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Planetary Cycles Trading (EUR/USD)

  • #11,521
  • Jun 27, 2020 10:41pm Jun 27, 2020 10:41pm
Outlook for next week...

Green line is a return to Jupiter-Neptune 40h, 100% sm orb... it nailed the PA for last week perfectly. The red line is a spectrum study, picking the cycle peaks and distilling them using the Harmonic box function. The black line is a similarity study from March 12, 2020. The 2nd image shows how PA was in march relative to June 22-27 and how Jupiter-Neptune (same settings) looked on the price data.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Capture1.PNG Size: 53 KB
  • #11,522
  • Jun 28, 2020 4:26am Jun 28, 2020 4:26am
Quoting jnevins
Outlook for next week... Green line is a return to Jupiter-Neptune 40h, 100% sm orb... it nailed the PA for last week perfectly. The red line is a spectrum study, picking the cycle peaks and distilling them using the Harmonic box function. The black line is a similarity study from March 12, 2020. The 2nd image shows how PA was in march relative to June 22-27 and how Jupiter-Neptune (same settings) looked on the price data. {image} {image}
it's meant down mate? how deep?
  • #11,523
  • Jun 28, 2020 1:15pm Jun 28, 2020 1:15pm
Quoting General Lee
{quote} it's meant down mate? how deep?

PA is up then down, but unfortunately, there is no way to know how far using cycles... this could be a signature for an up then down move that ends flat... The curves help give turning points but not targets or strength to a move.

I personally don't have a lot of confidence in the black similarity line... but others on the forum have asked me to include it.
  • #11,524
  • Jun 28, 2020 1:26pm Jun 28, 2020 1:26pm
Started to read "The Spiral Calendar and Its Effects on Financial Markets" by Christopher L. Carolan. It is stated there that there is a harmonic link between major markets top and bottoms. More specifically the time interval from the latest low to the next low is supposed to be 1:1.618 (the Golden ratio) relative to the interval between the latest low and the one before it.

I tried to test that on 1H EURUSD chart. I didn't find the Golden ratio relation but the square root of it: 1.272. Have a look!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.PNG Size: 188 KB


If we assume that to be correct the next low in EURUSD should be expected on 6/30/2020 9:00.

Note: I calculated the time intervals in bars not in calendar times.
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
  • #11,525
  • Jun 28, 2020 2:13pm Jun 28, 2020 2:13pm
Quoting degoor1975
Started to read "The Spiral Calendar and Its Effects on Financial Markets" by Christopher L. Carolan. It is stated there that there is a harmonic link between major markets top and bottoms. More specifically the time interval from the latest low to the next low is supposed to be 1:1.618 (the Golden ratio) relative to the interval between the latest low and the one before it. I tried to test that on 1H EURUSD chart. I didn't find the Golden ratio relation but the square root of it: 1.272. Have a look! {image} If we assume that to be correct the next...

Nice going! This is just the kind of research and contributions that can help make this an important forum.
  • #11,526
  • Jun 28, 2020 3:23pm Jun 28, 2020 3:23pm
Quoting degoor1975
I didn't find the Golden ratio relation but the square root of it: 1.272
Cool! I love this attempt. I was trying with harmonics analysis, seeing that the oscillations have a harmonic pattern. But it is not a fixed frequency, that would be too easy. Some kind of frequency modulation.
You say that the next low should be at 6/30/2020 9:00. But will there be another high before, according to your analysis? The last H4 bars were kind of "horizontal".
  • #11,527
  • Jun 28, 2020 4:31pm Jun 28, 2020 4:31pm
Quoting degoor1975
Started to read "The Spiral Calendar and Its Effects on Financial Markets" by Christopher L. Carolan. It is stated there that there is a harmonic link between major markets top and bottoms. More specifically the time interval from the latest low to the next low is supposed to be 1:1.618 (the Golden ratio) relative to the interval between the latest low and the one before it. I tried to test that on 1H EURUSD chart. I didn't find the Golden ratio relation but the square root of it: 1.272. Have a look! {image} If we assume that to be correct the next...
9 gmt? Which time zone?
  • #11,528
  • Edited 8:19am Jun 29, 2020 6:51am | Edited 8:19am
Quoting Forensic
{quote} 9 gmt? Which time zone?
That is my broker time which happens to be my time too Sorry for missing to mention it!

It is GMT +3.

EDIT: Typo x2.
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
  • #11,529
  • Jun 29, 2020 8:09am Jun 29, 2020 8:09am
Quoting ursinho4711
{quote} Cool! I love this attempt. I was trying with harmonics analysis, seeing that the oscillations have a harmonic pattern. But it is not a fixed frequency, that would be too easy. Some kind of frequency modulation. You say that the next low should be at 6/30/2020 9:00. But will there be another high before, according to your analysis? The last H4 bars were kind of "horizontal".
I decided to try the same approach for the highs but I had to use 4H chart (due to the big run up from 05/18 till 06/05). So here what I have got:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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And here are the calculations: not as good as the previous ones but I did my best

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: calc.PNG Size: 74 KB


With 6) and 7) I tried to make an estimate for next high but it turned out that the method was not really precise because I got a difference of more than a week when I used two different highs as pivot points.
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
  • #11,530
  • Jun 30, 2020 7:35am Jun 30, 2020 7:35am
We do have a low in EURUSD: currently at 1.1191.

