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Real or Algo

  • #501
  • Jun 6, 2020 10:43pm Jun 6, 2020 10:43pm
I rarely participate on threads here on FF, not worth the cheese in the end, but this is a great thread moodybot so will throw a cat amongst the pigeons.

Algo for sure, although a small % manual participants, mostly retail. Large bank and instit positions cannot simply be dropped into the market, they have to be drip fed in, the best most efficient economic method will be algo regulated.

Some time ago I read an article, maybe here, where a member mentioned an algo farm called 'mother' which very likely fits the program in fx. Way too often you can change a SL during low vol periods and see particular behaviour of price action as a result. Particular price action on entry can also be very obvious, I am not talking about fundamental changing size moves, just reaction to opening a position. It appears to be set up so that larger positions do not cause sharp reactions, maybe they are directed straight into appropriate avenues? Although some times during the Asian session some will not be appropriately redirected.

Honestly if you can't see algo behavior you either haven't been trading fx very long, or you are supporting the system. From London open to US close, the activity I am referring to is hardly noticeable for obvious reasons. The inverse of this is, if a London wants to move a pair they do it during Asian session, and on Mondays as we have seen lately.

This is where I throw the cat in: In the past approx 5-8 years I have noticed demo accounts behaving so much like live accounts, the astute would have also noticed this. I propose 'many' demo accounts now provide liquidity to overall fx markets but orders are not passed through. Some low end brokers may still run local servers for demos.

I look forward to the fireworks.
My comments are not to be taken as trading advice, not a financial advisor
  • #502
  • Jun 7, 2020 12:54am Jun 7, 2020 12:54am
Quoting Chris.GER
{quote} Hello hepzibah, I also find USDCAD very interesting. And when I zoom in on the chart (M15) I see a lot of Algo and Market Maker games. Regards Chris {image}
Yes Chris, all pairs and all timeframes. I trade mostly indices these days as I am a scalper and they tend to give you more movement which helps when trading the lower tf's.

This may be over simplistic but I see the gaps as the tracks of the algo pushing price in the required direction, clearing areas of low liquidity on the way to their targets which are previously opened gaps and previous H/Ls. So the rhs of the charts shows the new lines/gaps being formed which are a mixture of what I call mid bar gaps (the blue lines, also referred to previously as hidden gaps, transient zones, etc ..........) and non-interlocking bars (the orange lines). The interesting areas for targets is where price stops short of taking out a previous gap (the rectangles I've marked are just some of them that occurred on GJ on Friday). I have no idea whether the algo doesn't yet see sufficient stops below to make it worth its while to take them just yet so moves away until there is a juicier prize, or whether it has reached Rick's expansion limit. But it is a pretty safe bet that they will be taken out at some point so you can wait until they start to push price back that way.
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  • #503
  • Jun 8, 2020 3:50am Jun 8, 2020 3:50am
Quoting hepsibah
{quote} Yes Chris, all pairs and all timeframes. I trade mostly indices these days as I am a scalper and they tend to give you more movement which helps when trading the lower tf's. This may be over simplistic but I see the gaps as the tracks of the algo pushing price in the required direction, clearing areas of low liquidity on the way to their targets which are previously opened gaps and previous H/Ls. So the rhs of the charts shows the new lines/gaps being formed which are a mixture of what I call mid bar gaps (the blue lines, also referred to...
Hi Hepsibah

The only moves that were limited by the Algo were on the long side, those pullbacks were just normal interaction between aggressive market orders and passive limit orders. Here you can see the first two boundary hits reversed as per the Algo's plan, plus we had the advantage of a targets at each level. I missed the first one so missed 20 pips. I was able to get 22 pips on the second boundary with three trades. The best hit of course was the top Boundary reversal and was also the trade of the night for Algo lovers.
Especially when price hits a river bed which here is actually a Vacuum Zone in this instance - which is the best Target on the chart.
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #504
  • Jun 12, 2020 11:23am Jun 12, 2020 11:23am
Just as an example of the precision they operate... Two failed demo trades (can't appreciate more the advice to establish right habits on a demo account first):
* first - jumped too fast, was impatient b/c no trades for me yesterday (NY session didn't give any setups);
* second - got distracted and didn't move target to the mid-line after setting TP at the opening of the trade.

