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Daily Trading Strategy [ADR + RSI = High Probability]

  • #241
  • Aug 6, 2020 5:08pm Aug 6, 2020 5:08pm
Quoting LDFX
{quote} I have read the whole thread. You are right, I do not have a way to accurately measure the max daily negative/ positive excursion on backtesting, but paper backtesting is still the best option. 30 pips stop anyway is absolutely unbelievable, and for a 5 minutes TF?! For a 1:1 r:r ratio the price will have to go down 50 to 100% for most major currencies while being it counter trend. A high ADR mostly means that the pair has finally broke through and is trading higher/lower. It is therefore total nonsense to aim for such huge counter excursions...
let me check out the london strategy you mentioned
"Cut your loses short and let the winners Run"
  • #242
  • Aug 6, 2020 5:10pm Aug 6, 2020 5:10pm
Quoting bopuc
Quick visual backtest from 10/2019 until 08/2020 on AU M5: - 82 times ADR was exceeded - 57 times we had and entry (RSI was OB/OS) - no trade management, SL and TP was set on entry - for RR 1:1 -> 30 wins / 27 losses (Win% 53, Total: 3R gain) - for RR 1:2 -> 26 wins / 31 losses (Win% 45%, Total: 21R gain) Usually, I like to backtest 100 trades before doing any stats but I don't have more M5 data on my platform for AU, so that's why sample size is small. Most of the wins went to 3R-5R, but there were some outliers that went 10R+. Seems to me that...
do you have a adr historical adr indicator
  • #243
  • Edited 5:38pm Aug 6, 2020 5:14pm | Edited 5:38pm
Quoting meck1
{quote} let me check out the london strategy you mentioned

Certainly worth checking, it is basically the same concept.

But it is only around the London close, where much take profit is taken leading to retracement. Also what is suggested in order to have a better r:r ratio is to get in on a retracement of the retracement for bigger returns.

Cheers,
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #244
  • Aug 6, 2020 5:16pm Aug 6, 2020 5:16pm
Quoting meck1
{quote}
Quick question, dd you factor in the Macd-trendline condition in your statistcs?

i did mention earlier in the thread about how a 1:2 risk reward ratio would be more profitable. im not suprised. Thanks for the data aswell. really wish we could use the ADR indicator to look back and back test.
I do factor in MACD LWMA - backtest was according to rules presented by OP in YouTube video.

I asked OP to add 'ADR lookback history' to the indicator if/when possible since that would help a lot with the visual test.

I exported M5 values in an Excel sheet to see when ADR is hit so I only tested days in MT4 where ADR was exceeded.
  • #245
  • Aug 6, 2020 8:25pm Aug 6, 2020 8:25pm
Quoting dacapo
{quote} false thread. go to divergence thread or open your own, please.
+++++++++++++++++++

WoW
  • #246
  • Aug 6, 2020 10:56pm Aug 6, 2020 10:56pm
Looking forward to sell USDCAD, adr is breached, waiting for RSI crossover at 0.000263.
  • #247
  • Aug 7, 2020 12:14am Aug 7, 2020 12:14am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} Well if my comments are not constructive because they are contrarian then I am sorry to hear that. You mentioned debating, this is what I am doing, you just want to close the debate because my thoughts are going against yours, guess you don’t know what debating is and have never heard of Socratism? Negative comments should be part of your learning curve otherwise you will never learn and this thread will be aseptic. Also how do you know that I have not traded it at all ? I actually did and for quite some time, that is why my first though...
Any positive idea?
Please excuse the bad English via Google Translate.
  • #248
  • Aug 7, 2020 12:48am Aug 7, 2020 12:48am
Quoting bopuc
{quote} I do factor in MACD LWMA - backtest was according to rules presented by OP in YouTube video. I asked OP to add 'ADR lookback history' to the indicator if/when possible since that would help a lot with the visual test. I exported M5 values in an Excel sheet to see when ADR is hit so I only tested days in MT4 where ADR was exceeded.
Thank you so much for helping with more clarity on the potency of this system.
If I may ask, kindly help check or probably tabulate the sessions where the winning and losing trades took place.
It might be tedious but please help sort them.
Thanks real good.
  • #249
  • Aug 7, 2020 12:59am Aug 7, 2020 12:59am
Quoting meck1
{quote} i just crosschecked the EurNzd trade you highlighted i thought i had done it well. do you mind highlighting were its supposed to be. and yea today there were alot of bad trades but thats why we do this so that we find ways to improve it.
Hi Meck

Sorry, my eyes fooled me. On a closer look I see you are correct. There was a couple yesterday that looked very close to being crossed after ADR was hit. The only thing I would say is the trade with -35pip violated your own rule of not taking trades bigger than 30 pips

Interesting to see 1:2 does so much better than 1:1. Usually it drastically decreases the win rate but doesnt seem so with Bopuc's results
  • #250
  • Aug 7, 2020 1:02am Aug 7, 2020 1:02am
Quoting bopuc
Quick visual backtest from 10/2019 until 08/2020 on AU M5: - 82 times ADR was exceeded - 57 times we had and entry (RSI was OB/OS) - no trade management, SL and TP was set on entry - for RR 1:1 -> 30 wins / 27 losses (Win% 53, Total: 3R gain) - for RR 1:2 -> 26 wins / 31 losses (Win% 45%, Total: 21R gain) Usually, I like to backtest 100 trades before doing any stats but I don't have more M5 data on my platform for AU, so that's why sample size is small. Most of the wins went to 3R-5R, but there were some outliers that went 10R+. Seems to me that...
Hi Bopuc

Thanks for sharing your results!

