Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2597 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #51,921
  • Jul 10, 2020 4:12am Jul 10, 2020 4:12am
Quoting billytt
{quote} If you have actual times, candles, opens etc you can collate stats. Frequency Distribution Stats. A FD stat cannot lie, it is pure fact. Example, trying to obtain stats on a 1st resistance is tricky (what ever). even if you have 50/50 results, whether it will break or retrace, you will find there is a lot of whip at times. What look for is, trigger enter, bang, get out. If it doesn't we trade it. off the next trigger (stat)
Hi Billy

Hope you are well and having a good week.

I'm just looking into an edge and I'm going to build some stats up from a manual back test (which I hate BTW!).

When I do this I normally use 12 months of data and not a number of signals (i.e. 100 or whatever) but this one is at London Open and happens not too frequently.

What is a benchmark number for you to determine an edge?

Cheers
  • #51,922
  • Jul 10, 2020 4:15am Jul 10, 2020 4:15am
Quoting lemercenaire
Guys, to take this to its extreme - and this continues the Random Walk theme we touched on earlier - you could (and yes, before anyone asks, I have done this) immediately enter a Buy and a Sell at the open (of whatever) and then simply run with it as above. That double set - a close-cropped locked-in counter - becomes your first line-in-the-sand and you manage it all from there, adding in and maximising the first real momo move and closing that and working the retreating negative leg. Rinse, repeat. Great fun.
Tried this GU the other day Lem. Worked quite well. Bought and sold at the same time, roughly. Waited for a big move. Then moved over to the 5 minute chart. The long was massively in the plus. As soon as I saw 3 red bars on the 5 minute chart, I closed the long, and then let the short retreat for 30+ pips. If price had returned to where I originally closed the long, I would have bought again, and waited for the next move.
  • #51,923
  • Jul 10, 2020 4:30am Jul 10, 2020 4:30am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Tried this GU the other day Lem. Worked quite well. Bought and sold at the same time, roughly. Waited for a big move. Then moved over to the 5 minute chart. The long was massively in the plus. As soon as I saw 3 red bars on the 5 minute chart, I closed the long, and then let the short retreat for 30+ pips. If price had returned to where I originally closed the long, I would have bought again, and waited for the next move.
that is like machine trading, that is good.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #51,924
  • Jul 10, 2020 4:42am Jul 10, 2020 4:42am
Quoting Fagin
{quote} Hi Billy Hope you are well and having a good week. I'm just looking into an edge and I'm going to build some stats up from a manual back test (which I hate BTW!). When I do this I normally use 12 months of data and not a number of signals (i.e. 100 or whatever) but this one is at London Open and happens not too frequently. What is a benchmark number for you to determine an edge? Cheers
Look for something consistent.
look for things which happen every day,, (that's is best)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily .png Size: 23 KB

chart above is e/u daily, going back to 8th June,
can you see that most of the bars have wicks, call these Fakes etc, but they happen a lot.

this is the sort of thing to look for, consistencies.

edit, and then maybe adapt what Lem says about drawing a line to trade.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #51,925
  • Jul 10, 2020 4:46am Jul 10, 2020 4:46am
DR1 here we come. Mess about at the pivot first. NY will do it. Plan.

Edit: could be wrong !
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD(£)H1.png Size: 76 KB
  • #51,926
  • Jul 10, 2020 5:11am Jul 10, 2020 5:11am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Thought about you when we drew 2-2. Valuable point for both teams. NUFC safe now. West Ham will be ok.
Yes..Magpies have done well, WHU need to step up..!!
Norwich vs WHU on TV live here in Oz tmro...yayyy..!!
Onwards and upwards...
  • #51,927
  • Edited 5:36am Jul 10, 2020 5:22am | Edited 5:36am
and +4.6 EU 1h break. Will wait for the Death zone.
edit: that would also be 00 4h break
  • #51,928
  • Jul 10, 2020 5:22am Jul 10, 2020 5:22am
Quoting soccerfan
{quote} Yes..Magpies have done well, WHU need to step up..!! Norwich vs WHU on TV live here in Oz tmro...yayyy..!!
Good luck tomorrow need 3 points and Norwich look like they're going down anyway.
  • #51,929
  • Jul 10, 2020 5:33am Jul 10, 2020 5:33am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Tried this GU the other day Lem. Worked quite well. Bought and sold at the same time, roughly. Waited for a big move. Then moved over to the 5 minute chart. The long was massively in the plus. As soon as I saw 3 red bars on the 5 minute chart, I closed the long, and then let the short retreat for 30+ pips. If price had returned to where I originally closed the long, I would have bought again, and waited for the next move.
Textbook.
  • #51,930
  • Jul 10, 2020 5:37am Jul 10, 2020 5:37am
Quoting birdland
{quote} interesting discussion from yesterdays night! but sometimes i could not follow... for example who is he? and do you have a link to this thread? or did i understand everything wrong and its much easier;-)
Sorry guys, some confusion due to BC and I having an in joke and guessing games ensue, lol.

