of bull trend. If not, any retreat downwards may be shallow and prone to bull trend continuation.
As for Yen cross, they have all broke briefly above their 3-week-old chart pattern before retreating. Are these blow-out tops to signal end of trend?

Next week, there is not much events going on. Nothing to drive the Majors and may have low volume. It is possible that the Majors continue to be in consolidation.

AUDJPY: Likely only 3 waves up from Mar’20, 4th wave limited by 77 figure and forming a large 2-month ascending triangle..
AUDUSD: Likely 5-wave up from Mar’20, 5th wave a 3-week old expanding triangle, possibly an ending pattern.

EURJPY: Brief break above 3-week old rising // channel. A blow-out top?. Resistance is previous LH 127.51 (1stMar) On Daily, EJ seems to be full of // channels.since that date.
EURUSD: Price consolidate in slight rising 3-week old channel. Bullish-flag or bearish double top?.

GBPJPY: Price broke briefly above zone of 140 and previous LH. Blow out top? NOw broke below a short term rising channel.Next resistance is zone of previous LH and 145 figure.
GBPUSD: Consolidating in slight rising wedge just below zone of confluence of peaks in Mar2020 (132.00) and large falling trendline from Apr 2016. Bullish-flag or bearish double top?.

NZDJPY: Likely only 3 waves up from Mar 2020, consolidating in a large horizontal channel (68 to 72).
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up since Mar’20, 5th wave forming huge rising channel (best seen using Daily TF). Price stays below previous major LH at 0.6755 Dec2019.

USDJPY: 100% recovery of last month’s plunge (from 107 to 104), now just below 107..

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves from Mar2020, and created classic SHS at end.
  • #76
  • Edited 5:06pm Aug 16, 2020 4:45pm | Edited 5:06pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Close AUDCAD short for +25 pips. Somehow felt it has reached target and won't fall any more. Looks stretched. Close before the US Buy-everything session begins. Also, now favouring AUD longs, hence will have conflict with this AUDCAD short. {image} Long AUDJPY, to target break of Huge ascending triangle. Will quickly close if it breaks below the short term rising trendline. {image}
Start of a new week, 17 Aug.
Last week's AUDJPY longs (a small position, over the weekend) is still in play.
Closing half now for +29 pips before Tokyo opens.
2nd target is the 22July high of 76.87.
I opine that this AUDJJPY may be the only Yen pair that will rally. The other Yen pairs seems poised for downward movement.

Attached Image


EDIT: Tokyo just opens, AJ rallys a bit more, and I move SL to 76.55 to lock in +28 pips.
  • #77
  • Aug 16, 2020 5:25pm Aug 16, 2020 5:25pm
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Start of a new week, 17 Aug. Last week's AUDJPY longs (a small position, over the weekend) is still in play. Closing half now for +29 pips before Tokyo opens. 2nd target is the 22July high of 76.87. I opine that this AUDJJPY may be the only Yen pair that will rally. The other Yen pairs seems poised for downward movement. {image} EDIT: Tokyo just opens, AJ rallys a bit more, and I move SL to 76.55 to lock in +28 pips.
Hmm, things are moving fast this first Asia session of the week.
AJ reverse down 10pips, threatening my SL at 76.55.

Meanwhile, had place shorts for
- NJ, to hopefully break narrow channel
- GJ, as it looks like a blow out top had failed 140 twice and retreated and broke below short term rising channel
- EJ, as it looks like a blow out top, after retreating from a break-above-channel
  • #78
  • Edited 11:01pm Aug 16, 2020 10:48pm | Edited 11:01pm
Occasionally, I like to take a look at what other pairs are doing.

Below is AUDNZD, weekly chart, can see from 2013 to present
I like to open the weekly just to have a overview and to draw lines. Purple horizontal lines are significant round numbers.
AUDNZD have rally in the last 5 or 6 weeks, now nearing a established falling trendline.
If I am not wrong, back in more peaceful days, NZD central bank offers very high interest rates. More than AUD central bank.
Hence AUDNZD has been falling since 2013, (i.e, NZD strenghtening, because it is preferred more than AUD)
But with recent times of all central banks having near zero rates, "äll are equal", hence traders now look at the countries fundamentals instead.
AUD exports Gold. Ores. Food.
But hey, I am not very well verse on such things.

On a technical note, I think one can see that AUDNZD can have prolonged movements that stretched for months.
So I will not be surprised that it will burst above the trendline and continue to rocket up.
If that is the case, means traders prefer AUD, where in Bull trend the AUD will rise faster than NZD, and in bear trend the AUD will fall slower than NZD.
Also, for this pair, it does not bother by generic risk on/off of the global market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 42 KB
  • #79
  • Aug 16, 2020 11:12pm Aug 16, 2020 11:12pm
On the topic of Central Bank's interest rates, I can see interesting history in our FF calendar.
The NZD interest rates decision was last week. I clicked on the charts icon on the far right, and below is what I got
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 32 KB

Similarly, for AUD, below
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 30 KB
  • #80
  • Aug 17, 2020 4:25am Aug 17, 2020 4:25am
Quoting OxyGen_FX
{quote} Hmm, things are moving fast this first Asia session of the week. AJ reverse down 10pips, threatening my SL at 76.55.

Meanwhile, had place shorts for
- NJ, to hopefully break narrow channel
- GJ, as it looks like a blow out top had failed 140 twice and retreated and broke below short term rising channel
- EJ, as it looks like a blow out top, after retreating from a break-above-channel
AJ, price did reversHit the protective stop and close for +28 pips

NJ shorts, from 69.71. As seen using Daily chart for bigger perspective, there is no place for any nearby support.
Hence close half now, in the middle of nowhere, for +33pips, remainder, SL at BE and target lower. Wary of NY session
Attached Image


GJ shorts still in play, update later.
EJ shorts still in play, update later.
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