Would you mind doing the same for at least 1 or 2 more currency pairs? That would increase the sample size and reinforce the stats
  • #251
  • Aug 7, 2020 1:09am Aug 7, 2020 1:09am
Quoting PipBros
{quote} Hi Meck Sorry, my eyes fooled me. On a closer look I see you are correct. There was a couple yesterday that looked very close to being crossed after ADR was hit. The only thing I would say is the trade with -35pip violated your own rule of not taking trades bigger than 30 pips Interesting to see 1:2 does so much better than 1:1. Usually it drastically decreases the win rate but doesnt seem so with Bopuc's results
no problem hey, and ive been sticking strictly to the owners rules on the post to see what he saw before i implement my own rules so i havent been using my 30 pip rule or ATR take profit. im just watching that from a distance.
"Cut your loses short and let the winners Run"
  • #252
  • Aug 7, 2020 1:20am Aug 7, 2020 1:20am
Quoting Express
{quote} Thank you so much for helping with more clarity on the potency of this system. If I may ask, kindly help check or probably tabulate the sessions where the winning and losing trades took place. It might be tedious but please help sort them. Thanks real good.
Dates with win trades (at least RR 1:1) for AU.
2019.11.05
2019.11.14
2019.11.07
2019.11.19
2019.12.03
2019.12.04
2019.12.10
2020.01.03
2020.01.16
2020.01.30
2020.01.31
2020.02.05
2020.02.21
2020.03.02
2020.03.10
2020.03.13
2020.03.19
2020.04.15
2020.04.23
2020.05.12
2020.05.20
2020.06.03
2020.06.09
2020.06.10
2020.06.12
2020.06.23
2020.07.07
2020.07.15
2020.08.03
2020.08.05
  • #253
  • Aug 7, 2020 1:22am Aug 7, 2020 1:22am
Quoting PipBros
{quote} Hi Bopuc Thanks for sharing your results! Would you mind doing the same for at least 1 or 2 more currency pairs? That would increase the sample size and reinforce the stats
The plan is to cover all those with low spread on my platform. I'll publish results here in the same format, once I finish.
  • #254
  • Aug 7, 2020 2:41am Aug 7, 2020 2:41am
Quoting bopuc
{quote} Dates with win trades (at least RR 1:1) for AU. 2019.11.05 2019.11.14 2019.11.07 2019.11.19 2019.12.03 2019.12.04 2019.12.10 2020.01.03 2020.01.16 2020.01.30 2020.01.31 2020.02.05 2020.02.21 2020.03.02 2020.03.10 2020.03.13 2020.03.19 2020.04.15 2020.04.23 2020.05.12 2020.05.20 2020.06.03 2020.06.09 2020.06.10 2020.06.12 2020.06.23 2020.07.07 2020.07.15 2020.08.03 2020.08.05
Oh, thank you for this. Actually, what I wanted to work with is the time of the day each trade took place. Kindly do well to include the time, GMT or your local time zone will just suffice.

Thanks
  • #255
  • Aug 7, 2020 2:47am Aug 7, 2020 2:47am
That data I didn't track, sorry.
  • #256
  • Aug 7, 2020 3:15am Aug 7, 2020 3:15am
Quoting bopuc
That data I didn't track, sorry.

Ok, thanks thus far.
  • #257
  • Aug 7, 2020 3:21am Aug 7, 2020 3:21am
Quoting Pip Bull
{quote} Hi Meck1. I appreciate your posts and it looks like you're doing great. I think you made a mistake taking the EUR/USD short. Price did not hit the ADR high. The ADR program fixed the upper line there after price went up early in the day. Of course, the bottom ADR line was valid but the RSI was not at an extreme. PB
Hello sir please tell me the name if this indicator which shows all pairs on chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #258
  • Aug 7, 2020 3:23am Aug 7, 2020 3:23am
Guys, do your ADR lines changing positions thrue the day or they are all time in the same place?
  • #259
  • Aug 7, 2020 4:25am Aug 7, 2020 4:25am
Quoting bopuc
That data I didn't track, sorry.
If you didn't track that data how do you know which macd cross to take
  • #260
  • Aug 7, 2020 4:26am Aug 7, 2020 4:26am
Quoting laksior
Guys, do your ADR lines changing positions thrue the day or they are all time in the same place?
They change until hit
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