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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,041
  • Jul 17, 2020 2:55pm Jul 17, 2020 2:55pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} yeah, but DXY has to cooperate, I will wait for momentum to change in Dollar Index to the upside...Pattern (any) Price (PRZ) and MOM (TLB or hh-hl) equal trade entry.
how are u my friend..hope i grab some pips this week
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #7,042
  • Jul 17, 2020 3:07pm Jul 17, 2020 3:07pm
Quoting donfriday
{quote} how are u my friend..hope i grab some pips this week
donfriday, all good, thanks for asking. ...Done for the week, have a nice weekend Donfriaday and all...Next week same place, same hours, it's my new office here in shahab8b thread.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,043
  • Jul 17, 2020 3:11pm Jul 17, 2020 3:11pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} yeah, but DXY has to cooperate, I will wait for momentum to change in Dollar Index to the upside...Pattern (any) Price (PRZ) and MOM (TLB or hh-hl) equal trade entry.
what is your target for EU?
  • #7,044
  • Jul 17, 2020 3:23pm Jul 17, 2020 3:23pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} what is your target for EU?
same ol', same ol'...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU07.17.daily.png Size: 78 KB
now interesting chart of EU with ATR and the trade taken after completion of AB=CD pattern...do you remember my rule 80-120% of daily ATR(14)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ.07.17.1H.png Size: 78 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,045
  • Jul 17, 2020 3:33pm Jul 17, 2020 3:33pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} same ol', same ol'...{image}now interesting chart of EU with ATR and the trade taken after completion of AB=CD pattern...do you remember my rule 80-120% of daily ATR(14){image}
Thanks. I think we will get that 1.15 next week. Yes, I remember that, I scalped from 1.1440, but it's going nowhere, I'm just gonna close it before the close.
  • #7,046
  • Jul 18, 2020 10:00am Jul 18, 2020 10:00am
GBPUSD
Daily, trend is bullish against S @ 1.2480
H4, consolidation, possibly a triangle formation
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: GBP short 14K vs 16K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K
Summary: stay bullish against S @ 1.2480, switch to short if 1.2480 fails.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-5H4 718.png Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD-5Daily 718.png Size: 32 KB
  • #7,047
  • Jul 18, 2020 10:13am Jul 18, 2020 10:13am
EURUSD,
Daily, trend is bullish against S @ 1.1170, but then trend shows signs of exhaustion with the RSI bearish divergence
H4, bullish against S @ 1.1370,
Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: EUR long 111K vs 104K long last week. Longs increased by 7K
Summary: stay bullish against S @ 1.1370, switch to short for a counter trend trade if 1.1370 fails.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-5H4 718.png Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD-5Daily 718.png Size: 48 KB
  • #7,048
  • Jul 18, 2020 11:37am Jul 18, 2020 11:37am
[quote=shahab8b;13066407 Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: GBP short 14K vs 16K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K Summary: stay bullish against S @ 1.2480, switch to short if 1.2480 fails. {image} {image}[/quote]
Can you kindly englithen on COT reports.. I have mot really mastered it. Thanks
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,049
  • Jul 19, 2020 3:35am Jul 19, 2020 3:35am
Here is what is think for the next upcoming week.
GU has held up in some strong support zone. As you can see from the chart it is trapped in the 2500 and 2550 regions. Hene a break of 2550 will expose 2600 and 2700.
Currently, the bias for the month is Bullish which has made 310pips range which is almost 50% of the July average pip range. The next 50% may likely complete the month at a higher price. Only two weeks more to go. Let see what happens

I may be wrong. These are just my observations.
Peace.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot at Jul 19 08-25-35.png Size: 97 KB
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,050
  • Jul 19, 2020 6:29am Jul 19, 2020 6:29am
Quoting Roszey
{quote} Can you kindly englithen on COT reports.. I have mot really mastered it. Thanks
I just simply look at the overall speculating non-commercial positioning and the trend (if they are increasing or decreasing their bet). If the trend in COT data corroborates the price action, I'll have more confidence in trading in that direction. For short term trades (most of my trades ), I trade based on the price action. For in-depth interpretation of COT data you can look at kuroro001 or v2vboni's threads.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: COT GU.PNG Size: 94 KB
  • #7,051
  • Jul 19, 2020 6:48am Jul 19, 2020 6:48am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I just simply look at the overall speculating non-commercial positioning and the trend (if they are increasing or decreasing their bet). If the trend in COT data corroborates the price action, I'll have more confidence in trading in that direction. For short term trades (most of my trades ), I trade based on the price action. For in-depth interpretation of COT data you can look at kuroro001 or v2vboni's threads. {image}
Thanks boss
Le$$ I$ More
  • #7,052
  • Edited 9:08am Jul 19, 2020 8:53am | Edited 9:08am
shahab8b, thanks for the shout in my profile, I saw it yesterday...You are a very kind man, maybe to kind?...
