Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2504 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #50,061
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:03am Jun 9, 2020 4:03am
Quoting billytt
{quote} 137 ???? ooooooo not sure if that is allowed in here, NICE ONE BUD, take no prisoners.
Hi Billy, thanks, it was a bit scary, double beta blockers to get to 12700
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
  • #50,062
  • Edited 4:54am Jun 9, 2020 4:29am | Edited 4:54am
Quoting dimash0609
{quote} no one here have crystal ball. I just show you my manual backtesting for last 2 months.. result is good.. and also i did backtesting from April 2019.. maximum losing strike 3 days in a row.. with that stat now i need to apply a good MM to maximize my profit... when you said " OR losing even more by compounding if these further trades gets lost too" yes thats possible, but stats show it safe... plus i only risk 1% of my capital per trade
Ok so what stop loss did you use for your trades to make + 5 Pips to get there or not used any stop loss and crossed fingers instead?...

If I am trying to make +1% on a single trade this would equal +5 Pips.

There are about 20 days in 30 month, so 20 Trades I could make 100 Pips if win rate = 100%.

This would book in +20% by the end of a month or 20k USD according to my account size.

Now losing half of the trades i get a 50% win rate I would make -20% +20% so break even = $0 or more like negative because of commissions.

This would assume a stop loss of 5 pips (Max 1% risk per trade too) and maintain a 50% win rate.

Now check your win/loss rate applying a 5 Pips stop loss for your last 20 trades...
  • #50,063
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:48am Jun 9, 2020 4:48am
Hi All
For those who are interested another potential filter for the M15 08-00 Billy Bar: Williams %R with a 32 look back period. Above -50 Long Bias only below -50 short Bias only.
I'm using 32 as there's 32 15 minute bars from 0-00 . This is only a concept at the moment which I'm going to look into.
Will keep you informed.
Cheers
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  • #50,064
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:56am Jun 9, 2020 4:56am
Billy bar break MORE THAN covered any losses from yesterday on the break South this morning.

AU 4am-8am break successful too.

Iddd, you keep going back to a 5 pip stop on GU. That will not work.
  • #50,065
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:58am Jun 9, 2020 4:58am
Quoting birdland
i tried the AU 0-0 H4 breakout from yesterday, because the first one down failed. good for +11 pips. {image}
The AU breakout is the breakout of the 4am to 8am bar UK time. It was successful yesterday and today.
  • #50,066
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:59am Jun 9, 2020 4:59am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Ok so what stop loss did you use for your trades to make + 5 Pips to get there or not used any stop loss and crossed fingers instead?... If I am trying to make +1% on a single trade this would equal +5 Pips. There are about 20 days in 30 month, so 20 Trades I could make 100 Pips if win rate = 100%. This would book in +20% by the end of a month or 20k USD according to my account size. Now losing half of the trades i get a 50% win rate I would make -20% +20% so break even = $0 or more like negative because of commissions. This would assume...
Hi Idd,

like i said before this is my first month trading billy bar, and i'm still learning..

1. My SL is opposite Hi/Lo of 08.00, i dont use hard stop, but to counter it and put it in Limbo.. i will try to fix it using holo or S/R
2. When yesterday trade is negative, i try to increase today lot size to recover the limbo, like today..
3. Billy said trust the stat.. so i manually backtesting it, and you can see it on the table above...
PIVOT Return This Year: na
  • #50,067
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:59am Jun 9, 2020 4:59am
Quoting ia1979
Billy bar break MORE THAN covered any losses from yesterday on the break South this morning. AU 4am-8am break successful too. Iddd, you keep going back to a 5 pip stop on GU. That will not work.
100% true
PIVOT Return This Year: na
  • #50,068
  • Edited 5:20am Jun 9, 2020 5:08am | Edited 5:20am
Quoting ia1979
Billy bar break MORE THAN covered any losses from yesterday on the break South this morning. AU 4am-8am break successful too. Iddd, you keep going back to a 5 pip stop on GU. That will not work.
Yes, so I am here to find out what works then by counting in my goals and risk too.

As this seems to be the topic where real traders make real money I would be happy to find some real calculations how targets could be achieved for what risk over how many trades on average on how many instruments and stuff like that.

Like you say it doesn’t matter to me if making +5 pips or not if it simply can’t comply with any reasonable risk or not reaching any goals on the order hand.

See, I am here to learn how to trade to make money I can actually see on my bank roll by the end of a month not because I like watching charts all day long . Yes it’s fun too but that’s not all. At some day we all die and then I don’t want to think about how many hours I wasted for watching price ticking up or down on a screen if this couldn’t pay for anything.
  • #50,069
  • Jun 9, 2020 5:47am Jun 9, 2020 5:47am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes, so I am here to find out what works then by counting in my goals and risk too. As this seems to be the topic where real traders make real money I would be happy to find some real calculations how targets could be achieved for what risk over how many trades on average on how many instruments and stuff like that. Like you say it doesn’t matter to me if making +5 pips or not if it simply can’t comply with any reasonable risk or not reaching any goals on the order hand. See, I am here to learn how to trade to make money I can actually see...

I think you are overcomplicating it.

Open a demo account. Trade for 3 months like that with the amount of capital you want to use live:

Billy bar, trade the breakout and aim for +6-7 pips. If you hit TP, well, look for next day

If you fail you can do 2 things:
take SL and aim for 10-15 pips trading H4 bars

Or when you go -10/15 just open an opposite trade so you have now -15 loss blocked in a limbo and take the third trade like a stand-alone trade aiming for +15 pips for go to BE. Pretty the same thing of the first way.

