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Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

  • #981
  • Jul 5, 2020 3:27pm Jul 5, 2020 3:27pm
Quoting KeenPips
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The XAUUSD market is favourably supportive of bulls. However, the bullish momentum is presently declining. On the weekly time frame, bullish candlestick prints have been declining in the past five weeks as the market gets near the 1794.80 multi-year horizontal resistance area. Nevertheless, this does not mean the end of bullish influence in the market; only that, presently, the momentum is rather flat. {image} On the daily time frame, on June 23, price action broke above a horizontal channel (blue) within which it...
Hi KeenPips! Your H4 candlesticks are different from another providers, like tradingview. How do you think, different H4 candlesticks is a problem for successful trading?
  • #982
  • Jul 5, 2020 3:33pm Jul 5, 2020 3:33pm
Often, different trading platforms/brokers have different candlestick prints. For example, I use three brokers and I have different candlestick prints on two of them. What I do is trade what I see on my charts. Basically, however, the technical analysis will approximate for most providers because the technical structure tends to be similar overall.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting todamoon
{quote} Hi KeenPips! Your H4 candlesticks are different from another providers, like tradingview. How do you think, different H4 candlesticks is a problem for successful trading?
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #983
  • Jul 5, 2020 3:44pm Jul 5, 2020 3:44pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD is presently in a sideways mode. On the weekly time frame, although recent order flow context favours bulls, there is still some bearish pressure. Presently, the 1.23030/1.25500 area (blue) is the market operating zone. Within the zone, last week, market operation printed a relatively big bullish candlestick that neutralized the bearish move of three weeks ago.

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On the daily time frame, a rising trendline (magenta) traceable to March 20 has been broken down by price action. Presently, bulls are effecting an apparent retest of the trendline but they will have to contend with the nearby horizontal resistance around 1.25500. Any successful retest of the rising trendline may see a bullish ambition to target the 1.26700 horizontal resistance area (red). But a successful bearish intervention may see a retest of the 1.23030 base of the horizontal channel (blue) seen on the weekly time frame before any ambition to expose the 1.21700 support zone.

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Since July 1, the candlestick prints on the H4 time frame – with more and bigger bullish candlesticks than bearish ones – have been in favour of bulls. However, price action is approaching the S/R level around 1.25500 and we can see a weakening of the bullish influence. This may be a result of the bank holiday in the USA last Friday. We should await how the market handles the 1.25500 area in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #984
  • Jul 5, 2020 3:56pm Jul 5, 2020 3:56pm
Quoting KeenPips
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook The GBPUSD is presently in a sideways mode. On the weekly time frame, although recent order flow context favours bulls, there is still some bearish pressure. Presently, the 1.23030/1.25500 area (blue) is the market operating zone. Within the zone, last week, market operation printed a relatively big bullish candlestick that neutralized the bearish move of three weeks ago. {image} On the daily time frame, a rising trendline (magenta) traceable to March 20 has been broken down by price action. Presently, bulls are effecting...
In this case, maybe there will be influence from corona numbers, GB opened pubs in this week, if monday or tuesday infected numbers stay low, GU goes up?
  • #985
  • Jul 5, 2020 4:13pm Jul 5, 2020 4:13pm
Rather funny idea mate. Really, things are not that straight forward in Forex trading. Always remember that smart money, not dumb money, controls the markets.

KP

Quoting todamoon
{quote} In this case, maybe there will be influence from corona numbers, GB opened pubs in this week, if monday or tuesday infected numbers stay low, GU goes up?
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #986
  • Jul 11, 2020 3:55pm Jul 11, 2020 3:55pm
I have just completed my pre-market screening of the pairs on my watch-list. Before the market open next week, I hope to post my weekly technical analysis on each of the following: AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD and XAUUSD. I will personally be interested in how the AUDUSD market handles the 0.70220 horizontal resistance area in the early part of next week.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #987
  • Jul 12, 2020 2:53pm Jul 12, 2020 2:53pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is still technically bullish despite the bearish pressure that it is experiencing presently. On the weekly time frame, market operation printed a bullish candlestick last week after the ambivalent print of two weeks ago. However, the candlestick of last week has an upper shadow, indicating a bearish pressure. The bearish pressure came after the candlestick teased the 1820.20 horizontal resistance area; a multi-year resistance area that has held since September 2011.