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,053
  • Jul 19, 2020 9:07am Jul 19, 2020 9:07am
Quoting Coreg2004
UCHF close to complete bullish bat pattern... {image}
so far we have it where we wanted...what is the next possible play after bat pattern?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCHF.07.17.1H.EOW.png Size: 83 KB

Just recognize what pattern is forming on "this" TF chart and go with it. Know when the pattern is invalidated so playing defense is important too. Don't you ever be ashamed of taking 20 pips profit especially if you are in front of the computer and you can always reenter the trade if the new opportunity arise.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3waves.PNG Size: 30 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ABC_12345.PNG Size: 41 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,054
  • Jul 19, 2020 9:45am Jul 19, 2020 9:45am
Quoting shahab8b
GBPUSD Daily, trend is bullish against S @ 1.2480 H4, consolidation, possibly a triangle formation Weekly FX speculative positioning data from the CFTC: GBP short 14K vs 16K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 2K Summary: stay bullish against S @ 1.2480, switch to short if 1.2480 fails. {image} {image}
Yes, shahab8b, (you recognize them much earlier-triangles) when we see a retracement of 78.6-88.6% repeating itself after another wave is formed (coiling) possibility of forming a triangle seems increasing. A pattern of complex correction also sways us to be aware of it.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU07.17.2H.EOW.png Size: 99 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: doublethree.PNG Size: 113 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,055
  • Jul 19, 2020 4:59pm Jul 19, 2020 4:59pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} so far we have it where we wanted...what is the next possible play after bat pattern?{image} Just recognize what pattern is forming on "this" TF chart and go with it. Know when the pattern is invalidated so playing defense is important too. Don't you ever be ashamed of taking 20 pips profit especially if you are in front of the computer and you can always reenter the trade if the new opportunity arise.{image}{image}
Yes, it's going in the right direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCHFH4 7192020.png Size: 55 KB
  • #7,056
  • Jul 19, 2020 5:04pm Jul 19, 2020 5:04pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Yes, shahab8b, (you recognize them much earlier-triangles) when we see a retracement of 78.6-88.6% repeating itself after another wave is formed (coiling) possibility of forming a triangle seems increasing. A pattern of complex correction also sways us to be aware of it. {image} {image}
Thanks for the charts Coreg. Yes, there are smaller and larger triangle formations at play here. I expect some choppy movements in the mean time.
  • #7,057
  • Jul 19, 2020 8:59pm Jul 19, 2020 8:59pm
EURUSD, a possible double top H4
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 4h.PNG Size: 117 KB
  • #7,058
  • Jul 20, 2020 7:44am Jul 20, 2020 7:44am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Yes, shahab8b, (you recognize them much earlier-triangles) when we see a retracement of 78.6-88.6% repeating itself after another wave is formed (coiling) possibility of forming a triangle seems increasing. A pattern of complex correction also sways us to be aware of it. {image} {image}
Anything can happen but.......GU hit 120% daily ATR(14) ...longs caution required...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU07.20.30M..png Size: 85 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,059
  • Jul 20, 2020 8:15am Jul 20, 2020 8:15am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} Anything can happen but.......GU hit 120% daily ATR(14) ...longs caution required... {image}
Yes, the triangle formation played out as expected. I plan to go long on a pull back.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 72020.PNG Size: 64 KB
  • #7,060
  • Jul 20, 2020 8:37am Jul 20, 2020 8:37am
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes, the triangle formation played out as expected. I plan to go long on a pull back. {image}
shahab8b, GU might have a monster day ...but I was too quick to close my longs @1.2636...deep correction during Tokyo session messed up my head...I have to have an explanation for the lack of patience
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RangeTrading.PNG Size: 30 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DX07.20.60M.png Size: 81 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
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