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5 years and still no strategy

  • #2,561
  • Jun 27, 2020 3:15pm Jun 27, 2020 3:15pm
Quoting ssuunnny
Hi experienced traders, what do you make of an optimization graph like this--looks like there is a "tendency" or "pattern" that the EA becomes profitable towards the last passes during the optimization? {image}
There does look to be a pattern. It appears to me as though the EA has a tendency to be wrong most of the time.
"The fun is in the hunt. Not the kill."
  • #2,562
  • Jun 28, 2020 6:03am Jun 28, 2020 6:03am
Quoting Redeflect
{quote} There does look to be a pattern. It appears to me as though the EA has a tendency to be wrong most of the time.
Most EAs have a tendency to be wrong most of the time. This is why I don't use them
  • #2,563
  • Jun 28, 2020 6:55am Jun 28, 2020 6:55am
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Most EAs have a tendency to be wrong most of the time. This is why I don't use them
Hey Hutch,

I am an amateur programmer, and I've been working on EAs lately just to understand more how they work,

I have a logical question here:
+ EAs which are right in a type of market are usualy wrong when environment change,
Exemple: EAs who work on trending market fail on choppy markets and vice versa

what if in theory we plug the following conditions:
1st - We determin the weekly bias and set the EA to trade only on the bias direction
2nd- we set an environment condition to have an idea on the environment of the market and strenth of the trend (Example: ADX>50 for trending...)
3rd- we set a direction indicator to determin the trend direction
4th - We set a 2% 1:1 rm strategy

then we analyse the results, and add conditions that can eleminate the periods in xhixh the EA was poorly performing.

is this going to lead me to something, from your POV?

thaks
Med
  • #2,564
  • Jun 28, 2020 2:01pm Jun 28, 2020 2:01pm
Quoting mlouah7
{quote} Hey Hutch, I am an amateur programmer, and I've been working on EAs lately just to understand more how they work, I have a logical question here: + EAs which are right in a type of market are usualy wrong when environment change, Exemple: EAs who work on trending market fail on choppy markets and vice versa what if in theory we plug the following conditions: 1st - We determin the weekly bias and set the EA to trade only on the bias direction 2nd- we set an environment condition to have an idea on the environment of the market and strenth...
Hi Med. I think that you have a good grasp of the problems with most EAs so I would be frivolous to give you advice since I'm not a programmer and no longer use them. I mostly trade on D1 charts and EAs are useless in that environment because all I have to do is to look at the charts once a day and make simple decisions regarding ongoing trades and/or opening new ones. On the other hand since trading D1 charts is boring I also trade using Renko and I think it would be easier to make an EA in that environment since there are big trends. Do you think it would be possible to make an EA using a Renko chart with only one indicator, the HalfTrend TT, as seen in the chart below? The trade being initiated when the HalfTrend TT has produced an arrow after the closing of the current candle. The template and the other indicators are provided because this is the strategy I use but are not necessary for an EA. Sorry I don't have the mq4 file for the HalfTrend TT.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: WTICOUSDM2.png Size: 40 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 HalfTrend TT [x5v4].ex4   27 KB | 359 downloads
File Type: ex4 FXBay_-_MACD.ex4   10 KB | 374 downloads
File Type: mq4 FXBay_-_MACD.mq4   3 KB | 394 downloads
File Type: tpl FxBay.tpl   104 KB | 338 downloads
File Type: ex4 Infoboard.ex4   63 KB | 365 downloads
File Type: ex4 STG_RenkoChart_Remote.ex4   117 KB | 355 downloads
  • #2,565
  • Jun 28, 2020 2:03pm Jun 28, 2020 2:03pm
Quoting HeyYou
{quote} Since you're asking... I used to ignore for no reason but this is not the case. occasionally I read your posts and you often talk about politics... also before I ignored you I saw you fighting with a guy for no reason (IMO) and accusing another guy because he posted a link. In any case.. ignoring doesn't mean "I want to kill you". take it easy !
Sorry if you found my post offensive. In any case I don't have a fight with you
  • #2,566
  • Jun 29, 2020 1:07pm Jun 29, 2020 1:07pm
Quoting Hutch
{quote} Hi Med. I think that you have a good grasp of the problems with most EAs so I would be frivolous to give you advice since I'm not a programmer and no longer use them. I mostly trade on D1 charts and EAs are useless in that environment because all I have to do is to look at the charts once a day and make simple decisions regarding ongoing trades and/or opening new ones. On the other hand since trading D1 charts is boring I also trade using Renko and I think it would be easier to make an EA in that environment since there are big trends. Do...
Hey hutch,