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The daily time frame sees price action respecting an inner rising trendline (blue) traceable to June 8, 2020. Although, technically, price action has been sideways since Wednesday last week we may still see it retest the 1820.20 horizontal resistance area in the early part of this week. Should the inner rising trendline (blue) hold as support, we may see the bullish attempt break above 1820.20. However, any significant break below the inner rising trendline (blue) on a daily closing basis may see bears pursue a southward drive. The 1781.60 area is technically the immediate horizontal support. An outer rising trendline (red) traceable to March 31, 2020 is likely to be influential as support in the foreseeable future.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is within a rising channel (magenta). Presently, it is in a sideways mode within a narrow horizontal channel (blue) spanning the 1796.00/1806.90 zone. We should await a breakout on either side of the channel (blue) before looking for a trading opportunity. What price action does on Monday should be of interest.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #988
  • Jul 12, 2020 3:11pm Jul 12, 2020 3:11pm
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market has been generally positive for quite a while. On the monthly time frame, the bullish tone was affected by a negative pressure in June, resulting in the printing of a bullish candlestick with an upper shadow. The 0.70220 area is the immediate horizontal resistance. Presently, the July market operation is around the area. However, we should be aware of a falling trendline (red), traceable to March 2013, which is still largely active as resistance.

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The weekly time frame presently shows AUDUSD market operation flirting with the falling trendline (red) seen on the monthly time frame. The order flow context is witnessing an emerging bearish influence as market operation struggles to break above the 0.70220 horizontal resistance area. Besides, the candlestick prints of the past five weeks have been relatively of smaller size compared to the bullish print of six weeks ago, and they have failed to close above its close.

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Price action on the AUDUSD daily time frame is presently operating in an ascending channel created by two rising trendlines (blue and magenta) traceable to March 23, 2020 and presently located near the 0.70190 horizontal resistance area. However, the candlestick prints within the channel are miniature and ‘wicky’, apparently indicating a weakness in bullish momentum. Besides, there has been sideways of price action since Tuesday last week. We should await how price action handles the 0.70190/0.70220 area in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #989
  • Jul 12, 2020 3:23pm Jul 12, 2020 3:23pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has maintained a generally positive tone since May after the negative drive from 1.14890 to the 1.06450 in March. On the monthly time frame, market operation printed a bullish candlestick in June which surged to the 1.14220 area before a bearish pressure pushed it to close around the 1.12330 area. In July, market operation moved further northward and to the 1.13700 area before retracing southward. It is presently located around the 1.13000 area. Technically, although bulls have not given up their influence in the market, the bearish pressure is still in play.

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On the weekly time frame, presently bulls have taken control of market operation after a brief bearish retracement a few weeks ago. However, the bullish prints of the past three weeks have been less convincing being ‘wicky’ at the upper area and not able to break above the high of the bearish print of five weeks ago. Technically, the market seems to be in balance, and we should await what it does in the early part of this week. The 1.13890 area is the immediate horizontal resistance while the 1.11780 area is the immediate horizontal support.

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Recent price action on the daily time frame has formed a symmetrical triangle (magenta). Presently, it is consolidating near the apex of the triangle and we should prepare for a breakout on either side of the triangle.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #990
  • Jul 12, 2020 3:42pm Jul 12, 2020 3:42pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market has been sideways generally after the bearish drop that saw an all time low in March 2020. On the monthly time frame, the last three months have printed opposing candlesticks of almost equal size, which have been relatively small. Meanwhile, the candlestick print so far in July is bullish in tone but presently located at the 1.35830 area, which is technically the prevailing horizontal resistance.

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On the weekly time frame, price action since mid-May completed a 78.6 Fib bearish retracement of a bullish move before resuming a northward mode two weeks ago. Last week, market operation printed a bullish continuation candlestick, but it was not able to take out the high of the bearish print of five weeks ago. That high is around 1.28120 and we may see a bullish attempt targeting it in the early part of this week. A bullish failure may give confidence to bears to exercise another bearish pressure in the market.

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Price action from June 16 has created a ‘W’ pattern on the daily time frame and technically we may see a bearish pullback. But this may have to await a bullish move to the 1.27650 area to complete an ‘extended’ right leg up. At any rate, we should await what price action does in the early part of this week. Notice that the 1.27650 area is the prevailing horizontal resistance.

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GBPUSD price action is within a rising channel on the H4 time frame. The candlestick prints during the 4-Hour sessions last Friday were bullish, but they were predominantly of small size and ‘wicky’. This indicates a decline in bullish momentum. Presently, price action is struggling around the 1.26600 minor horizontal resistance area. They may find it difficult to break above the major horizontal resistance around 1.27650, particularly as bears have increased their influence given the significant bearish prints towards the end of last week. I am bearish GBPUSD.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #991
  • Jul 18, 2020 4:48pm Jul 18, 2020 4:48pm
Despite the general ambivalence in many of the markets, I will be posting my analyses on the EURUSD, GBUSD, USDCAD and XAUUSD before the market opens for next week.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #992
  • Jul 19, 2020 2:38pm Jul 19, 2020 2:38pm
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDCAD market is operating between 1.40630 and 1.323340 and (magenta) on the weekly time frame. The most recent swing has been southward with the June print teasing the 1.323340 area. Meanwhile, the candlestick print so far in July is located around the 1.35780 area; an area that aligns with a historical S/R level.

