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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #1,001
  • Aug 2, 2020 12:45pm Aug 2, 2020 12:45pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDJPY market is generally sideways. On the monthly time frame, market operation is in a symmetrical triangle (blue). In July, it printed a relatively bearish candlestick which tested the triangle support trendline before retracing northward to the 105.850 area. The 108.000 area is technically the prevailing horizontal resistance on the monthly time frame.

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Last week, USDJPY market operation printed a long-tailed hammer-like candlestick on the weekly time frame. Looking left, it seems the candlestick print was an attempt to complete an ‘M’ pattern that began in early March. Very much likely, we can expect a further bearish reaction in the early part of this week.

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USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is now at the 105.850 area, an area which has served as a horizontal technical reaction area (i.e. S/R) several times in the recent past. It is also located in the 50/61.8 Fib zone of the downward swing from the 107.230 area on July 23. Technically, the area is susceptible to a bearish turnaround.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,002
  • Aug 2, 2020 1:08pm Aug 2, 2020 1:08pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

XAUSD market operation has broken above the 1919.60 former all-time high to create a new high around 1983.75 in June. On the monthly time frame, the market is still positively disposed.

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On the weekly time frame, after the weak bullish print of three weeks ago, market operation has printed two relatively big bullish continuation candlesticks in the last two weeks. This indicates that bulls still maintain their influence in the market.

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Price action on the daily time frame turned sideways in the last three days of last week as it entered the 1983.15/1983.75 area, which represents the prevailing horizontal resistance area. This represents the emergence of bearish pressure. Although, technically, bulls are still strongly supported, we may see an increase in bearish influence as the week unfolds. Therefore, we should watch how the market handles the 1983.15/1983.75 area in the early part of this week.

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On the H4 time frame, price action momentum is becoming flat. The candlestick prints in the last three days of last week are approximately balance in type, size, and number, but there is a slight increase in bearish pressure. Technically, we may have further sideways of price action, or even a further deep in bullish momentum, in the early part of this week.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,003
  • Aug 2, 2020 1:21pm Aug 2, 2020 1:21pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

AUDUSD market operation has been positively disposed for the past four months. On the monthly time frame, it has reached the 0.72330 area, the origin of the bearish swing in February 2019. Technically, the major market direction is southward, but bulls are still influential in the market.

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The weekly time frame shows a bullish AUDUSD market experiencing a weakness in momentum. For example, stronger bullish candlesticks were printed from mid to late May than from mid-June to July. Besides, the bullish candlestick printed last week was relatively smaller than that of two weeks ago and has an upper shadow as the market operation enters the 0.72330 technical area. We should watch how price action treats the area in the early part of this week.

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Price action on the daily time frame is still technically disposed northward with a rising trendline (red) from recent lows still in play. However, the last four days of last week witnessed an increase in bearish pressure, and Friday market closed with a bearish print after price action retested the 0.72330 horizontal resistance area. Therefore, we should not be surprised to see further bearish move in the early part of this week.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,004
  • Aug 2, 2020 1:34pm Aug 2, 2020 1:34pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

In July, EURUSD market operation on the monthly time frame broke above the high of the bullish June candlestick print with a relatively strong and bigger print. The July print broke above the 1.17460/1.18370 horizontal resistance zone which had been intact since August 2019. The July bullish market operation entered the 1.192330 area, an area that was broken down with a bearish drive in May 2018, before retracing to the former 1.18370 horizontal support area. Technically, the 1.17460/1.18370 area is still influential as a horizontal resistance. Furthermore, we should note that market operation on the monthly time frame is technically in a falling channel (red) and that it is presently at the channel resistance trendline, thus potentially susceptible to a southward turnaround.

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On the weekly time frame, the technical and order flow context in the past 10-12 weeks support bulls. However, the bullish momentum is waning as market operation entered the 1.17460/1.18370 horizontal resistance zone. The bullish candlestick printed last week surged to the multi-year horizontal resistance around 1.192330 before retracing 50% to the 1.17795 area. Technically, the 1.17795 area is susceptible to a bearish reaction and we should watch what the market does in the early art of this week.

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Within the context of the larger falling channel (red) seen on the weekly time frame, EURUSD price action on the daily time frame is in a rising channel (blue). Last week Friday it printed a bearish candlestick from the 1.192330 multi-year horizontal resistance area, after a bullish breakout of the consolidation at the 1.17000/1.17780 zone (magenta). Note that the consolidation occurred after six days of bullish continuation from a previous area of consolidation. Technically, the bearish pressure is increasing.

