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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #1,501
  • Jul 15, 2020 4:35am Jul 15, 2020 4:35am
The market is really floating and unemployment is increasing. We can just wait and keep our eye on the upcoming scenario. Hopefully, all of this will be over soon.
  • #1,502
  • Jul 15, 2020 9:39am Jul 15, 2020 9:39am
COVID has severely damaged the trading markets, so therefore, I think that the US trading markets will plummet.
  • #1,503
  • Jul 15, 2020 1:30pm Jul 15, 2020 1:30pm
Quoting Igrok
meanwhile I have come up with another idea in regards to the DXY future behavior... looking at the chart that was showing all the signs of building a new diamond, I couldn't make any sense of that fast drop to 94.65 and the following spike back up to 102.99... from my point of view it didn't have any technical necessity, which is a rare case for the markets... though today I think I can offer a suggestion that might actually answer this questions and resolve the problem... here is a different and quite plausible version of the picture what I think...
Hi Igor. today the rising line of the diamond was touched. Can we now expect the dollar index to go up and trade accordingly. What is your opinion?
Regards
  • #1,504
  • Jul 16, 2020 4:02am Jul 16, 2020 4:02am
I think the DJIA also had an interesting touch recently, maybe these could coincide ?
  • #1,505
  • Jul 18, 2020 1:42am Jul 18, 2020 1:42am
Quoting Crypt0321
COVID has severely damaged the trading markets, so therefore, I think that the US trading markets will plummet.
I used to think so too, I used to think the current rally was simply a bear market rally, with another crash to come, but I'm not so sure anymore. The Fed will support this market with whatever it takes for as long as it takes. The easy money is made by buying the dips.
  • #1,506
  • Jul 18, 2020 2:32am Jul 18, 2020 2:32am
Quoting Sc11
{quote} I used to think so too, I used to think the current rally was simply a bear market rally, with another crash to come, but I'm not so sure anymore. The Fed will support this market with whatever it takes for as long as it takes. The easy money is made by buying the dips.
and when enough participants do exactly that the money / liquidity will be to the downside its happened before.
  • #1,507
  • Jul 18, 2020 3:55am Jul 18, 2020 3:55am
Quoting Edd111111
{quote} and when enough participants do exactly that the money / liquidity will be to the downside its happened before.
Agree as there is a total disconnect between wall st and main st, but the difficulty is predicting when the big crash will surely come. This rally may go on for a few more months, another year, maybe 2, 5 or more years. Do you stay on the sidelines until then or do you short?
  • #1,508
  • Jul 18, 2020 4:14am Jul 18, 2020 4:14am
Since i started trading and stumbled across this forum there was always someone screaming about how the sky is falling

throigh all the phases of the past 12 years.. always ... the sky has been falling

well ... i still wake up every morning..... the charts still look the same and the sun rises nice as it did 12 years ago

make hey while the sun shines. And be scared... like they told ya =p


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PHFzLR7wJUI
Time hides Nothing
  • #1,509
  • Jul 18, 2020 10:54pm Jul 18, 2020 10:54pm
Cindy, yes i have to agree with you as well, i started trading in 2012 and every year since the pundits have predicted a major market crash and burn, sure we have had Trump's election surprise December 2016 , then December 2018 and now Feb/March 2020 but each time the market recovered quickly and made higher highs.

interest rates cannot be raised, and nnTrillion + debt accumulated cannot be repaid, it can only be inflated away.
QE/Bailouts/money printing will continue to inflate the stock indexes, DJ, S&P , Nasdac etc.. there is no where else to put the continually diluting buying power.
MMT as we once new it is dead.