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An ’M’ pattern of price action can be seen on the weekly time frame. The down leg has made a retracement after filing the gap created at the 1.34230/1.35780 zone. Presently, market operation in the past five weeks has been consolidating at the 1.35790 area after a bullish move six weeks ago. Technically, we can expect a bearish continuation this week.

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Recent price action on the daily time frame, is in a sideways mode, with the 1.36900/1.34860 zone (blue) serving as a horizontal channel. The 1.36900 upper boundary coincides with the 78.6 Fib retracement of the 1.39760 to 1.33060 bearish swing. A bearish breakout of the horizontal channel (blue) will likely target the 1.33100 area initially before bears set their sight at the 1.323340 horizontal support area, which is the lower boundary of the operating horizontal channel (magenta) seen on the monthly time frame. Nevertheless, as the markets are generally sideways, we should not be surprised to see a sideways of price action or even a bullish pullback in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #993
  • Jul 19, 2020 2:55pm Jul 19, 2020 2:55pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is still generally positive on the monthly time frame although the bullish prints since April are now seeing a decrease in potency as market operation nears the 1825.84 multi-year resistance zone.

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After the sideways of market operation three weeks ago, bulls have seized the market initiative on the weekly time frame with the printing of bullish continuation candles in the last two weeks. The 1773.70 area is the immediate horizontal support.

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Price action on the daily time frame has turned sideways in the past eight days. The 1793.00/1816.00 zone (blue) forms the operating horizontal channel for market consolidation. How the market handles the area in the early part of this week should be of interest, particularly as the 1825.84 area is a multi-year horizontal resistance.

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Technicals on the H4 time frame give an edge to bulls and a rising trendline (magenta) traceable to June is still in play. However, the recent candlestick prints creating a sideways of price action within a horizontal channel indicate a slowdown in bullish momentum.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #994
  • Jul 19, 2020 3:14pm Jul 19, 2020 3:14pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is positively toned. On the monthly time frame, market operation is approaching the immediate horizontal resistance around the 1.15530 area (purple).

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Market operation on the weekly time frame has seen an increasing bullish prints and strength in the past four weeks. It is now entering the 1.14300/1.15530 horizontal resistance area that has held since February 2019 until it was retested in mid-March 2020. How the market handles the area in the early part of this week should be watched.

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Price action on the daily time frame is still technically in support of bulls. And a rising trendline (magenta) from recent lows is still intact. However, the bearish candlestick printed last week Thursday was a challenge to bullish influence, particularly as price action gets near the 1.14970 prevailing resistance area. We may not see much bullish drive in the early part of this week.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #995
  • Edited 3:54pm Jul 19, 2020 3:41pm | Edited 3:54pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Market Outlook

In the context of a generally negative GBPUSD market, market operation on the monthly time frame has been sideways since February 2020. However, so far, the candlestick print in July has a bullish tone. Presently, market operation is around the 1.26400 area (purple), which is the prevailing horizontal resistance zone. The 1.21880 area (green) is the immediate horizontal support.

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Market operation on the weekly time turned bearish last week after the bullish drive of the previous two weeks as it retested the 1.26400 area, which is the upper boundary of a horizontal channel created in the past eight weeks. Should bears continue to be influential this week, we may see a further southward move. However, the candlestick printed last week has a long lower shadow, which indicates a bullish pressure, and we may see buyers make a push higher in the early part of this week before a southward turnaround.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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On the daily time frame, the 1.25290/1.26600 zone (blue) is presently the operating horizontal channel for price action. A breach of the channel either side by price action is likely to provide directional clarity. In the circumstance, I will be more interested in a bearish trading opportunity as it potentially offers a more positive reward/risk ratio given the fact that, technically, the immediate horizontal resistance is around the 1.27400 area while the immediate horizontal support is around the 1.22700 area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily_July 19, 2020.png Size: 38 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #996
  • Jul 25, 2020 4:44pm Jul 25, 2020 4:44pm
I have just completed the screening of the pairs on my watch list. I will be posting my technical analysis on each of EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and XAUUSD before the market opens next week.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #997
  • Jul 26, 2020 2:52pm Jul 26, 2020 2:52pm
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market continues to dispose northward. On the monthly time frame, market operation is approaching the multi-year resistance around 1906.70, with the all-time 1923.50 resistance zone a promising long-term target of bulls.

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The candlestick prints and order flow context on the weekly time frame are dominated by bulls. The relatively big bullish candlestick printed last week signposts the intent of buyers to attack the 1906.70 multi-year resistance zone, which is less than 160 pips away.

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XAUUSD price action on the daily time frame is still disposed positively and a rising trendline (purple), traceable to March 20, 2020 is still in play. However, the fact that the recent candlestick prints have shadows on both ends indicates that we may be having some bearish pressure as price action approaches the next horizontal resistance zone around 1906.70.

