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NZD/USD

  • #13,781
  • May 13, 2020 10:45pm May 13, 2020 10:45pm
#NZDUSD / H4
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  • #13,782
  • May 21, 2020 3:56am May 21, 2020 3:56am
Anybody looking at NZ?

USA printing like mad

NZ brought virus under control, may do far less printing relative to USD

If I'm right, first target is $.75 - will we see parity in next year?

As long as NZ doesn't pull their rates negative, could materialize. PM herself calling NZ a safe haven.

If they are a producing economy with a closed globe, Jack up the prices and let the cash flow in.
  • #13,783
  • May 21, 2020 4:07am May 21, 2020 4:07am
Quoting Scotty B
Anybody looking at NZ? USA printing like mad NZ brought virus under control, may do far less printing relative to USD If I'm right, first target is $.75 - will we see parity in next year? As long as NZ doesn't pull their rates negative, could materialize. PM herself calling NZ a safe haven. If they are a producing economy with a closed globe, Jack up the prices and let the cash flow in.

I'm currently short on NZDUSD
  • #13,784
  • May 21, 2020 11:05am May 21, 2020 11:05am
Short
  • #13,785
  • May 24, 2020 12:01pm May 24, 2020 12:01pm
Watching levels of interest o. 6106/0.6173 /0.6204 as signal for good opportunity long if any, playing extremely low and selected at times only though. Take care, fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #13,786
  • Jun 2, 2020 1:15pm Jun 2, 2020 1:15pm
Quoting Scotty B
Anybody looking at NZ? USA printing like mad NZ brought virus under control, may do far less printing relative to USD If I'm right, first target is $.75 - will we see parity in next year? As long as NZ doesn't pull their rates negative, could materialize. PM herself calling NZ a safe haven. If they are a producing economy with a closed globe, Jack up the prices and let the cash flow in.

Steady progress seen in the long NZDUSD position. Unsurprisingly, NZD and AUD have been the biggest movers against the USD in recent weeks.

We learned this week that New Zealand's efforts have truly paid off as the country hasn't had a new Covid case in a dozen days: https://thehill.com/policy/internati...-week-after-11

As protests break out from coast to coast in the US, the containment efforts of Covid-19 have been seriously compromised after the large gathering of protest groups following the murder of George Floyd in Minneapolis. As the summer in the US presses on and the unrest settles, the virus situation will reemerge as the dominant issue.

The US will likely face further lock-downs in the fall and a deepened financial crisis as a result. The hoped-for economic uptick during the summer months in the US is under threat as commerce districts shutdown due to looting or to comply with curfew orders.

All the while NZ will be open for business.

Target still set at $.75 - with Parity and beyond a very real possibility as a diluted US Dollar flows into the NZD.
  • #13,787
  • Jun 4, 2020 9:06pm Jun 4, 2020 9:06pm
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} Steady progress seen in the long NZDUSD position. Unsurprisingly, NZD and AUD have been the biggest movers against the USD in recent weeks. We learned this week that New Zealand's efforts have truly paid off as the country hasn't had a new Covid case in a dozen days: https://thehill.com/policy/internati...-week-after-11 As protests break out from coast to coast in the US, the containment efforts of Covid-19 have been seriously compromised after the large gathering...
Good thesis that appears to be playing out. I would have thought these small isolated economies would have been punished more but seems like the money is flowing in.
  • #13,788
  • Jun 5, 2020 8:18am Jun 5, 2020 8:18am
I've been trading the NZDUSD exclusively for a while now.

This week has been lovely with around 30 per cent gained just by staying long.
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #13,789
  • Jun 5, 2020 8:28am Jun 5, 2020 8:28am
Good job! The NZDUSD is a pair that respects technicals.

KP

Quoting doji
I've been trading the NZDUSD exclusively for a while now. This week has been lovely with around 30 per cent gained just by staying long.
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #13,790
  • Jun 5, 2020 1:15pm Jun 5, 2020 1:15pm
Quoting doji
I've been trading the NZDUSD exclusively for a while now. This week has been lovely with around 30 per cent gained just by staying long.
What a ride so far, great work holding on!

I know a lot of folks have their attention stuck on AUDUSD, but look at the price action there - that pair is running into a wall of liquidity at .7. If you look at the NZDUSD chart you can see no such liquidity (short resistance) bending the trend sideways and no bearish pin pars being printed thus far, and virtually no retracing, very small pullbacks.

On the heat map side of things, NZD has displaced AUD as the biggest mover against USD.

The US is now talking of a 2nd stimulus (more inflation), even in the midst of an economy that is foolishly trying to reopen very likely prematurely.