But on the plus side i lived in your country for 6 years and had the time of my life. Xavier Rudd is one of my favourite Aussie musicians, top Guy, and a gun Surfer :-)
Old Dog Kiwi
  • #1,510
  • Jul 19, 2020 5:38am Jul 19, 2020 5:38am
Quoting Sc11
{quote} Agree as there is a total disconnect between wall st and main st, but the difficulty is predicting when the big crash will surely come. This rally may go on for a few more months, another year, maybe 2, 5 or more years. Do you stay on the sidelines until then or do you short?
Hi SC, you go short when you see a setup short, and you go long when you see a setup long. In Forex your always short something and long something else and this is true even in equity markets to a point. As Igor (and countless others) has pointed out make sure your setup allows for fairly tight stops, keeping that risk reward at an attractive ratio. FOMO or fear of missing out can be a great for account depletion so dont be to hasty and certainly stick to your proven strategy. This is all basic stuff that I am sure you are already aware of. What the disconnect between fundamentals and reality tells us is that either we are looking at the wrong fundamentals or we need to employ TA. Perhaps a trailing stop sell could be a strategy to allay the FOMO ?
  • #1,511
  • Jul 20, 2020 6:16am Jul 20, 2020 6:16am
Quoting swim
{quote} Hi, sir, if the dollar index falls, shouldn't the stock index go up? Forgive me for thinking simply.☺
not necessarily... if you compare one historic chart against another you will see that such a direct correlation hasn't always existed...
  • #1,512
  • Jul 20, 2020 6:18am Jul 20, 2020 6:18am
Quoting swim
{quote} Hi, sir. I reread your previous comments. You've said why the dollar index and the Dow Jones index fall at the same time. Combined with the chart you've drawn, I wonder why we can't go up at the same time before they fall at the same time. Although this is not very reasonable, it can fully verify your prediction and forgive me for my stupid analysis,
already answered this question above... such a direct inverted correlation can be broken any time...
  • #1,513
  • Jul 20, 2020 6:20am Jul 20, 2020 6:20am
Quoting Aoum
My view on USDX future {image}
I already expressed my opinion on this issue... the lower border of the horizontal channel on you chart is a magnet and it will be eventually reached and penetrated no matter what...
  • #1,514
  • Jul 20, 2020 6:21am Jul 20, 2020 6:21am
Quoting joeerickson
The market is really floating and unemployment is increasing. We can just wait and keep our eye on the upcoming scenario. Hopefully, all of this will be over soon.
it's a normal summer price action... interesting stuff usually starts after the first decade of August...
  • #1,515
  • Jul 20, 2020 6:24am Jul 20, 2020 6:24am
Quoting udoliesenfel
{quote} Hi Igor. today the rising line of the diamond was touched. Can we now expect the dollar index to go up and trade accordingly. What is your opinion? Regards
it's possible theoretically... but the key issue now is whether USDX and EUR/USD will be able to change the MMY... will see it quite soon...
  • #1,516
  • Jul 20, 2020 6:34am Jul 20, 2020 6:34am
Quoting CindyXXXX
Since i started trading and stumbled across this forum there was always someone screaming about how the sky is falling throigh all the phases of the past 12 years.. always ... the sky has been falling well ... i still wake up every morning..... the charts still look the same and the sun rises nice as it did 12 years ago make hey while the sun shines. And be scared... like they told ya =p https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PHFzLR7wJUI
I second aquavox's opinion and can say that it's such a great country of yours... I used to have some business in Hobart, Tasmania... great time it was...
in regards to long time market crash predictions I can only say that I didn't have such an opinion up to just recently... and already explained why... since there was an obvious continuation diamond formed on the DJI chart, the outcome for further substantial gains seemed quite natural...
  • #1,517
  • Jul 20, 2020 6:35am Jul 20, 2020 6:35am
Quoting Edd111111
{quote} Hi SC, you go short when you see a setup short, and you go long when you see a setup long. In Forex your always short something and long something else and this is true even in equity markets to a point. As Igor (and countless others) has pointed out make sure your setup allows for fairly tight stops, keeping that risk reward at an attractive ratio. FOMO or fear of missing out can be a great for account depletion so dont be to hasty and certainly stick to your proven strategy. This is all basic stuff that I am sure you are already aware...
agree completely... opinions lose money... bias is nothing, trading plan is everything regardless of the direction...
  • #1,518
  • Jul 20, 2020 6:36am Jul 20, 2020 6:36am
Quoting Crypt0321
COVID has severely damaged the trading markets, so therefore, I think that the US trading markets will plummet.
revisiting 2009 lows on the DJI and S&P is a must...
  • #1,519
  • Jul 20, 2020 1:51pm Jul 20, 2020 1:51pm
Quoting Igrok
{quote} it's possible theoretically... but the key issue now is whether USDX and EUR/USD will be able to change the MMY... will see it quite soon...
Hi Igor, could you please explain MMY
  • #1,520
  • Jul 20, 2020 1:54pm Jul 20, 2020 1:54pm
Sadly it's the end of my trading account not this crazy market
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