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Recent XAUUSD price action on the H4 time frame is respecting an inner rising trendline (magenta). Presently, a sideways mode has emerged around the 1901.00 area, which indicates a weakness in bullish momentum. We should await how the market treats the area in the early part of this week. The 1888.84/1870.60 area (magenta) is the immediate horizontal support.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GOLDH4_July 26, 2020.png Size: 35 KB


I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #998
  • Jul 26, 2020 3:07pm Jul 26, 2020 3:07pm
USDJPY Weekly Technical Perspective

USDJPY market operation is consolidating in a symmetrical triangle (blue) on the monthly time frame. Presently, the 108.125/106.017 zone (magenta) is serving as the horizontal channel for side way market operation.

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On the weekly time frame, within the symmetrical triangle (blue) seen on the monthly time frame, since February 2020 market operation has created an ‘M’ pattern with the down leg presently around the 106.00 area. This area is the lower boundary of the operating channel seen on the monthly time frame. Its southward break will likely see a further push of the down leg of the ‘M’ pattern to the 104.420 area (light green).

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USDJPY price action on the daily time frame has been sideways within the 108.125/106.017 zone (magenta) for several days. Presently, it is at the 106.017 lower boundary, an area that aligns with a horizontal support traceable to March 17, 2020, which has been tested three times since then. A breakdown of the 106.00 area may expose the 104.420 handle; otherwise we may see a pullback of price action with the 107.210 area possibly an initial target of bulls.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #999
  • Jul 26, 2020 3:24pm Jul 26, 2020 3:24pm
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market has been ambivalent for quite a while. On the monthly time frame, it is consolidating in a falling triangle (blue). So far, the candlestick print this month has been bullish, but it is yet to breach the high of the indecision candlestick printed in June, around 1.28170; which is acting as the interim horizontal resistance on the monthly time frame. The monthly time frame horizontal support is around the 1.21790 area. Thus, the 1.21790/1.28170 zone (magenta) is acting as the prevailing horizontal channel for market operation.

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The GBPUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is disposed northward within the context of a generally ambivalent environment. The bullish candlestick printed last week breached the high of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago but it presently around the 1.28170 reaction area, which saw a bearish turnaround seven weeks ago. Before then, the market last operated in the area in the second week of March this year with a strong bearish drive. How the market handles this area in the early part of this week may lay the marker for the directional bias.

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Price action on the daily time frame is disposed northward. Presently it has broken below an inner rising trendline (purple) traceable to March 23, 2020 and respecting an outer rising trendline (red) from the same base. However, since last week Monday, the bullish prints have diminished, with the Wednesday and Thursday prints resulting doji-like. Price action is located around the 1.28170 significant horizontal resistance and we should await what happens in the area in the early part of this week. Looking left, the major technical pattern since March 10, 2020 appears to be ‘W’ shaped, with the outer arm in a consolidation. If that is the case, we may see an imminent southward turnaround. Alternatively, should buyers breach the 1.28170 horizontal resistance, we may see them effect a bullish follow-through towards the next technical reaction area of 1.29550.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #1,000
  • Jul 26, 2020 3:45pm Jul 26, 2020 3:45pm
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After a sideways of market operation in the early part of this year, EURUSD has been on a positive tone since May. Presently, on the monthly time frame, the market is operating near the 1.17060 horizontal technical area, which is the interim horizontal resistance. The 1.11230 area is, technically, the immediate horizontal support on the monthly time frame. Technically, the 1.11230/1.17060 zone (magenta) forms the interim range of market operation.

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is on a northward drive. Although it is presently near the 1.17060 technical reaction area, the relatively strong bullish print of last week may encourage buyers to move market operation towards the 1.18130 area. The 1.18130 area was the origin of the bearish drive in September 2018 and it has not been visited since then. Should bulls achieve such an objective, the area may yield to a southward turnaround. At any rate, technically, given the recent bullish surge, a bearish correction is imminent.

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On the daily time frame, a rising trendline (red) traceable to May 18, 2020 is still in play, supporting a bullish mode. Technically, bulls are still favoured but as the market approaches the 1.17060/1.18130 significant technical zone, we may see a southward turnaround sooner than later. A bearish turnaround will likely target the rising trendline (red) initially and may then see sellers extend their ambition to the 1.14380/1.13725 horizontal support zone (Sandybrown).

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The order flow context on the H4 time frame shows bearish pressure. Since last week Tuesday, three dominant bullish candlesticks have been printed, but each has been followed by increased bearish pressure. Although this technically indicates a decline in bullish momentum, the market structure still supports bulls. It will take a significant breakdown of the 1.14380/1.13725 zone (Sandybrown) before we can have confidence in any southward drive. Nevertheless, a bearish correction is in the offing.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
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