High Level Accuracy Method With Little To NO Draw-down | Page 198 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

High Level Accuracy Method – “3-bar pattern Indicator/Alert” 481 replies

Tools for High Level Accuracy Method 7 replies

bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies

MT4 Draw Symbol instead of Arrow, Draw n instead of square 2 replies

historical data accuracy puzzlement. 1 reply

Attachments: High Level Accuracy Method With Little To NO Draw-down
Exit Attachments

High Level Accuracy Method With Little To NO Draw-down

  • #3,941
  • Jun 27, 2020 4:48am Jun 27, 2020 4:48am
Quoting Swede
A trader from Singapore wanted to know how to filter trades using weekly pivots and the 3 bar engulfing method. So I will try to articulate how I use pivots with this method, but I must say they are TWO separate disciplines entirely, but pivots complement and add confluence to my trades. Davit is a master at trading weekly pivots, no question there. And he would be the first one to look at price action around his entries, and this is not all that different except for one thing......the 3 bar method here is to alert the retail trader when the market...
thx swede for your great post!

i have a question regarding davit pivots: on my chart they are a bit different to yours. so what are your numbers you write into the custom indicator box? thx.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: swede pivot.PNG Size: 74 KB
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #3,942
  • Edited 4:06pm Jun 27, 2020 2:43pm | Edited 4:06pm
Quoting procmail
{quote} Thank you for taking the time to elaborate on your trades. Using trade #5 as an example, I’m curious as to why the Engulfing candle should not engulf candles 1 and 2. Would it not hint at a more powerful reaction if the Bearish Engulfing candle can envelope both of them? Also, assuming the Stop Loss isn’t too far out, would you say that waiting for a retest before entry is important vs entering below the Engulfing candle (to go Short)? {quote} That’s a good illustration. To summarize, identify the trend so we trade in accordance to the direction...

Perhaps re read a bunch of the suggestions by FXC as to what constitutes the best 3 bar patterns.....all of them involve waiting for the retest. News or any type of market maker manipulation can cause a big explosive move, engulfing both candles. If you were to wait for the engulfing candle to close (which you always do because it confirms a move is starting, not just manipulation) you would have entered this in the 1.22 - 124 area. Then next candle only dropped another 10 pips and the next candle after that rocketed all the way back to the predetermined entry level....you would have faced at least a 25 pip draw down had you entered at the close of the engulfing candle or even worse if you had your stop above the swing high had price kept moving north.
To validate a 3 bar engulfing pattern, price must move away from the entry level and then come back to retest the level. Honestly I dont think I even had a 2 pip draw down on that one....it came back and instantly dropped to resume the trend.

here is an expanded view. Ps...sometimes the retrace to the entry level can take some time, so you really don’t need to be in a rush to enter.....see first chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2447D015-9F88-46B0-B1D8-0C42970C6A54.jpeg Size: 575 KB
Attached Image
  • #3,943
  • Jun 27, 2020 2:52pm Jun 27, 2020 2:52pm
Quoting birdland
{quote} thx swede for your great post! i have a question regarding davit pivots: on my chart they are a bit different to yours. so what are your numbers you write into the custom indicator box? thx. {image}
Hi birdland....I use Nostromo Pivots , ( they show same levels as Davits) but with history so I can see previous weeks....very important to me because of the Market Structure, which is another topic altogether.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-06-27_1400.png Size: 69 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Nostromo_Pivots_V2.ex4   99 KB | 323 downloads
  • #3,944
  • Jun 28, 2020 3:24am Jun 28, 2020 3:24am
Quoting Swede
{quote} Hi birdland....I use Nostromo Pivots , ( they show same levels as Davits) but with history so I can see previous weeks....very important to me because of the Market Structure, which is another topic altogether. {file} {image}
they are great and i like them more, thx a lot!
i see also the history as an important part which i missed with davits pivot indi.
i only trade GU, so i will add this tool. GU seems to respect pivots highly.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #3,945
  • Jun 28, 2020 2:09pm Jun 28, 2020 2:09pm
Quoting birdland
{quote} they are great and i like them more, thx a lot! i see also the history as an important part which i missed with davits pivot indi. i only trade GU, so i will add this tool. GU seems to respect pivots highly.
In my last post I used the term “market structure”. I was referring to much more than an area to take profit as restated in this thread by FXC.