I am a new member, they don"t let my messages be published in time,

Anyways thanks for sharing, i ll be glat to work on it and will surely share my feedback with you as soon as i good results,

Best regadrs
Med
  • #2,567
  • Jul 6, 2020 5:32am Jul 6, 2020 5:32am
This is a fairly common problem among both experienced traders and beginners. Beginners can understand that they are trying to find the ideal strategy for themselves, what is most convenient for them and brings them profit.
I believe that 2-4 years is enough for learning and to determine the strategy for yourself, in your case, I advise to analyze your trading, based on the income to understand what strategy is the most favorable for you and will be clearly defined. Perhaps you should analyze not only your trade, but also your moral state, many experienced traders often begin to doubt themselves and their strategies and also begin to change their direction and because of this be in losses.
Trust yourself, clearly choose the most effective strategy and trade, confident the effect you will see soon.
  • #2,568
  • Jul 6, 2020 12:26pm Jul 6, 2020 12:26pm
Quoting Redworker
This is a fairly common problem among both experienced traders and beginners. Beginners can understand that they are trying to find the ideal strategy for themselves, what is most convenient for them and brings them profit. I believe that 2-4 years is enough for learning and to determine the strategy for yourself, in your case, I advise to analyze your trading, based on the income to understand what strategy is the most favorable for you and will be clearly defined. Perhaps you should analyze not only your trade, but also your moral state, many...
You are entirely correct although I think that 2-4 years might be excessive. Best is to find a system that works and improve it to suit your needs. A good example is the "Trendline Scalping System" that has been improved many times by bp2000. Some traders state that a system needs to be tested at least 100 times in order to find out how accurate the system is. The problem is that many traders will try a system about 10-20 times and will discard it because it doesn't work to their satisfaction but never having really computed its accuracy.
  • #2,569
  • Apr 2, 2022 6:36am Apr 2, 2022 6:36am
Quoting Mingary
{quote} The number of ticks mean something ... What is meaningless is the candle or time frame BTW the same surge of activity will show on all broker MT4 {image}
can you link that indicator for download please. It looks so good
  • #2,570
  • Last Post: Dec 8, 2022 9:04am Dec 8, 2022 9:04am
Quoting freakout
So... I have 5 years of experience, I know price action, I know how to trade with trend, I know how to manage risk, etc., but I still don't have a strategy. Is this normal or it's a waste of time? I'm not looking for a holy grail, but for something really simple with 50% accuracy at 1:2 ratio. 3-5 trades per day during EU session and that's all. I tried to trade H1-H4 pullbacks, pivots, breakouts and many other strategies but without any success... Should I continue my searches or it's time to leave it?

I would say this is about right. We naturally want a trading strategy or system to work all the time. When it doesn't, we get distracted and deviate to all sorts of other methods. Is that a waste of time? Maybe, maybe not.

Years ago, I'm talking many years ago in the 2000's I read something on here about a carry trade. This was during the mid-2000 when Interest rates were moving higher and before the 2008 bubble popped. A member said I got this great system, open a forex account that doesn't collect swap, buy a a currency pair and collect the swap every day at the end of trading day. Hedge that pair in the account that doesn't collect swap. First I thought, this is a scam, this is BS. Lo and behold I gave it a shot, nothing else was working for me the first 5 years what have I got to lose.

For 6 months I collected nearly $25 of swap every day, didn't matter what direction the currency pair moved. Of course the system stopped working when the interest rates started to fall then eventually go to 0, but hey, you have to keep searching and stay positive. There's golden nuggets out there amid all the junk.
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