OxyGen FX Trading Journal

This is my personal trading journal, to pen down my thoughts for my trading and learning journey, to hopefully get more clarity and discipline for my trading decisions.

I trade the Majors and their JPYs, and occasional crosses like EURGBP, AUDCAD etc, from Asia to US-noon-time hours.

I use Weekly/Daily/4hr to draw lines for visually obvious things like slopes/parallel-channels, horizontals (important price, whole numbers), critical HH/HL/LH/LL, and rudimentary Elliot-wave.

Enter/exit trade using the 1hr/15min, aiming for 20-40pips

And I also watch out for stock exchange opening times, events times, and hence the attributes of the currently forming “Daily” and “1hr” candle.


Good pips to everyone in this fantastic Forum!

Some thoughts.

AUDJPY: Possible 5-wave up seen on Daily with new HH created by mere 8pips. Had already risen above large LH in May, and last Fri peek again but with strong rejection, forming huge inverse hammer on weekly. Maybe this is the start of 4-5 months range between 70-76?
AUDUSD: Possible 5-wave up seen on Daily. Had peek above large LH in May, and today closed above LH again for 4 days. Bullish flag on 4hr. but no special target price above to attract.

EURJPY: On daily, see previous HH at 124.43 is mere 100 pips away. Whole number 125 also attracts. If rally, may see strong/fast rejection there.
EURUSD: Broke strongly above critical LH of 1.1496 for many days already. Nothing significant above to attract it, up nor down.

GBPJPY: Broke LH and rejected down strongly. Could be aiming for bottom of 3-month-old large rising //.
GBPUSD: Magic number 1.28? (Since 2016). Fri sees mere 9 pips from previous high (of 1.2813). Reject or continue rally? But next critical LH still far up at 1.32.

NZDJPY: Hit exactly at the previous high of 71.67! Wow. The subsequent rejection formed a huge inverse hammer, but supported by 70 and may still desire to aim for a official new high or even for 73.51 close by. Watch out for fast/strong rejection. Hmm, might not even rally, and just dip further to create long term horizontal channel between 68-70.
NZDUSD: Looks like a 5-Wave up on Daily, with critical LH of 0.6755 less than 100 pips away acting as a magnet. Beware hit (or nearly hit) and reject.

USDJPY: Finally broke below 3-month-old support of 106, but closed above 106 by NY close. No idea what it gonna do. Most JPYs seemed poised for possible dips. Who will influence who?

Next Wed FOMC may show the way, and subsequent Thu Fri GDP data may add fuel to the direction. Markets might not care about FOMC at this pandemic juncture, nothing new to expect, but still a good practice to respect it when trading.

Good pips to all !

Pre US-open adventure!

USDCHF is something I do not monitor. The pair is not even on my Favourite/Quick list.... I had previously did some analysis on it, drew some lines and that's all.
Today I just pulling up this chart from the main pair list for no reason and was surprised by what I saw! USDCHF had "just....." broke 5 year old strong support, and no follow-thru. Time to Long.

(Below pic, 4hr of USDCHF, and a condensed version of Weekly, for dramatic effect)
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/we...aQRvwKnP3k_v_n https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/KY...cY6TVuR1LNio4l


I had just mentioning in another USDCHF thread that I wonder what will happen to EURCHF, a pair often being intervened by SNB.
I did not trade this as the price at that time was hovering in the middle of nowhere. And I dun really trade EURCHF unless it is near the "SNB FLOOR".
A few hours later......it had already gone rocket up 90 pips. (4hr chart of EURCHF). Well well, what do you know.....LOL
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/mD...sPhCQYAtByBIGJ

All these USDCHF dip (USD weakening?) and EURCHF rally might have caused the EURUSD to rally. I think.

AUDCAD, seen on Daily, just for perspective. Seemed to achieve 5-waves. The rally cleared 0.95, and only broke briefly previous major LH of 0.9614. No follow thru, and may pause to go downwards. Below, the channel 93-94, attracts.
(oh, and just testing out how to attach pics. LOL)

Some personal thoughts.

AUDJPY: Possible 5-wave up from Mar2019. The 5th wave is mere 8pips? followed by 180pips rejection forming a huge inverse weekly inverse hammer. This is also the 2nd time price test the prior LH of 76.09 (Dec16) and 76 whole number.
AUDUSD: Possible 5-wave up from Mar2019. The 5th wave closed strongly up on weekly. Bullish flag on 4hr. No significant target price nearby above to attract up, the nearest being the 0.74-0.75 zone,

EURJPY: Previous HH at 124.43 (Jun2020) is mere 100-200 pips away. Whole number 125 also attracts. If rally, may face strong/fast rejection there. Will not trade this.
EURUSD: Continued to rally, consecutive 7 days. (BTW, USDCHF new 5 year low, EURCHF strong ally). The previous LH of 1.1815 attracts it up, and nothing significant below to attract it down.

