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vsa with Malcolm

  • #33,241
  • Jul 8, 2020 11:30am Jul 8, 2020 11:30am
Continuing our SP analysis: When NY session closed yesterday, we had strong buying coming in. That buying halted the market and it started rolling over during overnight, with more buying, making London session bullish (even though it opened below previous London VA, A period penetrated and closed inside previous VA, "activating" the 80% VA fill rule. You can see the VA got filled in N period and price went beyond, after that we had a sell off). NY session opened below previous session value area, but quickly penetrated it on todayīs open (pushing the market in the opposite direction of London, which happens usually). There was no rejection to confirm the bearish bias when the first 30min bar closed inside of it, "activating" the 80% chance of VA fill, we have strength built in the background since yesterday NY end of session, you then could have tried to go long when B period started, and would have closed the position when price halted at the high of London session after climactic action and signs of weakness.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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You can see price halting at the high volume node here after climactic action, which is the high of London session, and also a standard deviation of a pitchfork (not drawn yet):

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More clues of strength in overnight:

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So here we opened a short at a very nice supply confluence zone, right at the classic 10:10 am reversal time:

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Partial profits and adjustment of stop loss:

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Adding to position:

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Stopped out of all positions, suffering a 6 pt loss in the last position added, and 24pt profit on the two contracts that were still open. Add that to the 30pts earlier we already have 54 - 6 = 48 pts of profits for the day, you could stop trading today, very nice trading day.

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  • #33,242
  • Jul 8, 2020 11:44am Jul 8, 2020 11:44am
Update: Opened another short after no demand behavior, tight stop a couple of ticks above the entry bar. Also compare the selling quality of the previous down move, and the buying quality of the choppy up move:

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  • #33,243
  • Jul 8, 2020 12:00pm Jul 8, 2020 12:00pm
Scratched trade at break even after breach of line in the sand:

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  • #33,244
  • Jul 8, 2020 12:11pm Jul 8, 2020 12:11pm
So far just observing, I feel like price will come down, but nothing to do now, no structure to lean against, no setup...

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  • #33,245
  • Jul 8, 2020 12:22pm Jul 8, 2020 12:22pm
Another short at the break of the simple demand line. Tight stop at the high of the entry bar:

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  • #33,246
  • Jul 8, 2020 12:27pm Jul 8, 2020 12:27pm
An interesting observation, at period H yesterday is where price started moving down, and today it seems to be repeating the behavior, our last short is on the money now:

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  • #33,247
  • Jul 8, 2020 12:31pm Jul 8, 2020 12:31pm
Update: Partial profits taken when price hit the median line, 2 contracts left. Volume increasing to the downside, which is a good sign for our short:

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  • #33,248
  • Edited 3:31pm Jul 8, 2020 2:59pm | Edited 3:31pm
Update:

Stopped out of the remaining two contracts for a profit of 2 pts. At first it seems that price would continue down, volume was increasing in the down moves, and then we had a big supply bar, but then in the very next bar we had no follow through, a "no supply" test printed, which should serve as warning for you. I move the stop a little bit below break even at this point. The next couple of bars went up with narrow range and no demand, which was looking good, but then price continued moving up and hit the stop with an upthrusting action and pop in volume, more supply. At this point was already possible to draw an uptrend channel and was possible to see the price respecting it, so the next time price visited the demand line, it printed a 2nd no supply test bar with even lower volume, where a long position was placed: we had bullish EvR, poor down flow, price respecting channel and no supply: screaming BUY. You can see how it was beautiful the way that the big supply bar got tested afterwards in those two picture perfect no supply test bars, in confluence with the demand line. After that was instant gratification with price moving up fast. Partial close at touch of the upper median line for a profit of 18 pts on the 1st contract, remaining positions were closed a couple of bars later when a no demand bar printed giving us more 32 pts. Price was overbought on trend channel and we are approaching the end of day, so wise to lock in profits if you are an intraday trader. A last trade was attempted after price touch the HVN of a supply area to the left, short position was opened as price move back inside the channel/pitchfork:

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PS: As I finished typing this post, the short position was stopped out for a loss of 12 points, and an aggressive trade was open as price returned back inside pitchfork:

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PS2: So today we had 114pts of profit and 18 pts of loss for a total of 96pts of profit, which is insanely good for the SP, as I said, even 10 pts per day is excellent. We still have one short open but prices havenīt updated yet for the overnight, high chances of getting stopped out on the position once the market resumes.
  • #33,249
  • Jul 8, 2020 3:41pm Jul 8, 2020 3:41pm
Last update for today: Yep stopped out of the last position for a small loss of 4 pts, normal. How much we lose is the only control we have over the market. You can see that even when everything align, in this case, we have price at the supply line of a regular channel and pitchfork, aka "overbought in trend channel", which is where we expect to see sellers appearing - at the supply line, and buyers at the demand line. So we have this confluence of high volume node of supply area to the left, both supply lines, an upthrusting action of the previous high, all that with no demand bars, there is nothing wrong with taking a short here, you MUST do it, it is just those times that does not work. This is a game of statistics. You can see how price kept flowing up with no volume, no demand bars. In this case it seems that price is moving up not because of demand, but because of a lack of supply:

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  • #33,250
  • Edited 3:08am Jul 9, 2020 2:47am | Edited 3:08am
Hi all,

I'm in scalping mode, my bias is long but i just use the short opportunity till around the blue level after that i will look for possible long maybe in US session ...

I maybe wrong ... lets see ....
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  • #33,251
  • Jul 9, 2020 3:23am Jul 9, 2020 3:23am
Quoting Cyberforex
Hi all, I'm in scalping mode, my bias is long but i just use the short opportunity till around the blue level after that i will look for possible long maybe in US session ... I maybe wrong ... lets see .... {image}
what pair is that, timeframe? it s like ur afraid to show that in case ur wrong..we all take losses. if u gonna post pls post analisys, reasons why u took the trade etc so that others like myself can see how the same market aproach is seen thro different eyes. that ofc if ur trading VSA. looks like GU and ur trying to get the pullback based on 2BR, pls correct me if i m wrong.
cheers
  • #33,252
  • Edited 4:27am Jul 9, 2020 4:05am | Edited 4:27am
Sorry, I forgot to write that this pair is GBPUSD H1 .... I'm not afraid to go wrong i just want to warn someone here if they want to go short based of my call, because sometimes i was wrong with my analysis too ... lol ..... But my risk is minimized i think my entries was optimized i will manual close if the price will go higher than london opening bar.

The reason why I went short simply because the price is overbought ... no just kidding ..lol.... the real reason is i saw weakness in long movement before london opening, i believe the professional london trader will not go long in this situation if they will go long they will retest all weakness in the background before they will bring the price up again ... it is the trading psychology ... they are many good technical trader here who expert in VSA I even dont understand what 2BR is... lol ... i will try to answer from the psychological side based on VSA, hopefully it can help to understand more about trading or more confusing ... lol.

I maybe wrong ...

Happy trading .....
  • #33,253
  • Edited 4:54am Jul 9, 2020 4:42am | Edited 4:54am
Quoting Cyberforex
Sorry, I forgot to write that this pair is GBPUSD H1 .... I'm not afraid to go wrong i just want to warn someone here if they want to go short based of my call, because sometimes i was wrong with my analysis too ... lol ..... But my risk is minimized i think my entries was optimized i will manual close if the price will go higher than london opening bar. The reason why I went short simply because the price is overbought ... no just kidding ..lol.... the real reason is i saw weakness in long movement before london opening, i believe the professional...
2BR+ 2bar reversal
took many losses myself trying to +scalp+ the pullbacks in an uptrend or downtrend.. thing is we never know when high vol might kick in and trend just resumes..ofc we look for levels where that might happen, but countless times price doesn t respect entirely those lines in the sand, so my rule is if no climactic vol at the top or bottom, no counter trend trades. also from my perspective on GU(i was long yesterday but closed it just before session switch last night) is that there are around 40 pips more till the 4hr swing high or previous resist, also that red bar was on highest vol of the day at that time, so if u just go short where they might have bought to resume trending move without waiting for confirmation, u have a high chance of getting run over like it happened to me countless times lol.
anyways, hope ur trade works out and thanks for pointing out ur reasons.
this is how i was looking at GU for a continuation this morning but price didn t reached my battle zone, and i don t use nothing other the 50 to 618 retracements, cos in my experience the shallow retracements like 38.2 have a higher chance of getting faded and price goes back to 618, and depending where u set ur SL u might get taken out and it resumes after.
cheers
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #33,254
  • Edited 7:06am Jul 9, 2020 5:30am | Edited 7:06am
Overnight analysis SP: As you can see, market went sideways right after I got stopped out yesterday trying to short the end of the session. Looks to me, analyzing the clues, that this range is re-accumulation instead of distribution, but we can never know for sure. A lot of buying inside the trading range, and the supply efforts produced no result, meaning someone is buying in there. Two nice opportunities to go long during overnight presented themselves. If the market wants to continue going up, it has to break through 3 levels of strong resistance: Yesterday high, high volume node and the 3 day high (which was a down day, wide range, probably a lot of supply in this level):

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London TPO analysis shows bullish sentiment at the moment:

