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EURUSD only

  • #110,461
  • Jun 10, 2020 4:31am Jun 10, 2020 4:31am
Just my 2c everything risk looks super toppy about about to fall - EURUSD yes, but this includes other risk currencies and stock indexes (sorry ata).

I'm not going to open any major positions before FOMC, but I think we are very close to an inflection point, and EURUSD will fall a lot. I've been waiting to short EU around these levels for like a week, and I will keep opening shorts above 1.135 as long as it loops like a local top has been reached, as a general trading strategy, targeting much lower prices.

tl;dr we are close to a major risk-off move IMO and technical analysis supports the possibility of a large drop.

IMO hopes of EU stimulus finally kick-starting some serious growth are over-optimistic, eu has many deep, structural problems, which will only get worse with time. There is only so long this little dance can go on for.

daily
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  • #110,462
  • Jun 10, 2020 4:39am Jun 10, 2020 4:39am
Current H1 candle might close as a bearish engulfing candle.. let's see.. 20 more minutes to be sure..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #110,463
  • Jun 10, 2020 4:53am Jun 10, 2020 4:53am
Nothing has changed. This is the same price range i've been mentioning since last thursday. For both bulls and bears, the crucial price is 1.1342-1.1348. For bulls NO 4HR closes below this. For bears no 4hrs closes above 1.1348.

For sells within 1.1348, just be patience. Let a 1hr closes below at least 1.1324 after the FOMC. Best entry would be the pull back after it touched 1.1280 and enter any price above 1.13.
Remember, market moved hurriedly between 1.1280 - 1.342, i.e it will take a big bearish candle to go down.

For sells above 1.14, if the market was trading above 1.1348, and crosses above 1.14, Let it touch 1.1480 and sell it but one thing we must keep in mind. Get in and get out. Don not hold it. A daily close above 1.14 means the ultimate bearishness will start from above 1.1590 which is 50% of FIBO on MONTHLY as a whole.

Trade Safe and Stay safe.
  • #110,464
  • Jun 10, 2020 4:57am Jun 10, 2020 4:57am
Quoting Starcraftmaz
Just my 2c everything risk looks super toppy about about to fall - EURUSD yes, but this includes other risk currencies and stock indexes (sorry ata). I'm not going to open any major positions before FOMC, but I think we are very close to an inflection point, and EURUSD will fall a lot. I've been waiting to short EU around these levels for like a week, and I will keep opening shorts above 1.135 as long as it loops like a local top has been reached, as a general trading strategy, targeting much lower prices. tl;dr we are close to a major risk-off...
My 2c:
FED interest rates currently very low.
China "trade-war" might escalate.
Central banks of China and Russia are buying gold since some time --> they want to be more independent from the US$
USA also has some mayor issues like trade deficit, consum orientation
they have mayor problems because of corona, unemployment rate, racial conflicts, student debt loans, low oil price and the fracking industry
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #110,465
  • Jun 10, 2020 5:35am Jun 10, 2020 5:35am
Daily
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  • #110,466
  • Jun 10, 2020 6:00am Jun 10, 2020 6:00am
Based on H4 I think 1.1369 will resist until FOMC... If some of you sold here it couldn't be seen as a crazy thing to do.. If so, good luck then

*I personally still prefer to wait for wave 5 to fully play out.. Eyeballing 1.1400/1.1432 area..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #110,467
  • Jun 10, 2020 6:21am Jun 10, 2020 6:21am
Good afternoon. I'm very new in fx and I want to trade only Eu pair for now. Hope I'm welcomed?
  • #110,468
  • Jun 10, 2020 6:43am Jun 10, 2020 6:43am
Nervous PA... Spike to 1400 incoming?
Pension fund Return This Month: 2.2%
  • #110,469
  • Jun 10, 2020 7:08am Jun 10, 2020 7:08am
Please consider taking a look at my analysis. DXY starts at 0:03, EUR/USD starts at 03:34.In preparation for CPI and FOMC, I took a little bit more time today. I upload weekly analysis every Sunday and daily analysis from TUE to FRI.


Inserted Video
  • #110,470
  • Jun 10, 2020 7:26am Jun 10, 2020 7:26am
Quoting Favor368
Good afternoon. I'm very new in fx and I want to trade only Eu pair for now. Hope I'm welcomed?
Sure.. if you have read the rules on page 1 welcome and enjoy the thread..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #110,471
  • Jun 10, 2020 7:31am Jun 10, 2020 7:31am
Ive taken shorts, got stopped out, twice, now I'm in for the third time (small small lots).