I'm very curios to see if we will get some retracement here, say back to .64, but no signs of the river drying up yet.
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  • #13,791
  • Jun 5, 2020 1:28pm Jun 5, 2020 1:28pm
Here is some weekend reading material: https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/s...045102265.html

Great article that explains some of the drivers of this trade, much of them being the stance of NZ as a safe haven, that is the really critical piece. As soon as that gets wonky or comes into question, that will signal the end of trend.
  • #13,792
  • Jun 9, 2020 10:44pm Jun 9, 2020 10:44pm
Quoting Scotty B
Here is some weekend reading material: https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/s...045102265.html Great article that explains some of the drivers of this trade, much of them being the stance of NZ as a safe haven, that is the really critical piece. As soon as that gets wonky or comes into question, that will signal the end of trend.
I don't think safe haven is long term. There's a distinct conflict of interest in the article, and the dump in the USD (and stocking up on NZD) is more likely than not, a temp move by leveraged money to make a quick buck. This is my second week now looking for any signs of profit taking and unloads to get short. Because when it does, this thing is dropping like a stone.
  • #13,793
  • Jun 10, 2020 1:06am Jun 10, 2020 1:06am
Quoting Scotty B
{quote} Steady progress seen in the long NZDUSD position. Unsurprisingly, NZD and AUD have been the biggest movers against the USD in recent weeks. We learned this week that New Zealand's efforts have truly paid off as the country hasn't had a new Covid case in a dozen days: https://thehill.com/policy/internati...-week-after-11 As protests break out from coast to coast in the US, the containment efforts of Covid-19 have been seriously compromised after the large gathering...
NZD and AUD mother of all bull markets for both. Its looking real favorable.
  • #13,794
  • Jun 10, 2020 3:25am Jun 10, 2020 3:25am
Covid-19 is rapidly spreading in states where lockdowns have eased. Arizona and southern states are in trouble and we are talking summertime spread. The current disease pressure is the seed for the cooler months ahead.

In my opinion, the US will be forced to follow the NZ model, the US will limp along until the inevitable lockdown number two. Think of all the printing that has yet to happen, not to mention the severe and sustained downturn in GDP.

The US stock market is overflowing, even bankrupt companies being flooded with free cash - see Hertz.

As stocks become saturated, market participants will seek other opportunities and NZD is a natural choice. NZD PM saying come on down.
  • #13,795
  • Jun 10, 2020 11:55am Jun 10, 2020 11:55am
Quoting Scotty B
Covid-19 is rapidly spreading in states where lockdowns have eased. Arizona and southern states are in trouble and we are talking summertime spread. The current disease pressure is the seed for the cooler months ahead. In my opinion, the US will be forced to follow the NZ model, the US will limp along until the inevitable lockdown number two. Think of all the printing that has yet to happen, not to mention the severe and sustained downturn in GDP. The US stock market is overflowing, even bankrupt companies being flooded with free cash - see Hertz....
Interesting world view.

My view is that COVID is such a temp factor, long term, we should be looking to see the delta between pre and post COVID and assume going "back to normal", and catching all the correction moves (risk pre determined, and you can pre determine reward as well). The collapse in economies weren't caused by weak fundamentals, so I'm avoiding "trading the COVID" altogether.

I still haven't been able to find evidence that NZD will collapse so far though... So your longs should be safe until I start stacking shorts against you
  • #13,796
  • Jun 10, 2020 1:26pm Jun 10, 2020 1:26pm
Quoting renatusmusic
{quote} Interesting world view. My view is that COVID is such a temp factor, long term, we should be looking to see the delta between pre and post COVID and assume going "back to normal", and catching all the correction moves (risk pre determined, and you can pre determine reward as well). The collapse in economies weren't caused by weak fundamentals, so I'm avoiding "trading the COVID" altogether. I still haven't been able to find evidence that NZD will collapse so far though... So your longs should be safe until I start stacking shorts against...
The sad thing is that you should be right, again, NZ is the model, we know what is possible, we could have had Covid beat by now. Contain the economic effects to a quarter or two. Instead we're dragging things out and the even though the US is "opening back up" it is doing so at barely half capacity. There are a TON of people not going out and doing much of anything. Real production isn't happening and at the same time we are drastically increasing the money supply.

Even if we all have a vaccine tomorrow, the world has fundamentally changed. The virus creates 2nd-order effects and that is really what we're trading here.

What is weak will eventually break. We are only getting started on the covid ripple effects. Next I believe we'll see real estate get hit. If the unemployment continues to drag out and if Biden get's in this fall, we may see some enormous changes that create yet more opportunities. For instance - I believe the chances are good that we'll see student loan reform in the states in this decade, what happens when student loans are forgiven? I'd argue that retail bounces back and Amazon loses some market share. New malls get built, new companies started, very exciting stuff.

Anyways, we NEVER know for certain what will happen, so use trailing stops and buy the pullbacks.
  • #13,797
  • Jun 10, 2020 11:52pm Jun 10, 2020 11:52pm
Okay, the onslaught has started. Short, short, short.
  • #13,798
  • Jun 11, 2020 12:03am Jun 11, 2020 12:03am
Willing to sell to muppets at anything higher than 655
  • #13,799
  • Jun 11, 2020 1:14am Jun 11, 2020 1:14am
Day Trading | M15 Timeframe

As price broke below and bounced off the upward trend line, the bears appear to have stepped in to push price lower.

A build-up appears to be forming between 0.64830 and 0.65000.

If market sentiment has turned bearish for good, I am expecting a break below the build-up and a continuation of the bearish momentum.
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Trade What You See; Think in Probabilities;
  • #13,800
  • Jun 11, 2020 7:17am Jun 11, 2020 7:17am
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
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