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COT: The precious data ignored
- #383
- Jun 9, 2020 1:47am Jun 9, 2020 1:47am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
Net Money Managers and Money managers Shorts. The Shorts are always wrong at Tops and Bottoms. Now trading into Monthly Open. Expect some Downside. Hey Kuroro , am I ok to post on this thread or do you wanna keep it as your own thing H? {image}
Nice chart.
What i would need is to see Swap Dealers to go short like they were before (because producers are very short, and money managers are very loaded)
COT: The precious data ignored
- #385
- Jun 13, 2020 1:42am Jun 13, 2020 1:42am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
S&P500 : Equities sell off to continue?
Look at the s&p dealers, usually they are very short at the top, very long at the bottom (or less short lets say because equity market is always a buy the dip, so the buy-side is buying a lot, and reducing on the way up)
The red circles are the classic scenario, very short on tops.
But what happens when its not the case? Check the blue circles, dealers are very net shorts on bottom ? How annoying right?
This kind of anomality from the smart money is showing they know something. Its showing they are a LOT of interest in selling on top right now (the same way there had a lot of interest in buying in december 2018 when dealers were very short at the bottom).
Assets managers seem to have been away from this buying since a few months. But they have been buying more in a few weeks lately. Buying a lot near the top ?
Money managers Are very good at spotting bottom, they have been net buyers on every bottoms. They are 10% net shorts right now, on the highs for the past 4 years (record over the past decade was more than 16% though). But such a net short near a top needs to be considered
Vix short dealers keep decreasing, showing s&p has space for a downmove
Vix short assets managers are finally going short weeks after weeks, as trend followers and bad guys at timing the market, the more they increase their short, the more the market is exposed to downside risk
With a put/call ratio at historical lows, dealers long on top (annoying), money managers very short, vix dealers decreasing their short bet....no surprises to see a drop in equities
Look at the s&p dealers, usually they are very short at the top, very long at the bottom (or less short lets say because equity market is always a buy the dip, so the buy-side is buying a lot, and reducing on the way up)
The red circles are the classic scenario, very short on tops.
But what happens when its not the case? Check the blue circles, dealers are very net shorts on bottom ? How annoying right?
This kind of anomality from the smart money is showing they know something. Its showing they are a LOT of interest in selling on top right now (the same way there had a lot of interest in buying in december 2018 when dealers were very short at the bottom).
Assets managers seem to have been away from this buying since a few months. But they have been buying more in a few weeks lately. Buying a lot near the top ?
Money managers Are very good at spotting bottom, they have been net buyers on every bottoms. They are 10% net shorts right now, on the highs for the past 4 years (record over the past decade was more than 16% though). But such a net short near a top needs to be considered
Vix short dealers keep decreasing, showing s&p has space for a downmove
Vix short assets managers are finally going short weeks after weeks, as trend followers and bad guys at timing the market, the more they increase their short, the more the market is exposed to downside risk
With a put/call ratio at historical lows, dealers long on top (annoying), money managers very short, vix dealers decreasing their short bet....no surprises to see a drop in equities
COT: The precious data ignored
- #386
- Jun 13, 2020 2:45am Jun 13, 2020 2:45am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
Sugar fake rally ?
Producers are increasing their net shorts as prices rise, not much more to see
Money managers just went net long on the sugar market. Usually whenever they are very long, its a bad time to long.
At this point, if you are long, no more longs
By looking at the short side of the money managers, they aren't very short, which is NOT a sign of bottoming market
Weekly system is increasing for the short side, it agrees with producers
Producers are increasing their net shorts as prices rise, not much more to see
Money managers just went net long on the sugar market. Usually whenever they are very long, its a bad time to long.
At this point, if you are long, no more longs
By looking at the short side of the money managers, they aren't very short, which is NOT a sign of bottoming market
Weekly system is increasing for the short side, it agrees with producers
COT: The precious data ignored
- #387
- Jun 13, 2020 3:50am Jun 13, 2020 3:50am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
Copper rally over?
Copper producers went short hedge like crazy, something to watch out and i wouldn't advise to go against it.
Money managers are going very long, from net short to net long. Another warning sign for the bulls
Here is a chart regarding the long/short traders (on a -100%/100% scale, borned). Longs are near the highest within 3 years, and its going up fast
Weekly system confirms the market participants view
I'll look for opportunities to sell this rally, go on the producer's side
On a side note, EURUSD is 80% correlated to the copper, We may be on the verge of another drop in copper and a rise in dollar
Watch out
Copper producers went short hedge like crazy, something to watch out and i wouldn't advise to go against it.
Money managers are going very long, from net short to net long. Another warning sign for the bulls
Here is a chart regarding the long/short traders (on a -100%/100% scale, borned). Longs are near the highest within 3 years, and its going up fast
Weekly system confirms the market participants view
I'll look for opportunities to sell this rally, go on the producer's side
On a side note, EURUSD is 80% correlated to the copper, We may be on the verge of another drop in copper and a rise in dollar
Watch out
COT: The precious data ignored
- #388
- Jun 13, 2020 6:04am Jun 13, 2020 6:04am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
Coffee too late to sell ?
Coffee money managers are increasing their short bets at the bottom, smart move? No!
Coffee money managers are increasing their short bets at the bottom, smart move? No!
COT: The precious data ignored
- #389
- Jun 13, 2020 6:14am Jun 13, 2020 6:14am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
Biggest Corn net short positions for a decade
Bears, watch out
Bears, watch out
COT: The precious data ignored
- #390
- Jun 14, 2020 7:43am Jun 14, 2020 7:43am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
Buying s&p now ?
I'll show a quick analysis regarding the dealers of s&p over the period of 2012-2015, then i'll have a look at the same dealers over the 2016-2020 period
Above is the 2012-2015 chart, from the s&p dealers, the green rectangle represent the time where the dealers are net buyers.
We can't see much here, so i'll zoom in the 2 different rectangles:
1-
You can see dealers accumulate, become net longs at/near a bottom (after a drop).
2-
In here, the green rectangles are showing dealers accumulate at/near a bottom (always after a drop in prices).
The red rectangles are the anomalies, whenever dealers accumulate more, but on/near a top (after a rise in prices).
Dealers should NOT accumulate longs after a quick rise.
Now lets have a look at the situation today
Dealers are accumulating on/near a top (after a steep rise again). Its very annoying, its a big anomaly here. That's why its NOT the time to buy equities
I can see 2 scenarios here, the most probable
its possible to see others but they don't fit my rules so i won't them into account if i see them
First scenario : We'll see some ranges up there (up and down, maybe new highs but weak one which shall be faded), until the dealers become shorts.
Once they are short, we shall see a drop in price (huge or not i can't tell). Once the drop happens, dealers may accumulate even more, then the big fat move up shall occur.
Second scenario : Immediate drop from here (huge or not no ones knows) then dealers will accumulate more longs quickly to stage another rally.
To sum it up, i'll be waiting for a good drop before thinking about buying, and i'll monitor the dealer's activity
I'll show a quick analysis regarding the dealers of s&p over the period of 2012-2015, then i'll have a look at the same dealers over the 2016-2020 period
Above is the 2012-2015 chart, from the s&p dealers, the green rectangle represent the time where the dealers are net buyers.
We can't see much here, so i'll zoom in the 2 different rectangles:
1-
You can see dealers accumulate, become net longs at/near a bottom (after a drop).
2-
In here, the green rectangles are showing dealers accumulate at/near a bottom (always after a drop in prices).
The red rectangles are the anomalies, whenever dealers accumulate more, but on/near a top (after a rise in prices).
Dealers should NOT accumulate longs after a quick rise.
Now lets have a look at the situation today
Dealers are accumulating on/near a top (after a steep rise again). Its very annoying, its a big anomaly here. That's why its NOT the time to buy equities
I can see 2 scenarios here, the most probable
its possible to see others but they don't fit my rules so i won't them into account if i see them
First scenario : We'll see some ranges up there (up and down, maybe new highs but weak one which shall be faded), until the dealers become shorts.
Once they are short, we shall see a drop in price (huge or not i can't tell). Once the drop happens, dealers may accumulate even more, then the big fat move up shall occur.
Second scenario : Immediate drop from here (huge or not no ones knows) then dealers will accumulate more longs quickly to stage another rally.
To sum it up, i'll be waiting for a good drop before thinking about buying, and i'll monitor the dealer's activity
COT: The precious data ignored
- #391
- Jun 15, 2020 7:28am Jun 15, 2020 7:28am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
COT: The precious data ignored
- #393
- Jun 16, 2020 11:35pm Jun 16, 2020 11:35pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
COT: The precious data ignored
- #394
- Edited Jun 17, 2020 10:26pm Jun 16, 2020 11:42pm | Edited Jun 17, 2020 10:26pm
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
COT: The precious data ignored
- #398
- Jun 20, 2020 2:31am Jun 20, 2020 2:31am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
S&P500 to keep rising ?
I won't post what the dealers, assets managers and money managers did this week because it didn't move at all
Hence the price is left where it was last friday
....but ..... lets have a look at the VIX compared to the S&P
As you can see, short dealers of the vix have increased their bet....its a good thing for bulls on the s&p
And....
Short assets managers of the vix decreased their bet
Its like they are giving up on the downside....
I won't post what the dealers, assets managers and money managers did this week because it didn't move at all
Hence the price is left where it was last friday
....but ..... lets have a look at the VIX compared to the S&P
As you can see, short dealers of the vix have increased their bet....its a good thing for bulls on the s&p
And....
Short assets managers of the vix decreased their bet
Its like they are giving up on the downside....
COT: The precious data ignored
- #400
- Jun 20, 2020 4:32am Jun 20, 2020 4:32am
- Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Trader | 17,796 Posts
COT: The precious data ignored