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FX investing: mid/long term ideas

  • #81
  • Jun 21, 2020 8:16am Jun 21, 2020 8:16am
Quoting YYZ
{quote} AUDUSD too? on w1 it looks like crush ready .
AUD is looking topish, but i wouldn't rule out another quick move up before going deep short

But i just wouldn't buy AUD now, too high

weekly system below
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COT: The precious data ignored
  • #82
  • Jun 21, 2020 11:00am Jun 21, 2020 11:00am
MXN assets managers #1

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Shall we get worried about this massive position from the assets managers?
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #83
  • Jul 11, 2020 3:59am Jul 11, 2020 3:59am
USD index Dealers #1

Why you need to get worried if you are short dollar...

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Dealers are very long now, buy side is going short on bottom? not a smart idea...
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #84
  • Edited 1:31am Jul 17, 2020 1:18am | Edited 1:31am
Hello, great thread. Will be here often.

It looks like you were right on GBPUSD. What is on you radar now?
I'm looking at AUDUSD to SELL but can't find good SL and TP right now... Will see.

Thanks again.
  • #85
  • Jul 17, 2020 5:43pm Jul 17, 2020 5:43pm
Quoting kuroro001
GBPCAD investment idea #3 {image} Dealers are ruling the GBPCAD. Big net long and big net shorts are moving prices. But lately? its getting flat {image} Money managers net position is net long. Whenever they increase too much a net position, it means it can reverse {image} Weekly system is close to a buy than a sell, but it can go down nicely to show a strong buy {image} Daily system is still a strong buy
Hey, your thread is very intriguing and informative but Im wondering where you find this data that separates the dealers and the money managers and the asset managers?
LazerBeam
  • #86
  • Jul 18, 2020 6:30am Jul 18, 2020 6:30am
Quoting Eagle-Eye
Hello, great thread. Will be here often. It looks like you were right on GBPUSD. What is on you radar now? I'm looking at AUDUSD to SELL but can't find good SL and TP right now... Will see. Thanks again.
Thank you, i got lucky
I'll post a few charts over the week end. EUR, JPY, CHF are very interesting


Quoting LazerBeam
{quote} Hey, your thread is very intriguing and informative but Im wondering where you find this data that separates the dealers and the money managers and the asset managers?
Here :
https://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/C...ssed/index.htm

Under Traders in financial futures for currencies/index/bunds
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #87
  • Jul 18, 2020 6:50am Jul 18, 2020 6:50am
EUR : Dumb money are getting too dumb?

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Dealers are going very short, more shorts than even the 1,25 fall.

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Assets managers are going long like crazy. All time high long. I would think they would need to cool off their positions before a rally is staged

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Daily system is saying its overstretched to the upside, retrace/reversal needed

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Weekly system agree with the daily system and the COT report.
Its clearly NOT the time to be long term long here
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #88
  • Jul 18, 2020 11:07am Jul 18, 2020 11:07am
CHF to fall soon?

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Dealers keep accumulating shorts, meaning dumb money is pouring into longs...how long until it all reverses hard?

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Assets managers are going all in...buying more as we rise. Don't hold their bag once they start unloading it

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Here is a chart of all longs, from all markets participants. They are clearly very long, hitting 60%, highest in 4 years. Its time to get worried

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Weekly system of USDCHF (inverted compared to CHF) is confirming the potential fall of CHF.

As USDCHF keeps falling, one should look for some good long term long
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #89
  • Jul 18, 2020 2:41pm Jul 18, 2020 2:41pm
USDJPY more shorts to come?

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USDJPY dealers are going very long, dumb money is going short strongly....they can still increase

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Assets managers are very shorts....

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Looking at the short side only, They are very short, at a past turning point


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Weekly system is not saying we are ready to move, and that's why i'm skeptical still...