There are a few traders in FF who quietly go about the business of trading without posting every day, in fact if you see them once a week your lucky. I’m referring to one of the best in identifying market structure and how to identify “low hanging fruit” trades, those who are ripe for picking and almost assure a profitable trade. His name is Cryptosurf and you will find him in Davit’s forum.

This is not to detract from all the other astute pivot traders in that room but just to give you a very profitable tip if you truly want to “see” the market before ever pulling the trigger. Review his posts and see for yourself. A prime low hanging fruit trade was available on Gbp recently...I will post it later here when I return to my platform....it was a beautiful thing indeed...
  • #3,946
  • Jun 28, 2020 2:20pm Jun 28, 2020 2:20pm
Here is the Market Structure trade I was talking about....(I dont even have to ask if Cryptosurf took this, I know he would have) but as I said before patience is needed...but anyway this is the explanation.......

1....Notice the first week in June...price rallied up the R161...not unusual in this method..

2...Monday price opened and went to R38.....and failed.......there was a 100+ pip trade there on the failure of R38

3....Tuesday (turn around Tuesday) price shot up pushing into Wednesday
,
4...Then by Wednesday price tried to reach R61 but had difficulty and failed.....

5...Here we go..the pattern is complete and to top it all off we have a 4 hour, 3 candle alert for the short...

And the result is almost 500 pips as of today......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-06-28_1307.png Size: 40 KB
  • #3,947
  • Jun 28, 2020 2:44pm Jun 28, 2020 2:44pm
I guess my point in posting all of that is ......dont follow the crowd......follow winners.....everyone has an opinion, everyone has a macd or stochastic or moving average trade they have some success with,,,,and good for them...But if you truly want to be in this business for the long term, seek out some of the quiet ones, send them a thank you for posting or ask a simple thought out question and in most cases you will get an answer of value.

I no longer post my trades, you will never see them on my screen because of the haters that emerge every time there is success. If you make 25 pips trading 10 standard lots and you show a 2500.00 profit, you will be accused of trading a Demo account. If you trade 10 micro lots you will be accused of not having conviction of your method. If you place your closed trades on your screen so all can see results, your bragging, if you dont post any of your closed trades your called deceptive...so there is no point in posting trades.

But what is important is showing patterns that work so they can be imprinted, saved to file, reviewed and implemented. Vince Lombardi didn't go on the field and throw the foot ball, but did he have patterns that worked? I would have to say yes with an exclamation mark.

Anyway, best to you all, hope you gained some value from these posts the past week....Swede
  • #3,948
  • Jun 29, 2020 1:57am Jun 29, 2020 1:57am
Quoting Swede
I guess my point in posting all of that is ......dont follow the crowd......follow winners.....everyone has an opinion, everyone has a macd or stochastic or moving average trade they have some success with,,,,and good for them...But if you truly want to be in this business for the long term, seek out some of the quiet ones, send them a thank you for posting or ask a simple thought out question and in most cases you will get an answer of value. I no longer post my trades, you will never see them on my screen because of the haters that emerge every...
"If you get criticized, you must be doing something right. Because you only attack the person with the ball."

