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The end of the US stock market is nearing

  • #1,401
  • Jun 11, 2020 12:26am Jun 11, 2020 12:26am
the DOW and S&P are at interesting levels. the bears are starting to show their hand. Critical time now
  • #1,402
  • Edited 9:16am Jun 11, 2020 12:51am | Edited 9:16am
Quoting Abe16
{quote} The US in no way resembles the SU now or in the past nor will it in the future. Your comparisons and contrasts are nonsensical.
hahaha... https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-blasts-radical-left-dems-in-seattle-as-he-says-domestic-terrorists-take-hold-of-city

https://twitter.com/KarluskaP/status/1269427925239189504
  • #1,403
  • Edited 1:20am Jun 11, 2020 1:05am | Edited 1:20am
Quoting shrips
the DOW and S&P are at interesting levels. the bears are starting to show their hand. Critical time now
the critical times are definitely approaching... at this point the markets will also depend on some political factors as well... my next bet would be on the high probability that the result of the incoming presidential elections will not be peacefully accepted by about a half of the voters regardless of the actual winner... the opposite (losing) side will simply ignore the elections result to revolt against... my negative expectations for the DXY in medium to longer-term, with must reach levels located way below current ones, also support such a probability...
  • #1,404
  • Edited 3:38am Jun 11, 2020 2:12am | Edited 3:38am
in my opinion, the most likely case scenario will be as the following:
1. Trump will win the elections.
2. Liberal crowds will disagree by not accepting and ignoring such an outcome.
3. Liberal media will accuse Trump of faking the votes in his favor also pronouncing him as a tyrant and non-legit dictator.
4. Left radical mobs will start rioting all over the country also being supported by some local liberals in power of some states and cities (governors, mayors and such).
5. Trump will issue executive orders to suppress civil unrest with the use of force including National Guards and US Army. Some of the top generals will refuse to follow his orders and will join the rioters.
6. Trump voters, supporters and other conservatives will start organizing armed militias to resist rioting liberal mobsters crowds on local levels at first. Jointly, over some time, they will be able to put that unrest down in some but not in all the States.
7. California, and some other liberal States, will declare their willingness and intentions to secede from the Union.
8. They will declare martial law also asking for help from foreign globalist regimes of UK, Canada and some others in EU to withstand "dictator" Trump. A full size civil war will break out.
9. Left radical volunteers and mercenaries from all over the world will start arriving to the US soil to join armed resistance against the "tyrant".
10. Some foreign nations, such as China and Russia, which also suffer from international globalism while not being interested in its victory and the demolition of the US, also having a great concern over the US nuclear arsenal, are likely to support American conservatives. They will send some troops and/or "volunteers" to help the legit president-elect to reinstate law and order and to take the country under his full control.

This is how and why the US stock market and the buck are likely to take a huge dive simultaneously.
  • #1,405
  • Jun 11, 2020 2:52am Jun 11, 2020 2:52am
have a question.. don't know how it works but maybe somebody could explain/correct this:

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Maybe nothing wrong with printing money? Inflation now is only for stocks - regular people don't feel inflation. Pension funds still purchase stocks - they have a conservative long-term policies to buy stocks for any price.

so FED (and ECB and anybody who have "printers") inject money, buy stocks for low price, manipulate stock price so it goes up (because there is demand). Then at some point FED will start to sell stocks gradually... so we will have choppy but mostly down tended market. And FED will burn some usd because they wont need them anymore. In that way stocks markets get stabilized and there won't be inflation for regular citizens.

Can it be so?
  • #1,406
  • Jun 11, 2020 2:59am Jun 11, 2020 2:59am
Quoting joyny
have a question.. don't know how it works but maybe somebody could explain/correct this: {image} Maybe nothing wrong with printing money? Inflation now is only for stocks - regular people don't feel inflation. Pension funds still purchase stocks - they have a conservative long-term policies to buy stocks for any price. so FED (and ECB and anybody who have "printers") inject money, buy stocks for low price, manipulate stock price so it goes up (because there is demand). Then at some point FED will start to sell stocks gradually... so we will have...
this one looks better...
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  • #1,407
  • Jun 11, 2020 4:16am Jun 11, 2020 4:16am
Quoting Igrok
in my opinion, the most likely case scenario will be as the following: 1. Trump will win the elections. 2. Liberal crowds will disagree by not accepting and ignoring such an outcome. 3. Liberal media will accuse Trump of faking the votes in his favor also pronouncing him as a tyrant and non-legit dictator. 4. Left radical mobs will start rioting all over the country also being supported by some local liberals in power of some states and cities (governors, mayors and such). 5. Trump will issue executive orders to suppress civil unrest with the use...
Trump most likely can be re-elected. Many tired from COVID, riots, China etc... hardliner is welcomed. See Trump twitter follower growth last 6 months (https://www.socialbakers.com/statistics/twitter/profiles/detail/25073877-realdonaldtrump). If re-elected - your scenario is very likely.

