COT: The precious data ignored

Either way i'll be happy with the s&p
If it rises hard i'll load big VIX longs
if it falls hard i'll load some good cheap stocks

I just want it to make big moves in one way

I like your idea of the VIX, any idea why yuan vs usd is not possible?

I'm not touching this yuan currency, so i can't tell

Lean hogs longs ready ?


Lets have a look the producers. The most important thing is to know when producers are very short, and when they are "less" short
Whenever we had a sell off, shorts were around 40/50% short. Whenever it rose, we had to wait for to retreat above below 30% (ideally around 20%).
Lately, price is very low, with producers around 20% short
It totally not the time to short...


Short money managers are usually very short when it reverses, it failed one time (4th green circle)
But you don't want to buy Lean Hogs when price is ranging between 40 and 90 dollar over the past 5 years (60/65 dollars in the middle is no way to buy or sell)
What we have lately ? shorts increasing...But price kept falling and now shorts decreasing.
Ideally i would want to see shorts going all in as price is falling....then buy big time


Weekly system is in the oversold territory so far, possible big bounce ahead

I'd wait a couple of more time (i guess weeks) to see how COT market participants develop their position

But below 40 dollars is a blind buy usually

Daily sentiment of as tuesday night

Don't see this everyday ...... Last time Dealers had no Shorts in the market was March 2014 but the Longs were active. This time the Longs are low also.

https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...3#post13016073

Noticed it too, don't know what to think about it really

Last time it happened (it was 0,46%) euro was on top near 1,40.

[quote=AussieBob;12994817]{quote} I hope this may help in your understanding. I'd like to use Wheat as an example of how differences between the COT Legacy Report and the COT Disaggregated Report can skew the NET POSITION data that you are looking at. The 2 reports are exactly the same number of contracts but the Disagg is split up into 5 categories ( Producers/Merchants , Money Managers , Swap Dealers , Non Reportable and Other ). The Legacy Report has 3 Categories ( .....

Hi Bob,
In your post you clearly show how the Producers and Swap Dealers are aggregated in the Legacy Commercials, this works for the commodities reports.
However for financial instruments it does seems so obvious(at least to me a noob in COT matters). From comparing on barcharts I would say that Dealers are assimilated to the commercials and the others assimilated to non-commercials.

Could it be that simple?

Thank you

How's life up there in Equities?

Here are a few charts regarding the S&P500 and the Nasdaq100


Dealers of the s&p are going very long up there. It could fits one of my scenario mentionned in previous post, saying that we could face a correction, in order for the dealers to accumulate even more longs before surging higher


Assets managers just have started to buy up there. They are far from being full of longs. Maybe we'd need more drop in order for them to accumulate loads


Here are the people who may stage the correction, look at how shorts are the money managers, they are clearly all in, and only looking at a drop


Nasdaq dealers have been doing the opposite of the s&p dealers. Its normal as Nasdaq rises more than s&p. And it seems the buy-side is buying all in (as dealrs are very short)


Assets managers are going long in all, as if there is no tommorow.
I wouldn't buy here, because once the AM starts unloading, it could drop some nice %

Interesting days are coming

Soybean-Corn spread investment idea

Chart speaks for itself

Sell soybean/Buy corn

Sugar topish ?

Attached Image

As expected, Sugar rally have looked "fake", short side is going all in now on top.
I'd need a big drop, and shorts to disappear in order to buy for the real rally

Coffee soon to rally?


Coffee short money managers are going bigger into shorts at the bottom. It may look low regarding the past history.
But i'm still buying every dip

As i mentionned before, its not only a market participants things, but its a producers and government stuff (brazil and colombia)
A price below 100 dollars is harming the countries and they can't let that happen for too long

That's why big bounces (20/40%) are often coming

Wheat bounce coming ?

Just a view on the daily system, without looking at the COT report



Now lets have a quick look at the COT report
I'm checking how the long and short side of producers are doing against the money managers


Here is the long side. Long producers are getting stronger and stronger, its almost positive. Watch out here


Here is the short side. Short side is saying there is still downside left....its not totally ready

But....

Traders most short within 3 years...

Crude oil, too many longs?

