DislikedIt's really historic how the self proclaimed experts were caught with pants down with last NFP's report. It's still one shot though, now we have to track the other numbers to get a confirmation of a quick recovery. But what had happened these last months could at the end only be a one time statistical anomaly driven by the WW lockdown. Reopening is obviously not enough, confidence is the key, next business sentiment and consumer spending prints are going to be more interesting than ever. => In any case, monetary policy wise, that report is enough...Ignored
Swing Trading only - All Markets
- #263
- Edited Jul 25, 2020 5:12am Jul 24, 2020 1:12pm | Edited Jul 25, 2020 5:12am
Hello FF,
Summer time good ?
May 22nd
+ : Final 1.164x was ticked today
May 26th
+ 
May 27th
May 28th
on second attempt at July European Council
June 4th
Insane call. Super on second attempt at July European Council
June 5th
Retrace via Joyous NFP & unchanged FED & then up again ahead of European Council
but called trade for the retrace flopped badly
(looks very like bad luck for the STP though)
IN ANY CASE :
1) As a wrap up :
2) And as the big picture :
Market has just set a MT BOTTOM today (that seldom happens as chart shows)
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EXTRA SUMMER BONUS :
May 20th
MT Swing's TP1 36.8x hit in EURTHB from 34.8x
For those not used to the pair, it's <=> to 600+ pips in EURUSD
see you soon !
Summer time good ?
May 22nd
{quote} About EURO's FA : M&M's €500bns recovery fund's proposal if accepted will be a paradigm shift for European Union. Flow we've seen this week in EURUSD is nothing compared to what will happen once/if the proposal is accepted. It's only the beginning, EU bonds are going to be a game changer. It's not reported in FF's calendar, but next week we have an important date on that topic on May 27th : European Commission is expected to unveil their recovery plan that day. =>...
{quote} ... Then for the final agreement, we willl have European Council on June 18th/19th. So far, 4 countries are against the proposal : Denmark, Sweden, Austria and Netherlands [...] => Denmark & Sweden are very soft resistances => Austria : Sebastian Kurz is very vocal lately but if he blocks the plan he will lose his coalition as Austria's greens are backing the proposal. So he looks pretty tied. => Netherlands are the only strong resistance I see. But they will end very isolated so that doesn't look like...
{quote} and 1.089x held on H4, held on D1 and held on W1 ............................................................................... => 1.089x is reversal on H4 (cf. chart below) => 1.089x is rejection of the lows on D1 (cf. chart below) => 1.089x is a double rejection of the lows on W1 (cf. chart below) even if it's an inner one as we are trading inside bars in this TF A super bullish combo. 1.089x is definitely the flip on the FA side for EURUSD :...
{quote} I had already ST longs loaded to aim the ST Top from today : {quote} but I have added, pulling the trigger for the MT play discussed the other day, following that W1 bullish close : {quote} To wrap up : ST play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115xSTP 1.079x MT play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x Let's see what is going to happen...
+ : Final 1.164x was ticked todayMay 26th
{quote} We are on the brink of a momentum leg...... 1.089x was the retrace.It's Mutti herself who has opened the door to EU bonds. As said last week, this is a game changer for European Union, a paradigm shift. A new step towards full integration. Most of FF's board haven't get it yet. The only explanation I see it's because US/UK culture prevails here, hence very few knowledge of EU institutions. I'm going to make a bold call : we will never see 1.089x in 2020 This said, up to you...
+ May 27th
{quote} EURUSD is going to blow up Been a long time I haven't wait for Asia session so much Only valid entry for late bulls is @ 1.0954 {image} For the record, ongoing trades in EURUSD : {quote} ST play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.099x TP2 1.105x TP3 1.115x STP 1.079x MT play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x quick reminder : Van der leyden's European commission will unveil their recovery plan tomorrow
May 28th
{quote}...=> European Commission has unveiled their recovery plan and it includes fully M&M's proposal. [...] beyond the economical move, it's a political move that Van der Leyden has made [...] Final agreement of the 27 members is expected by next European Council (18-19 June) : {quote} Rumours are ..... it's a done deal. Basically, the 4 countries that are a bit reluctant are just going to try to renegotiate their EU contribution...