GBPJPY: Broke LH and rejected down strongly. Could be aiming for bottom of 3-month-old large rising //.
GBPUSD: Magic number 1.28? (Since 2016). Rally cleared strong above 1.28 and previous (minor) HH of 1.2813.But next critical LH still far up at 1.32, although 1.30 may attract. Price hit a rising // channel from 27thJune, although I am not really sure about this //.

NZDJPY: Hit exactly at the previous high of 71.67! Wow. The subsequent rejection formed a huge inverse hammer, but supported by 70 and may still desire to aim for an official new high or even for 73.51 close by. Watch out for fast/strong rejection. Hmm, might not even rally, and just dip further to create a long term horizontal channel between 68-70.
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up on Daily, with critical LH of 0.6755 less than 100 pips away acting as a magnet. Beware hit (or nearly hit) and reject. New daily high made today at 0.6702, going for short.

USDJPY: Finally broke below 3-month-old support of 106, dip further near 105 and had a small bounce. Most JPYs seemed poised for possible dips. Who will influence who?

USDCHF: Had a interesting profitable day trading USDCHF, but I think I won’t monitor it.

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves. The rally cleared 0.95, and only broke briefly previous major LH of 0.9614. No follow thru, and may pause to go downwards. Below, the channel 93-94, attracts.

Wed FOMC may show the way, and subsequent Thu Fri GDP data may add fuel to the direction. Markets might not care about FOMC at this pandemic juncture, nothing new to expect from FOMC, but still a good practice to respect it when trading.

I am glad that JPYs respect whole numbers (hence the purple lines for my own reference).
Ideally, this NZDJPY should aim higher for 73.51 (Dec2019), but it got reject at the exact previous high. Cautiously aiming it below 70, and monitor if it bounce strongly at 70. (And also see how this way of inserting pictures work.....LOL)

NZDJPY did not bounce off 70, luckily.
Anyway, close off take-profit 50% of the short position for 30p. Aim for another 20 at most to the next support before it bounces again.

Asia and Europe mkts mostly in the red. DJIA futures also down, likely US will open in the red. Comdolls like AUD and NZD might follow.

Closed the NZDJPY as it nears target of 69.80, as it might bounce. Closed a similar AUDJPY short as it touches confluence of points.
Was looking at AUDNZD at that time of trade entry, and could not decide possible bias for next 1 or 2 days, hence decided to just enter both AUD and NZD.

Cautiously shorting EURUSD. Looking at the magnitude of its two week strong rally, it will not go down without a fight. But it deserves a pause. Anyway, it will likely close as a bearish "Daily" candle today at US-close, unless it can rally up 40 pips in the next few hours.
GBPUSD hit the top of a "possible" 4-month-old rising // channel, 1.2938. The 1.30 whole number above, may attract.

Some personal thoughts.

AUDJPY: Possible 5-wave up from Mar2020. The 5th wave is mere 8pips? Followed by 180pips rejection forming a huge inverse weekly inverse hammer. This is also the 2nd time price test the prior LH of 76.09 (Dec16) and 76 whole number. Cautious shorts
AUDUSD: Possible 5-wave up from Mar2019. The 5th wave closed strongly up on weekly. Bullish flag on 4hr. No significant target price nearby above to attract up, the nearest being the 0.74-0.75 zone. Cautious shorts.

EURJPY: Previous HH at 124.43 (Jun2020) is mere 100-200 pips away. Whole number 125 also attracts. If rally, may face strong/fast rejection there. Will not trade this.
EURUSD: Continued to rally, consecutive 7 days. (BTW, USDCHF new 5 year low, EURCHF strong ally). The previous LH of 1.1815 attracts it up, and nothing significant below to attract it down. Cautious shorts.

GBPJPY: Broke LH and rejected down strongly. Could be aiming for bottom of 3-month-old large rising // channel.
GBPUSD: Magic number 1.28? (Since 2016). Rally cleared strong above 1.28 and previous (minor) HH of 1.2813 and had amazing rally to 20 pips shy of 1.30 !
may attract. Price broke above rising // channel, typically means re-newed super strength. But like I said before, I am not really sure about this particular channel.

NZDJPY: Hit exactly at the previous high of 71.67! Wow. The subsequent rejection formed a huge inverse hammer, but supported by 70. To me, it is neutral at this point.
Might rally or might dip further to create a horizontal range between 68-70.
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up on Daily, with critical LH of 0.6755 less than 100 pips away acting as a magnet. To me, it is neutral at this point.

