OxyGen FX Trading Journal

Is NFP now?? If no, then what's going on for AUD?
So, after I close AUD shorts with losses, thinking it WILL NOT come back down soon....it decided to come down ASAP within 30min.......*sweat*
OK, had I initially gone Long, it would also caught me off guard when it reverse down ASAP and I might panic and close......*also sweat*

So AUD had gone up to create a falling channel. Erm, bullish? (1hr chart)


And....as I write this....see THIS 1hr chart..... Reverse back up ASAP within 10mins.... *triple sweat*

Lets see this in detail in a 5min chart, 30pips up, then 30pips down, then 30pips up...within an hour!
I only witness such craziness during NFP.

EURJPY shorts, had stopped out at BE. After it had previously reached 1st target, it decided to run back into the wedge, maybe it felt shy to leave it's den.


Some personal thoughts, some changing of perspective on the pairs.

AUDJPY: Change perspective, maybe not 5-wave up from Mar’20 yet, maybe the consolidation Jun/July is 4th wave. When is 5th? The next critical resistance (Apr2019) might be too far away for this current overbought rally to attract..
AUDUSD: Possible 5-wave up from Mar’20, the 5th wave broke above combi above combi of 0.70 and previous major LH 0.7032, forming expanding (ending?) triangle. No nearby noteworthy critical resistance above to act as target/magnet, except maybe 0.75 figure.

EURJPY: Change perspective. Broke above 125 figure and consolidating in a rising wedge starting from late June. Next critical resistance is 127.51 (Feb2019), might be too far away for this current overbought rally.
EURUSD: Current strong multi month rally now in the middle of nowhere. The next noteworthy resistance is 1.20 figure, and might be too far away for this current overbought rally.

GBPJPY: Choppy multi-month rally trying to test to 5June’20 high (139.74) and 140.0 figure. Bigger view, GBPJPY has been in consolidation since Sep2016.
GBPUSD: Broke strongly above 130, testing combi of confluence of peaks in Mar2020 (132.00), and large falling trendline from Apr 2016. Next critical resistance 1.3515 (14Dec’19) might be too far for this current overbought rally.

NZDJPY: Hit exactly at the previous high of 71.67 (June2020)! Wow. and consolidate just below it and supported by 70. Will it still try for a more convincing 5th wave? Next resistance at 73.53 (27Dec’19) might be a bit too far away.
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up since Mar’20, 5th wave consolidating into an expanded triangle, about 100pips away from previous major LH at 0.6755 Dec2019. Price has since briefly broke below this triangle but went back in again..

USDJPY: Broke decisively below 3-month-old support of 106 and even 105 figure to reach 104.18. However, subsequent mighty 1 day rally of 187 pips back above 106 paused the downtrend.

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves from Mar2020.

NOTE: Its NFP day !!!

Long AUDJPY NZDJPY, GBPJPY. NZDUSD
One hour into Asia, when there is across the board sudden dips, and pause at short term supports. Using it as a basis to buy dips.
Also, the fresh tops that was made last few days, were all flat tops, not convincing as a "end" top.
Small Long positions, because, its already a mature rally and........ NFP tonight.
Will be nimble and close if positions turn sour.
Update later. Got things to do.

Prices went further south than what I had wished. And there was no obvious strong rebound.
I thank the lucky stars that the prices went back up a bit.
I am not proud of this series of trades. Pure luck to escape. Lucky to have used small positions.

Closed AUDJPY for -9 pip loss
Closed NZDJPY for -2 pip loss
Closed NZDUSD for +2 pips win
Close GBPJPY for +5 pips win.

Below (1hr) of of AUDJPY, NZDJPY, NZDUSD.
None for GBPJPY as I have accidentally closed it.

Today is NFP day.
It will cause whipsaws.
I will stand aside without any position, and watch this circus.

I will not guess what direction NFP will affect. The market is a weird place with weird reactions.
This whole week, when USA have good data, US/London session will have optimism and buy Majors (Majors will rally)
When USA have bad data, the same marketeers will dump and sell US currency. Which also means Majors will rally.
And when there no data, Majors will just rally.
This makes no sense and also make perfect sense, as long as you subscribe to a particular view.