"The United States"... they are still "states" and with Trump in charge not so "united"... so some could try to quit. Is this somehow forbidden by the constitution?
  • #1,408
  • Jun 11, 2020 4:55am Jun 11, 2020 4:55am
Quoting joyny
{quote} Trump most likely can be re-elected. Many tired from COVID, riots, China etc... hardliner is welcomed. See Trump twitter follower growth last 6 months (https://www.socialbakers.com/statistics/twitter/profiles/detail/25073877-realdonaldtrump). If re-elected - your scenario is very likely. "The United States"... they are still "states" and with Trump in charge not so "united"... so some could try to quit. Is this somehow forbidden by the constitution?
The United States Constitution (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Constitution) does not address secession of states and the issue was a topic of debate from after the American Revolutionary War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Revolutionary_War) up until the Civil War, when the Supreme Court ruled, in Texas v. White (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._White), that states cannot unilaterally secede.


Discussion about the right of U.S. states to secede from the union began shortly after the American Revolutionary War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Revolutionary_War). The United States Constitution does not address secession. Each of the colonies originated by separate grants from the British Crown (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Crown) and had evolved relatively distinct political and cultural institutions prior to national independence. Craig S. Lerner has written that the Constitution's Supremacy Clause (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supremacy_Clause) weighs against a right of secession, but that the Republican Guarantee Clause (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Four_of_the_United_States_Constitution) can be interpreted to indicate that the federal government has no right to keep a state from leaving as long as it maintains a republican form of government.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_secession_movements#cite_note-clerner-1)
The question remained open in the decades before the Civil War. In 1825, Alexis de Tocqueville (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexis_de_Tocqueville) observed, "If today one of these same states wanted to withdraw its name from the contract, it would be quite difficult to prove that it could not do so. To combat it, the federal government would have no evident support in either force or right." However, Joseph Story (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Story) wrote in 1830 in Commentaries on the Constitution (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commentaries_on_the_Constitution_of_the_United_States) that the document foreclosed the right of secession.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_secession_movements#cite_note-clerner-1) On the eve of the Civil War, President Abraham Lincoln (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Lincoln) argued that states were not sovereign before the Constitution but instead they were created by it.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_secession_movements#cite_note-clerner-1)
Current Supreme Court (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Supreme_Court) precedent, in Texas v. White (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_v._White), holds that the states cannot secede from the union by an act of the state.[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_secession_movements#cite_note-2) More recently, Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonin_Scalia) stated, "If there was any constitutional issue resolved by the Civil War, it is that there is no right to secede."[3] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_secession_movements#cite_note-3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Texas_secession_movements#Secession_in_the_United_States
  • #1,409
  • Edited 3:27pm Jun 11, 2020 3:15pm | Edited 3:27pm
Quoting Igrok
in my opinion, the most likely case scenario will be as the following: 1. Trump will win the elections. 2. Liberal crowds will disagree by not accepting and ignoring such an outcome. 3. Liberal media will accuse Trump of faking the votes in his favor also pronouncing him as a tyrant and non-legit dictator. 4. Left radical mobs will start rioting all over the country also being supported by some local liberals in power of some states and cities (governors, mayors and such). 5. Trump will issue executive orders to suppress civil unrest with the use...
it seems they do read all my comments in here as CNN discussed the very same issue with Biden today right after I posted this prediction of mine.... looks like they are getting ready for the very same scenario (or even already started working on it) that I have just described from the top of my head... now it's practically guaranteed that there is no way that liberals will accept Trump's victory... I also guess he is likely to get assassinated eventually... https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/11/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-military-white-house/index.html
  • #1,410
  • Jun 11, 2020 10:03pm Jun 11, 2020 10:03pm
Quoting Igrok
in my opinion, the most likely case scenario will be as the following: 1. Trump will win the elections. 2. Liberal crowds will disagree by not accepting and ignoring such an outcome. 3. Liberal media will accuse Trump of faking the votes in his favor also pronouncing him as a tyrant and non-legit dictator. 4. Left radical mobs will start rioting all over the country also being supported by some local liberals in power of some states and cities (governors, mayors and such).
5. Trump will ignore them as he ignored - so far - Seattle CHAZ (which is already starving BTW) , and the rest of the country will crack on whereas WA, NY, etc economies will go down the chute if riots continue. Rational ppl will exit these states. CA already feels the exodus https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/22/catastrophic-plunge-in-jobs-labor-force-in-los-angeles-san-francisco-silicon-valley-smacks-into-housing-bubbles/