USDJPY: Finally broke below 3-month-old support of 106, dip further to briefly break 105. Most JPYs seemed poised for possible dips, and so does Majors. This means USDJPY will stagnant around 105 this whole week?

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves. The rally cleared 0.95, and only broke briefly previous major LH of 0.9614. No follow thru, and may pause to go downwards. Below, the channel 93-94, attracts.

Tonight FOMC.

FOMC did not produce any powerful rally for Majors.

Maybe because the Majors have already rally tremendously last few weeks and have neared their target before FOMC.
Example, GBPUSD was only 10pips away from 1.30 (whole number) many hours before FOMC,and it only gave GBPUSD a tiny upward nudge to 1.3013. Back to magic 1.28?

No up, means down?
Cautiously shorting, while monitoring Asia's reaction.

Showing some short trades NZDUSD (yday morning was deem neutral, this morning, post-FOMC short), and also testing out the attached-pic functions".

Closing one of the AUD cautious shorts I talked about yday, right now, for about 40pips. Now is just before London, AUD in general sank. Looking at Indices, Asia indices seems to sank just less than an hour before London. I not sure why. Hang Seng, 25,052 drop to 24,800 within just 1 hour.

Close off remainder of the short AUD with 50pips.
London follows Asia to opens with losses.
AUDUSD sank further, the London open hourly bar already stretched to 18 pips. I will not push my luck.
Also, closed off the short NZD as well.

Some personal thoughts.

AUDJPY: Possible 5-wave up from Mar2020. The 5th wave is mere 8pips and followed by 180pips rejection forming a huge inverse weekly inverse hammer. This is also the 2nd time price test the prior LH of 76.09 (Dec16) and 76 whole number. Sell rallies
AUDUSD: Possible 5-wave up from Mar2020. The 5th wave closed strongly up on weekly. Bullish flag on 4hr. No significant target price nearby above to attract up, the nearest being the 0.74-0.75 zone. Sell rallies.

EURJPY: Previous HH at 124.43 (Jun2020) is mere 100-200 pips away. Whole number 125 also attracts. But upward momentum is slowing. Will not trade this.
EURUSD: Continued to rally, consecutive 7 days, to mere 8 pips from the previous LH of 1.1815. FOMC last night did not help to push it up further. No up, means down?

GBPJPY: Broke LH and rejected down strongly. Could be aiming for bottom of 3-month-old large rising // channel.
GBPUSD: Magic number 1.28? (Since 2016). Rally cleared strongly above 1.28 and previous (minor) HH of 1.2813 and had a amazing rally to burst 13pips above 1.30 !
FOMC last night did not help to push it further beyond 1.30. No up, means down?

NZDJPY: Hit exactly at the previous high of 71.67! Wow. The subsequent rejection formed a huge inverse weekly hammer last week, and this broke firmly below 70. Short term reversal. Sell rallies, but contain within 68-70.
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up on Daily, with critical LH of 0.6755 less than 100 pips away acting as a magnet. However, the dip this week is too deep, and also broke below a short term rising line. Short term reversal. Sell rallies.

USDJPY: Finally broke below 3-month-old support of 106, dip further to briefly break 105. Most JPYs seemed poised for possible dips, and so does Majors. This means USDJPY will stagnant around 105 this whole week?

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves. The rally cleared 0.95, and only broke briefly previous major LH of 0.9614. No follow thru, and may pause to go downwards. Below, the channel 93-94, attracts.

Re-cap: FOMC not able to push Majors up further.
Later on in 10mins, German GDP.
US time, US GDP.

US GDP plunge 32.9% in 2nd Q ! Is such a number even possible?!
And I think Trump tweet about possible delay for Elections, as well, contributing to risk aversion.
Dow drop 300 at opening, and had dropped 480 as I wrote this!

I think for me, all FX analysis must put on hold until dusk settles. Only short Comdolls cautiously as previously mentioned.
Massive risk aversion (stocks plunge), but USD did not strengthen (supposed to be typical for risk aversion).
I wonder why?
Maybe its because the bad situation is for US itself and not global?
USDJPY and USDCHF safe haven ccy also did not really fall.
I have no idea. LOL

Anyway, I have come to believe that "news/data events" sometimes produce strange market reactions.
I will treat them as market movers, rather than predicting the "typical" response and direction.

And anyway, will see how the FX market reacts after everyone settles down and digest on the GDP data/news/movements.
Will be interesting to see Asia's stocks reaction and FX reaction.

Asia mkts, Tokyo down but China flat (as if laughing at US...). Majors still rally. Flight from USD.
At this point, unable to figure out to go Long or Short. Such strong rally unable to tell when it will end.