on second attempt at July European CouncilJune 4th
{quote} ... Final target @ 1.164x needs the official "go" from European Council for EU bonds : next meeting - meaning first chance - to take place by next 18-19 June To sum up, portfolio : was long from 1.089x to 1.120x was fully hedged from 1.120x to 1.127x was short from 1.127x to 1.131x and is now long again from 1.131x {image}
on second attempt at July European CouncilJune 5th
...I will look for a retrace swing for upcoming FED before uptrend resumes in EURUSD via next European Council. That's not far from what I had initially planned actually except it was via an hedge. This time only standalone trades. Tonight, I have listened again to Christine's conference and it's very hard to picture a direct leg to 1.164x. There is something wrong. Dollar squezze is the only valid explanation I have. EURUSD H4 Map {image} EURUSD D1 Map {image} US DOLLAR Index Map {image}
{quote} ... => Looking for shorts now ahead of next FED to ride a retrace before uptrend resumes ahead of European Council. ... {image}
{quote} unchanged FED at next Wenesday's FOMC is guaranteed after today's NFP print Trying a retrace swing in EURUSD from here => Short filled @ 1.131x TP1 1.123x TP2 1.115x TP3 1.109x STP 1.139x
& then up again ahead of European Council but called trade for the retrace flopped badly
(looks very like bad luck for the STP though)IN ANY CASE :
1) As a wrap up :
2) And as the big picture :
Market has just set a MT BOTTOM today (that seldom happens as chart shows)
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EXTRA SUMMER BONUS :
May 20th
{quote} Regarding EURTHB, I just pulled the trigger for the MT/LT swing , a very very long play/ride hopefully Bought EURTHB @ 34.8x TP1 36.8x TP2 39.0x STP 33.8x {image} insane call
MT Swing's TP1 36.8x hit
in EURTHB from 34.8xFor those not used to the pair, it's <=> to 600+ pips in EURUSD
see you soon !
Inserted Video
- #264
- Jul 26, 2020 10:32am Jul 26, 2020 10:32am
FF board 2 months ago ...
... and now - after the fact on top - FF board is calling for 1.20 in EURUSD, pushed by some analysts widely advertised in FF's news section (???) ...
Sure, thin summer markets ending 24th of August can always offer a wild card, but what's the point of aiming/hoping to trade a wick on low liquidity ???
Trying to trade the exhaustion of the move after the fact, after not even being able to ride the core of the swing on expectations from the bottom, that's what some are doing right now ...
Between this and all the "TP open/STP open" trades (aka I have no clue what I am doing) ...... What do all these imposters, self-proclaimed succesful people but who are surprisingly glued to their screens 24/7/365 here, want at the end ??? With this peculiarity to always forget to quote their bad trades on top ?
What was the highlight of July ?
The EU Bonds ? Nope. Way was completely paved since late May as wrap up in previous post showed. There is no more swing in play in EURUSD, just a wide chop zone, a few hundred pips wide, in play until US elections :
ST Map : BOTTOM 1.116x ---> FLIP 1.142x <--- TOP 1.170x
MT Map : BOTTOM 1.083x ---> FLIP 1.116x <--- TOP 1.162x
Highlight were the brexit talks (not covered by the medias .........)
-> restricted round of negociations in Brussels 29 June - 3 July
-> informal talks in London 7 July - 9 July
-> 6th round of negociations in London 20 July - 23 July
Results :
=> Michel Barnier's team über pessimistic
=> David Frost's team über pessimistic
(their respective statements always look like a contest of understatements. Very funny to read)
=> a large majority of UK ministers don't believe in a deal
=> a very large majority of EU members don't believe in a deal (with the new EU Bonds mechanism aiding the digestion ...)
Core principle of Brexit & Core principle of EU are just incompatible : It was obvious by construction since the beginning, as first one was built as the opposite of the second one.
=> Meaning there are now only 4 months and a half left (next round of negociations being sheduled in mid-august) to find an impossible solution before UK trades with EU under WTO rules .............. => ENJOY THE NOISE in September, October, November, December....
All this to say, there are far better trades to look for on the board, than trading an hypothetical wick in EURUSD in thin summer days, pushed by some dubious characters here ......
=> Trying to load a decent position in GBPJPY, GBPUSD and EURGBP should be the main occupation in August before the noise and the MT swings start imo .....
Targets on the Pound :
(Not synch targets btw. Might look surreal now I agree)
GBPJPY ==> 119.xx
GBPUSD ==> 1.11xx
EURGBP ==> 1.03xx
Enjoy the end of the summer.
Take a walk on the swing side : there is no need to be glued to the screens to make money in trading.
Watch out for imposters.
{quote} While most of FF's board look lost and are still looking for shorts, EURUSD is hinting a daily roll in imminent break up area No comment {image}
{quote} ... this is a game changer for European Union, a paradigm shift. A new step towards full integration. Most of FF's board haven't get it yet. The only explanation I see it's because US/UK culture prevails here, hence very few knowledge of EU institutions. ...
... and now - after the fact on top - FF board is calling for 1.20 in EURUSD, pushed by some analysts widely advertised in FF's news section (???) ...
