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Hidden divergence

  • #4,141
  • Jul 31, 2020 6:01pm Jul 31, 2020 6:01pm
Just to give an idea of what Hidden Divergence has to offer during a trading week on the 4HR charts. I like that chart, you don't have to be glued in front of it during the day unless you get a trigger signal on smaller timeframes and you have to manage the trade closely. I don't take them all, I don't want to have more than 5% of my capital at risk. Just backtest and you will notice around 5 opportunities as an average sometimes more during the week. Circles on images show entry signals the way I trade (MACD crossing the zero line).
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  • #4,142
  • Jul 31, 2020 6:48pm Jul 31, 2020 6:48pm
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healthy pull back on EU H4? we don't know yet.

might be. since it's the end of the week and also end of the month especially large positions consolidated for institutions.

Will we see a shooting back up next week?
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #4,143
  • Jul 31, 2020 7:02pm Jul 31, 2020 7:02pm
Quoting mnmnmmnnmnmn
{image} healthy pull back on EU H4? we don't know yet. might be. since it's the end of the week and also end of the month especially large positions consolidated for institutions. Will we see a shooting back up next week?
I am following exactly the same, I believe it was because the end of the month and some of the big boys are faking sellers. For me eurusd will hit 1.30. Usd needs some very good news next week on nfp and job claims to turn around. Have a good weekend, I'll start to be more present here and sharing my setups
  • #4,144
  • Jul 31, 2020 7:12pm Jul 31, 2020 7:12pm
Here are some setups I'm watching for Monday, I only consider that HD is valid if price made a fresh HH or LL. You guys consider this too? Also I try to enter when price is near ema50, when it's too far its risky because most times it comes back.
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  • #4,145
  • Jul 31, 2020 7:26pm Jul 31, 2020 7:26pm
Quoting zooky
Here are some setups I'm watching for Monday, I only consider that HD is valid if price made a fresh HH or LL. You guys consider this too? Also I try to enter when price is near ema50, when it's too far its risky because most times it comes back. {image} {image} {image} {image}
Will follow your analysis. Cheers.
  • #4,146
  • Jul 31, 2020 11:10pm Jul 31, 2020 11:10pm
Quoting zooky
{quote} I am following exactly the same, I believe it was because the end of the month and some of the big boys are faking sellers. For me eurusd will hit 1.30. Usd needs some very good news next week on nfp and job claims to turn around. Have a good weekend, I'll start to be more present here and sharing my setups
I highly doubt the US is gonna have an awesome NFP data. Weak dollars needed is the fundamental for now and till the end of this year at least if not until the end of the election.

EU has been over bought into the heaven. 130 pips from the very top down to the current level without much pull back. Let me go get my charts first.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #4,147
  • Jul 31, 2020 11:13pm Jul 31, 2020 11:13pm
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Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #4,148
  • Jul 31, 2020 11:18pm Jul 31, 2020 11:18pm
So, as we can see till the end of the day friday, H4 closed above the lowest point of the day. This is a sign of bear exhausting.

Previous price faile to show us a RD when it made the high. This indicates possible higher high if we dont have a lower low next week.

H4 chart starts to show HD pattern, but need to see a bullish pattern like a higher low from this point or something aggressive like a bulling engulfing candle but I highly doubt it.

Next week it will be quite before the NFP. Volume is gonna shrink. So price bouncing upand down. And if at any point we see a higher low with a big push, this will indicate a decent bullish outlook for EU to break up over the previous high.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #4,149
  • Jul 31, 2020 11:24pm Jul 31, 2020 11:24pm
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Price will consolidate for a while on monday then we 'll see which way it breaks out.

But i strongly believe the big train of EU has already started, and when something massive like this starts rolling, the strong momentum willl keep it going for a little furthur.

So i my prediction will be EU pulling back up during london session, as some of the institutions trying to pick up some cheap chips to long EU in a long run. Especially we have a crappy common sense data feeling about the NFP next friday.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
  • #4,150
  • Aug 1, 2020 12:42am Aug 1, 2020 12:42am
Quoting mnmnmmnnmnmn
{image}{image} Price will consolidate for a while on monday then we 'll see which way it breaks out. But i strongly believe the big train of EU has already started, and when something massive like this starts rolling, the strong momentum willl keep it going for a little furthur. So i my prediction will be EU pulling back up during london session, as some of the institutions trying to pick up some cheap chips to long EU in a long run. Especially we have a crappy common sense data feeling about the NFP next friday.
mnmnmmnnmnmn,

I agree that there might be some consolidation from now on. Although there is a bullish HD pattern with the MACD histogram (blue dotted lines), the MACD line is showing a clear bearish Regular Divergence (black bold lines). Momentum going up is thus slowing down, but we still don't know for sure where price is going to go. We can see on the 1HR chart that price is at the blue dotted trendline so we are about to know exactly what is going to happen.