I will avoid having any positions before, or riding into, NFP.
As the market is in a mature up trend, with GBPUSD and NZDUSD very close with reaching their previous LH mere 150pips away, there is a good chance that the market will use NFP to push them higher just for a short while.
But as said, since the market is in a mature up trend, NFP may just sink it ASAP.
During NFP +/- 5mins, the spreads will increase, making trade entry unprofitable. Even sell/buy orders will be affected by the increased spread.
Oanda spread for EURUSD can easily widen to 15 or 20 pips for that 10min period, and will only sowly return to normal at about 10mins later. By then, it is sometimes to later for good entry.

But hey, for all you know, maybe NFP does.....nothing. LOL !

Looks like NFP is no non event during the 10mins of its release. There are price action in the past few days that cause more whipsaws!
Looking at the chart from a pure price perspective, EURUSD touch bottom of trendline and only had a weak bounce.

Short EURUSD


EDIT: Aim for 1.1775, but chicken out at this point, close half

Short EURJPY, closed half +50pipsShort
AUDUSD, close half +25 pips

Close all the leftover half positions for AUD, EURJPY and EURUSD.

Reason being that I forgot to factor in these things
1. The size of the Daily Candle. It is already quite long, compared to the rest of the past 30 candles (see below EURUSD as example)
2. Today is already the last session of the week. Volumes will drop after NY lunch, and may see whipsaw or weird moves during low volumes. on purpose by crafty traders.
3. Also not to hold trade over the weekends.

A single large bear Daily candle does not make a bear trend.

The Majors and Yen pairs still have possibility to continue Bull trend by morphing current bearish situations (e.g "broke below trendline") into bullish channels and flags.

Next week, Monday will be interesting to see Asia's reaction to this NFP.
Wed is NZ cash rates, US CPI. Thurs is AUD employment. Friday is US core retail sales.

AUDJPY: 5 waves up from Mar’20? But the 5th wave (22June) is only 8 pips, and might possibly be non-valid and that everything is still in the 4th wave. The next critical resistance (Apr2019) seem too far away (400pips) for this current overbought rally.
AUDUSD: Possible 5-wave up from Mar’20, the 5th wave broke strongly above combi of 0.70 and previous major LH 0.7032, forming expanding (ending?) triangle. The next critical resistance is the 0.75 figure.

EURJPY: Broke below a 3-week rising wedge and below 125. Beware that it is still possible to form a rising // channel.
EURUSD: Price dip after creating new high on 7Aug which is only 80pips shy of 1.20 figure. It also dip below a rising trendline, but beware that it is still possible to form a rising // channel.

GBPJPY: Choppy 4-month old rally trying to re-test 5June’20 high (139.74) and 140.0 figure. Currently consolidate for 5 days in a 150pip flag, which is usually bullish.
GBPUSD: Unable to push above combi of confluence of peaks in Mar2020 (132.00), and large falling trendline from Apr 2016. Currently consolidating for 5 days in a 170pips flag, which is usually bullish.

NZDJPY: Hit exactly at the previous high of 71.67 (June2020)! Wow. and consolidate just below it and supported by 70. Will it still try for a more convincing 5th wave? Next resistance at 73.53 (27Dec’19) might be a bit too far away.
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up since Mar’20, 5th wave forming an expanded triangle, about 100pips away from previous major LH at 0.6755 Dec2019. Price has since briefly broke below this triangle but went back in again, supported by 0.7 figure and rising trendline..

USDJPY: Broke decisively below 3-month-old support of 106 and even 105 figure to reach 104.18. However, subsequent mighty 1 day rally of 187 pips back above 106 paused the downtrend.

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves from Mar2020.

Bearish or Bullish?
Examples. EURJPY, broke below rising wedge (yellow lines) is very bearish. But price can also morph into possible Bullsih channel (green lines).


Example: GBPUSD, broke below short term rising trendline is very bearish. But price can also morph into possible bullish flag (green colour lines)

Good day to the start of the week, to those who trades the Asia hours.
NFP made a big dip last week, and now Monday pre-Asia made gain back up some.

Short EURUSD cautiously at 1.1790, aiming for 1755, and 1715.
If it ever goes down, and I be glad, and will see reaction at 1755 and 1715.