Sure, thin summer markets ending 24th of August can always offer a wild card, but what's the point of aiming/hoping to trade a wick on low liquidity ???
Trying to trade the exhaustion of the move after the fact, after not even being able to ride the core of the swing on expectations from the bottom, that's what some are doing right now ...
Between this and all the "TP open/STP open" trades (aka I have no clue what I am doing) ...... What do all these imposters, self-proclaimed succesful people but who are surprisingly glued to their screens 24/7/365 here, want at the end ??? With this peculiarity to always forget to quote their bad trades
on top ?What was the highlight of July ?
The EU Bonds ? Nope. Way was completely paved since late May as wrap up in previous post showed. There is no more swing in play in EURUSD, just a wide chop zone, a few hundred pips wide, in play until US elections :
ST Map : BOTTOM 1.116x ---> FLIP 1.142x <--- TOP 1.170x
MT Map : BOTTOM 1.083x ---> FLIP 1.116x <--- TOP 1.162x
Highlight were the brexit talks (not covered by the medias .........)
-> restricted round of negociations in Brussels 29 June - 3 July
-> informal talks in London 7 July - 9 July
-> 6th round of negociations in London 20 July - 23 July
Results :
=> Michel Barnier's team über pessimistic
=> David Frost's team über pessimistic
(their respective statements always look like a contest of understatements. Very funny to read)
=> a large majority of UK ministers don't believe in a deal
=> a very large majority of EU members don't believe in a deal (with the new EU Bonds mechanism aiding the digestion ...)
Core principle of Brexit & Core principle of EU are just incompatible : It was obvious by construction since the beginning, as first one was built as the opposite of the second one.
=> Meaning there are now only 4 months and a half left (next round of negociations being sheduled in mid-august) to find an impossible solution before UK trades with EU under WTO rules .............. => ENJOY THE NOISE in September, October, November, December....
All this to say, there are far better trades to look for on the board, than trading an hypothetical wick in EURUSD in thin summer days, pushed by some dubious characters here ......
=> Trying to load a decent position in GBPJPY, GBPUSD and EURGBP should be the main occupation in August before the noise and the MT swings start imo .....
Targets on the Pound :
(Not synch targets btw. Might look surreal now I agree)
GBPJPY ==> 119.xx
GBPUSD ==> 1.11xx
EURGBP ==> 1.03xx
Enjoy the end of the summer.
Take a walk on the swing side : there is no need to be glued to the screens to make money in trading.
Watch out for imposters.
Hello FF,
Have you enjoyed the beach today ?
That was my map last sunday with a ST Top that was coming from last September 2018
And these last 3 days, price has been building, and still is, a fresh ST TOP at the exact same level : 1.170x
Yes yes I know price is trading above but, PA wise & Swing wise, ST Top is below ................................
My cheat sheet to play a retrace or even a reversal :
=> Aggressive play : Sell now @ 1.178x for TP1 1.158x TP2 1.143x
=> Safe play : Sell the breakdown of ST TOP @ 1.170x for TP1 1.158x TP2 1.143x (or even smarter : sell the retrace to that breakdown)
Invalidation/STP : if Price breaks up the highs (a break not a breach)
Have you enjoyed the beach today ?
... ST Map : BOTTOM 1.116x ---> FLIP 1.142x <--- TOP 1.170x
That was my map last sunday with a ST Top that was coming from last September 2018And these last 3 days, price has been building, and still is, a fresh ST TOP at the exact same level : 1.170x
Yes yes I know price is trading above but, PA wise & Swing wise, ST Top is below ................................
My cheat sheet to play a retrace or even a reversal :
=> Aggressive play : Sell now @ 1.178x for TP1 1.158x TP2 1.143x
=> Safe play : Sell the breakdown of ST TOP @ 1.170x for TP1 1.158x TP2 1.143x (or even smarter : sell the retrace to that breakdown)
Invalidation/STP : if Price breaks up the highs (a break not a breach)
- #266
- Edited 3:49pm Jul 30, 2020 2:56pm | Edited 3:49pm
......... My cheat sheet to play a retrace or even a reversal : => Aggressive play : Sell now @ 1.178x for TP1 1.158x TP2 1.143x => Safe play : Sell the breakdown of ST TOP @ 1.170x for TP1 1.158x TP2 1.143x (or even smarter : sell the retrace to that breakdown) Invalidation/STP : if Price breaks up the highs (a break not a breach)
ST Map & call in EURUSD are outdated now
following the ongoing break upMove is not anymore related to Euro but all to US Dollar in thin summer days, there is nobody on the buy side in DXY
If 1.181x doesn't hold for the W close, my MT Map will be wiped out as well, with MT TOP moving then from 1.162x to 1.191x
For the record, LT extrem sits at 1.215x
.... => Trying to load a decent position in GBPJPY, GBPUSD and EURGBP should be the main occupation in August before the noise and the MT swings start imo ..... Targets on the Pound : (Not synch targets btw. Might look surreal now I agree) GBPJPY ==> 119.xx GBPUSD ==> 1.11xx EURGBP ==> 1.03xx Enjoy the end of the summer. Take a walk on the swing side : there is no need to be glued to the screens to make money in trading. Watch out for imposters.
