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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,121
  • Jul 24, 2020 11:51am Jul 24, 2020 11:51am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} EU continues strong to PRZ but no hurry with reversal because DXY is still very weak ...no serious reaction to 1.618 Ext. so far. {image} {image}
Thanks for the charts Coreg. 1.18 is a likely target for this move
  • #7,122
  • Edited 12:23pm Jul 24, 2020 12:04pm | Edited 12:23pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks for the charts Coreg. 1.18 is a likely target for this move
the question is if this happens without retracement first? Daily chart the most important right now...
Maybe go with the channel like Elliott to pinpoint the end of W_5...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU07.24.30M.b.png Size: 90 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,123
  • Jul 24, 2020 1:14pm Jul 24, 2020 1:14pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} the question is if this happens without retracement first? Daily chart the most important right now... Maybe go with the channel like Elliott to pinpoint the end of W_5...{image}
I'm going with my three drive pattern and switch to short @ 1.1650, for today. I think we have the same level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM30 7242020.png Size: 40 KB
  • #7,124
  • Jul 24, 2020 1:17pm Jul 24, 2020 1:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
USDCHF {image}
USDCHF, going long @ 0.92
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USCHF bx.PNG Size: 45 KB
  • #7,125
  • Jul 24, 2020 2:20pm Jul 24, 2020 2:20pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, long trade, target is 1.28 for today. I'll try an intraday short @ 1.28 for today. {image}
GBPUSD, short trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 7242020.png Size: 30 KB
  • #7,126
  • Jul 24, 2020 2:26pm Jul 24, 2020 2:26pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'm going with my three drive pattern and switch to short @ 1.1650, for today. I think we have the same level {image}
3 Drives or 5th diagonal makes the most sense...
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,127
  • Jul 24, 2020 2:54pm Jul 24, 2020 2:54pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} GBPUSD, short trade {image}
shahab8b, the same with GU...where is the end of (v)th???
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU07.24.30M..png Size: 90 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,128
  • Jul 24, 2020 3:07pm Jul 24, 2020 3:07pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, the same with GU...where is the end of (v)th??? {image}
It should be around the corner. I'll be looking to go long again after some form of abc correction next week.
  • #7,129
  • Jul 24, 2020 3:53pm Jul 24, 2020 3:53pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} It should be around the corner. I'll be looking to go long again after some form of abc correction next week.
I went with standard ratios for the zone of (v)th wave. GU just needs to show us a reversal pattern LH-LL on 15M TF. Good weekend shahab8b.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,130
  • Jul 24, 2020 4:17pm Jul 24, 2020 4:17pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} I went with standard ratios for the zone of (v)th wave. GU just needs to show us a reversal pattern LH-LL on 15M TF. Good weekend shahab8b.
Thanks, you too.
  • #7,131
  • Jul 25, 2020 7:46am Jul 25, 2020 7:46am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD Daily, trend is bullish against S @ 1.2480 H4, consolidation, possibly a triangle formation Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: GBP short 14K vs 16K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K Summary: stay bullish against S @ 1.2480, switch to short if 1.2480 fails. {image} {image}
The premarket analysis posted last weekend proved correct.

GBPUSD
Daily, trend is bullish against S @ 1.2480. A clear break of major R @ 1.28 will open 1.30 and 1.32 as next targets
H4, trend is bullish against S @ 1.2650
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: GBP short 15K vs 14K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K
Summary: stay bullish against S @ 1.2650, reassess if 1.2650 fails
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-5H4 725202.png Size: 38 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-5Daily 7252020.png Size: 32 KB
  • #7,132
  • Jul 25, 2020 8:09am Jul 25, 2020 8:09am
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, Daily, trend is bullish against S @ 1.1170, but then trend shows signs of exhaustion with the RSI bearish divergence H4, bullish against S @ 1.1370, Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: EUR long 111K vs 104K long last week. Longs increased by 7K Summary: stay bullish against S @ 1.1370, switch to short for a counter trend trade if 1.1370 fails. {image} {image}
The premarket analysis posted last weekend proved correct.