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Just to bump the thread
  • #505
  • Jun 12, 2020 11:59am Jun 12, 2020 11:59am
Quoting phi1ipp
Just as an example of the precision they operate... Two failed demo trades (can't appreciate more the advice to establish right habits on a demo account first): * first - jumped too fast, was impatient b/c no trades for me yesterday (NY session didn't give any setups); * second - got distracted and didn't move target to the mid-line after setting TP at the opening of the trade. {image} Just to bump the thread
Hello phi1ipp,
those were two great TMA trades, but you always waited too long to close the trades. The first buy trade would have been about 10 pips, the second about 20 pips. Would have been enough for the day with "real" money.
Regards Chris
  • #506
  • Jun 12, 2020 12:45pm Jun 12, 2020 12:45pm
Quoting phi1ipp
Just as an example of the precision they operate... Two failed demo trades (can't appreciate more the advice to establish right habits on a demo account first): * first - jumped too fast, was impatient b/c no trades for me yesterday (NY session didn't give any setups); * second - got distracted and didn't move target to the mid-line after setting TP at the opening of the trade. {image} Just to bump the thread
Would you have more room for error (being a normal human) if you traded with the trend by selling at the top when price rejects at the bb middle instead of buying at the bottom and hoping to close at the top. It's hard to make money taking counter trend trades when things are dropping like a brick. And the trend doesn't reverse until price has gone to the other side of the bb middle and comes back and bounces off of it once. After that you could start trading long...although most of the time it just means the pair is done moving for the day and the big money has left the office. (I realize that might not be tma trading, but it makes a lot more money going with the trend and when you lose at least you're watching the charts when reversal might be happening.)
  • #507
  • Jun 12, 2020 1:32pm Jun 12, 2020 1:32pm
Quoting phi1ipp
Just as an example of the precision they operate... Two failed demo trades (can't appreciate more the advice to establish right habits on a demo account first): * first - jumped too fast, was impatient b/c no trades for me yesterday (NY session didn't give any setups); * second - got distracted and didn't move target to the mid-line after setting TP at the opening of the trade. {image} Just to bump the thread
The TMA is only half the truth. A look to the left on the chart shows more. The first entry is exactly at the London Open Price, the second entry is on a non interlocking 15 min candle in the Tokyo session and also roughly the low of the previous day. A pullback could probably be there. For the trades in "trend" direction I have only the center line of the TMA indicator, which is completely random depending on the setting. But of course it would have worked too.
  • #508
  • Jun 12, 2020 2:03pm Jun 12, 2020 2:03pm
Quoting Chris.GER
{quote} Hello phi1ipp, those were two great TMA trades, but you always waited too long to close the trades. The first buy trade would have been about 10 pips, the second about 20 pips. Would have been enough for the day with "real" money. Regards Chris
Hi Chris,

Thank you for the feedback and hints. I'm still doing baby steps, trying to figure my approach. It does take screen time to figure the way/system. Good to be in the shadow of giants who can share some wisdom and words of support.

Looking forward to reading some good stuff from y'all.

Cheers and have a nice weekend!
  • #509
  • Jun 12, 2020 2:47pm Jun 12, 2020 2:47pm
Quoting RickM
Hi Danger-Mouse Here is my 3 cents worth and how I see the market - Price expansion is restricted because the market needs to maintain pools of orders very close to current current order flow. So the act of keeping price with an consolidation area tends to entice traders to bring their orders / stops closer to current price. If the Price expansion was not controlled, the spread size would quadruple and become so large, traders would not enter the market. Therefore SOMETHING? limits this expansion to keep spreads sizes small, keep pools of orders...
Could that 'something' be the fact that the institutions and market makers can see where all the limit orders are parked? It's collusion of the big $ to do it because it signals all of them where the reversals will be and they all jump in on it. They can see everything which gives them the edge on the retailers. And the market makers have to go where the trades are to make their money so they just get out of the way on the big moves and guide us along the journey during the slow times. Ultimately supply and demand works for me, but not alone. Sentiment has to be included and watching several time frames so you know what's in the way of the trade (speed bumps where the trend is held up temporarily) is important. Knowing where the edges are, along with seeing what causes the price action at the edges (sentiment), how to act on that information, and then actually taking a trade is how you move with the big money. Just ride their coat tails.

Imagine having an algo that sees where all the limit orders are, sees where all the speed bumps are, and never sleeps. sign me up!
  • #510
  • Edited 9:16pm Jun 12, 2020 8:52pm | Edited 9:16pm
Quoting CashBox
{quote} Could that 'something' be the fact that the institutions and market makers can see where all the limit orders are parked? It's collusion of the big $ to do it because it signals all of them where the reversals will be and they all jump in on it. They can see everything which gives them the edge on the retailers. And the market makers have to go where the trades are to make their money so they just get out of the way on the big moves and guide us along the journey during the slow times. Ultimately supply and demand works for me, but not alone....
Hi CashBox