As for 3 - the same accusations were hurled right after 2016 elections and Obama himself had to intervene saying 2016 elections were proper. I think a few freshly printed $$$ will buy Obama and maybe even HRC voice this time as well
  • #1,411
  • Edited Jun 12, 2020 1:29am Jun 11, 2020 11:55pm | Edited Jun 12, 2020 1:29am
Quoting p3yd5
{quote} 5. Trump will ignore them as he ignored - so far - Seattle CHAZ (which is already starving BTW) , and the rest of the country will crack on whereas WA, NY, etc economies will go down the chute if riots continue. Rational ppl will exit these states. CA already feels the exodus https://wolfstreet.com/2020/05/22/catastrophic-plunge-in-jobs-labor-force-in-los-angeles-san-francisco-silicon-valley-smacks-into-housing-bubbles/ As for 3 - the same accusations were hurled right after 2016 elections and Obama himself had to intervene saying...
I guess there is a huge difference between now and then. Back then, four years ago, he was underestimated by the libs, in my opinion. Being considered as an unknown threat that nobody knew what he is actually capable of or what exactly he is up to. Most likely being viewed just as a "fluke" and a minor hiccup in otherwise smoothly going globalization process. Nobody could have suggested during the previous elections that he really says what he thinks and does what he says. Not a typical president at all. After his second term, reasonable ppl may not be even willing to return back on the liberal tracks in order to be ruled by yet another succession of faceless clowns - the puppets of international financial "mafia", whether they're dems or reps. Also desperate times require desperate measures. Given the inevitable financial crisis of biblical proportions along with the pandemic, the US need someone who can handle the problems the right way during hard times. The country and the World can no longer afford such "nobodies" as Bush Jr. and Obama were or Biden is. That would be a direct way to disaster under current circumstance, when it became clear that the inheritance of "Reaganomics" has already been spent and wasted and when there're "no more bullets left" to continue its celebration.
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  • #1,412
  • Jun 12, 2020 4:58am Jun 12, 2020 4:58am
Quoting Igrok
inevitable financial crisis of biblical proportions along with the pandemic, the US need someone who can handle the problems the right way during hard times. The country and the World can no longer afford such "nobodies" as Bush Jr. and Obama were or Biden is. That would be a direct way to disaster under current circumstance, when it became clear that the inheritance of "Reaganomics" has already been spent and wasted and when there're "no more bullets left" to continue its celebration.
As this crisis is manufactured, I'd hazard a guess that the solution does exist as well, just it's not currently known to masses or even Trump.
One of the solutions which came to my mind is bankrupting the US local govts (from towns to states), or at least passing the laws which regulate this process. Similar to Reconstruction era after last US Civil War, when disgraced local elite is ousted from the power and real assets are picked for the pennies by industrial capital.
Helps budget deficits as well
  • #1,413
  • Jun 12, 2020 5:11am Jun 12, 2020 5:11am
Quoting p3yd5
{quote} As this crisis is manufactured, I'd hazard a guess that the solution does exist as well, just it's not currently known to masses or even Trump. One of the solutions which came to my mind is bankrupting the US local govts (from towns to states), or at least passing the laws which regulate this process. Similar to Reconstruction era after last US Civil War, when disgraced local elite is ousted from the power and real assets are picked for the pennies by industrial capital. Helps budget deficits as well
theoretically it's possible, though I doubt it... I'm a strong proponent of the Hanlon's razor concept which states "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity"... in my opinion there are too much of chaotic factors, uncontrollable events, unpredictable consequences and conflicting interests to reasonably suspect some sort of premeditated global conspiracy... though I totally agree with the idea that any crisis always presents some great opportunities for the most prepared ones...
  • #1,414
  • Edited 9:44am Jun 12, 2020 7:17am | Edited 9:44am
This is the most ridiculous and unrealistic market forecast I have ever read!
Any large-scale economic crisis is always a serious reason for another review of the results of socio-economic processes in the world and individual countries, and at the same time to rethink the theoretical templates and exaggerated assessments of the possibilities of the existing management system. The current global economic crisis is no exception. Do you think that modern IT companies (https://www.websitedesignhub.sg/) will take the smallest losses or not?
  • #1,415
  • Edited 11:31am Jun 12, 2020 9:34am | Edited 11:31am
Quoting janicer.marr
This is the most ridiculous and unrealistic market forecast I have ever read! Any large-scale economic crisis is always a serious reason for another review of the results of socio-economic processes in the world and individual countries, and at the same time to rethink the theoretical templates and exaggerated assessments of the possibilities of the existing management system. The current global economic crisis is no exception. Do you think that modern IT companies will take the smallest losses or not?
so what?... how am I supposed to know how many forecasts you have already read over the course of your reading career?... to me it's just apparent that your writing one is quite short since your very first post on this forum looks quite impudent... you started this conversation on the wrong foot... comprendo?...
  • #1,416
  • Jun 13, 2020 1:46am Jun 13, 2020 1:46am
Quoting janicer.marr
This is the most ridiculous and unrealistic market forecast I have ever read! ..... The current global economic crisis is no exception. ...Do you think that modern IT companies (https://www.websitedesignhub.sg/) will take the smallest losses or not?
Is this even a legitimate post? it doesn't even logically string together, let alone provide substantiated reasoning.
The embedded [ IT companies] is simply a link to an advertisement
<a href="https://www.websitedesignhub.sg/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">IT companies</a>

??
I prefer the intelligent people who post on this thread.
Old Dog Kiwi
  • #1,417
  • Jun 13, 2020 2:11am Jun 13, 2020 2:11am
Quoting aquavox
{quote} Is this even a legitimate post? it doesn't even logically string together, let alone provide substantiated reasoning. The embedded [ IT companies] is simply a link to an advertisement <a href="https://www.websitedesignhub.sg/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">IT companies</a> ?? I prefer the intelligent people who post on this thread.
I wasn't even curious enough to click on that link because of the post's apparent stupidity... sorry that you did... I should've deleted it immediately...
  • #1,418
  • Jun 14, 2020 2:09am Jun 14, 2020 2:09am
The Looming Bank Collapse (https://medium.com/the-atlantic/the-looming-bank-collapse-bb89cd78b95b) The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.
  • #1,419
  • Jun 14, 2020 3:35am Jun 14, 2020 3:35am
Quoting eFFx168
The Looming Bank Collapse (https://medium.com/the-atlantic/the-looming-bank-collapse-bb89cd78b95b) The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.
as it now appears, American and World economies both will soon go down the drain no matter what, cause one depends on another... in order to be able to fix currents problems, financial capital has to step back where it belongs to and to decrease their share in the economy from above 50% (as of today) down to no more than 5-10%, which is rightfully theirs... otherwise it's not gonna work and all the attempts to revive the economy without some sort of major restructuring will be doomed ... current consumption based economic model has ran out of space to expand to... there are no more resources left to support it...
  • #1,420
  • Edited 1:27am Jun 16, 2020 12:12am | Edited 1:27am
it now seems to me that political risks for the markets are growing fast... throughout human history there wasn't s even a single example when angry rebellious mobs of any kind, flooding the streets of any state, had been capable of making some positive changes for the country's economy regardless of its sociopolitical formation or a particular cause of such a civil unrest at the time ... what's going on in the US right now (also spreading around the Western World rather fast), makes me to think of a "Cultural Revolution" in making... in my opinion, the closest example would be the one that had taken place in China in 1966-76, though with some minor differences but quite similar outcomes at the end... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution

I think, that by the time of the next US presidential elections, it's not even going to make any difference who will actually win the race... the economy is doomed in any case and we better get prepared for it before it's too late... on the technical side 2008-9 levels on the major indexes are already a must... same thing can be said about the USD where DXY will inevitably reach 79.00 level and quite likely even lower than that...we're currently looking into months, and perhaps even years, of increased market volatility and great uncertainty... it's a haven for the speculators and a hell for the investors...
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