Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2507 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #50,121
  • Jun 9, 2020 12:40pm Jun 9, 2020 12:40pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} So you have been searching for Eleven Years. Is the end of the road in sight yet ?
Impressive breakout trading Mr T, you have come far young Jedi
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #50,122
  • Jun 9, 2020 2:36pm Jun 9, 2020 2:36pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks for your kind help. Well trading more markets than one for the beginning you would say makes it less complicate? :-) 1 Trade per 1 Day is my current plan. If I aim for 1% per day on 5 Pips a stop loss no matter if locked in at -15 with a hedge or taken out by a hard stop loss would mean I have risked 3R in the hope of making 1R. 3 days losing in a row = -45 Pips To get back to break even here would require the following 9 days to make 5 Pips without one losing day. I don’t know anything more simple than doing 1 trade per day at a...

Simplest approach of the world:

H4 04:00 bar. Wait for the first breakout. Trade the second breakout and aim for 20 pips or calculate the TP in someway studying ADR

In the screen i marked all the 04:00 h4 bars tradable, GBPUSD May.

You can trade the second breakout or just the return back into the body or both. Simplest like that
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  • #50,123
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:21pm Jun 9, 2020 4:21pm
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} Simplest approach of the world: H4 04:00 bar. Wait for the first breakout. Trade the second breakout and aim for 20 pips or calculate the TP in someway studying ADR In the screen i marked all the 04:00 h4 bars tradable, GBPUSD May. You can trade the second breakout or just the return back into the body or both. Simplest like that {image}
Hi. I have to read a bit more about breakouts in general. Before I came to this topic here, from what i have learned, trading a „breakout“ always focused around the break of a certain range. But more like going over a couple of price bars at least forming that range. So a consolidation area some maybe would call this, not sure.

Now since i am reading through Billy’s topic, from what I understand a lot of the traders here seem to be only focused on trading the break of a single price bar at a specific time, like BillyBar 08:00, EJ 00:00 and so on. Now you come up with 04:00, so may I ask why 04:00 exactly?

i did understand GU 08:15 from what Claudia said, because of the London open, a lot of action coming to the markets and much going on until lunch time so there might be enough volatility to make or lose a few pips because at least price has a higher chance to actually move a little.

Also I am not sure how to make the entry exactly if you say (trade the second breakout). Is it the same i would do if trading the BillyBar 08:15 on M15, so placing a buy and sell order at both ends of the setup bar and then wait until the next bar will trigger it and then cancel the other order?

Then again making pips sounds great but because I can’t control what I might get, what I can control is setting a stop, so my risk is clear right from the go before placing an order. As i already don’t know what a good right/way this would be with the 08:15 M15 setup for GU, I don’t know about H4 the same.

Thanks for your kind help. Shame I did not find this place here a couple of years ago, so much learned already the last few days
  • #50,124
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:33pm Jun 9, 2020 4:33pm
A/U 04-00.4 hour break.
It closes as UK opens.
This bar is better than the 00-00 4 hr bar.
This is a very good bar to trade.
This bar is full of little bars.
Quite sedate too, good for manual trading.
I am getting tired now,
If a person thinks, acts negative. They will have no chance.
I can say right now, tomorrow I will probably have a Fail, BUT I bet I will fix it. FAITH IN STATS, ADR.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,125
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:06pm Jun 9, 2020 6:06pm
Quoting billytt
A/U 04-00.4 hour break. It closes as UK opens. This bar is better than the 00-00 4 hr bar. This is a very good bar to trade. This bar is full of little bars. Quite sedate too, good for manual trading. I am getting tired now, If a person thinks, acts negative. They will have no chance. I can say right now, tomorrow I will probably have a Fail, BUT I bet I will fix it. FAITH IN STATS, ADR.
Thanks Billy.

Some stats for this bar (4am-8am AU) from Feb to the end of May 2020:

It wins more often than it loses (10 pip target). Well over 70% win rate. This becomes even higher if aiming for 5 pips.

In the past 4 months, it has failed on both breaks on only 5 separate occasions. For example if the break South fails, the break North has also failed on the same day only 5 times in 4 months. Every other time it has failed on the 1st break (13 separate occasions), it has brought home at least 10 pips on the opposite break.

On 3 separate occasions if the 1st break has failed, there has been no trigger on the opposite side due to price ranging all day.

So in summary, the 1st break has failed to get 10 pips on 21 separate occasions in the past 4 months. Out of those instances, 13 times we could have fixed the 1st fail by trading the opposite break. Only 8 times in 4 months we would have lost no matter what.
  • #50,126
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:25pm Jun 9, 2020 6:25pm
@Billy, the following sentences, do they play any role for you before placing an order for your entry setup and what the actual setup bar looks e.g. body of the setup candle (small,big) or wicks / no wicks?

Or is it really just relied on the pure stats you gained over the past that you did find out a tendency of a min. amount of pips could be expected and a huge trust / experience to make back possible losses again with the next trade and therefor would just „blindly“ enter on the setup bar like 08:15 GU every morning not looking at anything much else.