i think it was bruce lee saying this;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #3,949
  • Jun 30, 2020 5:11am Jun 30, 2020 5:11am
Quoting Swede
Here is the Market Structure trade I was talking about....(I dont even have to ask if Cryptosurf took this, I know he would have) but as I said before patience is needed...but anyway this is the explanation....... 1....Notice the first week in June...price rallied up the R161...not unusual in this method.. 2...Monday price opened and went to R38.....and failed.......there was a 100+ pip trade there on the failure of R38 3....Tuesday (turn around Tuesday) price shot up pushing into Wednesday , 4...Then by Wednesday price tried to reach R61 but had...
Great observation my friend!
Trade with confidence, trade without fear.
  • #3,950
  • Jul 1, 2020 6:17pm Jul 1, 2020 6:17pm
We are midweek once again....remember we pointed out the 3 candle pattern on the daily chart?.....the retrace today brings us right to the entry level and should now be on your watch list. Now, Canada Day here so Bank Holiday, and the spike in Covid 19 cases in the US may spook Usd index, but for your information we could see this to be a strong resistance area. Remember, we are looking for an edge and this should qualify........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 3C7FA2D0-7A95-4500-B44F-BD5340596875.jpeg Size: 639 KB
  • #3,951
  • Jul 1, 2020 6:44pm Jul 1, 2020 6:44pm
Quoting Swede
We are midweek once again....remember we pointed out the 3 candle pattern on the daily chart?.....the retrace today brings us right to the entry level and should now be on your watch list. Now, Canada Day here so Bank Holiday, and the spike in Covid 19 cases in the US may spook Usd index, but for your information we could see this to be a strong resistance area. Remember, we are looking for an edge and this should qualify........ {image}
I’ve been following this thread since the beginning and have incorporated this method to my trading, after many hours of studying it.

I don’t think it’s working in this instance. Momentum is too strong and it will probably rally to 1.2550. It is also non-farm payroll today, so that makes technicals less reliable.
  • #3,952
  • Jul 1, 2020 6:47pm Jul 1, 2020 6:47pm
Quoting Swede
We are midweek once again....remember we pointed out the 3 candle pattern on the daily chart?.....the retrace today brings us right to the entry level and should now be on your watch list. Now, Canada Day here so Bank Holiday, and the spike in Covid 19 cases in the US may spook Usd index, but for your information we could see this to be a strong resistance area. Remember, we are looking for an edge and this should qualify........ {image}
hi swede...how are you buddy? great stuff as usual...was watching this pair and also noticed that on the hourly charts price peaked at the R38 level on nostromo pivots which also corresponds to the 3bar level...i was able to snag 100+ pips on the retracement after my 63 and 13 ema's crossed(nothing to do with this method but was worth noting) but waited for a pullback before entering...it hit R38 like it was a brick wall...



question...do you normally look at higher time frames for this method?

