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  • #112,921
  • Jul 27, 2020 10:53am Jul 27, 2020 10:53am
Surely EUR/USD will go down now?

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  • #112,922
  • Jul 27, 2020 10:55am Jul 27, 2020 10:55am
Quoting newbegger
{quote} Back again for a short post then off to enjoy holiday. ------------- So the bottom is in. Not as accurate as Haines bottom, Mark called it like 1 or 2 days from the bottom. My call was several weeks later but here we are. Next stop in the 1.1777 area. But not right away. This week was a super huge flat top candle so some profit taking expected. But no shorting for now unless you enjoy losing money. I am sure some will as they have a signal. My advise, keep shorts very short as you are against a powerful bull. Those on holiday like me, enjoy...
That was easy. 1.1777 met on first day of trading this week. I am surprized at this as I expected profit taking. No profit taking means the bull still gaining momentum.

Next target is 1.2000. I see the fib at 1.2053 but 1.2000 is starting point for this pair and also a very round number. Look for some sideways action when we get to 1.2000. I did say when, not if, but there can be black swan event that prevents this. Black swans are not predictable and can be account killers if you go all in.
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #112,923
  • Jul 27, 2020 10:55am Jul 27, 2020 10:55am
Minimum/Target

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  • #112,924
  • Jul 27, 2020 11:00am Jul 27, 2020 11:00am
Seeing a healthy mix of bulls and bears tells me this market is healthy
  • #112,925
  • Jul 27, 2020 12:23pm Jul 27, 2020 12:23pm
As long as no 4hr closes above 1.1763, we will see bearishness up to 1.1710 and maybe up to 1.1687.
  • #112,926
  • Jul 27, 2020 1:00pm Jul 27, 2020 1:00pm
I'm watching 1.1772. I think it's a crucial price for both bears and bulls.
  • #112,927
  • Jul 27, 2020 2:33pm Jul 27, 2020 2:33pm
Quoting Traderview
I'm watching 1.1772. I think it's a crucial price for both bears and bulls.
The gloves are off in this market. Asia can come online and violate the rules tonight again. They can easily reach 1.1813 or even higher. The top may be set before Wednesday before any serious retracement. The guys moving this thing are out to get all the shorts. All of them.
  • #112,928
  • Jul 27, 2020 2:52pm Jul 27, 2020 2:52pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} The gloves are off in this market. Asia can come online and violate the rules tonight again. They can easily reach 1.1813 or even higher. The top may be set before Wednesday before any serious retracement. The guys moving this thing are out to get all the shorts. All of them.
While going up alot, this has happened before.. and if the fed wants to stop it they can stop it directly. Remember the swap lines etc that fed open with other countries central banks to allow dollar to be printed abroad to finance USd financed debt abroad?!? It is not exactly retail traders that drive this leg up in assume...

IF the dollar dropps more, who knows, it is A great way to bolster the us economy for a while... lower imports and more production within US. Simultaneously the countries exporting to US have to lower their sales prices in their own currencies.. as long USA is the main consumer of the world they always will win :-)
  • #112,929
  • Jul 27, 2020 2:52pm Jul 27, 2020 2:52pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} The gloves are off in this market. Asia can come online and violate the rules tonight again. They can easily reach 1.1813 or even higher. The top may be set before Wednesday before any serious retracement. The guys moving this thing are out to get all the shorts. All of them.
Yep, there is still enough momentum left in the move, that we can have an extended 5th wave after the completed 5th wave. If I see support at around 1.1725-1.1730, I'll exit my short scalp position. Looking to short over 1.1800 for a more solid pullback, if this pullback remains shallow.
  • #112,930
  • Jul 27, 2020 3:03pm Jul 27, 2020 3:03pm
Quoting krst8
{quote} While going up alot, this has happened before.. and if the fed wants to stop it they can stop it directly. Remember the swap lines etc that fed open with other countries central banks to allow dollar to be printed abroad to finance USd financed debt abroad?!? It is not exactly retail traders that drive this leg up in assume... IF the dollar dropps more, who knows, it is A great way to bolster the us economy for a while... lower imports and more production within US. Simultaneously the countries exporting to US have to lower their sales prices...
Exactly, the guys driving price up don't even know if retail traders exist. However, the retail herd are always on the wrong side. This move up is intentional. Now most people are expecting/hoping the Fed to do something, but how about finding out that this may be exactly what they want.