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Although EURUSD is experiencing an increasing bearish pressure on the H4 time frame, we may have to wait for a significant southward breakdown of the prevailing rising channel (magenta) before we can have confidence in a bearish follow-through. Personally, as a swing trader, I want to see a significant bearish breakdown of the 1.17000/1.17780 horizontal support zone (magenta).

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,005
  • Aug 2, 2020 1:50pm Aug 2, 2020 1:50pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the monthly time frame, GBPUSD market operation is within a falling triangle (blue). The July market operation printed a relatively bullish candlestick which took it from near the triangle base to the resistance trendline around the 1.31770 area before a brief retracement. The 1.31770 area has held as resistance since March 2020 and it intersected with the triangle resistance trendline. Technically the area is susceptible to a bearish reaction.

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On the weekly time frame, market operation has entered the 1.30847/1.31770 zone, which held as resistance several times in the recent past but was last visited in the first week of March. Besides, the area was the origin of the strong bearish swing in March that, within two weeks, ultimately resulted in creating an all-time low in the GBPUSD market. Technically, the area is susceptible to a bearish turnaround, but we cannot rule out at least, first, a sideways of market operation in the area in the early part of this week.

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The bearish pinbar printed last week Friday, at a significant horizontal resistance area, the 1.30847/1.31770 zone, is potentially an indication of increased bearish pressure in the GBPUSD market.

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Recent price action on the H4 time frame is within a rising channel (magenta). Last week Friday, it was sideways in the early part of the day and then entered a bullish mode to test the 1.31770 area before it retraced with a relatively bigger bearish candlestick which broke down the previous sideways. A bearish follow-through closed the last H4-session on Friday. Apparently, bears showed an increased influence in the market and may push for further bearish move this week. However, it will take a significant bearish breakdown of the rising channel (magenta) before we can have confidence in a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,007
  • Aug 8, 2020 1:48pm Aug 8, 2020 1:48pm
I have just concluded the screening of the pairs on my watch list and I will be posting my analyses on the following before market opens on Monday: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY and XAUUSD.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,008
  • Aug 9, 2020 12:37pm Aug 9, 2020 12:37pm
USDCHF Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCHF market operation on the monthly time frame maintained a bearish outlook in July when it revisited the 0.90425 multi-year horizontal support zone. The zone was last visited in May 2015 when a bullish pinbar was printed in the area. Meanwhile, the August market operation is struggling in the area and has been ambivalent, but technically bears are still supported.

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The weekly time frame shows recent market operation largely under the influence of bears. However, last week saw it printing a long doji-like candlestick. This is an indication of a decline in bearish momentum as market operation entered the 0.90425 multi-year horizontal support zone

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In the context of a bearish technical outlook on the daily time frame, price action is presently experiencing a bullish pressure. Last week Thursday and Friday, two relatively small bullish candlesticks were printed by price action. Should bulls continue their pressure in the market we may likely see a retracement to the technical zone around 0.92500/0.93200 (magenta).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,009
  • Aug 9, 2020 1:04pm Aug 9, 2020 1:04pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Having taken out the multi-year horizontal resistance around 1916.35 (magenta) in July, XAUUSD market remains disposed positively. However, the bullish move of last week was strongly influenced by bears, resulting in a bullish print with a long shadow at the upper end.


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The daily time frame shows a decline in bullish momentum. The bullish prints of last week Wednesday and Thursday were erased with a bearish drive on Friday, making the 2013.00/2074.85 zone (Sandybrown) the prevailing operating zone. Technically, price action on the daily time frame is in a sideways within a large zone, but it offers ample room for directional trading on a lower time frame within the zone.

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Market structure on the H4 time frame still favours bulls and price action is within an expanding wedge/triangle (blue). The last 4-Hr print on Friday was bullish. Given the fact that price action is presently located near the lower boundary of the 2013.00/2074.85 zone (Sandybrown) as well as near the wedge support trendline, technically a bullish setup is more likely to be feasible than a bearish setup.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,010
  • Aug 9, 2020 1:21pm Aug 9, 2020 1:21pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Generally, the USDJPY market is in consolidation. Two weeks ago, market operation printed a long-tailed, doji-like candlestick, which did not have any follow-through last week. Last week, market operation printed an indecision candlestick with some bullish tinge. Presently, the 104.150/106.530 zone (purple) is the operating zone for price action. A southward breach of the zone will likely see bears target the 104.200 technical area, but bulls are still in contention.

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On the daily time frame, presently bulls are taking price action northward within the 104.150/106.530 zone (purple). A further northward push, particularly to the 106.800 area is likely to be a completion of an emerging ‘W’ pattern, which, technically, would give way to a southward turnaround.

