Weekly Top-Down Technical Analyses

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Within the context of a generally bearish GBPUSD market, recent market operation has been sideways. On the monthly time frame, after the strong bearish dive for an all-time low in March 2020, a bullish candlestick was printed in April at an area far above the low of the March bearish candlestick print. But it has relatively small range, indicating a lack of bullish force. The candlestick print of May was bearish and similar in range to the April bullish print. This month, bulls took market operation further northward to the 1.28600 area, but a bearish pressure has been effected and market operation is presently located around the 1.25400 area.

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On the weekly time frame, bulls have been dominant of market operation since mid-May and the bullish print of two weeks ago took market operation towards the 1.28600 but failed to reach it. Last week, bears effected a southward pullback from around the 1.28600 area, but the relatively long-range candlestick has shadow on both ends, indicating that bears are not fully in control of the market. While the 1.28600 area is a significant horizontal resistance, the major horizontal support is around the 1.20600 area.

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On the daily time frame, bulls have been dominant recently but the bearish prints last week Thursday and Friday indicate the emergence of bearish pressure. Nevertheless, we should be aware of the rising trendline (magenta) traceable to March 20, 2020 which can be influential as resistance. Besides, price action is presently located at a horizontal support zone around 1.24700/1.23700 (SandyBrown). How the market handles the area in the early part of this week should be watched.

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On the H4 time frame, recent price action has broken down a rising trendline (blue) traceable to May 26, 2020. However, price action printed a bullish candlestick in the last H4-session on Friday. This may result in a retesting of the broken down trendline (blue) for a potential role flip. The 1.26400 area (magenta) is a minor horizontal resistance.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

I have just concluded the screening of the pairs on my watch list and have selected four pairs I will be tracking next week. These pairs, which I will be analysing, and then feature on this thread before the market opens on Sunday, are: EURUSD, GBPCAD, GBPUSD and XAUUSD.

Stay safe.

KP

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPCAD market operation on the monthly time frame is within a horizontal channel spanning the 1.65560/1.75600 zone. Presently it is dominated by bears and about 230 pips from the lower boundary of the channel.

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Market operation is ranging on the weekly time frame. Last week, a bearish continuation candlestick was printed from about the middle of the 1.65560/1.75600 channel-range after a bullish retracement of the bearish swing from the 1.75600 area seven weeks ago. Technically, we can expect bears to be more influential in the market this week.

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On the H4 time frame, price action is presently disposed southwards after it broke below a rising trendline (blue) traceable to early June. Technicals favour bears but the momentum is weakening.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is still disposed positively. On the monthly time frame, technicals and the order flow context still favour bulls.

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On the weekly time frame, the 1677.80/1745.50 zone (magenta) has been the primary channel within which the market has been operating in the past 10 weeks. Last week, market operation printed a small bullish candlestick which nestled at the 1745.50 upper boundary. We should await how the market handles the area in the early part of this week.

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On the daily time frame, price action has been sideways. Presently, it is at the 1745.50 area, which has resisted several bullish attempts to break out.

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Technicals on the H4 time frame favour bulls but price action is located at the 1745.50 horizontal resistance area. We should await how price action handles the area in the early part of this week.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market is in consolidation within a generally downward trend. On the monthly time frame, market operation is still respecting a falling trendline (blue) traceable to July 2015. Presently, it is mainly within the 1.2800/1.21400 zone.

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Technicals on the weekly time frame favour bears. However, market operation is at a horizontal support around the 1.23450 area, and we should watch how the area is handled by price action in the early part of this week.

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On the H4 time frame, technicals and recent order flow context favour bears. After price action broke down a rising trendline (magenta) traceable to May 25, 2020, there was a 61.8 Fib retracement of the downward swing from 1.28130 to 1.24550; this was followed by a bearish continuation. I am more bearish than bullish GBPUSD.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is disposing southward after three weeks of bullish drive that started five weeks ago. On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, market operation printed a small bearish pinbar from the 1.14170 horizontal resistance area. This was followed up last week with another small bearish pinbar. This indicates that bears are increasing their influence in the market.

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On the daily time frame, price action has broken below the 1.12200 horizontal support. But this is not yet a significant breakdown of the area. We may have to await a retest of the area, followed by a bearish rejection, before we can have confidence in a bearish follow-through.

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From the H4 time frame, we can see that the bearish breakdown of the 1.12200 area is not significant. A further downleg with a deep pullback will be required.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

I have just concluded the screening of the pairs on my watch list. I will be analyzing and featuring the following on this thread before market open on Sunday: EURAUD, EURUSD, GBPAUD, GBPUSD and XAUUSD. Meanwhile, technically, I will be more bearish than bullish GBPUSD next week.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Hi KP.
Just curious, how does your forecasting influences your trades, let's say you decided to be more bearish than bullish on GU, but market makes bullish move all next week without retrace, so menially you prepared for shorts, and your brain is looking for short setups and opportunities, or you have no problem with that, its just cold money management and you switch sides on the fly.

