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What does it mean to trade with the trend - Define trend?

  • #21
  • Jun 10, 2020 8:13am Jun 10, 2020 8:13am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} why do you think S / R levels are reliable in terms of trend development. you are a smart egg.
I have no interest in debating with you here, about S/ R levels or Trend definitions.
Open a new thread and take it there. Show us the depth of your knowledge.
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #22
  • Jun 10, 2020 8:32am Jun 10, 2020 8:32am
Quoting tiborf71
{quote} very often there is no S / R, so there is nothing to rely on let alone that the reliability of these levels is in doubt.
If you can’t identify them, do nothing until you can see them ...
Market is not random but unpredictable
  • #23
  • Jun 10, 2020 8:59am Jun 10, 2020 8:59am
Maybe this can help:
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 Trend Detector1.ex4   3 KB | 566 downloads
  • #24
  • Jun 10, 2020 9:09am Jun 10, 2020 9:09am
Quoting derekw
Maybe this can help: {file}
Your eyes are the best indicator......................
It never gets easier, you just get better
  • #25
  • Jun 10, 2020 5:19pm Jun 10, 2020 5:19pm
Quoting GEfx
{quote} If you decide to trade the 1D chart, analyze it for structure and trend (keep in mind that bankers trade in 100 round lot trades and have the book to withstand pullbacks on the 1H chart). I trade the 4H chart, and enter and exit trades on the 10M or 15M charts. I use the 4H because it is inside the analysis and thinking of the bankers... I look at the day chart once or twice a week, and I never think about the week or month. I ignore week and month charts. I'll stop here before I go further down my rabbit hole.
Always interesting to hear how others trade. So when analyzing the structure and trend of the 4H chart, how far back are you willing to go to gauge the overall trend? I can be looking at an uptrending 4H chart starting from last week that's actually part of a downtrend when looking at a month of data. I can see your point in putting aside the monthly and weekly time frames with this type of trading, those big moves are not all relevant when trading intraday.

Quoting dkrock
A trend is a range on a larger time frame. If you learn to trade ranges, then when your high time frame ranges, it will appear as a trend on a lower time frame.
A trend is a range on a larger time frame? What? A clear bullish trend and structure of the daily chart over 1 month of time will have its 4H chart alternating between small down-trends, or pullbacks, and uptrend continuations. If there happens to be a point of consolidation where price ranges on the daily with no clear structure, then yes the 4H will show alternating up and down trends. But this is only relevant when you consider the amount of data you're analyzing, or in context, as others have pointed out. I think that went over your head.

Quoting dkrock
To wait, and wait, and wait for a magic trend to appear on a larger time frame is a waste of time. Whatever you were going to do on that time frame can be just as easily done on a lower one that has more frequency of trades than the one you are staring at. Trade the ranges by using the lower time frames as confirmation and signals for greater precision.
No, whatever you do on a larger time frame can't be done on the lower ones. There are different ways to trend short-term and long-term, smaller time frames and larger ones. That makes no sense and the different strategies used between scalpers, day traders, and swing traders shows just that.

Quoting dkrock
Oh no, sounds like work, lol. If it were easy, anyone could do it... the primary problem is there is no such thing as support/resistance lines, so you will have to learn how to trade ranges or don't even bother trying to make money.
So in your mind there's no such thing as support and resistance, or an area of high supply or demand where orders have consistently been filled in the past, and where institutions look to enter the market at the best price possible? But you are somehow trading ranges that are built on the idea of and go hand in hand with S&R? I don't think you're getting much trading done with a system that you can't define properly.