For one thing "he" is not who you may think.
  • #51,931
  • Jul 10, 2020 5:50am Jul 10, 2020 5:50am
Hey guys how is everyone one doing?
grabbed a few off EU and Cable 00-00 H4 low break.
now long on both (break of the high) got my tp on cable just below DP and EU I’m going to let run for a bit hunting adr
managed to slash my arm open today whilst installing my new roof .... 4 stitches later
banana head!
  • #51,932
  • Jul 10, 2020 6:12am Jul 10, 2020 6:12am
Quoting tommiho
{quote} lol on the same page with you here. So I went on the alien hunt, obvious choice forexalien. Looked at his posts but didn't spot any connection. After that another search but specifically for The Other Galaxy treading and you can guess who mentions it the most in his posts Will look more in to lem's posts to get to the bottom of this.
I have messaged yourself and those others confused by Broke and I having a bit of an in joke last night, lol. That's what happens to you if you work graveyard .

Anyway, as I explain, you are actually in the completely wrong galaxy and as for the alien...well, soooooooooooooooooo far off .
  • #51,933
  • Jul 10, 2020 6:13am Jul 10, 2020 6:13am
Quoting claudia1
DR1 here we come. Mess about at the pivot first. NY will do it. Plan. Edit: could be wrong ! {image}
Pivot hit. Look for a pull back then let NY do the rest.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD(£)H1.png Size: 76 KB
  • #51,934
  • Jul 10, 2020 6:20am Jul 10, 2020 6:20am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I have messaged yourself and those others confused by Broke and I having a bit of an in joke last night, lol. That's what happens to you if you work graveyard . Anyway, as I explain, you are actually in the completely wrong galaxy and as for the alien...well, soooooooooooooooooo far off .
started to have my suspicions after the fruitless search
  • #51,935
  • Jul 10, 2020 6:33am Jul 10, 2020 6:33am
Continuation from last night.

As previously noted, The DAX and AJ hit profit.

GU Bias was Long and it hit tp at around 10:40.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM5eventuallyhittpwithbiaslong9th-10thJuly2020.png Size: 38 KB


NU didn't quite clear the +2, so you will either be still waiting or taken a scratch trade.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSDM5almosthitTPwithLongBias.MaybeScratch9th-10thJuly2020.png Size: 41 KB


Both of those, had of course already taken profit if played both ways.
  • #51,936
  • Jul 10, 2020 7:26am Jul 10, 2020 7:26am
+6.6 GU DZ break, now will shut up because it is starting to look like I'm showing off
  • #51,937
  • Jul 10, 2020 7:43am Jul 10, 2020 7:43am
Quoting tommiho
+6.6 GU DZ break, now will shut up because it is starting to look like I'm showing off
if you are making ££ tell everyone.
This week has been harder.
Or I should say, not as easy lol.
Good trading,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #51,938
  • Jul 10, 2020 8:00am Jul 10, 2020 8:00am
Quoting billytt
{quote} if you are making ££ tell everyone. This week has been harder. Or I should say, not as easy lol. Good trading,
Billy, all I tried to do was to put in a good use what you all so generously shared here. So big thanks goes to all of you!
  • #51,939
  • Jul 10, 2020 8:03am Jul 10, 2020 8:03am
In a few weeks when we see this week etc, they will be stats, short range dailys and nothing spectacular, lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #51,940
  • Jul 10, 2020 8:05am Jul 10, 2020 8:05am
Quoting tommiho
{quote} Billy, all I tried to do was to put in a good use what you all so generously shared here. So big thanks goes to all of you!
and big thanks to you bud, and yes we do try and help, Lem and Claudia posting awesome stuff.

Just keep it simple and watch the range.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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