Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2523 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #50,441
  • Jun 16, 2020 2:39pm Jun 16, 2020 2:39pm
I read this some where and put it in my notes. Is this close to your modest range Billy? Is yours higher or lower?

"In many markets there is a 85% probability that today’s price activity will reach 75% of the value of the 5 day ADR. If the 5 day ADR is 100 then there
is a 85% probability today’s price move will add 75."
  • #50,442
  • Jun 16, 2020 2:40pm Jun 16, 2020 2:40pm
Like said I would do the counter / limbo / hedge thing but haven’t learned what to do here so far that’s why using the fixed stop is the only way i understand and can apply on this setup at the moment to have at least a chance trading it at all.

So right now it’s

- Trading it with a quiet far away stop loss many times bigger than TP and trust for some stats I didn’t see yet that it will have a very huge strike rate to compensate with +5 Pips IF this one, two, three big failed stops hit in.

- Using a tight stop loss of under 5 pips and get stopped out every time.

- Don’t trade it at all.
  • #50,443
  • Jun 16, 2020 2:54pm Jun 16, 2020 2:54pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi S, I understand what you write. First trade has a very high strike rate. If you get the 5 first break that is great. BUT, my trade is based on 2 or more parts. Meaning, I have my first break, then 2nd other end break/ counter. I actually expect to lose. As I say, like a champion boxer, he might get punched a couple of times and then he batters the opposition. Trade Well, and yes tight stops are suicide.
Yes, absolutely, I am aware of your strategy (mostly).
I am testing your limbo concept live small size - requires getting used to it. Kind of fascinating how price moves but the loss digits stay the same...and thinking this could go on for days - weird.

.
  • #50,444
  • Edited 7:01pm Jun 16, 2020 5:12pm | Edited 7:01pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOOSLOW1.png Size: 65 KB


Above chart - stats for H1 bar for each hour of the day. Looking for ranges greater than 13 pips. Above is number of bars range above 13 pips. Below is number of bars range below13 pips. Pct is the percent of time above and below happen. Max is biggest range for each hour. Min is smallest range for each hour.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOOSLOW2.png Size: 50 KB


Above chart - stats for H1 bar for last 24 hours. First number is the range in pips. The % is the percentile of the range for the last 100 bars.
H-L[10] is the bar 10 H1 bars ago. It had a range of 40 pips and was above the 79th percentile meaning 79 bars out of 100 had a range of less than 40 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOOSLOW.png Size: 49 KB


Above chart - Frequency distribution of the range of the last 240 H4 bars. 193 out of 240 bars had a range greater than 25 which is 80.42%.

These statistics may help you. Cheers!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #50,445
  • Jun 16, 2020 5:30pm Jun 16, 2020 5:30pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes but Billy says target for 5 pips so where should my stop loss be then, -1,5 Pips ? That would pretty sure stop me out 19 times of 20 days.
Forget the stop loss..!!!
I mentioned S.L.in my "take" on this method..post 49,408
On Billy bar system the limbo and countering are the way to go..
.I can't trade that way but good luck to all that can...take care
Onwards and upwards...
  • #50,446
  • Jun 16, 2020 6:04pm Jun 16, 2020 6:04pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TOOSLOW2.png Size: 45 KB


This may help a little, too. Cheers!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #50,447
  • Jun 16, 2020 6:16pm Jun 16, 2020 6:16pm
TooSLow, would you please mind giving a small description as to what the stats mean in each picture. They definitely look like they would be very helpful. TY for sharing.
  • #50,448
  • Jun 16, 2020 6:26pm Jun 16, 2020 6:26pm
Quoting bojack34
TooSLow, would you please mind giving a small description as to what the stats mean in each picture. They definitely look like they would be very helpful. TY for sharing.
I just wanted to ask the same.
  • #50,449
  • Jun 16, 2020 6:29pm Jun 16, 2020 6:29pm
Quoting soccerfan
{quote} Forget the stop loss..!!! I mentioned S.L.in my "take" on this method..post 49,408 On Billy bar system the limbo and countering are the way to go.. .I can't trade that way but good luck to all that can...take care
Yeah but hard to comprehend for me for now what actions exactly after a failed TP first break would be required to do.

Will have to read trough more of the hole thread.

Thanks for your comments.
  • #50,450
  • Jun 16, 2020 6:34pm Jun 16, 2020 6:34pm
Quoting Shaishen
{quote} I speak German and I understand your Gedankenvorgang .
I don't t speak German but can understand as I have been there as a Newbie..!!!..that is why I changed tactics..good luck
Onwards and upwards...
  • #50,451
  • Jun 16, 2020 6:35pm Jun 16, 2020 6:35pm
Quoting lddd
Like said I would do the counter / limbo / hedge thing but haven’t learned what to do here so far that’s why using the fixed stop is the only way i understand and can apply on this setup at the moment to have at least a chance trading it at all. So right now it’s - Trading it with a quiet far away stop loss many times bigger than TP and trust for some stats I didn’t see yet that it will have a very huge strike rate to compensate with +5 Pips IF this one, two, three big failed stops hit in. - Using a tight stop loss of under 5 pips and get stopped...
Counter or SL, whichever way you look at it, Billy always has a plan B. He wrote once that when he enters a trade, he EXPECTS it to fail. That way, if you lose, you're mentally prepared for how to claw back the loss. Simply trading the 8am bar break with a 5 pip TP a 15 pip SL is not going to work in the long run. You need to know what to do when it fails. And we all know it fails from time to time.