That "something" must exist in some form and be controlled by one main entity because without some form of primary price limitation, price would drift out into the void (Thin liquidity could become no liquidity) and become untradeable to everyone. That "something" uses thin liquidity to move price in a direction of its choice but it can't let it breakout of the order flow boundary if there isn't sufficient orders out there in the abyss for them to operate. There just may be almost no orders 150 pips higher up for many pairs, so spreads would become huge making trading unprofitable for even them.
What I see is price is normally contained 70% of time within a order flow price channel where the Auction process actually occurs. On those 30% of times price moves outside this channel, price will hit the boundary wall and get pulled back into the price channel to feed the wolfs.
We can see this price expansion action occurring in 3 out of 4 types of grinds when price moves out to the boundary, hits its limit before being pulled back towards order flow. This means only one thing.
If there is expansion which gets limited, if we get price moving to the extreme edge of a chart before price is pulled back to the middle of the chart,

THERE MUST BE A MID POINT OF OPDER FLOW WHICH IS LOCATION GROUND ZERO

The holly grail of profitable trading for me is the knowledge of where Ground Zero actually is.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #511
  • Edited 9:56pm Jun 12, 2020 9:33pm | Edited 9:56pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi CashBox That "something" must exist in some form and be controlled by one main entity because without some form of primary price limitation, price would drift out into the void (Thin liquidity could become no liquidity) and become untradeable to everyone. That "something" uses thin liquidity to move price in a direction of its choice but it can't let it breakout of the order flow boundary if there isn't sufficient orders out there in the abyss for them to operate. There just may be almost no orders 150 pips higher up for many pairs, so...
Good stuff, RickM. I enjoy reading your posts. There is something to be said for being able to 'see' the market and how it moves and also understanding the timing of when price returns to ground zero/value. It makes trading more fun and more profitable.

Everyone sees things differently and trades differently. Attached is how I see the GJ every day. There's important info on every chart. It took me 12 years to become consistently profitable, but you can become consistently profitable faster than that if you grasp what RickM is doing. I do basically the same thing...just differently. He's a lot better because he doesn't need much on his charts.
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  • #512
  • Edited 10:39pm Jun 12, 2020 10:09pm | Edited 10:39pm
Quoting CashBox
{quote} Good stuff, RickM. I enjoy reading your posts. There is something to be said for being able to 'see' the market and how it moves and also understanding the timing of when price returns to ground zero/value. It makes trading more fun and more profitable. Everyone sees things differently and trades differently. Attached is how I see the GJ every day. There's important info on every chart. It took me 12 years to become consistently profitable, but you can become consistently profitable faster than that if you grasp what RickM is doing. I do...
He He love your chart Cash box

Here is all I need to know, but I do add a few other bits and pieces.
Price of expansion gets limited from Ground Zero.
Most strong moves start from Ground Zero.

Cheers Rick
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #513
  • Jun 13, 2020 11:46am Jun 13, 2020 11:46am
Hi,
my SIMPLE theory is it alot about AB = CD. But the manipulation is hiding them. the mm cann't have all the sellers becoming buyer at the same time or vicer versur.
so yesterday you had an ab=cd to the downside on the hour. fractal freak was off by 10 points (video)- pretty good - he didn't look at the d point. tma was spot on.
on the 15 minutes - you had ab=cd to the upside. 15 minute tma.
on the 1 minute you also had ab= cd to the downside - NY stopped the bounce up only 10 points.
Going back to friday 05 you had D COMPLETION from the 18th march - AB.
They make it difficult to read the b to c leg because they can't have all traders executing trades in the same place.
I like fractal freak - nothing personal.
  • #514
  • Jun 13, 2020 7:54pm Jun 13, 2020 7:54pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} He He love your chart Cash box Here is all I need to know, but I do add a few other bits and pieces. Price of expansion gets limited from Ground Zero. Most strong moves start from Ground Zero. Cheers Rick {image}
The very candle that I look for.. just on the higher time frame.
Great post.
  • #515
  • Jun 15, 2020 1:30pm Jun 15, 2020 1:30pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} The very candle that I look for.. just on the higher time frame. Great post.
Hello Andy, sometimes I lose myself in the 1 min chart, and then I don't see the whole picture. With which chart frames do you work regards to TMA trading and not to be caught by the algos.
Regards Chris
  • #516
  • Jun 15, 2020 3:54pm Jun 15, 2020 3:54pm
Quoting Chris.GER
{quote} Hello Andy, sometimes I lose myself in the 1 min chart, and then I don't see the whole picture. With which chart frames do you work regards to TMA trading and not to be caught by the algos. Regards Chris
Chris

I use Georges target/herd mentality, and I prefer my own entry method based on H1..price for me must be at or had crossed the targets, I then wait for a particular setup. It’s due to family reasons that I cannot be sat at the PC for prime time M1 TMA trading.
George trades whenever he is at the PC and when a setup occurs, but then of course, he has made TMA trading his own.