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Market structure on the H4 time frame still favours bears although price action momentum is bullish, apparently for a corrective move. The 106.530 horizontal resistance area is in confluence with the 78.6 Fib retracement of the bearish drop from 107.225 to 104.180. Presently, price action is located at the 61.8 Fib area, which is also a congestion area. Should bulls break out of the area, they will technically target the 78.6 Fib area, i.e. the 106.530 horizontal resistance, an area susceptible to a southward turnaround. At any rate, we should await what price action does on Monday.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,011
  • Aug 9, 2020 1:39pm Aug 9, 2020 1:39pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

For the last three months, the EURUSD market has been in a bullish mode. Presently it is seeing a sideways of market operation as it entered the 1.19000 multi-year resistance zone. On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, market operation printed a relatively big bullish candlesticks; but it has an upper shadow. Last week saw the printing of an indecision candlestick, confirming the bearish pressure that started two weeks ago. Nevertheless, despite the bearish pressure the bullish market structure on the weekly time frame has not been broken. The 1.15930/1.14970 zone (Sandybrown) is the immediate significant horizontal support.

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Technically, the EURUSD price action on the daily time frame is still more influenced by bulls than bears. On Friday it retested the prevailing horizontal support around 1.17480 before retracing northward. Besides, an inner rising trendline (blue) from recent lows is still in play, while an outer rising trendline (red) traceable to May 18, 2020 is still intact. Any bearish drive will have to contend with the 1.16900 technical area (magenta).

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Price action is consolidating on the H4 time frame. The last session on Friday ended with a bullish print. The 1.17470/1.18980 (purple) is presently the operating zone but the 1.16900 horizontal support (magenta) is a technical handle for bearish magnet/target.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,012
  • Aug 9, 2020 1:52pm Aug 9, 2020 1:52pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

On the monthly time frame, GBPUSD market operation in July printed a relatively big bullish candlestick that pierced the 1.31910 area, which is the origin of the strong bearish drop in March. Technically, the 1.31910 area is the prevailing horizontal resistance. Presently, market operation on the monthly time frame turned sideways after testing the area.

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The market operation on the weekly time frame has been bullish since it broke out of the sideways in the 1.25290/1.26730 zone (Sandybrown) three weeks ago. It retested the 1.31910 horizontal resistance area two weeks ago with a relatively strong bullish print. However, last week saw an ambivalent market operation as bulls struggled to break out of the 1.31910 area. Technically, a bearish pressure is in play.

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There is bearish pressure on the daily time frame given the ‘wicky’ candlestick prints in the last five days, and this was enhanced by the bearish print on Friday. However, technically, price action is still sideways within a horizontal channel spanned by 1.31910 and 1.29740. A significant bearish breakdown of the 1.29740 area may further embolden sellers to target lower levels, such as the 1.27730 area. This, of course, does not rule out the necessary technical corrective moves. Presently, price action is disposed bearish and located at the 1.30518 area. I will await how price action handles the 1.31910/1.29740 zone in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,013
  • Aug 15, 2020 3:16pm Aug 15, 2020 3:16pm
The GBPUSD market operation has been struggling to break out of the 1.30930/1.31900 horizontal resistance zone. I will be giving more details in the weekly analyses here before the market open on Monday. The analyses will cover the following pairs in addition to the GBPUSD: EURUSD, NZDUSD and USDCHF.

Stay safe, trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,014
  • Aug 16, 2020 12:45pm Aug 16, 2020 12:45pm
USDCHF Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCHF market operation on the monthly time frame is around the multi-year 0.90900 horizontal support area. Should the area be significantly broken down, the next horizontal support is around 0.87000 (light green).

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The order flow and recent candlestick prints on the weekly time frame favour bears.

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On the H4 time frame, the bearish drop from 0.94680 (on July 16, 2020) to 0.90550 (on July 31, 2020) retraced to near the 50 Fib retracement on August 3, 2020 before a bearish turnaround. The bearish drive on August 3, 2020 has now witnessed a 78.6 Fib retracement and price action is disposed southward. Price action is now located at the 0.90900 area and presently sideways. The 0.90900/0.90500 area represents a multi-year technical area which will have to be broken down before we can have confidence in a bearish continuation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,015
  • Aug 16, 2020 1:17pm Aug 16, 2020 1:17pm
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Update

NZDUSD market operation on the monthly time frame has rejected the 0.67300 horizontal resistance zone after the July bullish candlestick print entered the zone and retracted to below it, leaving an upper shadow. It is presently within a falling channel (red) and the interim August print is just below the channel resistance trendline.