Thanks mate for your very good question and the scenario you presented. First, I am a swing trader but my trade plans are based on scenario analyses. However, I don't normally trade on Mondays. I use Mondays to track how price action reacts to my analyses and what it does at certain boundary areas I would have identified in each trade plan. I have a trade plan for each pair I watch during any week. So, if GU is bullish and price action voids my analysis, my scenario trading kicks in; I will re-analyse the market and if my analysis still favours a bearish outlook, I will wait for a feasible sell trading opportunity at another zone. Otherwise, I will step aside until, say Wednesday, when I do my mid-week analysis.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting xau

Disliked

...Just curious, how does your forecasting influences your trades, let's say you decided to be more bearish than bullish on GU, but market makes bullish move all next week without retrace, so mentally you prepared for shorts, and your brain is looking for short setups and opportunities, or you have no problem with that....

Ignored

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market has continued its bullish outlook which began in June 2019. On the monthly time frame, the bullish market operation is within a rising channel (red). Presently, market operation in June 2020 is at a multi-year horizontal resistance zone around 1771.20.

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On the weekly time frame, the 1739.30/1679.70 zone, has operated as a horizontal channel (blue) for the market for several weeks before it was broken northwards last week to nestle at the resistance trendline of the rising channel (red) seen on the monthly time frame.

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On the daily time frame, price action has broken above a rising channel (red) seen on the monthly time frame as well as a horizontal channel (blue) within which it has been operating since April 14, 2020. However, presently, it has been in a sideways mode since last week Tuesday as it entered the multi-year horizontal resistance area around 1771.20. We should await how price action handles the area in the early part of this week.

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Technicals on the H4 time frame still favour bulls but there is a bearish pressure.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

After months of positive outlook that ended with a strong bullish spike in March 2020, the EURAUD market has disposed negatively. On the monthly time frame, a southward turnaround which began in April has seen further bearish follow-through in May and June. So far, the bearish move in June broke below an inner rising trendline (blue) before snapping back, while an outer rising trendline (magenta) could be influential in the longer term.

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On the weekly time frame, recent market operation is sideways. Four weeks ago, it broke below the inner rising trendline (blue) seen on the monthly time frame and three weeks ago printed a bullish candlestick that rose above it. The last two weeks have seen the printing of doj-like candlesticks around it. How market operation handles the area in the early part of this week should be watched.

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On the daily time frame, presently price action is sideways. But technicals and order flow give a slight edge to bears. The 1.59600 area is the next significant horizontal support.

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On the H4 time frame, presently, price action is in a sideways mode. However, the general technical outlook sees two falling trendlines (blue and black) nutmegging recent candlesticks for a falling wedge and bears are likely to have the edge. Meanwhile, the 1.64700/1.62000 zone is the operating channel (magenta) for price action.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPAUD market has disposed negatively after months of positive outlook that ended with a failed bullish attempt to breach the 2.02600 horizontal resistance in March 2020. On the monthly time frame, a southward turnaround which began from the 2.02600 area in April has seen further bearish follow-through in May and June. So far, the bearish move in June has broken below an inner rising trendline (blue), while an outer rising trendline (red) traceable to March 2013 is a threat as support for the foreseeable future. The 1.77100 area is the immediate horizontal support.

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Technicals and prevailing order flow context favour bears on the weekly time frame. Market operation has broken below an inner trendline (blue) seen on the monthly time frame. Further bearish ambition has to break below the horizontal support around 1.76500 before attempting a breach of the outer rising trendline (red).

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On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a falling trendline (magenta). Although technicals favour bears, the recent small candlestick prints indicate a decline in bearish momentum. However, a strong bearish breakdown of the 1.79400 area is likely to provide the impetus for a bearish continuation; otherwise, we may see a bullish pullback or a sideways of price action before a southward continuation. I am more bearish GBPAUD than bullish.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market has been sideways in the context of a falling channel (red) on the monthly time frame. Recent market operation has been within a wide range spanning the 1.14720/1.07600 zone (purple) and presently it is disposed northward. So far, the June operation has teased the upper boundary before a bearish pullback.

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Market operation on the weekly time frame is sideways and located near the upper part of the 1.14720/1.07600 channel (purple) seen on the monthly time frame. After the bullish drive of four weeks ago, bears have stepped in to exert their influence in the market and the candlestick prints in the past two weeks have been rather ambivalent.