=> Trigger pulled in GBPJPY today for the MT swing :
A long ride hopefully ...
Sell GBPJPY @ 137.2x TP1 132.2 TP2 126.2 TP3 120.2x STP 139.2x
Min r:r 2:5
Max r:r 2:17
- #267
- Edited 12:54am Jul 31, 2020 12:41am | Edited 12:54am
{quote} ST Map & call in EURUSD are outdated now
- #268
- Edited 7:10pm Jul 31, 2020 6:12pm | Edited 7:10pm
{quote} ... Trigger pulled in GBPJPY today for the MT swing : A long ride hopefully ... Sell GBPJPY @ 137.2x TP1 132.2 TP2 126.2 TP3 120.2x STP 139.2x Min r:r 2:5 Max r:r 2:17
A MT swing call wiped out in 1 day only ..........
- 200 pips
max drawup = + 40 pips
with on top an awful STP, hit to the tick and down we went ...
{quote} Thats one bold call. Do you have a level for GU? I've been patiently waiting for it. Other Yen Crosses seems will also give the swing down. not just GU GJ
still aiming a couple of thousand pips on GJ & GU though, will try later, but ideally before WTO brexit starts to make the headlines (end of August/early Sept ?), as momentum leg will leave very few chances to jump in
{quote}... If 1.181x doesn't hold for the W close, my MT Map will be wiped out as well, with MT TOP moving then from 1.162x to 1.191x For the record, LT extrem sits at 1.215x
On a side note, 1.191x was completely unveiled today (and heavily sold)
- #269
- Edited 7:11pm Jul 31, 2020 6:21pm | Edited 7:11pm
... MT Swing's TP1 36.8x hit
It looks set for a retrace
Remaining longs hedged @ 36.8x TP1 36.3x TP2 35.8x
While USDTHB has closed bullish to me by holding 31.2x
but sideline on this one
- #270
- Jul 31, 2020 10:15pm Jul 31, 2020 10:15pm
{quote} It's probably impossible to make a worse call : A MT swing call wiped out in 1 day only ..........
I think EG will be a better candidate for the swing this time since sentiment will clearly diverge.
{quote} ... MT wise, flop to hold 1.181x last friday has left 1.162x naked for a test. While ST wise, breaking down 1.171x will set a ST Top and will unlock 1.158x (new ST Flip) max 1.142x as a retrace 1.142x is FA level : the vote of Van der Leyden's plan + TA level : new ST Bottom following last (unexpected) break up
meaning we should not break July highs in the ST
H4 map I have :
H4 Bottom 1.142x ==> H4 Flip 1.159x <== H4 Top 1.179x
Which means everything above 1.179x is cheap to play either some chop in the highs (pure scalp) or further retrace (swing play to 1.159x max 1.142x)
1.185x is extrem and should cap any flow popping there imo
MT Wise :
{quote}... 1.181x has held the W close in EURUSD => meaning MT Map remains unchanged, we are going to see 1.162x ... On a side note, 1.191x was completely unveiled today (and heavily sold)
{quote} EU broke down 1.171.x on H4, we have our Top ... meaning we should not break July highs in the ST H4 map I have : H4 Bottom 1.142x ==> H4 Flip 1.159x <== H4 Top 1.179x Which means everything above 1.179x is cheap to play either some chop in the highs (pure scalp) or further retrace (swing play to 1.159x max 1.142x) 1.185x is extrem and should cap any flow popping there imo {image} MT Wise : {quote} 1.162x still wide open for a test
Meanwhile in GU
if one didn't sell the double combo SH rejection + LH resistance @ 1.310x .............................
GU is now slowly starting to build a top ; last fresh break down @ 1.300x has just officialy unlocked the reversal level sitting @ 1.291x
with plenty of targets waiting below @ 1.282x, 1.273x & 1.266x
if one didn't sell the double combo SH rejection + LH resistance @ 1.310x .............................
GU is now slowly starting to build a top ; last fresh break down @ 1.300x has just officialy unlocked the reversal level sitting @ 1.291x
with plenty of targets waiting below @ 1.282x, 1.273x & 1.266x