DislikedI made these 2 indicators, first one shows todays persentages and second one shows history, for FXCM and AXI MT4 {image} {image}Ignored
thank you for the help.
Regards
leacher
Time & Price Forecast - Jenkins
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DislikedSome of you are confused so I will clarify. These lines are nothing more than .25% .50% .75% 1% of the days move (from the open) above or below the market. We know for a mathematical fact that the market stays/closes within a plus or minus .50% move 85% of the time. SEE MY PREVIOUS POST WITH 1 year DATA SPREADSHEET ^^^ Your entire trading strategy and most importantly your Money Management rules should all be built off this fact. I specifically use these levels for calculating risk because if the market stays within the plus or minus .50% range...Ignored
Disliked{quote} LDFX Either you are being smart or stupid, I do not which one. I told you to contact a person for ACCESS to a live trading room where I can show you how to obtain 1-2% every single day. I was not talking about that waste of time FTMO thread - God help me. READ THE MESSAGE AGAIN - and show some humanity please. You see I enjoy helping traders in the process of being profitable in this game. Here was a message from a trader just last week who I gave some simple advice on. Do you get any of theses? no probably not. {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} CeeSo, just a quick question, why using 0.25 to 1% per pair instead of the ATR ? Aren’t there pairs that move more or less on a daily basis than others, like 0.125 to 0.5 ? Also take xauusd for example, in April 2013 the daily atr14 was 38usd when it was trading at ~1360usd. More than 7 years later it is 30usd trading at ~1970. Yet a 1% move in April 2013 was 13.6usd and now it is 19.7usd, the price going up makes the % higher while the volatility has actually decreased. Longer ATR like 55 still makes it a daily steady 25usd excursion over...Ignored
DislikedThe GBP worked great so knowing what I know statistically, I can now even move my stops to break even. I am not telling you what I am doing I am merely showing you how you can use statistics to make better trade decisionsIgnored
Disliked{quote} I posted these Frequency Distributions Earlier but I should be posting them on every page of this thread. Over and over and over again till people understand you can never beat MATH. If you really wanted to get sophisticated you could find the exact percentages of the moves for example the exact average move could be 54% but I find that unnecessary for what I personally do. {image} {image}Ignored
Disliked{quote} First, how were you able to accurately measure those excursions on backtesting? As far as I know it is impossible because the numbers are on daily close, it can not measure the maximum excursion DURING the day, your graphics show that very well, it is open vs close. Second, why not using ATR instead as the excursion in % is only relative to the price therefore not showing the accurate volatility average the more the data sampled.Ignored
Disliked{quote} You can use an ATR that is fine I used them for sizing successfully as well I am not saying that you can not or should not. The problem I personally have with ATR is it becomes harder to Quantify it over a large sample. Of course, you could quantify it but this is just a lot easier for me to work with. I would like to know the probability of every trade I take working. So for example: If I take that GBPUSD short signal (I posted above) at the -.50% level what are the exact probabilities it will hit the -.75% or the -1% and beyond level....Ignored
DislikedAll that matters to me if I take this short signal at the -50% what is the exact probability it will hit the -75% or beyond. By knowing this as well as knowing what stop level I should use and the percentage chances that that stop will get hit I can size the trade appropriately to make sure my risk is controlled over and over and over again with great ease. I am not predicting the market I am just working with what is probable. To quantify every single trade I take. This way you can build a database of the highest probability trades that suit your...Ignored
Disliked{quote} I understood that very well. The problem is that what you call probabilities are not because your backtesting was made only possible on the daily open vs daily close which is very different than daily open vs daily high/low. I sincerely hope I am wrong, believe meIgnored
Disliked{quote} I have all the data as well for the Daily highs and Lows but for the purposes of this thread the instances of large swings are not that important at this time but yes, of course, there are going to be wild swings but 90% of the time these happen during Risk-Off events and I never trade when the market is Risk Off.Ignored