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Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy5.PNG Size: 10 KB
Another system here, saying sell signal prevails, and it could head below 105 before even seeing a long signal

To follow....
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #90
  • Jul 18, 2020 5:25pm Jul 18, 2020 5:25pm
Quoting kuroro001
USDJPY more shorts to come?
Ok, I am confused. You were saying smart money is buying UJ and dumb money is selling UJ. So why should dumb money win and get their shorts?
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #91
  • Jul 19, 2020 1:46am Jul 19, 2020 1:46am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} Ok, I am confused. You were saying smart money is buying UJ and dumb money is selling UJ. So why should dumb money win and get their shorts?
Dumb money can win lots of time, they are losing once the market think its an extreme position
The hardest part is to spot the extreme
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #92
  • Jul 19, 2020 2:26am Jul 19, 2020 2:26am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Dumb money can win lots of time, they are losing once the market think its an extreme position The hardest part is to spot the extreme
With dealers being the most long in years and assetm being the most short, shouldn't it be an easy way up?

And when I look at technicals, weekly and monthly point towards 109-112.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #93
  • Jul 19, 2020 3:20am Jul 19, 2020 3:20am
Quoting OnlineAddict
{quote} With dealers being the most long in years and assetm being the most short, shouldn't it be an easy way up? And when I look at technicals, weekly and monthly point towards 109-112.
Yes you are right, it should go one way up....its just the technical that worries me, PA is not that weak

+ if all assets are correlated and equities starts a july/august drop, UJ may follow before bouncing back

We are in a "worry" area for UJ anyway, i just can't go short here
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #94
  • Jul 19, 2020 3:47am Jul 19, 2020 3:47am
EURGBP to continue to rise?

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Dealers are very very short. Its time to worry really

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Assets managers very long, they are all in, don't hold their bag once they start dumping it

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Weekly system is saying price is not ready for a drop, which could mean another big upside before the huge reversal

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Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp4.PNG Size: 17 KB
Another system is telling to keep shorting so far

Its a 3 to 1 (bears to bulls)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #95
  • Jul 22, 2020 5:38am Jul 22, 2020 5:38am
Quoting kuroro001
EUR : Dumb money are getting too dumb? {image} Dealers are going very short, more shorts than even the 1,25 fall. {image} Assets managers are going long like crazy. All time high long. I would think they would need to cool off their positions before a rally is staged {image} Daily system is saying its overstretched to the upside, retrace/reversal needed {image} Weekly system agree with the daily system and the COT report. Its clearly NOT the time to be long term long here
Assets managers still long positions?
  • #96
  • Jul 22, 2020 5:45am Jul 22, 2020 5:45am
Quoting General Lee
{quote} Assets managers still long positions?
Very much, highest ever

Probably why euro is going up like crazy
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #97
  • Jul 22, 2020 5:57am Jul 22, 2020 5:57am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Very much, highest ever Probably why euro is going up like crazy
can you post new COT chart specialy assets managers?
  • #98
  • Jul 22, 2020 6:01am Jul 22, 2020 6:01am
Quoting General Lee
{quote} can you post new COT chart specialy assets managers?
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...13066288#reply

Check the second chart on this post, green one
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #99
  • Jul 27, 2020 2:54am Jul 27, 2020 2:54am
Quoting kuroro001
EUR : Dumb money are getting too dumb? {image} Dealers are going very short, more shorts than even the 1,25 fall. {image} Assets managers are going long like crazy. All time high long. I would think they would need to cool off their positions before a rally is staged {image} Daily system is saying its overstretched to the upside, retrace/reversal needed {image} Weekly system agree with the daily system and the COT report. Its clearly NOT the time to be long term long here
Any view about eurusd mate?
  • #100
  • Jul 27, 2020 4:38am Jul 27, 2020 4:38am
Quoting General Lee
{quote} Any view about eurusd mate?
I would say longs are pumping the euro, and they are pumping it up at a very dangerous pace

Look below

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Euro index : Assets managers are very long, even more long at the top...

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EURUSD COT asset managers : Pumping longs at a level never seen before, watch out

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Weekly system is saying its going up too much...i wouldn't go long on weekly based on that
COT: The precious data ignored
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