Quoting dkrock
I understand you want to do it all in the laziest manner possible, but that is not profitable. Good Luck.
The fact that I started this thread should be enough to prove I'm not looking for the "laziest manner possible". I'm looking objectivity over subjectivity when it comes to analyzing trends, as integrating something into your trading plan that's bound to be interpreted differently from one day or week to the next is counter productive, as has been your response. Good day.
  • #26
  • Jun 10, 2020 5:46pm Jun 10, 2020 5:46pm
Here you go:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/eo4bxzdd/

Couple it with volume and fundamentals
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #27
  • Jun 10, 2020 7:58pm Jun 10, 2020 7:58pm
the basic assumption of trend following is an object in motion stays in motion until unless acted upon by an unbalanced force (newton's first law of motion). suppose the candle goes up today. trend following will assume that it will go up the following day. of course, we will never know when that "unbalanced force" will come in and destroy the momentum. that's where risk management comes in. it's never just about one thing. otherwise, everyone in the market would be freakin rich already. but there's a reason why 75% of traders fail -- most people think it can be summarized to just one thing. in reality, it's not. it's really all about managed risk.
  • #28
  • Edited 8:47pm Jun 10, 2020 8:00pm | Edited 8:47pm
Quoting SFundamental
Here you go: https://www.tradingview.com/x/eo4bxzdd/ Couple it with volume and fundamentals
Thank you for that, but even on just the weekly chart, considering how much past data you're willing to consider while watching the market unfold in real time you could've just as easily ended up with something like this:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2.png Size: 70 KB


I'm curious if someone "trading the trend" would either sit out the market in a period like January-June 2016, look for shorts and get stopped out a higher % of the time, or buy into a shorter term bull trend that's forming in the shadow of a strong downtrend? If you consider the daily chart as well, you get trends with those trends and many conflicting with one another.

Quoting GEfx
{quote} To the extent it matters, I focus on the most recent trend within the current structure. Structure only changes when there is a change in it. I define structure much differently from the average FF participant, I think. Structure is based on fundamental forces, and high-level technical analysis. Structure changes when the Federal Reserve or a nations central bank says it's changed, for example. If you don't understand the fundamental structure of the market you are trading, then you can't understand trend. In reality, if you understand structure,...
Yeah I'm starting to believe that the best way to trade the trend is to focus more on the fundamentals and sentiment of a pair and then use structure of the market to find a good entry. Though I'm curious how you define structure and trend. Structure for me would be whether a pair is making higher highs/lows, the opposite, or consolidating. A break of structure would be when that very short-term structure on whatever time frame you use is broken, which happens quite often and sometimes not in the direction you'd expect from a general technical analysis view of previous trends. If the structure breaks in accordance with fundamentals and supply/demand on its side, then it's an entry. Cheers.
  • #29
  • Edited Jun 11, 2020 4:01am Jun 10, 2020 8:27pm | Edited Jun 11, 2020 4:01am
Quoting krecci
{quote} Thank you for that, but even on just the weekly chart, considering how much past data you're willing to consider while watching the market unfold in real time you could've just as easily ended up with something like this: {image} I'm curious if someone "trading the trend" would either sit out the market in a period like January-June 2016, look for shorts and get stopped out a higher % of the time, or buy into a shorter term bull trend that's forming in the shadow of a strong downtrend? If you consider the daily chart as well, you get trends...
You asked for an example I gave it
Markets are fractal - here is an hourly example- and there are different types of patterns
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ntWH3YVr/
And here is a 5 minute chart today
https://www.tradingview.com/x/W1OMfq73/

As I said you have to use volume & fundamentals (and price action)
Trading is not just one thing.

If you are going to look at fundamentals - Jarratt Davis has some free stuff on you tube that is worth looking at
Agree with other posters - this should be in the rookie section
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #30
  • Jun 11, 2020 4:21pm Jun 11, 2020 4:21pm
Quoting SFundamental
Here you go: https://www.tradingview.com/x/eo4bxzdd/ Couple it with volume and fundamentals
Nice trade