To be honest yesterday I didn't think that would happen...
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
  • #11,531
  • Jul 3, 2020 4:37pm Jul 3, 2020 4:37pm
End of the week recap, 75 pips based on post 11,521, June 27.

The red spectrum line proved to be more useful and it indicated a high at 18:00 utc+3 on July 1.
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  • #11,532
  • Jul 3, 2020 10:45pm Jul 3, 2020 10:45pm
Outlook for next week:

Blue line= Moon-Sun, Geo, 1/5h, 50% sm orb
Red line= 1 main and large peak in Q Spectrum
Black= Harmonic box average of Spectrum module peaks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 23 KB
  • #11,533
  • Jul 4, 2020 2:45am Jul 4, 2020 2:45am
Quoting degoor1975
If we assume that to be correct the next low in EURUSD should be expected on 6/30/2020 9:00. Note: I calculated the time intervals in bars not in calendar times.
Not bad... any prediction for the coming week, with your method? I still follow the idea of an FM, "just" the Amplitude would be the question. But for that we have fibo ;-)
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  • #11,534
  • Jul 4, 2020 2:58am Jul 4, 2020 2:58am
Quoting jnevins
The red line is a spectrum study, picking the cycle peaks and distilling them using the Harmonic box function.
Double frequency would have nailed it. But as I wrote before, a steady frequency a) would be too easy b) cannot be seen.
If the weather was not that nice, I would try a frequency demodulation. Looks like at least two frequencies are overlapping.
  • #11,535
  • Edited 5:03am Jul 4, 2020 4:44am | Edited 5:03am
The Parade of Planets has begun and we will feel its influence during several months. I guess this will negative affect the forecasts. The next Parade will be held without us already in 2169. Good luck to all of us in this difficult year!
  • #11,536
  • Jul 5, 2020 12:05am Jul 5, 2020 12:05am
Quoting degoor1975
{quote} I decided to try the same approach for the highs but I had to use 4H chart (due to the big run up from 05/18 till 06/05). So here what I have got: {image} And here are the calculations: not as good as the previous ones but I did my best {image} With 6) and 7) I tried to make an estimate for next high but it turned out that the method was not really precise because I got a difference of more than a week when I used two different highs as pivot points.
Great work!!! How did you calculate the ratios?
  • #11,537
  • Jul 5, 2020 11:47am Jul 5, 2020 11:47am
Quoting Jonniecash
{quote} Great work!!! How did you calculate the ratios?
I use MT4 so I mark all local high or low points with vertical lines and using the Crosshair tool I take the horizontal distance in bars between two vertical lines (that should be the leftmost number shown in the Crosshair tool). After that I put those bar distances in Excel and divide one versus another.

On my last picture above for 7.) I calculated

320 / 195 = 1.64103

Basically you should be able to do the same on any other trading platform using a Crosshair or a Ruler tool
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
  • #11,538
  • Jul 5, 2020 12:07pm Jul 5, 2020 12:07pm
Quoting ursinho4711
{quote} Not bad... any prediction for the coming week, with your method? I still follow the idea of an FM, "just" the Amplitude would be the question. But for that we have fibo ;-) {image}
Well, I wouldn't call it a "method". It is more like an idea that might turn out to be somewhat useful

Anyway, based on the first chart in post 11,529 a top is possible between 7/7/2020 4:00 and 7/15/2020 0:00 (GMT+3).

Taking into account jnevins' outlook for the next week you can expect that top to be towards the end of the week
In trading as in life you need to learn only from the best!
  • #11,539
  • Jul 5, 2020 12:07pm Jul 5, 2020 12:07pm
Quoting degoor1975
{quote} I use MT4 so I mark all local high or low points with vertical lines and using the Crosshair tool I take the horizontal distance in bars between two vertical lines (that should be the leftmost number shown in the Crosshair tool). After that I put those bar distances in Excel and divide one versus another. On my last picture above for 7.) I calculated 320 / 195 = 1.64103 Basically you should be able to do the same on any other trading platform using a Crosshair or a Ruler tool
Nice! I think I meant to ask, how did you end up with 195 bars for 7.) ?
  • #11,540
  • Jul 5, 2020 12:34pm Jul 5, 2020 12:34pm
Quoting jnevins
{quote} I have a YouTube channel that demonstrates how I construct my charts... the last video I posted in April shows my current method https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVj2sJ7Wyfk&t=3s

Thank you jnevins.
Determination + Persistence = Success
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