Some personal thoughts

Majors continued uptrend with another strong rally, courtesy of US GDP.
Extreme overbought. Difficult to trade. Shorting will be like “guessing a top”, while Long will be like “late for the party”.LOL

Yen crosses are also hard to trade. All are in consolidation, poised for a big move. Majors may reverse and drag them down, or USDJPY may reverse and push all up..

Looks like the market had ignored FOMC and focused on US GDP !
While I do take note of events/data timings, I am not proficient in it’s details. Hmm. The market did not “price-in” and was shocked by this GDP result?


AUDJPY: Possible 5-wave up from Mar2020, 5th wave is mere 8pips and followed by big rejection, supported by 75.0, forming a tight range. Not sure.
AUDUSD: Possible 5-wave up from Mar2020, 5th wave closed strongly up above 0.70 and previous major LH 0.7032. Strong rally into the middle of nowhere. Nowhere to hinge on for any trade.

EURJPY: Closing in to previous HH at 124.43 (Jun2020) and 125.0 also attracts. Not sure.
EURUSD: Broke super strong above previous major LH of 1.1815, and into middle of nowhere. Nowhere to hinge on for any trade.

GBPJPY: Forming a possible large rising channel from Mar2020, and within the channel is also forming a smaller channel from 22June. Not sure.
GBPUSD: Broke above Magic number 1.28, and above 1.30, super strong rally towards a confluent of peaks at 1.32. Waiting for clearer direction.

NZDJPY: Hit exactly at the previous high of 71.67 (June2020)! Wow. The subsequent rejection was huge and consolidate around 70. Not sure.
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up since March, now nearing previous major LH at 0.6755 (Dec2019) Waiting for clearer direction.

USDJPY: Broke below 3-month-old support of 106 and strongly below 105. If we zoom out onto weekly, we can see this pair is now in the middle of nowhere.

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves from Mar2020. Waiting for clearer direction.

NZDUSD, 4hr, sees a diverging/expanding triangle, at the top of rally. Time to go down?

But pan out, NZDUSD, Daily, can see that price is so so so close to Dec2019 peak, which will act as a magnet. Time to go up?

Will be interesting to see how this evolves.

Friday (31July) close for NZDUSD (4hr). It is price action like these that had made me believe that the market very often look for a point that is visibly obvious on a 4hr/Daily/Weekly view.

Just some personal thoughts.

Last week, Majors continued uptrend, courtesy of poor US GDP, although on Friday (end of Month) all the Majors closed with a bearish daily candle (USDCHF, USDJPY bullish daily candle).
Yen crosses are all in a consolidation mode. Majors may reverse down and drag them all down, or USDJPY reverse up and push them all up. There were rumors of BOJ intervention (or at least verbal ones)

Last week, the market had ignored FOMC and reacted strongly to extreme poor US GDP, sending Majors up (and stocks all down. Stocks and Majors lost correlation).
Next week, for events, we will see AUD & GBP rates, NZD & CAD unemployment, and NFP.

Trade-wise, I might cautiously sell rallies for Majors. Will stand aside for JPYs.

AUDJPY: Possible 5-wave up from Mar2020, 5th wave is mere 8pips and followed by big rejection, supported by 75.0. Next possible resistance magnet is a combi of 80 figure and Apr2019 LH 80.71, which I feel is too far away for this current overbought rally.
AUDUSD: Possible 5-wave up from Mar2020, 5th wave closed strongly up above combi of 0.70 and previous major LH 0.7032. Strong rally into the middle of nowhere.

EURJPY: Managed to break (but not sustain) above 125 figure. Next resistance magnet is 127.51 (Feb2019), which I feel is too far away for this current overbought rally.
EURUSD: Broke super strong above previous major LH of 1.1815, and into middle of nowhere.

GBPJPY: Forming a possible large rising channel from Mar2020. Not sure. Bigger picture (Weekly) sees Mar2020 (124.06) broke briefly below Oct2016 low (124.69) before consolidating. Maybe it will continue to consolidate more. Sell-top/buy-bottom of range?
GBPUSD: Broke above Magic number 1.28 and130, but limited by a combi of confluence of peaks in Mar2020 (132.00), 132 figure, and a large falling trendline from Apr 2016.

NZDJPY: Hit exactly at the previous high of 71.67 (June2020)! Wow. The subsequent rejection was huge and consolidate around 70. Neutral.
NZDUSD: Possible 5-Wave up since March, now nearing previous major LH at 0.6755 (Dec2019). Forming a nice rising expanding triangle on 4hr. Might fall back into 0.65.

USDJPY: Broke below 3-month-old support of 106 and strongly below 105 to reach 104.18. However, a subsequent 1 day rally of 187 pips might pause the downtrend.

AUDCAD: Seemed to achieve 5-waves from Mar2020. Waiting for clearer direction.