For the past 2/3 weeks i have mentionned about a correction in the oil market as the long side of money managers are going in too much

This week they are going even more longs. I would worry very much

Hey Biker , The formula of adding Net Producers and Net Swaps on the Disagg to equal Commercial Net on Legacy works for Disaggregated as you say. As for the TIFF report for financials , this same formula does not add up. WHY ? - Short answer , I dont know , but the total Open interest of both the Legacy and the TIFF for a particular asset are the same. How they divide the contracts up into their individual classes is a formula I don't know , but I'm sure its there in the numbers somewhere. I personally rarely trade financials so I don't spend a lot of time studying TIFF report. But I would assimilate the "Asset Managers" or "Leveraged Funds" more as a "Non Commercial" equivalent more so than "Others" . Hope that helps . CME have a Free COT Analysis tool you should study with Dissag and TIFF data.

https://www.cmegroup.com/tools-infor...f-traders.html

Daily sentiment



How to read it ?

When its too high, above 75/80 it shows extreme buying
When its too low, below 20/25 it shows extreme selling

It doesn't mean its time to sell or buy, but its a warning

Hi AussieBob,

Thank you for your reply
I did some digging and found the following PDF, not four you obviously, but for other people that might read this thread in the future.

https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...atorynotes.pdf
https://www.cftc.gov/sites/default/f...anatorynot.pdf

Extracted paragraph from Disaggregated Report (as you mentioned earlier)
Comparison of the Disaggregated Commitments of Traders Report to the Legacy Commitments of Traders Report
The legacy COT reports divide reportable traders into the two broad categories of “commercial” and “non-commercial.” The “commercial” trader category has always included producers, merchants, processors and users of the physical commodity who manage their business risks by hedging. It has also included swap dealers that may have incurred a risk in the over-the-counter (OTC) market and then offset that risk in the futures markets, regardless of whether their OTC counterparty was a commercial trader or a speculator. Those two categories of what has been reported as “commercial” traders are separately reported in the Disaggregated COT.
The “non-commercial” category of the legacy COT included professional money managers (CTAs, CPOs, and hedge funds) as well as a wide array of other non-commercial (speculative) traders. These two categories of what has been reported as “non-commercial” traders are separately reported as “The legacy COT reports divide reportable traders into the two broad categories of “commercial” and “non-commercial.” The “commercial” trader category has always included producers, merchants, processors and users of the physical commodity who manage their business risks by hedging. It has also included swap dealers that may have incurred a risk in the over-the-counter (OTC) market and then offset that risk in the futures markets, regardless of whether their OTC counterparty was a commercial trader or a speculator. Those two categories of what has been reported as “commercial” traders are separately reported in the Disaggregated COT. The “non-commercial” category of the legacy COT included professional money managers (CTAs, CPOs, and hedge funds) as well as a wide array of other non-commercial (speculative) traders. These two categories of what has been reported as “non-commercial” traders are separately reported as “money managers” and “other reportables” in the Disaggregated COT.”

For the Tradersin Financial Futures.
We have the following categories: 1) Dealer/Intermediary, 2) Asset Manager/Institutional, 3) Leveraged Funds, and 4) Other Reportables.
Where the Dealers/Intermediary are considered as the sell side and the rest the buy side.

Comparison of the TFF Report to the Legacy COT Report and to the Disaggregated COT Report for Physical Commodities
The legacy COT reports divide reportable traders into the two broad categories of “commercial” and “non-commercial.”
The “commercial” trader category has always included traders who report that they manage their business risks by hedging in futures. Everyone else is classified as “non-commercial.”
What is kind of strange is that when you add up the numbers is doesn't balance as for the commodities.

Lean hogs short money managers

Lean hogs traders are going shorts bigger as we go down
Looking at history, its doesn't bode well for them.
It only worked one time, when price was still "high" and not really after a dip down



I'm looking for buys around here and below. Not in a position yet

Copper to be flushed down

Watch out of the copper traders for the next macro move



Have a look at the producers, they are going heavy on the short side. They are increasing their short bets, hedging bigger as we move up.


Dumb money, money managers is going net long after a steep rise....don't be the bag holder

I just ignitiated a short today, will add if we rise more. Time to clear weak longs

Looking at the weekly chart (continuous contract) this could be a perfect alignment with the technical side of trading.