One way of trading divergence is looking at the next smaller timeframe and wait for MACD to cross the zero line as an entry signal. I am not saying it is the best strategy, but it is a good one IMO. For instance after a divergence confirmation on the 4HR chart (red vertical dotted line), a short entry signal (bold circles) is seen on the 1 HR chart as MACD crosses the zero line. There is around a 40 pip move so far. Trades can also be taken on the 5 min chart right after the MACD signal on the 1 HR timeframe following a Cost Averaging approach.
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  • #4,151
  • Aug 1, 2020 2:31am Aug 1, 2020 2:31am
thats great, i use stochastic cross and close on h1 to enter. doesnt give a sniper entry but its a confirmed and very accurate entry . so im waiting a cross to jump on the buy train next week.
  • #4,152
  • Aug 1, 2020 2:55am Aug 1, 2020 2:55am
Quoting zooky
{quote} I am following exactly the same, I believe it was because the end of the month and some of the big boys are faking sellers. For me eurusd will hit 1.30. Usd needs some very good news next week on nfp and job claims to turn around. Have a good weekend, I'll start to be more present here and sharing my setups
M5 is making bullish div at the trendline
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  • #4,153
  • Aug 1, 2020 3:38pm Aug 1, 2020 3:38pm
It's nice RD on W1- I would be hunting for Bearish HD on lower TFs:
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  • #4,154
  • Aug 1, 2020 3:52pm Aug 1, 2020 3:52pm
Quoting vitall
It's nice RD on W1- I would be hunting for Bearish HD on lower TFs: {image}
H2 looks good- it respects Ichimoku :
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  • #4,155
  • Aug 2, 2020 12:48am Aug 2, 2020 12:48am
What signal would be good for exit ???

When to exit ?????
  • #4,156
  • Aug 2, 2020 2:40am Aug 2, 2020 2:40am
Potential HD forming for CADCHF....?
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  • #4,157
  • Edited 4:44pm Aug 2, 2020 12:06pm | Edited 4:44pm
Quoting jebng
What signal would be good for exit ??? When to exit ?????
Every trader has their own way. The one that I use the most is to set a stop loss level at the last swing high/low and to set the profit level at the same distance as the risk. When price reaches half the risk in profit, I often bring the stop loss to breakeven + few pips. I get stopped out more often, but with a small profit instead of a bigger loss.

If the risk allows me to trade 2 units under 5% of my capital, I bring both to breakeven when price reaches half the risk in profit,. then close one at the profit level and let the other one roll. And again, there can be other ways, but aiming a basic RR=1:1 is profitable with a probability of around 2 wins out of 3.
  • #4,158
  • Edited 4:15pm Aug 2, 2020 12:16pm | Edited 4:15pm
Quoting pohchuan
Potential HD forming for CADCHF....? {image}
Looks like it. There is a clear bearish trend as seen from Weekly to 4HR charts. The HD pattern is under development. On the 1HR chart, we see a doji candle followed by a strong bearish move. It can be an entry signal, but I prefer to wait for MACD to cross the zero line for a confirmation. It's a personal preference.
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  • #4,159
  • Aug 2, 2020 3:35pm Aug 2, 2020 3:35pm
Quoting chamane
{quote} Looks like it. There is a clear bearish trend as seen on Weekly to 4HR charts. The HD pattern is under development. On the 1HR chart, we see a doji candle followed by a strong bearish move. It can be an entry signal, but I prefer to wait for MACD to cross the zero line for a confirmation. It's a personal preference. {image}
Looks like a miirror of CADCHF. A bullish HD pattern developing on the 4HR chart and a bullish price action on the 1HR TF. It's too early to enter IMO, I am waiting for MACD confirmation.
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  • #4,160
  • Aug 2, 2020 6:03pm Aug 2, 2020 6:03pm
Quoting chamane
{quote} mnmnmmnnmnmn, I agree that there might be some consolidation from now on. Although there is a bullish HD pattern with the MACD histogram (blue dotted lines), the MACD line is showing a clear bearish Regular Divergence (black bold lines). Momentum going up is thus slowing down, but we still don't know for sure where price is going to go. We can see on the 1HR chart that price is at the blue dotted trendline so we are about to know exactly what is going to happen. One way of trading divergence is looking at the next smaller timeframe and wait...
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Not sure if your MACD is up close to zero or not. Price has broken the 15m structure previous high. Looks like H4 20 is holding. Now price should keep going back up to the 50% zone and sell off again if it fails to going higher.
Whatever is happening right now has happened before and will happen again.
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