Lucky to reach 1st target. Closed half for 30pips.
If the bounce here is weak, there will be more hope for 2nd target.
The channel is just a postulation, a reference point for possible 2nd target. Hope it happens, but also may not.

Short NZDUSD, target 0.65 figure.
Price does not seem to want to test the 0.6750 zones anymore.
Instead, it has been pushing down and testing 0.6584 again and again, which is incidentally a support and also top of wave-4th.
Also, it seemed to have broke below rising line.
(see below Daily chart, for perspective and context)

Short GBPUSD. Last week NFP has push the pair down hard, but still supported by 1.30.
1.32 zone is still a strong magnet.
Although supported by 1.30, the bounce there is weak during Asia. Subsequent push down by London to 1.30 again, the rejection rally is quick, but not sustaining.
1.30 will eventually break when all orders there are triggered and nothing left.

Had Short EURJPY based on the above. Closed now for +31pips, respecting the possible channel.

The GBPUSD short trade is still in progress. Or should I say, price not moving last 12 hours. Hopes it goes down so that I can profit.

Short AUDUSD, aim for lower boundary of expanding triangle.
Yesterday US session push it up to 7184, and promptly rejected down again, which I feel is Bearish market pressure

London about to open. Will see if I can grab a few more pips, if not, will close at this level for about 55pips
Will respect the possible channel and also the higher-low of 1698, to see if there is any bounce.

Close loss of abt 35pips.
GBPUSD rally hard and I closed with reference to previous NY high of 1.31.
It is now dangerously close to the magnetic 1.32 zone, which for me is risky to trade.

Close with loss of abt 35pips
Subsequent sessions kept pushing it up, and now I cannot decipher what is going on. Will stand aside.

Time for me to do the usual market overview, to get some clarity for myself.
My recent bad trades can be partly due to laziness to see the big picture and did not notice the tide have changed.
Or maybe I should trade a bigger timeframe instead?

It would seemed that Majors are all strengthening, which means there is broadbase USD weakness.
Yen crosses are all rising, which might influence and pull up Majors.
For most Majors, they are already in a mature rally, with many war-cries for correction, or even outright reversal down.
Hence it is risky to go Long.
And it is risky to go short, as prices are still technically in up-trend.


AUDJPY: 5 waves up from Mar’20? But the 5th wave (22June) is only 8 pips, and might possibly be non-valid and that everything is still in the 4th wave. Price closing in to test this alleged 5th wave, now only 70ips away.
AUDUSD: Possible 5-wave up from Mar’20, 5th wave forming expanding and current leg seems to attempt to test top of triangle. The next critical resistance is the 0.75 figure.

EURJPY: Broke below a 3-week rising wedge and below 125, but prices seemed to respect a rising channel, which may prove bullish.
EURUSD: Price formed a (slightly rising) channel, with base near 1.17, a previous (minor) HL. Current leg respected the lower line of channel and rise back into the middle. Which may prove bullish.

GBPJPY: Choppy 4-month old rally trying to re-test 5June’20 high (139.74) and 140.0 figure. Currently consolidate for 7 days in a slightly rising channel, which looks more bullish than a possible triple top.
GBPUSD: After a failed attempt to push above combi of confluence of peaks in Mar2020 (132.00), and large falling trendline from Apr 2016, it is currently trying again.

NZDJPY: Hit exactly at the previous high of 71.67 (June2020)! Wow. and consolidate just below it and supported by 70, for 9 days already. Big move soon? Re-test 5th wave? Next resistance at 73.53 (27Dec’19) might be a bit too far away.
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up since Mar’20, 5th wave forming an expanded triangle, about 100pips away from previous major LH at 0.6755 Dec2019. Price has since briefly broke below this triangle but went back in again, supported by 0.7 figure, and broke below rising trendline. If there is no fall, then likely prices will move sideways.

USDJPY: Broke decisively below 3-month-old support of 106 and even 105 figure to reach 104.18. However, subsequent mighty 1 day rally of 187 pips back above 106 paused the downtrend.

Had shorted the Majors. Will be watch out for bounce at trendline and whole number supports.




Shorted NZDUSD, and note NZD cash rates at 10am Asia.
Technically, it has broke below 0.6585 support, and also below 5 month old rising line. Target 0.65