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Topping patterns are being formed on the daily time frame. Since last week Wednesday, bears have effected a southward mode but bulls are still much in the frame. Price action is presently around the 1.11720 horizontal support area (magenta). We should await how the area is handled by the market in the early part of this week. A strong bearish break on a daily closing basis may embolden sellers to push for the 1.09900 area (blue), whereas any bullish resurgence that bounces off the 1.11720 zone (magenta) may see a retest of the 1.13700 area.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After the bearish dive of March 2020 that saw the printing of an all-time low on the GBPUSD market, market operation on the monthly time frame has been sideways. A bullish miniature candlestick printed in April was neutralized by a bearish candlestick of similar size in May. So for, the June candlestick print has been rather ambivalent. But technically, the 1.28000/1.21400 zone (purple) has been the primary operating channel in the past three months. Technically bears are still favoured to be more influential in the market than bulls and a falling trendline (red) traceable to November 2007 is active as resistance. Notice that it has also formed a falling wedge with a falling trendline (blue) from lows traceable to March 2009.

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On the weekly time frame, market operation is largely sideways. The bearish candlesticks printed in the past three weeks failed to break below the bullish candlestick printed four weeks ago. In fact, an indecision candlestick, in the shape of a gravestone doji, was printed last week; indicating a pause in bearish drive even though technical give bears a slight edge.

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On the daily time frame, the order flow showed the impulse favours bears. Price action has broken down the 78.6 and 61.8 Fib retracement of the downward swing from 1.31160 to 1.14090, and, technically, we can expect the 50 and 38.2 Fib to follow.

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On the H4 timeframe, technicals favour bears. Price action is operating within a falling channel (blue) and presently disposed southwards. I am more bearish than bullish GBPUSD.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

While many of the markets are generally sideways, I will be tracking EURUSD, GBPAUD, GBPUSD and XAUUSD this week. The EURUSD and GBPUSD are presently operating in potential flip or bounce zones. I will be posting my weekly technical perspective on each of the four before market open this week.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

GN wkly looks promising KP.

Yes. In fact, more promising than GA because the NZD is presently a bit stronger than AUD. But really, I chose to track only one of GA and GN rather than both, and I chose GA.

Stay safe, trade safe.

KP

Quoting mallee

Disliked

{quote} GN wkly looks promising KP.

Ignored

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market is favourably supportive of bulls. However, the bullish momentum is presently declining. On the weekly time frame, bullish candlestick prints have been declining in the past five weeks as the market gets near the 1794.80 multi-year horizontal resistance area. Nevertheless, this does not mean the end of bullish influence in the market; only that, presently, the momentum is rather flat.

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On the daily time frame, on June 23, price action broke above a horizontal channel (blue) within which it has been operating for eight previous days. However, the candlesticks printed since then have been mixed, offering a sideways of price action. Presently, price action is located around 1775.70. The next major horizontal resistance is around 1794.80 while the 1751.60 is the immediate horizontal support. We should await what happens in the early part of this week for directional clarity.

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XAUUSD price action is within a rising wedge (magenta) on the H4 time frame. Presently, it is consolidating in a narrow channel (sandybrown) spanning 1777.10/1772.50. Although a breakout from the area will be of interest to scalpers, but for longer-term directional commitment we should await a significant breakout of price action from either side of the wedge (magenta).

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPAUD market continues to maintain a negative tone after the bearish swing that began in the first week of April. On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, market operation broke down a consolidation zone spanning 1.84050/1.80750. However, there was limited bearish follow-through last week as it printed an indecision candlestick. Presently, it is operating in another congestion zone, the 1.80750/1.77960 area but bears are still favoured technically. Nevertheless, the indecision candlestick printed last week technically indicates that there is a challenge to a bearish drive.

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On the daily time frame, price action is generally bearish. But recently there is an emerging bullish pressure, given the increase in the number of bullish candlesticks in the past 21 days. Should bulls continue to exert such a pressure, we may see less bearish drive as price action approaches the 1.77900 horizontal support. Meanwhile, the bearish candlesticks printed last week Thursday and Friday will have to be validated in the early part of this week as they were likely affected by the Bank holiday in the USA.

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On the H4 time frame, price action has retested several times a broken-down horizontal support around the 1.80750 area. On July 2, the area was retested again but bears effected a southward turnaround which lasted for only one day before bulls stepped in. We may see a retest of the area before any further bearish drive. Personally, I will see any such retest of the area, with a role flip on a daily closing basis, as presenting a feasible opportunity for a sell trade. The 1.77900 area is technically a potential target of any bearish ambition should sellers shake off the bullish pressure.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market is still sideways. On the weekly time frame, market operation is presently consolidating within the 1.11730/1.13560 zone. While technically the 1.12930 area is the immediate horizontal resistance, the immediate horizontal support is at the 1.11660 area.

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On the daily time frame, price action has broken down a rising trendline (blue) but the bullish technical structure is still intact. Meanwhile, there is sideways of price action around the 1.12360 horizontal S/R area; an area which has seen much ‘wicky’ and ambivalent prints in the past few days. We should await directional clarity in the early part of this week.

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I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP