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FX investing: mid/long term ideas

  • #101
  • Jul 27, 2020 5:15am Jul 27, 2020 5:15am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I would say longs are pumping the euro, and they are pumping it up at a very dangerous pace Look below {image}Euro index : Assets managers are very long, even more long at the top... {image}EURUSD COT asset managers : Pumping longs at a level never seen before, watch out {image}Weekly system is saying its going up too much...i wouldn't go long on weekly based on that
yes, i'm waiting for reversal.
  • #102
  • Jul 27, 2020 7:06am Jul 27, 2020 7:06am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} I would say longs are pumping the euro, and they are pumping it up at a very dangerous pace Look below {image}Euro index : Assets managers are very long, even more long at the top... {image}EURUSD COT asset managers : Pumping longs at a level never seen before, watch out {image}Weekly system is saying its going up too much...i wouldn't go long on weekly based on that
Couldn't agree more, I've built up a series of COT analysis excel which learned from your posts (Thank you very much for sharing your experience and knowledge), it said Dealer and Asset manager are in seriously extreme zone, major retracement or reversal maybe on its way.
  • #103
  • Aug 1, 2020 7:25am Aug 1, 2020 7:25am
GBP index / money managers

Money managers are increasing their bearish bet, a lot
When they did it a few weeks ago, at the same rate, 7 weeks of short increase in a row, price dropped (550 pips weekly high/low range)

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #104
  • Aug 1, 2020 7:29am Aug 1, 2020 7:29am
USD index / Money managers

Money managers are going all in long, more than 60%.
Don't be against them on this bottom

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #105
  • Aug 1, 2020 9:48am Aug 1, 2020 9:48am
Quoting kuroro001
USD index / Money managers Money managers are going all in long, more than 60%. Don't be against them on this bottom {image}
so. it means USD will get stronger?
  • #106
  • Aug 1, 2020 10:12am Aug 1, 2020 10:12am
Quoting General Lee
{quote} so. it means USD will get stronger?
Yes, MM just turned bullish this week, they have been buying the fall
Dealers are still net long, and Asset managers just turned bearish (after such a fall its dangerous)

Euro is increasing their bearish bet
GBP as well
JPY as well
CHF as well

Now lets see
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #107
  • Edited 1:59pm Aug 1, 2020 1:45pm | Edited 1:59pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Yes, MM just turned bullish this week, they have been buying the fall Dealers are still net long, and Asset managers just turned bearish (after such a fall its dangerous) Euro is increasing their bearish bet GBP as well JPY as well CHF as well Now lets see
The Currencies you are saying is increasing as well is it who (the dealers, MM ,AM or who) that the increment is of or based on.
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #108
  • Aug 2, 2020 2:21am Aug 2, 2020 2:21am
Quoting skyf
{quote}The Currencies you are saying is increasing as well is it who (the dealers, MM ,AM or who) that the increment is of or based on.
EUR dealers are massively short
GBP short side of the money managers are going very short
CHF/JPY dealers are very shorts too (while assets managers aka the dumb money are going long all in)

But its been like that for a few weeks already for the CHF/JPY....hence the big JPY bounce, waiting for more
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #109
  • Edited 9:46am Aug 2, 2020 8:09am | Edited 9:46am
GBP dealers have to be more short than last week for a fall in GBPUSD to be valid right?
Without despair & distraught, focus on Patience to FRESH MOTiVES.
  • #110
  • Aug 4, 2020 3:41am Aug 4, 2020 3:41am
Quoting skyf
GBP dealers have to be more short than last week for a fall in GBPUSD to be valid right?
Not necessary, but whenever they add more short, move is stronger
They have been increasing their shorts strongly lately
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #111
  • Aug 4, 2020 7:24am Aug 4, 2020 7:24am
Quoting kuroro001
Dumb money... {image}
I quote from GBPUSD forum , "Dumb Money" is it dumb money long GBPUSD? correct me if I am wrong

Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Not necessary, but whenever they add more short, move is stronger They have been increasing their shorts strongly lately
, and this quote ,smart money is shorting GBP ?
correct me if I am wrong
god speed..long journey a head
  • #112
  • Aug 4, 2020 9:51am Aug 4, 2020 9:51am
Quoting FXPraga
{quote} I quote from GBPUSD forum , "Dumb Money" is it dumb money long GBPUSD? correct me if I am wrong {quote} , and this quote ,smart money is shorting GBP ? correct me if I am wrong
Dumb money is still net short, but they are clearing off their net short trades
Assets managers are going less and less short, Hedge funds are going very short
Dealers are still net long, but cooling off quickly

It could lead to a drop in gbp prices
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #113
  • Aug 8, 2020 9:46am Aug 8, 2020 9:46am
EURO, USD, EURUSD analysis

I'll throw here a few charts from the EURO index, USD index, and mix them for EURUSD

Attached Image
Euro money managers are net longs for the first time since 2018. Net long after 1300 pips rise ? smart or dumb idea?

Attached Image
Here is a chart from the short side of the money managers, they are very low loaded, dumb money is not seeing any shorts

Attached Image
Here is a chart from the USD dealers. Dealers are still buying dollars as countepart (mostly dumb money) is pouring into shorts

Attached Image
USD assets managers are net shorts on bottom ? I don't want to follow them

Attached Image
USD hedge funds are net long still, not very much loaded though. But if we look at the long side only (i have put a chart last week) then you can see long side is very loaded

Attached Image
EURUSD hedge funds, are net short on top, possibly a smart move here

Attached Image
The most interesting chart is the assets managers one, they are net short on top, same as when it fell hard before

Stay tuned
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #114
  • Aug 8, 2020 10:26am Aug 8, 2020 10:26am
Dollars bears to worry ?

Attached Image
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #115
  • Aug 15, 2020 4:35am Aug 15, 2020 4:35am
Quoting kuroro001
Dollars bears to worry ? {image}
Hi kuroro, if you are planning to update the report would you be able to do gbp/usd and usd/jpy? Many thanks
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #116
  • Aug 15, 2020 10:06am Aug 15, 2020 10:06am
GBPUSD analysis

Here are a few chart for the gbpusd this week

Attached Image
Dealers are cooling off all their long bet, its still net long. But it doesn't need to be net short to see a drop
So watch out here

Attached Image
Assets managers are net long, for the past 4 years, a net long position always lead to a drop in price as Assets managers are too loaded on the buy side

Attached Image
Money managers are flat. One thing to see though. They were super short 2 weeks ago, probably the reason it didn't rise. They just closed their short bet, and price still didn't rise. Maybe a drop shall happen as its dumb money
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #117
  • Aug 15, 2020 10:07am Aug 15, 2020 10:07am
USDJPY analysis

Attached Image
USDJPY dealers are very net long, it means the retailers/dumb money is selling. An imminent rise is on the cards

Attached Image
Assets managers are very short, don't hold the bag once they unload all....

Attached Image
Nothing to see here, hedge funds are doing nothing. They are lost
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #118
  • Aug 15, 2020 10:08am Aug 15, 2020 10:08am
Quoting Bacco
{quote} Hi kuroro, if you are planning to update the report would you be able to do gbp/usd and usd/jpy? Many thanks
Done, above

Hope it helps
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #119
  • Aug 15, 2020 10:34am Aug 15, 2020 10:34am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Done, above Hope it helps
Thanks a lot, always very helpful, it looks like you know how to interpretate, i would like to learn how
Twitter: Rummer_grapes
  • #120
  • Aug 15, 2020 3:16pm Aug 15, 2020 3:16pm
Quoting kuroro001
EURO, USD, EURUSD analysis I'll throw here a few charts from the EURO index, USD index, and mix them for EURUSD {image}Euro money managers are net longs for the first time since 2018. Net long after 1300 pips rise ? smart or dumb idea? {image}Here is a chart from the short side of the money managers, they are very low loaded, dumb money is not seeing any shorts {image}Here is a chart from the USD dealers. Dealers are still buying dollars as countepart (mostly dumb money) is pouring into shorts {image}USD assets managers are net shorts on bottom...
Many thanks, what I see from above AU NU and GU taking the beating while EU to remain above 1.17. EG and UJ to break north in the near future.
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