hope all is well in your part of the world and you're staying safe...peace bro
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDiH1.png Size: 81 KB
"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #3,953
  • Jul 1, 2020 6:53pm Jul 1, 2020 6:53pm
Quoting lestaire
{quote} I’ve been following this thread since the beginning and have incorporated this method to my trading, after many hours of studying it. I don’t think it’s working in this instance. Momentum is too strong and it will probably rally to 1.2550. It is also non-farm payroll today, so that makes technicals less reliable.
you may be right but at this time it should be worth about 40-60 pips while it retraces before continuing...
"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #3,954
  • Jul 1, 2020 7:12pm Jul 1, 2020 7:12pm
Quoting lestaire
{quote} I’ve been following this thread since the beginning and have incorporated this method to my trading, after many hours of studying it. I don’t think it’s working in this instance. Momentum is too strong and it will probably rally to 1.2550. It is also non-farm payroll today, so that makes technicals less reliable.
just to clarify...i meant to say could instead of should...forex is a fickle lady but for GU there seems to be a tendency for for it to consolidate and retrace during sydney and tokyo sessions before making it's move when london opens...just my observation so take it with a grain of salt...but here are the fibo levels if it does retrace:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDiH1wfibo.png Size: 82 KB
"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #3,955
  • Jul 1, 2020 7:26pm Jul 1, 2020 7:26pm
Quoting lestaire
{quote} I’ve been following this thread since the beginning and have incorporated this method to my trading, after many hours of studying it. I don’t think it’s working in this instance. Momentum is too strong and it will probably rally to 1.2550. It is also non-farm payroll today, so that makes technicals less reliable.
You may be right, I may be right....no one person can predict the market....but that's my point in having an edge...we have two at the moment...we have a clear daily 3 bar set up, we have the hourly at R38 and looking like a failure....that is where I would have my entry with a tight stop because of the very things you indicated.....If your right your buying lunch tomorrow,,,,if I'm right I like a nice Merlot...thing is I'm not afraid of being stopped for 20 pips, but the chances of being correct is in my favor at least temporarily. And besides...I posted to alert the traders who are taking a longer term approach to observe, not recklessly jump in. News, holidays, world events, politics always need to be factored into your entries relative to risk/reward...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-07-01_1815.png Size: 17 KB
  • #3,956
  • Jul 1, 2020 7:32pm Jul 1, 2020 7:32pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} You may be right, I may be right....no one person can predict the market....but that's my point in having an edge...we have two at the moment...we have a clear daily 3 bar set up, we have the hourly at R38 and looking like a failure....that is where I would have my entry with a tight stop because of the very things you indicated.....If your right your buying lunch tomorrow,,,,if I'm right I like a nice Merlot...thing is I'm not afraid of being stopped for 20 pips, but the chances of being correct is in my favor at least temporarily....
ahhh...a red wine man...merlot, cabernet and malbac...hehehe
"the fool and the prophet walk hand in hand..."
  • #3,957
  • Jul 1, 2020 7:33pm Jul 1, 2020 7:33pm
Quoting kaoscoded
{quote} hi swede...how are you buddy? great stuff as usual...was watching this pair and also noticed that on the hourly charts price peaked at the R38 level on nostromo pivots which also corresponds to the 3bar level...i was able to snag 100+ pips on the retracement after my 63 and 13 ema's crossed(nothing to do with this method but was worth noting) but waited for a pullback before entering...it hit R38 like it was a brick wall... question...do you normally look at higher time frames for this method? hope all is well in your part of the world and...
So far we are safe, very few cased of Covid at the moment......Yes I love large time frames....but when I see something of interest I pull my 1 hour charts up right away with pivots and a few other tools......your right it may only pull back 30-40 pips....but the way I trade that is a good wage to start the week....
  • #3,958
  • Jul 1, 2020 7:37pm Jul 1, 2020 7:37pm
Quoting Swede
{quote} You may be right, I may be right....no one person can predict the market....but that's my point in having an edge...we have two at the moment...we have a clear daily 3 bar set up, we have the hourly at R38 and looking like a failure....that is where I would have my entry with a tight stop because of the very things you indicated.....If your right your buying lunch tomorrow,,,,if I'm right I like a nice Merlot...thing is I'm not afraid of being stopped for 20 pips, but the chances of being correct is in my favor at least temporarily....
Right, Swede. I like your analysis and I learn from them too. I just don’t see it this time, especially with high impact news coming. But you never know like you remarked. I’m happy with you buying me lunch tomorrow btw
  • #3,959
  • Jul 1, 2020 7:41pm Jul 1, 2020 7:41pm
My trading page.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2020-07-01_1838.png Size: 65 KB
  • #3,960
  • Jul 1, 2020 7:49pm Jul 1, 2020 7:49pm
quote...... I don’t think it’s working in this instance. Momentum is too strong and it will probably rally to 1.2550. It is also non-farm payroll today, so that makes technicals less reliable.[/quote]

One small point....how do you know that momentum is strong when your trading a 5 trillion dollar per day market??. Yes we had a two day rally, but with any major currency all moves are temporary unless some unforeseen event is happening. A holiday weekend coming up, covid nervousness, bank holiday here in Canada...(thin markets can produce overblown results)

What we think is so often dead wrong trading currencies...honestly I can say this with all the scars to prove it.

thank you for posting...I am not being critical....just commenting on my own experiences.
3 traders viewing now