Andy
  • #517
  • Jun 17, 2020 7:20am Jun 17, 2020 7:20am
This thread has gone a bit quiet so I thought I'd throw something into the mix.

I have been interested in gaps for some years but learnt the hard way not to try to best guess when price would close them. But recently I have been noticing another nuance in that price is definitely attracted to the 'white space' between the gaps. The white space is obviously an absence of gaps and is a mixture of many interlocking bars (high liquidity) and long bars moving quickly through areas of low liquidity leaving a gap behind them.

These charts are too busy for actual trading but I thought it would be an interesting exercise to mark up some white spaces and see what happened next. These are both 1hr charts on the S&P, the first I marked up on 9/6 and the second is from 12/6. I initially thought that the white space was being revisited purely to reach the gap/s at the other side but price turns around too often within the white space for it to be quite as clear cut as that, it seems to be area of high liquidity that is the target.

I now have a separate chart on the side to keep me up to date with all the nearby white space areas (the lines are mid bar and non interlocking gaps).
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  • #518
  • Jun 17, 2020 11:05pm Jun 17, 2020 11:05pm
Quoting hepsibah
This thread has gone a bit quiet so I thought I'd throw something into the mix. I have been interested in gaps for some years but learnt the hard way not to try to best guess when price would close them. But recently I have been noticing another nuance in that price is definitely attracted to the 'white space' between the gaps. The white space is obviously an absence of gaps and is a mixture of many interlocking bars (high liquidity) and long bars moving quickly through areas of low liquidity leaving a gap behind them. These charts are too busy...
Hi Hepsibah

Interesting charts you posted on liquidity zones. It’s always good to see how traders find their high liquidity zones on their charts to help them trade.
Most times for me however, it’s just a wasted exercise because I am only interested where price is now, not where it is going.

My trading setup consists of a screen with three pairs set to 1/3 of a screen each. That’s M1 as my main work chart and then for each pair, I have two hidden charts behind. The next chart is my H1 targets and my third chart contains raw APB price bars set only to M1.
I want as little information on my charts as I need because I need to pounce when an opportunity arises without junk on my charts.
Those three charts are GJ / EU / AU which often run in sync when a grind starts and offer the best grind identification pairs in my opinion.
I am looking to trade Acute Liquidity Runs when grinds starts, especially when I see them run close to the order flow boundary.
So looking at Monday night which was great, I sold against any new spike when it made a new high or low near an order flow boundary within a grind. I have no fear to an addition trades at an increased trade size when it runs into draw down because I trust my boundary price limits and rarely get caught.
I took about 126 trades in a three hour session which tend to be 50% AU and 25% split between EU and GJ.
It’s total mechanical without consideration to any other issue except major news.
I always aim for 1% of equity per session but picked up 5% that night.

Cheers Rick
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #519
  • Jun 18, 2020 12:21am Jun 18, 2020 12:21am
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi Hepsibah Interesting charts you posted on liquidity zones. It’s always good to see how traders find their high liquidity zones on their charts to help them trade. Most times for me however, it’s just a wasted exercise because I am only interested where price is now, not where it is going. My trading setup consists of a screen with three pairs set to 1/3 of a screen each. That’s M1 as my main work chart and then for each pair, I have two hidden charts behind. The next chart is my H1 targets and my third chart contains raw APB price bars...
Interesting insight Rick, thanks.

I only trade indices these days, currency pairs seem too slow in comparison now that I have discovered them. I also trade the 1min chart and until recently used MP's of various tf's but currently I am using only price channels. But I do like the comfort of understanding the bigger picture and (more recently) knowing where the large areas of white space are so I also have a 1hr chart with the gap lines. My personal goal is 2%/day and I find that easily achievable with small scalps but I do have the luxury of being able to trade full time.
  • #520
  • Jun 18, 2020 9:28am Jun 18, 2020 9:28am
Hi Guys

I get many questions asking me how to handle a Grind when it just doesn't stop at targets but keeps moving higher or lower. On the Target theory, we hope price hits a target to the pip then reverses but as most traders know, many times it just keeps on grinding.

Here is one of my low risk methods I use when I see a large aggressive grind approaching a Target - especially a grind after a recent news event like tonight.
Here I choose to use APB price bars and just wait for a strong cross over a Target then wait for a thrust up candle that opens above the low of the primary low candle and then take a trade.

Tonight I bagged a very quick 19 pips with a Buy Trade and then closed my position.
This is my secondary method I use but if the Grind is hard, its the only safe way to trade.

PS. You can see it would have prevented you entering those two higher targets in blue which would have been losing trades.
PS.2 You may also guess on a strong grind, I may choose to run with a move till the candle changes colour. Hey, why not take some easy pips on a hard move.

Cheers Rick
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
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