EURUSD
Daily, trend is bullish against S @ 1.1370. Next targets are 1.18, 1.20, and 1.22
H4, trend is bullish against S @ 1.1540
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: EUR long 125K vs 111K long last week. Longs increased by 14K. EUR longs are the largest since April 2018
Summary: stay bullish against S @ 1.1540. EURUSD has been going up vertically, while there is still room to the upside, these kind of moves , most likely, will be followed by a v-shaped reversal. But not before causing maximum pain for retail traders on the short side.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU COT25.PNG Size: 63 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-5H4 7252020.png Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-5Daily 7252020.png Size: 46 KB
  • #7,133
  • Jul 26, 2020 8:31am Jul 26, 2020 8:31am
For the rest of the Month of July, I am expecting the price to retest last month (June) high - 28124. We should also expect a break of the high before selling can actually happen. July pip range is 400 pips which are average monthly pip movement of GBPUSD which is convincing enough for a sell since it is at the confluence with a recent resistance.

COT report also helping the scenario that depicts how the sellers are building up momentum.

As you now I can be wrong and anything can happen so be mindful of R: R.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Jul 26 13-20-16.png Size: 54 KB
Please always wait for PA before taking any position.

Peace
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,134
  • Jul 26, 2020 2:22pm Jul 26, 2020 2:22pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The premarket analysis posted last weekend proved correct. GBPUSD Daily, trend is bullish against S @ 1.2480. A clear break of major R @ 1.28 will open 1.30 and 1.32 as next targets H4, trend is bullish against S @ 1.2650 Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: GBP short 15K vs 14K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K Summary: stay bullish against S @ 1.2650, reassess if 1.2650 fails {image} {image}
For the first time, me and the senior man have different views ....
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,135
  • Jul 26, 2020 2:51pm Jul 26, 2020 2:51pm
Quoting Roszey
{quote} For the first time, me and the senior man have different views ....
haha, it's not the first time. Last week, you went short from 1.27 ish and I went long targeting 1.28 ;-). That being said 1.28 is a very important level. That's why I tried shorting the pound from that level on Friday. Sometimes there is clarity, other times, you need to wait.
  • #7,136
  • Jul 26, 2020 9:54pm Jul 26, 2020 9:54pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The premarket analysis posted last weekend proved correct. GBPUSD Daily, trend is bullish against S @ 1.2480. A clear break of major R @ 1.28 will open 1.30 and 1.32 as next targets H4, trend is bullish against S @ 1.2650 Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: GBP short 15K vs 14K short last week. Shorts increased by 1K Summary: stay bullish against S @ 1.2650, reassess if 1.2650 fails {image} {image}
GBPUSD, long trade update
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH1 7262020.png Size: 34 KB
  • #7,137
  • Edited 10:12pm Jul 26, 2020 10:01pm | Edited 10:12pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} It's only a matter of time before 106 breaks. I'm revising the target from 106 to 102. {image}
USDJPY, added short on retracement
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPYM30 72720202.png Size: 38 KB
  • #7,138
  • Jul 26, 2020 10:16pm Jul 26, 2020 10:16pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The premarket analysis posted last weekend proved correct. EURUSD Daily, trend is bullish against S @ 1.1370. Next targets are 1.18, 1.20, and 1.22 H4, trend is bullish against S @ 1.1540 Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: EUR long 125K vs 111K long last week. Longs increased by 14K. EUR longs are the largest since April 2018 Summary: stay bullish against S @ 1.1540. EURUSD has been going up vertically, while there is still room to the upside, these kind of moves , most likely, will be followed by a v-shaped reversal....
EURUSD, pending sell @ 1.18, confluence of fib 0.61, former R, and round number
  • #7,139
  • Jul 26, 2020 10:43pm Jul 26, 2020 10:43pm
EURUSD, short scalp
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15 726.png Size: 30 KB
  • #7,140
  • Jul 26, 2020 11:12pm Jul 26, 2020 11:12pm
Quoting shahab8b
EURUSD, short scalp {image}
EURUSD, lets see if it can give a few more pips before taking off again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDM15 7272020.png Size: 30 KB
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