Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2516 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #50,301
  • Jun 12, 2020 5:31am Jun 12, 2020 5:31am
Quoting billytt
{quote} nice trade bud.
Thanks Billy, have a great weekend!
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
  • #50,302
  • Jun 12, 2020 5:52am Jun 12, 2020 5:52am
so its raining, they said sun,
To pass time I have been trading e/u off the 12-00 1 hour bar lol. its dropping as I type,
only small size trades.
t 13-52

edit, actually it wasn't, it was Cable lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,303
  • Jun 12, 2020 7:38am Jun 12, 2020 7:38am
My results for this week.

GU M15 08:00-8:15

08.06.20 -10
09.06.20 +5
10.06.20 +5
11.06.20 +5
12.06.20 +5
  • #50,304
  • Jun 12, 2020 7:42am Jun 12, 2020 7:42am
Quoting lddd
My results for this week. GU M15 08:00-8:15 08.06.20 -5 09.06.20 +5 10.06.20 +5 11.06.20 +5 12.06.20 +5 +15 (~ +$150,00) +3%
what is your max range? Looks like your using 1% per 5 pips. So a range of 25 will give you a 5% risk.
  • #50,305
  • Edited 8:05am Jun 12, 2020 7:55am | Edited 8:05am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} what is your max range? Looks like your using 1% per 5 pips. So a range of 25 will give you a 5% risk.
Not sure what you mean by max range.

I traded this week only GU 08 bar for +5 TP net profit. Actually 1-2 Pips more per trade to account for spread and com. So TP was 6-7 Pips.

Monday started with -10. 2 Trades triggered at high and low. It was retracing up and down and i was not sure what to do (no counter, hedge). Both trades had a fixed SL +5 Pips. both stopped out. So this could have been avoided i think, at least one trade.

The other 4 days were all won for +5 (without usage of any SL but would have closed manually at -15 per Trade max). Because Claudia told me +5 SL on GU would be a bit tight and she is right. So i am more lucky for now i guess.

So its 3% risk per trade compared to a potential 1% profit.

I started with 5k. Took around 1 Lot per Trade, so +1 Pip ($10) (1%, yeah)

+ $5.152,72 (now).
  • #50,306
  • Jun 12, 2020 8:21am Jun 12, 2020 8:21am
Quoting billytt
so its raining, they said sun, To pass time I have been trading e/u off the 12-00 1 hour bar lol. its dropping as I type, only small size trades. t 13-52 edit, actually it wasn't, it was Cable lol
it's that day of the week folks.
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #50,307
  • Jun 12, 2020 8:42am Jun 12, 2020 8:42am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Not sure what you mean by max range. I traded this week only GU 08 bar for +5 TP net profit. Actually 1-2 Pips more per trade to account for spread and com. So TP was 6-7 Pips. Monday started with -10. 2 Trades triggered at high and low. It was retracing up and down and i was not sure what to do (no counter, hedge). Both trades had a fixed SL +5 Pips. both stopped out. So this could have been avoided i think, at least one trade. The other 4 days were all won for +5 (without usage of any SL but would have closed manually at -15 per Trade...
so if your making 1% per 5 pips traded. If you're risking 3% per trade that means your SL is 15 pips? is this correct? If you were trading a a 25 pip range then your risk would be 5%
  • #50,308
  • Jun 12, 2020 8:55am Jun 12, 2020 8:55am
got my 5 on each set up 0400 and 815
  • #50,309
  • Jun 12, 2020 11:26am Jun 12, 2020 11:26am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} so if your making 1% per 5 pips traded. If you're risking 3% per trade that means your SL is 15 pips? is this correct? If you were trading a a 25 pip range then your risk would be 5%
Yes correct, but like said I don’t think this will go well. The -15 Pips SL is already tight. A few losers in a row and it will get hard to impossible to even come back to break even during 20 days by just doing that 1 trade per day.