https://www.tradingview.com/x/fnd0cZxg/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/R2UyAL6N/
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #31
  • Jun 12, 2020 10:45am Jun 12, 2020 10:45am
Two renko bars (at least) in the same direction = Trend
Three renko bars ( at least) alternating = range
Very simple, no headache.
  • #32
  • Jun 12, 2020 10:55am Jun 12, 2020 10:55am
I think the way this indicator determines what is a trend and what is a range is probably the definition that most would agree with.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ptl 2.07 alerts.mq4   12 KB | 300 downloads
  • #33
  • Jun 12, 2020 11:09am Jun 12, 2020 11:09am
Quoting SFundamental
{quote} Nice trade https://www.tradingview.com/x/fnd0cZxg/ https://www.tradingview.com/x/R2UyAL6N/
Update:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/zXNjdiFf/
Look ahead, Macro=Direction, Levels & Structure = Entry
  • #34
  • Jun 12, 2020 2:40pm Jun 12, 2020 2:40pm
Quoting metta87
Two renko bars (at least) in the same direction = Trend Three renko bars ( at least) alternating = range Very simple, no headache.
could you please share any chart to know your trading further as i am trading with candlestick patterns and i would like to know your trading style. if you can share your trading chart that can help me to understand your trading system.
  • #35
  • Jul 31, 2020 6:28am Jul 31, 2020 6:28am
Trend strategy is the easiest strategy as in this you can buy an asset when the price goes up and you can sell an asset when the price goes down. Trend strategy will help you to set your entry and exit position in a profitable manner.
  • #36
  • Jul 31, 2020 9:00am Jul 31, 2020 9:00am
Because "TRENDS" Doesnt exist just a move from a point to the next one.. You chose the amplitude between the points you are looking for and the accuracy on your entry its whats define the R:R

Yes.. a trend doesnt exist, just unbalance in price and the subsequent move in a single direction; the moment you understand this its the moment you will start to understand the core of trading and you will become consistently profitable


TRENDS DONT EXIST
  • #37
  • Jul 31, 2020 10:55pm Jul 31, 2020 10:55pm
The range is better than the trend anyway.
  • #38
  • Jul 31, 2020 11:18pm Jul 31, 2020 11:18pm
As previous poster said, the market is fractal, numerous trends within a trend.

But one has to differentiate trend and trend.

A trend can be very subjective on other time frame when it’s a volatile trend, for example on a daily time frame making new lows with huge negative excursions while still making new highs that are higher than the lows, still an up trend.

A trend can be on the other hand very sure when it has no volatility such as the eurusd, gold and sp500 lately. This is the safest conditions because on lower time frame you got a chance for entry at low price/low risk for a big reward.

The thing is to differentiate the 2 type of trends no matter if you are a swing or a trend trader, volatile trend vs no volatile trend, till it breaks.

“The trend is your friend till it bends”.

Discretion is definitely the edge.
LDFX Trading Ltd
  • #39
  • Jul 31, 2020 11:44pm Jul 31, 2020 11:44pm
"Trend" is an ill-defined concept used by newbie traders who can't accept the fact market movements are mostly random. The very fact that you can
find different "trends" on the same currency pair by simply changing timeframes tells you trends aren't real - they're optical illusions.

"Market is not random but unpredictable" - Baloney. It's UNPREDICTABLE because it's RANDOM. You clearly don't understand what is meant by randomness. Take a math class.

  • #40
  • Jul 31, 2020 11:58pm Jul 31, 2020 11:58pm
Quoting gravitist
"Trend" is an ill-defined concept used by newbie traders who can't accept the fact market movements are mostly random. The very fact that you can find different "trends" on the same currency pair by simply changing timeframes tells you trends aren't real - they're optical illusions. "Market is not random but unpredictable" - Baloney. It's UNPREDICTABLE because it's RANDOM. You clearly don't understand what is meant by randomness. Take a math class.

Enligten us, because even the Nobel price economists, that not only have taken math class but are teaching it, only have theories about the market being random, but I guess it is because they haven’t read your posts.

Please elaborate.
LDFX Trading Ltd
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