Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2518 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #50,341
  • Jun 15, 2020 2:43am Jun 15, 2020 2:43am
this is what distracted my this morning, mad world we are currently living in
https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video...PLR2vqHiI2.mp4
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #50,342
  • Jun 15, 2020 2:45am Jun 15, 2020 2:45am
Quoting mrcreosote
this is what distracted my this morning, mad world we are currently living in https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video...PLR2vqHiI2.mp4
I wish I hadn't clicked on that
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
  • #50,343
  • Jun 15, 2020 2:53am Jun 15, 2020 2:53am
Renko view of the DAX, 10 pip bricks. I think if/when it breaks it will be a strong move
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30(£)M3 15_06(1).png Size: 38 KB
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
  • #50,344
  • Jun 15, 2020 2:55am Jun 15, 2020 2:55am
Quoting Davidh061
{quote} I wish I hadn't clicked on that
Apologies, keep concentrating on the DAX!!
I follow this guy on twitter https://twitter.com/The_Real_Fly his website is ibankcoin - bit dramatic but he posts some interesting stuff, bit like zerohedge, I like that cos he keeps predicting the end of the world lol
Anyway, like Billy keeps saying, don't think, trade the lines!
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #50,345
  • Jun 15, 2020 2:58am Jun 15, 2020 2:58am
Hi all, I see we have some happy people here, yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay.

My first 2 trades off the 00-00 4 hour bar Cable & E/U had a minor set back lol. high broke then retrace, soooooooooo counter/trade fix

08-00 15 minute bar break, as you all know high broke for +5%.
While I am here,,, even though I took 5, I have been known to take more,
A day like this I notice, some of you took more yaaaay,
The 5 was made but it kept going up,
JUST REMEMBER, it might retrace so be ready to close with what ever you can make.
Trade well all.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,346
  • Jun 15, 2020 3:44am Jun 15, 2020 3:44am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Be careful with letting those trades run for more than +5.
Sometimes we have to let the winners run to make up for the losing days. Doesn't always work but locking in your profit at +5, and then giving the trade free reign to go where it will go has done well for me in the past.
  • #50,347
  • Jun 15, 2020 3:50am Jun 15, 2020 3:50am
Quoting Davidh061
Renko view of the DAX, 10 pip bricks. I think if/when it breaks it will be a strong move {image}
I can never get Renko bricks to work. Why do they make it so complicated lol.

How many 10 pip bricks would constitute a breakout (trade trigger) for you David?
  • #50,348
  • Jun 15, 2020 3:51am Jun 15, 2020 3:51am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} I can never get Renko bricks to work. Why do they make it so complicated lol. How many 10 pip bricks would constitute a breakout (trade trigger) for you David?
sometimes yes, but how do you define "sometimes" its worth to let it run?
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #50,349
  • Jun 15, 2020 4:15am Jun 15, 2020 4:15am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} I can never get Renko bricks to work. Why do they make it so complicated lol. How many 10 pip bricks would constitute a breakout (trade trigger) for you David?
Hi Ia, I look for areas of consolidation where the market gets compressed into a small reversal then heads off again, or a retracement of maybe 30-40 pips before resuming the trend direction. 30-40 pips might sound a lot, but its a twitch on the DAX! On some currency pairs you could wait all day for that sort of retracement. It has taken me some time to get to grips with Renko, there are various flavours but I really like this particular Renko EA by Mathtrader7 on FF. Here's one I made earlier, from Friday last, +49. Cheers, Dave
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GER30(£)M314_06.png Size: 48 KB
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
  • #50,350
  • Jun 15, 2020 4:27am Jun 15, 2020 4:27am
Quoting birdland
{quote} sometimes yes, but how do you define "sometimes" its worth to let it run?
Say if the breakout is in line with your overall daily bias, you may want to let it run. Also, sometimes the strength of the breakout will tell you what you need to know.
  • #50,351
  • Jun 15, 2020 4:29am Jun 15, 2020 4:29am
Quoting Davidh061
{quote} Hi Ia, I look for areas of consolidation where the market gets compressed into a small reversal then heads off again, or a retracement of maybe 30-40 pips before resuming the trend direction. 30-40 pips might sound a lot, but its a twitch on the DAX! On some currency pairs you could wait all day for that sort of retracement. It has taken me some time to get to grips with Renko, there are various flavours but I really like this particular Renko EA by Mathtrader7 on FF. Here's one I made earlier, from Friday last, +49. Cheers, Dave {image}...
Thanks Dave that was helpful. I'll look into it.
  • #50,352
  • Jun 15, 2020 4:35am Jun 15, 2020 4:35am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Thanks Dave that was helpful. I'll look into it.
No problem, I was thinking about what you said earlier, Renko is like any chart technique or format, you have to own it and make it your own. You find what works and what doesn't any you refine your technique. I think I'm just repeating what Billy and others have said!
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
  • #50,353
  • Jun 15, 2020 4:36am Jun 15, 2020 4:36am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Say if the breakout is in line with your overall daily bias, you may want to let it run. Also, sometimes the strength of the breakout will tell you what you need to know.
ok i agree. especially today i saw and felt the strenght to go for more then 5pips
nethertheless took the save +5;-)
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #50,354
  • Jun 15, 2020 4:52am Jun 15, 2020 4:52am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Sometimes we have to let the winners run to make up for the losing days. Doesn't always work but locking in your profit at +5, and then giving the trade free reign to go where it will go has done well for me in the past.
I am not sure yet how I could leave it run. How do you do it. Maybe a partial close, trailing stop?

Lets say my original trade I take with 1 Lot runs towards my daily goal of +1% (7 Pips) then I would have to protect the 7 Pips (book in profit).

Leaving the trade open in the hope of it keeps going beyond that initial TP I would have to also risk the trade retraces back on me hitting my SL or opening the counter at the opposite trigger instead, so an already winning trade would turn into a loser, that wouldn’t be good.

Maybe better to wait until you have a series of winners and then open the next trade with increased position size (re-invest some of the wins you had earlier) would be an option.
  • #50,355
  • Jun 15, 2020 4:56am Jun 15, 2020 4:56am
Quoting lemercenaire
Right guys. It seems like many panties are getting into a twist over countering. There are a few separate issues going on here and I'll try and deal with them now - so, in no particular order: 1. You seem to be confused as to the reason for and function of the counter. This trade is not designed to make back any loss from a first entry. It is there to stop that first bad trade from getting any worse...ever. Taking swaps out of the equation, this set-up can be left till the end of time and never drop any more into negative territory. This gives you...
A great post by Lem where he goes into detail about countering/hedging.
  • #50,356
  • Jun 15, 2020 5:11am Jun 15, 2020 5:11am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} A great post by Lem where he goes into detail about countering/hedging.
Yes.

Just don't understand the advantage of it over locking in a fixed loss instead at what ever your risk level is on a single trade.

So far it seems to me it’s only psychological advantage maybe that you feel better with not having a fixed loss booked in, which is final.

Instead you have 2 floating positions then, one negative one positive. It would be from advantage if by the end of the day, or maybe the next days, you would be able to unwind the negative side at break even but you can‘t forecast that.

You could even do worst by making a higher loss then if doing anything wrong by trying to come out of the hedge.
  • #50,357
  • Jun 15, 2020 5:28am Jun 15, 2020 5:28am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I am not sure yet how I could leave it run. How do you do it. Maybe a partial close, trailing stop? Lets say my original trade I take with 1 Lot runs towards my daily goal of +1% (7 Pips) then I would have protect that 7 Pips (book in profit). Leaving the trade open in the hope of it keeps going beyond that initial TP I would have to also risk the trade retraces back on me hitting my SL or opening the counter at the opposite trigger instead, so an already winning trade would turn into a loser, that wouldn’t be good. Maybe better to wait...
I sometimes look for more than 5 pips (but my risk is lower). I let the 15 minute bar break and see how far it goes. More often than not, the bar only breaks 2 or 3 times in one day. If I lose 1 or 2 trades, the rewards are usually higher when it eventually takes direction. The bar has to be relatively small for this to work. Maybe no more than 10 or 15 pips.
  • #50,358
  • Jun 15, 2020 5:34am Jun 15, 2020 5:34am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes. Just don't understand the advantage of it over locking in a fixed loss instead at what ever your risk level is on a single trade. So far it seems to me it’s only psychological advantage maybe that you feel better with not having a fixed loss booked in, which is final. Instead you have 2 floating positions then, one negative one positive. It would be from advantage if by the end of the day, or maybe the next days, you would be able to unwind the negative side at break even but you can‘t forecast that. You could even do worst by making...
Yeah hedging isn't easy which is why if we're not comfortable, taking a loss is more sensible so that we can move on. For hedge/counter trades, you need a large balance, plus belief that the system works, as well as lightning fast reactions.
  • #50,359
  • Jun 15, 2020 5:55am Jun 15, 2020 5:55am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} Hi Bo - I'm not speaking for Billy here (well, yes, I guess I am but you know what I mean, lol). On the surface you are perfectly correct. However, the key lies in the fact that in the counter ''block'' (of two trades), these trades are still open. They are not losses (or wins) until they are closed. Now for me - and I will say that again...for me - this means that I can chip away at those open trades and reduce the floating loss. I will do this until another major trigger occurs and yes, it requires a certain amount of nimbleness about...
Another gem that deals with counter trading.
  • #50,360
  • Jun 15, 2020 6:19am Jun 15, 2020 6:19am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} I sometimes look for more than 5 pips (but my risk is lower). I let the 15 minute bar break and see how far it goes. More often than not, the bar only breaks 2 or 3 times in one day. If I lose 1 or 2 trades, the rewards are usually higher when it eventually takes direction. The bar has to be relatively small for this to work. Maybe no more than 10 or 15 pips.
For example today the Billy Bar has broken in one direction only so far. And given us over 70 pips with a risk of less than 15 pips. Hopefully that's a light bulb moment. Imagine if it failed twice (so we lost 30 pips), the eventual move more than covers the loss most days. Doesn't work every day obviously. If I'm trading like this, I'll only ever let it fail twice or 3 times at most. Then move on to the next trade/day. When you trade like this, it's sensible to trade with a smaller risk instead of trying 1%/pip.
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