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  • #33,255
  • Jul 9, 2020 5:32am Jul 9, 2020 5:32am
Thanks for your explanation @1odl, I still didnt close my positions because the last up bar looks like a weak bar ... so i will watch carefully how the price will go ... i have a good money management so it doesnt effect me if the price go wrong for a couple of pips ... lets see how the price will react in the new york season
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  • #33,256
  • Jul 9, 2020 6:06am Jul 9, 2020 6:06am
Quoting Cyberforex
Thanks for your explanation @1odl, I still didnt close my positions because the last up bar looks like a weak bar ... so i will watch carefully how the price will go ... i have a good money management so it doesnt effect me if the price go wrong for a couple of pips ... lets see how the price will react in the new york season {image}

I donīt wanna mess up your analysis. I took a look now at GBPUSD, in 1H it is in an uptrend, but it just hit a high volume node of a supply area to the left. But the immediate analysis shows strength. Thing is that in 1H price is dead in the middle of the trend channel, which is not a good spot for a trade, however, going down to 5min It was possible to draw another uptrend channel, where price just touched the demand line, and there is strength in the background. I would have opened a long with a tight stop right there.


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You can see there are two obstacles before the demand line of the 5min uptrend channel: the HVN and a local resistance:


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  • #33,257
  • Jul 9, 2020 6:19am Jul 9, 2020 6:19am
Quoting Gauer
{quote} I donīt wanna mess up your analysis. I took a look now at GBPUSD, in 1H it is in an uptrend, but it just hit a high volume node of a supply area to the left. But the immediate analysis shows strength. Thing is that in 1H price is dead in the middle of the trend channel, which is not a good spot for a trade, however, going down to 5min It was possible to draw another uptrend channel, where price just touched the demand line, and there is strength in the background. I would have opened a long with a tight stop right there. {image} {image}...
thing is the vol at that last point of control is medium to low, and as u also pointed out price is trending up, so for me, unless some nice high vol comes in(something that stands out over recent range, days) i wouldn t look to sell. ussually from what i ve noticed, SM love selling into fresh new ground, just above in this case of that 4h swing high that rejected price nicely, catching breakout traders long and so on..we might get up there and get a NS and price just continues(where suposed to be supply) etc..many variations and alternatives..but as it stands now i ll just watch GU and get some more info.

Thanks for your explanation @1odl, I still didnt close my positions because the last up bar looks like a weak bar ... so i will watch carefully how the price will go ... i have a good money management so it doesnt effect me if the price go wrong for a couple of pips ... lets see how the price will react in the new york season

LOL, i was about to ask u how do u manage ur risk since i m seeing ur using dollar cost averaging, which can be really powerfull or very risky in the hands of a newb trader. as long as u have a SL in place with the amount ur willing to lose and ur just splitting that risk to get a better price i see nothing wrong with that, altho u need mental toughness lol. good luck with ur trade.
cheers
  • #33,258
  • Jul 9, 2020 6:28am Jul 9, 2020 6:28am
Quoting Gauer
{quote} I donīt wanna mess up your analysis. I took a look now at GBPUSD, in 1H it is in an uptrend, but it just hit a high volume node of a supply area to the left. But the immediate analysis shows strength. Thing is that in 1H price is dead in the middle of the trend channel, which is not a good spot for a trade, however, going down to 5min It was possible to draw another uptrend channel, where price just touched the demand line, and there is strength in the background. I would have opened a long with a tight stop right there. {image} {image}...
Thanks Gauer nice explanation I'm agree with you, as I mention in my previous post I'm also still long bias but because of weakness of long movement in the background I'm waiting for the right zone to go long which i draw in my pic with the blue line. That is the same zone as @1odi draw in his pic as a battle zone.

and i said that i'm scalping mode that means I reduce my risk to minimum with just small lot ... so just for fun until I will find a good zone to go long again like yesterday.
  • #33,259
  • Jul 9, 2020 6:53am Jul 9, 2020 6:53am
yesterday was easy ... trading zone was very clear, so compare to today situation it is totally different you have still long bias but the price far above your ideal trading zone ... so you have the choice waiting the price to go in your zone where you are comfortable to go long (as trend follower) or act like professional trader (just in my dream ... lol) which manipulate the price to go in the zone where you will put your long position and attract the people to go short and if most people are going short then you will go long .... lol ...
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  • #33,260
  • Jul 9, 2020 7:03am Jul 9, 2020 7:03am
Quoting Gauer
Overnight analysis SP: As you can see, market went sideways right after I got stopped out yesterday trying to short the end of the session. Looks to me, analyzing the clues, that this range is accumulation instead of distribution, but we can never know for sure. A lot of buying inside the trading range, and the supply efforts produced no result, meaning someone is buying in there. Two nice opportunities to go long during overnight presented themselves. If the market wants to continue going up, it has to break through 3 levels of strong resistance:...

Great Analysis!!!
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