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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #7,021
  • Jul 16, 2020 2:55pm Jul 16, 2020 2:55pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} update... {image}
Thanks for the chart Coreg. I will be more confident in bullish bias if the TL and S @ 1.2520 holds.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU TL.PNG Size: 57 KB
  • #7,022
  • Jul 16, 2020 3:03pm Jul 16, 2020 3:03pm
DXY, bouncing from S
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDXH4 g.png Size: 27 KB
  • #7,023
  • Jul 16, 2020 3:07pm Jul 16, 2020 3:07pm
Watch out traders...possible truncated 5th wave in DX index...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DX07.16.daily.png Size: 68 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: elliott-wave-cycle-truncation.gif Size: 12 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,024
  • Jul 16, 2020 3:13pm Jul 16, 2020 3:13pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} That's exactly what I've been thinking...but I have a different plan/strategy. Shahab, I wasn't as heavy as you because I traded futures ( $6.25 per point (constant value in futures)) but I unloaded everything before lunch when the price got into my PRZ suspecting difficulty going higher without retracement. Of course, I didn't expect such a violent move down but it happened. I am not saying my approach is better, I just trade with the target. Sometimes the price goes thru to the next level and I am "bird watcher" waiting for the next opportunity,...
You did well Coreg. I think GU is forming a big triangle, that explains the random sharp moves up and down. Also, EU might be in a topping process.
  • #7,025
  • Jul 16, 2020 3:32pm Jul 16, 2020 3:32pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} You did well Coreg. I think GU is forming a big triangle, that explains the random sharp moves up and down. Also, EU might be in a topping process.
With the characteristics of the iv-v move in the DX index, it was very hard to trade on higher TF for the last 8-10 days, but it happens from time to time. Important is to recognize it early enough ($hity wave)...I use extensively ATR(14)-similar to ADR and look to take profit or for reversal between 80-120%. For today ATR(14) was 110 pips plus 1.2520 support gave me 1.2630 level to watch out for...Yeah, I am rambling about my method of intraday trading hoping that something might be useful for others. My ego is in check, I had had my 15 minutes of fame so I am here only for interaction and if I can help with anything even better.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,026
  • Jul 16, 2020 3:49pm Jul 16, 2020 3:49pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} With the characteristics of the iv-v move in the DX index, it was very hard to trade on higher TF for the last 8-10 days, but it happens from time to time. Important is to recognize it early enough ($hity wave)...I use extensively ATR(14)-similar to ADR and look to take profit or for reversal between 80-120%. For today ATR(14) was 110 pips plus 1.2520 support gave me 1.2630 level to watch out for...Yeah, I am rambling about my method of intraday trading hoping that something might be useful for others. My ego is in check, I had had my 15...
The ATR is a very useful approach. I don't use if but I think I should. Regarding, my GU long trade, to make it worse, I had my short setup ready and not only I didn't use it, but also I kept my long trade where it should have been switched to short.

You are correct about the DXY/EU, you know how many times I tried to go long for +1.14, but I had to close because of those sharp down moves. It was not the best time for trading based on a long term bias
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU sh.PNG Size: 92 KB
  • #7,027
  • Jul 16, 2020 7:04pm Jul 16, 2020 7:04pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} The ATR is a very useful approach. I don't use if but I think I should. Regarding, my GU long trade, to make it worse, I had my short setup ready and not only I didn't use it, but also I kept my long trade where it should have been switched to short. You are correct about the DXY/EU, you know how many times I tried to go long for +1.14, but I had to close because of those sharp down moves. It was not the best time for trading based on a long term bias {image}
shahab8b, maybe try to combine with another method e.g. weekly range trading so you will focus on the smaller picture (like last 5 days)... explore to better tune the strategy you use until you will be very comfortable with ranging and/or trending days, just the thought...Of course, my approach is not the only method to trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU07.17.1H.png Size: 93 KB
and the EU...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU07.17.60M.png Size: 90 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,028
  • Jul 17, 2020 6:36am Jul 17, 2020 6:36am
EURUSD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU flg.PNG Size: 80 KB
  • #7,029
  • Jul 17, 2020 6:54am Jul 17, 2020 6:54am
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, maybe try to combine with another method e.g. weekly range trading so you will focus on the smaller picture (like last 5 days)... explore to better tune the strategy you use until you will be very comfortable with ranging and/or trending days, just the thought...Of course, my approach is not the only method to trade.{image}and the EU...{image}
Thanks Coreg, your approach works well. There is always room for improvement.
  • #7,030
  • Jul 17, 2020 9:51am Jul 17, 2020 9:51am
going short EU, intraday, possible double top 5m tf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU sm dt.PNG Size: 66 KB
  • #7,031
  • Jul 17, 2020 11:03am Jul 17, 2020 11:03am
UCHF close to complete bullish bat pattern...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCHF.07.17.30M.png Size: 100 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,032
  • Jul 17, 2020 12:03pm Jul 17, 2020 12:03pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} ABC next?... {image} {image}
update in AU...Which pattern would you play, ABC or WXY?...or just scalp.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AU.07.17.30M.png Size: 96 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,033
  • Jul 17, 2020 12:25pm Jul 17, 2020 12:25pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} update in AU...Which pattern would you play, ABC or WXY?...or just scalp. {image}
I'd play the bullish WXY setup. But I'd like to see the development on EU first. I'm sure they want the retail stops above 1.145 (yesterday candle tricked many traders to go short), and from there we might get some clarity.
  • #7,034
  • Jul 17, 2020 12:46pm Jul 17, 2020 12:46pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} I'd play the bullish WXY setup. But I'd like to see the development on EU first. I'm sure they want the retail stops above 1.145 (yesterday candle tricked many traders to go short), and from there we might get some clarity.
shahab8b, check this out...some Elliot Wave patterns pdf to keep handy...
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf elliottindicator.pdf   1.4 MB | 656 downloads
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,035
  • Jul 17, 2020 12:52pm Jul 17, 2020 12:52pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} shahab8b, check this out...some Elliot Wave patterns pdf to keep handy... {image}
Thanks, do you use the indicator?
  • #7,036
  • Jul 17, 2020 1:12pm Jul 17, 2020 1:12pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Thanks, do you use the indicator?
WXY seems to be working quite good in GU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU07.17.30M..png Size: 75 KB
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,037
  • Jul 17, 2020 1:41pm Jul 17, 2020 1:41pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} WXY seems to be working quite good in GU {image}
Yes, that was the perfect long entry for GU.
  • #7,038
  • Jul 17, 2020 2:17pm Jul 17, 2020 2:17pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} Yes, that was the perfect long entry for GU.
I will check UCHF on Sunday/Monday. I don't want to hold the trade over the weekend especially when the picture is not clear enough yet...I didn't trade GU today, pity.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
  • #7,039
  • Jul 17, 2020 2:31pm Jul 17, 2020 2:31pm
Quoting Coreg2004
{quote} I will check UCHF on Sunday/Monday. I don't want to hold the trade over the weekend especially when the picture is not clear enough yet...I didn't trade GU today, pity.
UCHF should be a good trade.
  • #7,040
  • Jul 17, 2020 2:38pm Jul 17, 2020 2:38pm
Quoting shahab8b
{quote} UCHF should be a good trade.
yeah, but DXY has to cooperate, I will wait for momentum to change in Dollar Index to the upside...Pattern (any) Price (PRZ) and MOM (TLB or hh-hl) equal trade entry.
Always trade your own plan...I don't provide trading signals.
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