The end of the US stock market is nearing

Is that not a falling wedge, with the breakout expected upwards in the direction of the preceding trend?

(your post from Feb 28th quoted above)
excellent thread Igrok. I believe June 8th we tapped just under 27600 and so far have not been able to climb higher.

reading through the thread again tonight, I’ve noticed the naysayers and perma-bulls have mostly vanished. One or two have stuck around. And I can’t say I blame them for being optimistic. Buying the dips has been “the way” our whole lives.

but your calls have been truly impressive.

—- almost a year ago, July 4th, you predicted a drop and mapped out the large bounce.

—- you noted that it would be a Black Swan type event.

—- you noted the must hit level of 18300 on the way down.

—- you noted an approximate maximum possible correction back up of 27600.


all of these have come to fruition after being called many months in advance.

it's a typo... 18300 as a matter of fact... would you, please, correct it?...))) other than that looks OK...

when it comes to EUR/USD trading I always strongly recommend using DXY (USDX) as a reference... on this chart you can see that the actual signal for break out from the triangular formation came in a bit earlier on the DXY chart.. right after the fourth touch, as we can see...

Yes, just a typo

thank you.... also let me explain where this current correction top at 27600 came from... it's a "phantom level" actually... calculated as a extension of the interim top formed on October 03, 2018 being projected on the straight line connecting two other significant tops: one was formed on January 26, 2018 and another on February 29, 2020... seems it has been hit exactly on June 08, 2020... see the picture...

Hi Igor about Phantom tops should a diamond play out would be a phantom point be a valid "touch" of a trend line on the 03/Aug/18 or 08/Jun/20 or both in your method that is ?

I don't know... sometimes "phantoms" work very well, but not always... nonetheless I usually keep that probability in mind whenever it might be applicable... as far as I remember, I already explained this concept long time ago somewhere in my main thread that I started back in 2007 on FF... https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=21887

Maybe something to include in a new book ? :D

just a little reminder... here is the post about McDonald's stock chart I have posted earlier... https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=12984127#post12984127

on a bigger picture it looks like the following, where on a longer-term chart we can see that there was a continuation diamond formed in 2007-9... this particular one could be used back then as a cross-reference for the DJI direction while it was supposed to go up and it can be used now for the same purpose, meaning that the entire market will inevitably revisit those crisis levels from 11-12 years ago...

yeah, I have such a plan...

I just got the script of Mr. Khazin's book translated into English... should be published soon and available for English speaking readers... here is the introduction written by the translator...

TRANSLATOR’S FOREWORD

A golden rule for professional translators calls for a native speaker to translate from the foreign language into her native language. This is how it should be done in an ideal world. This rule usually works, but not always. Sometimes this rule is bent or changed when the topic of the book steers away from a standard fiction story and goes deeper into specialized areas of humankind’s knowledge, thus presenting a translation challenge.

Mikhail Khazin is a renowned Russian economist, the author of several widely popular books on the economy in Russia and Russian-speaking countries (and not on economics! – the more you delve into this book, the more you will understand why Mr. Khazin avoids using this word). The topic of business, banking, economy, economic institutions calls for a specialized set of skills and a translator has to be “in the know” in order to deliver the author’s true meaning and intent to his English-speaking audience.

This is the reason why Mr. Khazin, after some deliberations chose me to translate his book – a practicing businessman with the native knowledge of Russian language, an accounting degree from Baruch College and master’s degree from TRIUM Global Executive MBA (a joint program between NYU Stern School of Business, HEC Paris and London School of Economics).Having an academic and practical knowledge of business, accounting, finance, operations management, business statistics and auditing topics made me an ideal candidate for translating Mr. Khazin’s book, though an even more ideal candidate could have been someone English-speaking. However, these are very rare species – native English speaking business/economy professionals with excellent command of the Russian language. I personally met such a person only once in my life. It was an American gentleman from New Jersey, a seasoned businessman specializing in telecommucations, who has reached an unfathomable command of the Russian language through a combination of effort, language abilities and actually living in Russia where he has perfected his skills. But again, such people are very few and in between.

Translating this book was a challenge as it dealt a significant blow to my schedule since translating is not quite my everyday job. As Mr. Khazin explains in one of the book’s chapters, creating a new methodology quite often calls for a new terminology. Sometimes this terminology does not even exist and has to be developed. As a translator I had to put quite an effort in order to best deliver the meanings attributed by Mr. Khazin to the terminology used throughout this book.

