What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex | Page 11 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Your and My Lessons Learned Losing and Gaining in Trading 5 replies

things you learned from forex and improved your life 12 replies

The most important lesson’s I’ve learned trading Forex, so far... 15 replies

Attachments: What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex
Exit Attachments

What I learned after losing $300,000 trading forex

  • #201
  • Aug 2, 2020 11:39pm Aug 2, 2020 11:39pm
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} Exactly, This is the biggest problem I find with new traders (myself included when I was losing money). The reality is that all the Trading Gurus want you to believe that you can make hundreds of pips from a beach in Fiji. This is what I like to call FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS. Many new traders get fooled by short term small sample size results. Just because something works for a year or 2 years even does not mean it will continue to work. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS!. The fact is if the markets only move plus or minus .5% daily then we have to accept...
So you invented the term "fooled by randomness"?
  • #202
  • Aug 3, 2020 1:32am Aug 3, 2020 1:32am
Quoting Viktory
{quote} So you invented the term "fooled by randomness"? https://cdn-resources.faireconomy.me....png?v=1.0.0.3
“ Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.A great book IMO.Cheers,
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #203
  • Aug 3, 2020 2:24am Aug 3, 2020 2:24am
Great post... i want to say after 10 years in forex market ... i realized the same market is random and no one really know where it's going .. also i realized all strategies outside there is the same ... no matter what you use or what's your R:R no matter if r:r 1 to 1 or 1000 to 1 ....
i realized what really matter is Trade Management and thinking out of box how to manage trade and increase your potential profits .. that's most hard part in trading ... most traders thinking they can find way that give them control in market and random they wasting time looking for stratgies and holy grail and R:R theories while ignore most important part [ART OF MANAGE TRADE]
  • #204
  • Aug 3, 2020 3:30am Aug 3, 2020 3:30am
Quoting CeeSo
{quote} The percentage levels will change with the price of the underlying that is all that matters. If you want to get a little more accurate you could use the ATR but the stats and math are all just based of the price of the underlying. When I said the Money management should be based on Volatility what that really means is if we know 85% of the time we are plus or minus 50% we can place stops or trades around those levels in "some" contexts.
This is a very valuable point.
Can you also suggest a good indicator to calculate the levels? and if you could provide your screenshot of the EU with the marked levels for the day, we can also cross verify.. we are also in the right track.
Thanks
  • #205
  • Aug 3, 2020 6:20am Aug 3, 2020 6:20am
Guys in my understanding "randomness" in this market is a period (often a large portion of the day) when there is no buying or selling interest. Thus the pair ranges. However sometimes when the range is large the big boys are actively mopping up stops or weak minded retail traders. That is called "accumulation" or "distribution".

Often buying or selling interest is skanty or of low volume and this is where the problems start for intraday traders. The move usually peters out just when one enters a trade. That is the big danger of over trading

What has not been mentioned here is actually getting to know the nuances of a particular trading pair. Take XAUUSD for instance. Many are terrified to trade Gold but if one truly gets to know how the pair moves it's really not so terrifying.

Also in my experience it's best to concentrate on trading just one or two pairs. A lot of problems result from trying to watch too many pairs at one time. It's just not possible and loss is the result.
  • #206
  • Aug 3, 2020 7:03am Aug 3, 2020 7:03am
Quoting LDFX
{quote} “ Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.A great book IMO.Cheers,
All his books are great, would say...
  • #207
  • Edited 8:24am Aug 3, 2020 8:14am | Edited 8:24am
So today was a very good example of how the market respected the ranges and how I was able to use the ranges as both targets and stops. Notice how the USDJPY 50 level was strongly rejected and the AUDUSD 25 levels contained the price until it collapsed to the 50 level.


I want to stress the fact that these are NOT SUPPORT and RESISTANCE levels they are merely targets and stop levels.


Not every day will be this perfect but if I understand that the price will very rarely (85% of the time) exceed past the 50 level I can take profits and manage my risk better.

Remember Lesson 1: Risk Management is EVERYTHING it is the most important thing to learn.

Every Guru in the world is teaching you how to get into a trade. Run from these people run very fast. The first step for me to turn the corner was to learn what my market was capable of doing on any given day and then planning my entire trade plan and risk control around that mathematical fact.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture3.JPG Size: 107 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture4.JPG Size: 104 KB
Attached Image
  • #208
  • Aug 3, 2020 8:47am Aug 3, 2020 8:47am
Quoting dkrock
{quote} Finally some insight into why you are a losing trader. You drank the kool-aid and are brainwashed. You are doing what the estimated 95% of losing traders do. Your "line" strategy is based on historical wannabe trading. What does your strategy say in all these circled areas? These are all trades. What did you do? Nothing? LOL. Price touches your magic line and then you take the reverse and just hold on for dear life until it either goes to the other line or causes a loss? What do you do when it punches through your line? Lose? There is no...

I think you did not read from the first post, you missed a point. He is not loosing trader, he used to be but not now,.... he is a profitable trader. He doesn't trade lines like you say "Price touches your magic line and then you take the reverse and just hold on for dear".... He uses lines for TP or SL only not for entry, but his entry is based on Monthly or Weekly chart direction maybe, who knows, we are still waiting for that part to be explained. Please read again his posts before you start attack again.