In my opinion, Trump won this one hands down. Your second paragraph is exactly the way it is. Lower dollar prices helps the US recover faster from this Covid situation.
  • #112,931
  • Jul 27, 2020 3:16pm Jul 27, 2020 3:16pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} The gloves are off in this market. Asia can come online and violate the rules tonight again. They can easily reach 1.1813 or even higher. The top may be set before Wednesday before any serious retracement. The guys moving this thing are out to get all the shorts. All of them.
Hi Miti,

Good points made. Tomorrow a possible further squeeze up going into Wednesday. We are going into month-end and FOMC on Wednesday could see volatile moves ahead for this week.

Cheers, Bud.
Trade to trade another day
  • #112,932
  • Jul 27, 2020 3:33pm Jul 27, 2020 3:33pm
Quoting Wavegarrick
{quote} Hi Miti, Good points made. Tomorrow a possible further squeeze up going into Wednesday. We are going into month-end and FOMC on Wednesday could see volatile moves ahead for this week. Cheers, Bud.
Good to see you Wave. I hope you are holding up strong. Yes, these are critical levels and critical times. Lol
  • #112,933
  • Edited 3:52pm Jul 27, 2020 3:40pm | Edited 3:52pm
time will tell
BE of course
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  • #112,934
  • Jul 27, 2020 10:00pm Jul 27, 2020 10:00pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} The gloves are off in this market. Asia can come online and violate the rules tonight again. They can easily reach 1.1813 or even higher. The top may be set before Wednesday before any serious retracement. The guys moving this thing are out to get all the shorts. All of them.
They did put on an effort in the Asia session so far to resume the climb, but it seems to have petered out. Watching for next support. I'm expecting this pullback to reach the range 1.1690 - 1.1724 before any more rally attempts. Still holding my scalp short position (which is more like a swing trade now LOL)
  • #112,935
  • Jul 27, 2020 10:07pm Jul 27, 2020 10:07pm
1 think i can sell now
hope make profit
  • #112,936
  • Jul 27, 2020 11:09pm Jul 27, 2020 11:09pm
EU will be down to 1.1528 first and then down more
The Average Discount Everything
  • #112,937
  • Jul 27, 2020 11:11pm Jul 27, 2020 11:11pm
Quoting Traderview
I'm watching 1.1772. I think it's a crucial price for both bears and bulls.
TP Hit @1.1720. Bagged 50 pips.

Sidelines now
  • #112,938
  • Jul 27, 2020 11:48pm Jul 27, 2020 11:48pm
Last Long
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There is no perfect system
  • #112,939
  • Jul 28, 2020 1:50am Jul 28, 2020 1:50am
Quoting sqaguru
Interesting commentary on direction of the dollar: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ra...ely-inaccurate
This article is shitty. It is a desparate attempt of a dollar bull to explain why the market is wrong. No mentioning of physical flows turning as cheaply priced areas like the eurozone suddenly look attractive. Additionally no mentioning of euro breakup risk being priced out and no estimate of the size of the euro breakup risk in the EURUSD price in terms of cents. The only valid point is that a second wafe in Europe (as it might begin in Spain right now) might trigger a correction.
Another day, another dollar.
  • #112,940
  • Jul 28, 2020 2:01am Jul 28, 2020 2:01am
Quoting nic9man
{quote} This article is shitty. It is a desparate attempt of a dollar bull to explain why the market is wrong. No mentioning of physical flows turning as cheaply priced areas like the eurozone suddenly look attractive. Additionally no mentioning of euro breakup risk being priced out and no estimate of the size of the euro breakup risk in the EURUSD price in terms of cents. The only valid point is that a second wafe in Europe (as it might begin in Spain right now) might trigger a correction.
Any dollar analysis that ignores the financial system reset which is planned to replace the current arrangement is flawed. Financial reset will either bring a gold-backed financial system or a new fiat system based on some type of cryptocurrency backed by IMF SDRs.
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