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Presently, there is a strong bearish pressure on the weekly time frame. The candlestick prints of the past three weeks – with two bullish rejection prints and one bearish print – show a strong bearish pressure. Technically, we can expect a bearish continuation this week. The 0.64300 area is the immediate horizontal support.

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The NZDUSD price action on the H4 time frame is presently located at the 0.65410 minor horizontal support after breaking below a rising trendline (blue) traceable to May 29, 2020. However, there was a sideways of price action in the 0.65220/0.65570 area (magenta) towards the end of last week. A bearish continuation this week may see sellers initially target the 0.64300 area, which may later expose the 0.63700 handle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDH4_August 16, 2020.png Size: 44 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,016
  • Aug 16, 2020 1:33pm Aug 16, 2020 1:33pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPUSD market operation is around the 1.30930/1.31900 horizontal resistance zone. On the weekly time frame, the candlesticks printed in the past three weeks have struggled to break above the zone. In fact, there has been a sideways of market operation in the zone in the past two weeks. We should await how the market handles the area in the early part of this week.

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The 1.29600/1.31900 zone (magenta) is presently the prevailing channel for price action on the daily time frame. A significant break above the zone may see bulls target the 1.35140 horizontal resistance area created in November 2019. But a significant bearish break may expose the 1.27600 handle.

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Price action on the H4 time frame is sideways and the 1.30500/1.31300 zone (blue) has seen much of the recent ranging price action. The last candlestick prints on Friday were bearish but there is some significant bullish influence. I will be neutral on this market until my mid-week review on Tuesday/Wednesday.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,017
  • Aug 16, 2020 1:53pm Aug 16, 2020 1:53pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is still positively disposed although its momentum is weakening. On the monthly time frame, market operation is around the 1.19100 horizontal resistance area, an area from which it turned southwards in September 2018. The July candlestick print momentarily pierced the area and the interim August market operation is sideways in the area.

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On the weekly time frame, market operation is largely under the influence of bulls. Nevertheless, there is an increase in bearish pressure. The bullish candlestick printed three weeks ago has a long upper shadow while an ambivalent one was printed two weeks ago. However, the long shadow on the bullish candlestick printed last week appears to be an attempt by bulls to re-establish their influence. As the market operation is now struggling around the significant 1.19100 horizontal resistance area, we should await directional clarity in the early part of this week. The 1.17400/1.19100 zone (magenta) is the prevailing technical area for market operation.

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Technically, price action on the H4 time frame is sideways. Presently, it is just above the lower boundary of the 1.17400/1.19100 operating zone (magenta) after piercing it southwards in the early part of Friday before moving back into within the zone. A significant bearish breakdown of the zone will likely see bears target the 1.15000/1.15500 technical area (light green).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,018
  • Edited 1:24pm Aug 22, 2020 12:55pm | Edited 1:24pm
Despite the general market ambivalence on most major pairs, the USDCAD is potentially negatively disposed. I will be posting my technical analyses on the following pairs before the market open on Monday: AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDCAD.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,019
  • Aug 23, 2020 12:53pm Aug 23, 2020 12:53pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Market operation on the AUDUSD is presently around the 0.72100 horizontal resistance traceable to March 2019. On the weekly time frame, there has been sideways of market operation in the area for the past four weeks. This indicates a strong bearish pressure. Last week, a doji-like candlestick was printed in the area. Technically, the bullish momentum is weakening. The 0.69800 area is the immediate horizontal support.

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Price action on the daily time frame has rejected a rising trendline (blue) and it is presently consolidating within the 0.70850/0.72570 zone (magenta). We should await how the market handles the zone in the early part of this week. Technically, the market structure still favours bulls until a significant bearish break below the 0.69000 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,020
  • Aug 23, 2020 1:19pm Aug 23, 2020 1:19pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD market operation has been on a bullish run for the past three months. However, towards the end of July it entered the significant resistance zone, around 1.18900, traceable to June 2018. Presently, the interim candlestick print in August pierced the zone and retraced southward as market operation struggled to break above it. Technically, the 1.18900 area (magenta) is susceptible to a bearish turnaround.

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A bearish rejection candlestick was printed on the weekly time frame last week at the 1.18900 horizontal resistance area (magenta), which portends a bearish turnaround. Should bears follow-up on their intention this week, the 1.16500 horizontal support area (light green) may be an initial target.

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The technical structure on the daily time frame still favours bulls although there is strong bearish pressure with significant increase in bearish candlestick prints in the past 17 days. Presently, price action is in consolidation and a rising trendline (blue) traceable to May 2020 is still intact. It will take a significant bearish break of the trendline or the 1.16500 horizontal support area (light green) on a daily closing basis for the technical structure to support bears.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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