Cheers
  • #209
  • Aug 3, 2020 9:24am Aug 3, 2020 9:24am
Quoting CeeSo
So today was a very good example of how the market respected the ranges and how I was able to use the ranges as both targets and stops. Notice how the USDJPY 50 level was strongly rejected and the AUDUSD 25 levels contained the price until it collapsed to the 50 level. I want to stress the fact that these are NOT SUPPORT and RESISTANCE levels they are merely targets and stop levels. Not every day will be this perfect but if I understand that the price will very rarely (85% of the time) exceed past the 50 level I can take profits and manage my risk...

Nice post. How do you draw those levels? Looks like auto indicator?

so if your long EJ, you would target 0.25 and 0.50 price levels from the open And would exit all positions at o.25 or 0.50 levels to the downside? Is this correct?

thx
leacher
Time & Price Forecast - Jenkins
  • #210
  • Aug 3, 2020 9:44am Aug 3, 2020 9:44am
Comparing Ceeso's and mt4 plot, they are confirmed the same.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au2.JPG Size: 107 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au1.png Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uj2.JPG Size: 104 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uj1.png Size: 18 KB
Know what you trade
  • #211
  • Edited 10:04am Aug 3, 2020 9:44am | Edited 10:04am
The method of entry does not matter. I did not start this thread to teach a system of trading. That was not my intention. My intention was to help some of you that might be chasing the wrong ideas of what trading is and is not. So that you can stop chasing the wrong methods and maybe get back on track to being a long term profitable trader.

The first and foremost thing that trading is. Is RISK MANAGEMENT but to have the right risk management you must understand your underlying asset.

What are the mathematical facts about the asset you are trading? What are the exact probabilities that it will do XYZ?

I have proven mathematically that over the last year the EURUSD and almost every other forex major pairs will stay contained within a plus or minus .50% range from open to close 85% of the time and about 90% of the time stay within a plus or minus .75% range. I have also proven that only 10% of the time it will extend past a 1% or higher trend move up or down.

This gives us a framework to develop risk management that is based on actual mathematical probabilities.

This will stop you from getting stopped out in randomness and it will help you size your trades correctly based on the probabilities of the market. This is the absolute key to trading successfully over a large sample size.

I have no intention of handing people a trading system because each person must find their own style of trading but you need to know the facts before you can do that in an effective manner.


This thread was started to share my personal experiences of how I discovered the facts that helped me turn around my career.

I WASTED tens of thousands of dollars on fake guru's but if I had known the facts of what I am sharing in this thread beforehand I would have never needed to buy all that nonsense and I could have looked for someone that was working within the boundaries of the facts.

By sharing what I have learned I hope I can spare some of you the pain of what I had to endure.


Look at the EURUSD it bounced off the -.50% level but does that mean it will always do that? Hell no! Could I have used that level today as a support level? Yes, I could have but does that mean it will work every day? No of course it won't. Some days it will just sit there all day long other days it will go thru and come back inside and other days it will go through and keep going 15% of the time.

All that we know is that it has an 85% probability of closing back inside the -.50% level.

That is information I can trust and work with to develop my own trading plan.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture3.JPG Size: 119 KB
  • #212
  • Aug 3, 2020 9:54am Aug 3, 2020 9:54am
Quoting BWilliam
Comparing Ceeso's and mt4 plot, they are confirmed the same. {image} {image} {image} {image}

Thanks Bwilliams there is nothing special about my indicator it is simply measuring .25% .50% .75% and 100% plus or minus from the OPEN of the day as long as yours does this its fine
  • #213
  • Aug 3, 2020 10:04am Aug 3, 2020 10:04am
Wow that's impressive that even after losing 300K you keep trying. By the way thanks for telling us your valuable observation about trading. Will look forward to hearing more from you in the future.
  • #214
  • Aug 3, 2020 10:27am Aug 3, 2020 10:27am
Quoting CeeSo
The method of entry does not matter. I did not start this thread to teach a system of trading. That was not my intention. My intention was to help some of you that might be chasing the wrong ideas of what trading is and is not. So that you can stop chasing the wrong methods and maybe get back on track to being a long term profitable trader. The first and foremost thing that trading is. Is RISK MANAGEMENT but to have the right risk management you must understand your underlying asset. What are the mathematical facts about the asset you are...
wise words and thx a lot that you have posted here your knowledge!
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #215
  • Aug 3, 2020 10:48am Aug 3, 2020 10:48am
Hello everyone, sorry for not following the topic from the beginning, and for permission to interrupt: here, has anyone read the book "trading in the zone" ???
A great book on trading psychology.
Trading in the zone
  • #216
  • Aug 3, 2020 11:08am Aug 3, 2020 11:08am
r: r ratio.
if you identify trends on a large time frame and look for trading points on a small time frame. You will have an 1/8 r: r ratio or higher.
1 -The high r: r ratio will enable higher profits
2-large time frame will make opening fewer transactions, but more quality.
3- if your win rate and loss rate are stable, quality transactions will help you retain more profits, but the cost is equal (compared to small time frames)
Trading in the zone
  • #217
  • Aug 3, 2020 1:03pm Aug 3, 2020 1:03pm
Quoting ultax
{quote} Proof you had $300,000 or BS.
Can a person who does not know the difference between 50% and 0.5% successfully trade?
  • #218
  • Aug 3, 2020 1:19pm Aug 3, 2020 1:19pm
Is this proof that I'm profitable ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: zisk.jpg Size: 69 KB
  • #219
  • Aug 3, 2020 1:22pm Aug 3, 2020 1:22pm
CeeSo, thank you for your valuable input and wise words about money management. Great post.
  • #220
  • Aug 3, 2020 1:24pm Aug 3, 2020 1:24pm
What I learned from here? I think nothing.
3 traders viewing now