Don't focus only on GU i think it works also on other pairs, at the end what really matters are the pips.

if after 3 months you are in positive, well done, you can trade it live.

Open a diary / thread where you post all the things you do and that's all
  • #50,070
  • Jun 9, 2020 5:54am Jun 9, 2020 5:54am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yes, so I am here to find out what works then by counting in my goals and risk too. As this seems to be the topic where real traders make real money I would be happy to find some real calculations how targets could be achieved for what risk over how many trades on average on how many instruments and stuff like that. Like you say it doesn’t matter to me if making +5 pips or not if it simply can’t comply with any reasonable risk or not reaching any goals on the order hand. See, I am here to learn how to trade to make money I can actually see...
As Bojack34, Lem and probably Billy have all said, if you are looking for an easier method with a high strike rate (80% plus), with potentially 1:1 risk reward, then the AU 4am-8am break is perhaps better suited to your needs. Go for 10 pips on the break with a 10 pip SL. If it fails, come back tomorrow. If you want to keep playing with GU with a 5 pip SL, there's nothing more I can add that hasn't been said already. You lost on GU yesterday, but look at how much you could have made on the break today. Good luck with your trading.
  • #50,071
  • Jun 9, 2020 5:57am Jun 9, 2020 5:57am
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} I think you are overcomplicating it. Open a demo account. Trade for 3 months like that with the amount of capital you want to use live: Billy bar, trade the breakout and aim for +6-7 pips. If you hit TP, well, look for next day If you fail you can do 2 things: take SL and aim for 10-15 pips trading H4 bars Or when you go -10/15 just open an opposite trade so you have now -15 loss blocked in a limbo and take the third trade like a stand-alone trade aiming for +15 pips for go to BE. Pretty the same thing of the first way. Don't focus only...
Well said Mr Green. The Billy Bar works on most instruments/pairs. Look at the Dax. Look at GJ. I already said yesterday that risk can be diversified. If Iddd had used GU and GJ yesterday for the Billy Bar trade, he would have ended up on breakeven, instead of a loss. Today would have been a win on both.
  • #50,072
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:10am Jun 9, 2020 6:10am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Well said Mr Green. The Billy Bar works on most instruments/pairs. Look at the Dax. Look at GJ. I already said yesterday that risk can be diversified. If Iddd had used GU and GJ yesterday for the Billy Bar trade, he would have ended up on breakeven, instead of a loss. Today would have been a win on both.

I sometimes just scan all the pairs for find the ideal bar. Sometimes GU it's choppy or it has too big bar
  • #50,073
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:13am Jun 9, 2020 6:13am
Don't forgot to do some analysis, sometimes setup is near sup/dem zones
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  • #50,074
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:28am Jun 9, 2020 6:28am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} The AU breakout is the breakout of the 4am to 8am bar UK time. It was successful yesterday and today.
ah ok thx,
so it should be like this bar?
(blue rectangle yesterday, red today)
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trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #50,075
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:53am Jun 9, 2020 6:53am
Quoting ia1979
Billy bar break MORE THAN covered any losses from yesterday on the break South this morning. AU 4am-8am break successful too. Iddd, you keep going back to a 5 pip stop on GU. That will not work.
Suicide
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,076
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:54am Jun 9, 2020 6:54am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} The AU breakout is the breakout of the 4am to 8am bar UK time. It was successful yesterday and today.
A/U was very good,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,077
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:56am Jun 9, 2020 6:56am
Quoting MrGreen95
{quote} I think you are overcomplicating it. Open a demo account. Trade for 3 months like that with the amount of capital you want to use live: Billy bar, trade the breakout and aim for +6-7 pips. If you hit TP, well, look for next day If you fail you can do 2 things: take SL and aim for 10-15 pips trading H4 bars Or when you go -10/15 just open an opposite trade so you have now -15 loss blocked in a limbo and take the third trade like a stand-alone trade aiming for +15 pips for go to BE. Pretty the same thing of the first way. Don't focus only...
Well said Mr G, hope you are well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,078
  • Jun 9, 2020 6:58am Jun 9, 2020 6:58am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} As Bojack34, Lem and probably Billy have all said, if you are looking for an easier method with a high strike rate (80% plus), with potentially 1:1 risk reward, then the AU 4am-8am break is perhaps better suited to your needs. Go for 10 pips on the break with a 10 pip SL. If it fails, come back tomorrow. If you want to keep playing with GU with a 5 pip SL, there's nothing more I can add that hasn't been said already. You lost on GU yesterday, but look at how much you could have made on the break today. Good luck with your trading.
Hi I, I was trading the A/U 04-00 break at over 90% strike rate,
If you (not you) have doubts ,uncertainties you'll never trade it, but lose.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,079
  • Jun 9, 2020 7:03am Jun 9, 2020 7:03am
I have a lot of time watching charts, I may not sit at screen hour in hour out.
I can see a 4 hour daily chart and comprehend in minutes, I can spend longer and see things, anomalies if you wish.

I could of gone to work for 40 hours, doing what ever, gardening, office, taxi driver etc.
If you want money, you work for it, watching a screen is work.
It paid off and still pays off.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,080
  • Jun 9, 2020 7:39am Jun 9, 2020 7:39am
DAX building for an afternoon recovery?
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Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
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