H1 - MACD shows bearish
H4 - wave count (for what its worth) shows a sell at wave 3 and 7

However I will not be surprised if we go and touch 15000 again - reason: the flag just got made wider (Yellow Flag) and as usual it is well aligned with the next R.
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Trade it as it lies
  • #110,472
  • Edited 8:16am Jun 10, 2020 7:35am | Edited 8:16am
Will go long if price goes above 1.137 with SL 1.1359 TP Open

14:37
here we go
Long at 1.137

14:45
moved SL to 1.13539

14:53
if the price does not go above 1.1375 in a few minutes I will be closing
otherwise I will be putting SL at 1.1362

15:01
moved SL into profit
1.13758

15:14
SL got triggered
net profit of 3 Pips
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #110,473
  • Jun 10, 2020 7:46am Jun 10, 2020 7:46am
Quoting hdlSA
Ive taken shorts, got stopped out, twice, now I'm in for the third time (small small lots). H1 - MACD shows bearish H4 - wave count (for what its worth) shows a sell at wave 3 and 7 However I will not be surprised if we go and touch 15000 again - reason: the flag just got made wider (Yellow Flag) and as usual it is well aligned with the next R. {image} {image}

another reason why I think it can go up

"pregnant lady" is my own lingo for a flag that's not a flag.
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Trade it as it lies
  • #110,474
  • Jun 10, 2020 8:02am Jun 10, 2020 8:02am
Quoting hdlSA
{quote} another reason why I think it can go up "pregnant lady" is my own lingo for a flag that's not a flag. {image}
Cup and handle
  • #110,475
  • Jun 10, 2020 8:41am Jun 10, 2020 8:41am
Quoting hdlSA
{quote} another reason why I think it can go up "pregnant lady" is my own lingo for a flag that's not a flag. {image}
.....the moment I saw what you were probably seeing on chart..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #110,476
  • Jun 10, 2020 9:00am Jun 10, 2020 9:00am
Quoting investing101
{quote} Cup and handle

That handle not always so obvious though
Trade it as it lies
  • #110,477
  • Jun 10, 2020 9:00am Jun 10, 2020 9:00am
Bears aching to get a 4hr close below 1.1338.

As soon as market moved below 1.1280, sell any price above 1.13.
1.1306, 1.1317, 1.1326, 1.1332, 1.1336.
  • #110,478
  • Jun 10, 2020 9:09am Jun 10, 2020 9:09am
Let's Recap the Monthly Chart

  1. Bulls could make it all the way up to big channel upper edge: 1.1366
  2. There is still no monthly candle close above 1.1463 since 2018 November!
  3. Can or will bulls achieve at least a touch to 1.1463 today?
  4. Notice the huge doji from March and that price is really close to its upper range!
  5. A monthly candle close above channel would confirm a bullish breakout BUT it is still just the 10th of June. If price pierces above this level today how will bulls manage to hold price there for 20 more days? Is there even enough market stimulation? This makes me suspicious that this bull power actually comes from markets having some sort of "false sense of comfort".. Anyways.. just thinking out loud..

Long story short: Despite the fact that my gut feeling tells me to be prepared for a sell-off I am still on sidelines and keep watching how price behaves around 1.1363/73! No rush!

Stay Green

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #110,479
  • Jun 10, 2020 9:12am Jun 10, 2020 9:12am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Let's Recap the Monthly Chart Bulls could make it all the way up to big channel upper edge: 1.1366 There is still no monthly candle close above 1.1463 since 2018 November! Can or will bulls achieve at least a touch to 1.1463 today? Notice the huge doji from March and that price is really close to its upper range! A monthly candle close above channel would confirm a bullish breakout BUT it is still just the 10th of June. If price pierces above this level today how will bulls manage to hold price there for 20 more days? Is there even enough market...
why not see your entry anymore brother?
  • #110,480
  • Jun 10, 2020 9:14am Jun 10, 2020 9:14am
Quoting Kimjoun
{quote} why not see your entry anymore brother?
Not now buddy.. first I want to test my theory for the next 5 to 6 months..

Stay Green
Focus only on what truly matters!
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