Maybe if risking even more on a single entry and for sure the win rate hitting at least these 6-7 Pips needs to be high otherwise a few stop outs would ruine any profits made.
  • #50,310
  • Jun 12, 2020 11:36am Jun 12, 2020 11:36am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes correct, but like said I don’t think this will go well. The -15 Pips SL is already tight. A few losers in a row and it will get hard to impossible to even come back to break even during 20 days by just doing that 1 trade per day. Maybe if risking even more on a single entry and for sure the win rate hitting at least these 6-7 Pips needs to be high otherwise a few stop outs would ruine any profits made.
Here's what I started trying lately. Trade the 08-15 bar with GU. ONLY trade when the "bar" or "range" is between 10-20, with a TP of 10 pips. You will obviously not be trading everyday but when you do trade you will have stats on your side and you will get somewhere between .5% and 1%. You could also try using minimum range/bar of 15-25 instead. Billy adjusts his SL's to 15 when he enters a trade on a range that is less than 15.
  • #50,311
  • Jun 12, 2020 11:51am Jun 12, 2020 11:51am
Quoting bojack34
{quote} Here's what I started trying lately. Trade the 08-15 bar with GU. ONLY trade when the "bar" or "range" is between 10-20, with a TP of 10 pips. You will obviously not be trading everyday but when you do trade you will have stats on your side and you will get somewhere between .5% and 1%. You could also try using minimum range/bar of 15-25 instead. Billy adjusts his SL's to 15 when he enters a trade on a range that is less than 15.
Good to know. My trade on Thursday, the range for the 8:00 bar was already 30 pips I think, that’s where I felt uncomfortable with and got out with +1. Also nearly 80% of the 5 days ADR was already reached at that time.

I asked Billy about it and he also told me he wouldn’t take such setup where the 8:00 bar is already „big“ and ADR not giving much further room for the day.

It might be better to hedge instead of taking the loss but I think this would require certain more criteria to be in alignment and so far I am not sure exactly what that is about. Thats why I set my self a 3% max stop loss for now.
  • #50,312
  • Edited 7:15am Jun 13, 2020 6:31am | Edited 7:15am
I came across this comment in a post just now from a guy named dancingphil and I thought it was a perfect fit for this thread, so I had to re-post it here..........

"I personally see Stop Losses as the most singularly DUMBEST idea of Money Management (MM) concept I have ever heard of. Stop Losses have never MANAGED money. They in fact are a systemic LOSS Management system.

IF EVER I am so wrong with a trade entry, then I want that position locked up with an opposing hedge. And then I will deal with unlocking this hedged position by using my next trade entry setup to close one leg of my hedge (not opening a 3rd trade), and then using my trading system to later close the remaining leg of the hedge - ideally also in profit, but at least at a break even position."






Here's a few more comments he made that might help others understand the "unwinding" of a hedged trade.........

"... releasing one side of your hedge is just like a new trade signal being acted on. Be extra sure this trade signal has the highest probability of success (as you should always do anyway), and then release that side of the hedge."

".....with a hedge, the trades are balanced, and all margin is once again free margin. I then have the time and luxury of considering my position."

"....When trading at "x" lots per $1,000 of account, I am almost at the highest lot sizing that 400:1 leveraged trading will allow. Taking a 30% hit to equity by a stop loss being reached, my next trade would have to be significantly smaller than the one just closed out.

So it is better to balance both trades with the hedge. Treat both trades as different trades; one of which I will close at the next solid trading signal my system gives me, and get my "x" pips plus commission back and close out the remaining trade.