From Wikipedia

Quote
On any particular time frame, whether it's a yearly chart or a 1-minute chart, the price action trader will almost without exception first check to see whether the market is trending up or down or whether it's confined to a trading range
  • #50,127
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:26pm Jun 9, 2020 6:26pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Thanks Billy. Some stats for this bar (4am-8am AU) from Feb to the end of May 2020: It wins more often than it loses (10 pip target). Well over 70% win rate. This becomes even higher if aiming for 5 pips. In the past 4 months, it has failed on both breaks on only 5 separate occasions. For example if the break South fails, the break North has also failed on the same day only 5 times in 4 months. Every other time it has failed on the 1st break (13 separate occasions), it has brought home at least 10 pips on the opposite break. On 3 separate...
If we were playing the 1st break only, we would have won 43 times and lost 21 times. Although every month was a winner in the end, March and April were both much better than Feb and May for some reason.
  • #50,128
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:43pm Jun 9, 2020 6:43pm
AU 4 hour bar closes as London opens...that helps a lot due to Oz time differences..!!!! 4 different time zones down here...!!!
Cheers.
Onwards and upwards...
  • #50,129
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:43pm Jun 9, 2020 6:43pm
Quoting ia1979
{quote} If we were playing the 1st break only, we would have won 43 times and lost 21 times. Although every month was a winner in the end, March and April were both much better than Feb and May for some reason.
Good information. Thanks for sharing, as soon as I exactly understand how to make my own stats here I will do the same

For the ones you found out failed/lost what stop strategy is this based on, having trades hedge and never came back to break even again or fixed stop in pips, or stop at opposite end of the triggered bar?
  • #50,130
  • Jun 9, 2020 7:21pm Jun 9, 2020 7:21pm
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} Simplest approach of the world: H4 04:00 bar. Wait for the first breakout. Trade the second breakout and aim for 20 pips or calculate the TP in someway studying ADR In the screen i marked all the 04:00 h4 bars tradable, GBPUSD May. You can trade the second breakout or just the return back into the body or both. Simplest like that {image}
Your GU H4 04:00 bars (US Open/Close based) are also generally smaller than Billy's GU 00:00 bars (UK Open based).

When you say the second breakout, I presume you mean the trade on the other side of the bar, as if the first breakout was a fake.
  • #50,131
  • Jun 9, 2020 11:04pm Jun 9, 2020 11:04pm
Hi all.
Cable 00-00 4 hour bar.
High broke but I have left it.
At 04-55 last time I looked, e/u hasn't done anything and I am leaving that.
I will almost certainly trade later once we have movement.
Trade Well All.
t 05-04
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,132
  • Jun 9, 2020 11:47pm Jun 9, 2020 11:47pm
Quoting billytt
Hi all. Cable 00-00 4 hour bar. High broke but I have left it. At 04-55 last time I looked, e/u hasn't done anything and I am leaving that. I will almost certainly trade later once we have movement. Trade Well All. t 05-04
I’m in with a tp below yesterday’s high
cheers
  • #50,133
  • Jun 10, 2020 12:15am Jun 10, 2020 12:15am
Billy
We know you trade without a stop*
What's the maximum number of trades you do on Cable in a day? The average number?
You trade without thinking
And finally do you sleep? Or more seriously are you always up at 4am to trade the midnight 4 hour bar?
Thanks
*if lddd asks you about stops again, just ban him!
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #50,134
  • Jun 10, 2020 12:24am Jun 10, 2020 12:24am
Quoting Nikl
{quote} I’m in with a tp below yesterday’s high cheers
Closed for 7pips(+0.5%) see you at London open!
  • #50,135
  • Jun 10, 2020 12:41am Jun 10, 2020 12:41am
Well, Cable & E/U both broke 00-00 4 hr bar , and both trades would of got me my quota,
But as I posted, I am not touching them yet.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,136
  • Jun 10, 2020 12:43am Jun 10, 2020 12:43am
ooh $ weakness.......ahead of FOMC???
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #50,137
  • Jun 10, 2020 12:47am Jun 10, 2020 12:47am
Quoting mrcreosote
Billy We know you trade without a stop* What's the maximum number of trades you do on Cable in a day? The average number? You trade without thinking And finally do you sleep? Or more seriously are you always up at 4am to trade the midnight 4 hour bar? Thanks *if lddd asks you about stops again, just ban him!
I am awake quite a lot and I can cat nap.
Cable Trades per day.
IF I were concentrating on only the 08-00 15 break. if it breaks and wins, I trade once.
if it breaks and fails, either 2 or 3, that's when I get motoring. because I will probably chase the daily range. SO 4 maybe 5 trades..
Just lately i have chased the daily range for fun so maybe another 4,
But it depends on that 08-00 bar mainly.
But lately because of Brexit, virus etc taking money has been a lot easier as the ranges have been good.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,138
  • Jun 10, 2020 12:48am Jun 10, 2020 12:48am
Quoting billytt
Well, Cable & E/U both broke 00-00 4 hr bar , and both trades would of got me my quota, But as I posted, I am not touching them yet.
Morning Billy
Do you normally trade the midnight to 4am bar or just when you feel like it? why are you not touching it yet?
Thanks!
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #50,139
  • Jun 10, 2020 12:50am Jun 10, 2020 12:50am
Quoting mrcreosote
Billy We know you trade without a stop* What's the maximum number of trades you do on Cable in a day? The average number? You trade without thinking And finally do you sleep? Or more seriously are you always up at 4am to trade the midnight 4 hour bar? Thanks *if lddd asks you about stops again, just ban him!


Its heading that way.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,140
  • Jun 10, 2020 12:58am Jun 10, 2020 12:58am
see how gold is currently supported by that 1714 line? I drew that line back in May
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used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
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