Being a practicing businessman I especially appreciate the holistic view of the economy given in this book. In my private conversations with Mr. Khazin I told him how the logical sequence of his economic theory resonated with me upon reading of the book. I remember my micro- and macroeconomics classes during my first year in college and how I walked away from these classes confused even more than I had been prior to taking them. After having numerous conversations with people who graduated from various business schools from around the world, I realized I was not the only one whose views on the economy were a patchwork of different ideas and facts thrown in together but failing to deliver a holistic view of the topic. I believe the English-speaking audience will be interested to find out about Mr. Khazin’s alternative views on the world’s economic history, why the capitalism started developing in 16th century and not earlier, and most importantly – how will it all end? You will find the answers in this book. Mind you, this is not your regular textbook on micro- or macroeconomics but rather an alternative view of capitalist system, markets and borders, discussion of the reasons for the XX century world wars, banking and US dollar role in the world, usury and family relationships, crash of the world economy and what is to follow.

The world drama is being played right in front of our eyes (I am writing this in summer 2020). The last crisis is here. So is the worldwide quarantine and its various consequences – seen and yet unseen. The world pandemic simply postponed the results of the capitalist experiment in labor division and world economic globalization. But it does not mean we will not see or feel the results. As Mr. Khazin indicates in this book (a bit of a spoiler here) – no one can predict whether the US economy will come out of the current crisis unscathed. As the saying goes, the chickens are now here to roost and you have to prepare yourself, your family and friends for one of the wildest economic rides in the history of mankind, with possible food shortages, wide spread looting and property destruction. Upon reading this book you will have an idea how it has all happened and what has to be done in order to survive and prosper during these trying times. These conclusions you will have to make yourself, assessing your particular environment and circumstances.

We have put in an effort towards editing this book, but humans are humans and there is always a place for an error. Please let us know if you find any errors/mistakes you deem worth correcting. We will always be glad to hear from you.

Ismail “Malik” Nishanbayev

civil war in the US will seem preposterous to those not paying attention, but the fact is it has happened before plus today there is a perfect storm brewing: civil unrest, global pandemic, increasingly fractured political and financial systems, and the main driving force, Trump

I would rather it didnt happen, but my bet is it is coming (Nov-Jan)...."the entire market will inevitably revisit those crisis levels from 11-12 years ago"....and lower!

Hi Igrok,

I plan on ordering your book and probably should do so before asking in the next question but what determines whether it’s a continuation Diamond or a reversal Diamond?

still having confliction‘s with the equities reversal and the dollar to simultaneously reverse!

this would only mean the decoupling of the dollar Haven status!

I don't feel myself like some sort of Nostradamus and can't see future like him... I also normally don't take fundamentals in consideration... I only watch charts and come to my conclusion after making my visual graph analysis... also have no idea where this perception about inverted correlation between the US stock market and the buck came from... the charts show that despite DJI is now trading way above the point where its strongest up-trend started back in March 2009, the USDX has also gained some value since then... just compare them both and you will see it yourself... on the other hand, I also know that all the markets, regardless of their nature, always come back to the continuation diamonds... I have no idea why is that but that's a fact... there is also a small diamond on daily on the EUR/USD at about 1.3400... thus it appears that reaching this level is a must regardless of anything else...

its not that the equities have to correlate to the dollar per say under normal conditions. but most definitely when risk-off , such as a super sharp return to 08 lows as i also believe, there should be elevated dollar strength on haven status of course. so thats why i cant make the dollar diamond reversal work.. Im less certain of the dxy then the equities. and thats why i was asking the difference on the continuation diamond vs reversal.. is it possible the diamond forming on dxy is a continuation?

apparently it's a liberal globalist takeover attempt... not just in US, but in all the Western World... it might turn into an international Civil War eventually... when the government of any state loses or surrenders its monopoly for violence in favor of some mobs, whatever they are, - it's a very bad sign... such a state can no longer exist... historical monuments being assaulted all over the places is yet another bad symptom... history is not for someone's liking or disliking... it's for remembering and learning from it... besides, traditionally and historically, all the leftists are quite effective in destruction but always poorly perform when it comes to developing... this current BS is not going to be any different... only more dangerous and deadlier than ever... the markets are doomed...

unlikely... but we will see soon... would you personally buy the currency of a state while it's falling apart?...

Hello Igrok, is this the D on the eurusd daily?

answer on previous page