Hedging allows me to continue at my full lot sizing. Stop loss concepts mean I would have to drastically reduce the size of my next trade, and it would take much longer (more pips) to claw back my loss."
  • #50,313
  • Jun 13, 2020 7:11am Jun 13, 2020 7:11am
Quoting bojack34
I came across this comment in a post just now and I thought it was a perfect fit for this thread, so I had to re-post it here. "I personally see Stop Losses as the most singularly DUMBEST idea of Money Management (MM) concept I have ever heard of. Stop Losses have never MANAGED money. They in fact are a systemic LOSS Management system. IF EVER I am so wrong with a trade entry, then I want that position locked up with an opposing hedge. And then I will deal with unlocking this hedged position by using my next trade entry setup to close one leg of...
I would really like to learn more about how Billy or anyone else here using a hedge is doing / managing it.
  • #50,314
  • Jun 13, 2020 7:12am Jun 13, 2020 7:12am
Quoting bojack34
I came across this comment in a post just now and I thought it was a perfect fit for this thread, so I had to re-post it here. "I personally see Stop Losses as the most singularly DUMBEST idea of Money Management (MM) concept I have ever heard of. Stop Losses have never MANAGED money. They in fact are a systemic LOSS Management system. IF EVER I am so wrong with a trade entry, then I want that position locked up with an opposing hedge. And then I will deal with unlocking this hedged position by using my next trade entry setup to close one leg of...
DP was a sound guy, another guy who had a sound approach to trading as i do.
i did speak to him but nothing fancy,
It didn't matter what he said he made as it is irrelevant
The thing that did matter, is that , it is possible to do it. .
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,315
  • Jun 13, 2020 7:13am Jun 13, 2020 7:13am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I would really like to learn more about how Billy or anyone else here using a hedge is doing / managing it.
You have too many doubts, too many negative thoughts.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,316
  • Jun 13, 2020 7:32am Jun 13, 2020 7:32am
Quoting billytt
{quote} You have too many doubts, too many negative thoughts.
Not sure what makes you think like that, but ok.
  • #50,317
  • Jun 13, 2020 12:09pm Jun 13, 2020 12:09pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} I would really like to learn more about how Billy or anyone else here using a hedge is doing / managing it.
Post 50312 is a good start as it is very simply set out. You can read Billy's posts, some of which are hedges. BUT you then have to demo them on your own to fully understand. You have to stop being so negative and jump in the water. Otherwise you will spend more years chasing that elusive dream you harbour to be a trader.
Stick to one approach and master it rather than flit from forum to forum seeking ready made solutions. They don't exist.
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #50,318
  • Jun 13, 2020 12:12pm Jun 13, 2020 12:12pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Post 50312 is a good start as it is very simply set out. You can read Billy's posts, some of which are hedges. BUT you then have to demo them on your own to fully understand. You have to stop being so negative and jump in the water. Otherwise you will spend more years chasing that elusive dream you harbour to be a trader. Stick to one approach and master it rather than flit from forum to forum seeking ready made solutions. They don't exist.
Thank you Mr T.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,319
  • Jun 13, 2020 1:16pm Jun 13, 2020 1:16pm
- If I have a Trigger Trade and a Retrace Trade both go BAD/FAIL and I have to COUNTER THEM BOTH, this is what I do....Add the trigger trade and
retrace trade together and counter that combined, and wait for next trigger. I might have several counters running all playing against each other.....~~Billytt~~
  • #50,320
  • Jun 13, 2020 2:56pm Jun 13, 2020 2:56pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Post 50312 is a good start as it is very simply set out. You can read Billy's posts, some of which are hedges. BUT you then have to demo them on your own to fully understand. You have to stop being so negative and jump in the water. Otherwise you will spend more years chasing that elusive dream you harbour to be a trader. Stick to one approach and master it rather than flit from forum to forum seeking ready made solutions. They don't exist.
Thanks for your reply, will look at what has been written here about hedges.

I am not sure what I did that you guys judge my self to be negative, where you don’t even know me.

I am throughly positive.

Asking some questions, not trusting anything blindly comes from experience, doesn’t mean i see things negative in any way.

I think i already wrote a few times that Billy’s thread has been a great asset to me so far.

regards, until Monday.
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