When this happens, Billy uses the daily range and 4 hour bars to potentially enter more trades.

You need to know in advance what you will do next.
  • #50,452
  • Jun 16, 2020 6:53pm Jun 16, 2020 6:53pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Counter or SL, whichever way you look at it, Billy always has a plan B. He wrote once that when he enters a trade, he EXPECTS it to fail. That way, if you lose, you're mentally prepared for how to claw back the loss. Simply trading the 8am bar break with a 5 pip TP a 15 pip SL is not going to work in the long run. You need to know what to do when it fails. And we all know it fails from time to time. When this happens, Billy uses the daily range and 4 hour bars to potentially enter more trades. You need to know in advance what you will do...
Yes. What I don’t understand is if you expect to lose your original trade then why open it at all, second if having to hedge it instead of taking a fixed loss, you could wait for the next day 0800 like I am doing so far and try again. Why would I want to lock in the trade as a hedge without knowing beforehand that the ongoing day will have high probability at least to unwind it at break even before my trading times are over and I can’t monitor anything anymore / don’t want to monitor anything anymore. This is actually what I failed with a lot of times in the pst already which lead me to overtrading and doing one trade after the other just to see my -15 pips day then turned into a even bigger nightmare. Thats where I finally came here in the hope to learn and improve, people told me to focus on one setup first which i am doing now but it already feels again a bit like a zero sum game doing it like I do so far. I mean am very happy and I think I already improved the last 2 weeks following all your kind replies, hope to find something „simple“ soon that will somehow just works for me to average a few pips a day without having to take to much risk on a single Position or having to follow up with dozens of different currency pairs or moving to higher time frame charts where I would perhaps have to hold trades open for much longer then I would like to, feel comfortable with.

Ok long post before bed time, few hours left and ding ding again for the Billy Bar
  • #50,453
  • Jun 16, 2020 7:01pm Jun 16, 2020 7:01pm
Quoting bojack34
TooSLow, would you please mind giving a small description as to what the stats mean in each picture. They definitely look like they would be very helpful. TY for sharing.
Description added to the original post. Cheers!
My Threads: Trading is as simple as 1-2-3, Highest Open / Lowest Open Trade
  • #50,454
  • Jun 16, 2020 7:12pm Jun 16, 2020 7:12pm
Quoting TooSlow
{quote} Description added to the original post. Cheers!
TYVM!
  • #50,455
  • Jun 16, 2020 9:35pm Jun 16, 2020 9:35pm
Hi all
another early bird trade this morning GU 00-00 H2 break low for +0.5%
see you later on
  • #50,456
  • Jun 16, 2020 11:53pm Jun 16, 2020 11:53pm
Quoting Nikl
Hi all another early bird trade this morning GU 00-00 H2 break low for +0.5% see you later on
Good work m8.. I took 5 on Tokyo open+15 trade
What time W.A. did your 2 hour Close..???
Onwards and upwards...
  • #50,457
  • Jun 17, 2020 12:42am Jun 17, 2020 12:42am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes. What I don’t understand is if you expect to lose your original trade then why open it at all, second if having to hedge it instead of taking a fixed loss, you could wait for the next day 0800 like I am doing so far and try again. Why would I want to lock in the trade as a hedge without knowing beforehand that the ongoing day will have high probability at least to unwind it at break even before my trading times are over and I can’t monitor anything anymore / don’t want to monitor anything anymore. This is actually what I failed with...
hedging is good when you dont want to loose margin power. read the old posts of "dancigphil". he describes this good. or do your own trading experiment with a $,euro 100 account trade the max. allowed position. then make a loss and look at the margin level and free margin after you hedge it. then you will get the idea why hedging can be useful.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #50,458
  • Jun 17, 2020 12:44am Jun 17, 2020 12:44am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Really don't understand what you're trying to say R:R = risk v reward which ever way you look at it. So risking 3 to get 1 is high risk to me. Simple stuff.
example 80% successrate, R:R 1:3

8 winners +1 unit= +8
2 loosers -3 unit= -6

you end with +2 after 10 trades statistically.

have a look at TooSlow threads and trades of HAL. they do this everyday there and it works.

so i think it was a simple missunderstanding here.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #50,459
  • Jun 17, 2020 1:03am Jun 17, 2020 1:03am
Quoting birdland
{quote} example 80% successrate, R:R 1:3 8 winners +1 unit= +8 2 loosers -3 unit= -6 you end with +2 after 10 trades statistically. have a look at TooSlow threads and trades of HAL. they do this everyday there and it works. so i think it was a simple missunderstanding here.
another example of a very successful strategie with Risk:Reward of 2:1
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...9#post13007949
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #50,460
  • Jun 17, 2020 1:28am Jun 17, 2020 1:28am
Hi all, Hope you are all well.

First, I EXPECT TO FAIL,,, DOES NOT MEAN I WANT TO FAIL...…...

Scenario, we attack the enemy, we have foot soldiers, artillery , air power.
we trade, we have trigger, opposite end trade, counter, daily range.

I HAVE PLAN B, as part of the trade method.
Trade well all.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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