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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #50,041
  • Jun 9, 2020 2:48am Jun 9, 2020 2:48am
Quoting dimash0609
{quote} Hi Idd, below is backtesting data that I did for April and May. without using any filter. With the distribution of the data below, it is true that if there is a loss then profits for a few days will be lost, but im sure we can recover losing trade by compunding... {image}
Yeah... OR losing even more by compounding if these further trades gets lost too, who knows. I have no crystal ball.

Stats: Well, i just did that for the last good month for GBP/USD trying to apply the basics rules given here to me for the 08:00-15 Breakout Setup.

From these stats at least i can't see how a +5 on average per day would have been achieved trading only GBP/USD 08:00-15 Breakout Setup.

Its a huge different if there is a +5 on average to make on a retrace, second, third trade BUT what kind of risk you have to take here to do so?

With the losers and passed trades (filtered with the SMA, not in the rules, Lem advice) i can't see how you would have gotten out positive by taken these 30-34 trades "only" for a target of +5 (well actually more like 7 Pips to compound for spread and commissions). I think some of them not reached the +7, would have to check again.
  • #50,042
  • Jun 9, 2020 2:50am Jun 9, 2020 2:50am
Quoting Davidh061
{quote} Bummer! But nice foot work MrC, back of the net
I'm like a 3 legged donkey mate!
What was interesting at 7am it had a 'little shimmy' spike up around 910, then the rest is history, DOWN TO 650!
I actually love it, you're half asleep eating your porridge then out of nowhere, all hell breaks loose
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #50,043
  • Jun 9, 2020 2:57am Jun 9, 2020 2:57am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} I'm like a 3 legged donkey mate! What was interesting at 7am it had a 'little shimmy' spike up around 910, then the rest is history, DOWN TO 650! I actually love it, you're half asleep eating your porridge then out of nowhere, all hell breaks loose
That makes two of us! Nothing worse than trying to eat and trade, especially porridge! The DAX obviously had a nose full of Nigella Lawson's "self raising flour" this morning and off it went, made up for d*cking about yesterday!
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
  • #50,044
  • Jun 9, 2020 2:58am Jun 9, 2020 2:58am
Quoting dimash0609
{quote} I have read your notes over and over Bo, and this is my first month of trading using a billy bar ... I have been backtesting for 1 year and found that the billy bar has never lost 4 days in a row (max is 3) ... IMO with a maximum risk of 1% per trade, even if there are 5x losing streaks I still can do the compunding to recover the loss.. Im still learning tho edit: abt compunding on winning trade, i will compund the next trade 1% of my last balace.. so the lot size every day is growing according to my equity
You might be able to help me.

Have a look at the last 34 days i posted where i did my stats. I just marked winners, losers, passed ones. Forget about the passed ones and look only at Billy Bar 08:00 GBP/USD for the last good month. Target +5 (so 7 Pips), without compounding. Also tell me what stop loss used or how done any hedge / counter trade if not using a stop. Let me know the outcome. From what i tested this would have been not so good (well said).

thanks in advance.
  • #50,045
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:06am Jun 9, 2020 3:06am
Quoting Davidh061
{quote} That makes two of us! Nothing worse than trying to eat and trade, especially porridge! The DAX obviously had a nose full of Nigella Lawson's "self raising flour" this morning and off it went, made up for d*cking about yesterday!
Love Nigella! I'm normally an advocate of healthy eating but then someone sent me this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ESQt7n7WAAAK4NT.jpeg Size: 75 KB
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #50,046
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:06am Jun 9, 2020 3:06am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yeah... OR losing even more by compounding if these further trades gets lost too, who knows. I have no crystal ball. Stats: Well, i just did that for the last good month for GBP/USD trying to apply the basics rules given here to me for the 08:00-15 Breakout Setup. From these stats at least i can't see how a +5 on average per day would have been achieved trading only GBP/USD 08:00-15 Breakout Setup. Its a huge different if there is a +5 on average to make on a retrace, second, third trade BUT what kind of risk...
no one here have crystal ball.

I just show you my manual backtesting for last 2 months.. result is good.. and also i did backtesting from April 2019.. maximum losing strike 3 days in a row.. with that stat now i need to apply a good MM to maximize my profit... when you said " OR losing even more by compounding if these further trades gets lost too" yes thats possible, but stats show it safe...

plus i only risk 1% of my capital per trade
PIVOT Return This Year: na
  • #50,047
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:08am Jun 9, 2020 3:08am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} Love Nigella! I'm normally an advocate of healthy eating but then someone sent me this {image}
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
  • #50,048
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:14am Jun 9, 2020 3:14am
Quoting lddd
{quote} You might be able to help me. Have a look at the last 34 days i posted where i did my stats. I just marked winners, losers, passed ones. Forget about the passed ones and look only at Billy Bar 08:00 GBP/USD for the last good month. Target +5 (so 7 Pips), without compounding. Also tell me what stop loss used or how done any hedge / counter trade if not using a stop. Let me know the outcome. From what i tested this would have been not so good (well said). thanks in advance.
this?

dont hedge, dont counter trade, just put hard SL on the Hi/Lo of the 08.00 15M candle and this is the result
Attached Image
PIVOT Return This Year: na
  • #50,049
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:16am Jun 9, 2020 3:16am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yeah... OR losing even more by compounding if these further trades gets lost too, who knows. I have no crystal ball. Stats: Well, i just did that for the last good month for GBP/USD trying to apply the basics rules given here to me for the 08:00-15 Breakout Setup. From these stats at least i can't see how a +5 on average per day would have been achieved trading only GBP/USD 08:00-15 Breakout Setup. Its a huge different if there is a +5 on average to make on a retrace, second, third trade BUT what kind of risk you have to take here to do...
i would also not have a good feeling behind to play a little martingale. and i will never try this.
but when it works for some individual why not.

in art its similar, one can paint with oil, for the other artist its impossible to use oil.
the only common thing both artists have: they are artists.
and on the way down they quarrel a lot about the best material...

trading is nearly the same. its kind of an art.
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #50,050
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:25am Jun 9, 2020 3:25am
It looks like there is a bit of 'risk off' in the market....maybe cos it's FED WEEK?
FOMC tomorrow.....always expect a bit of extra volatility when the central banks are at work
Right I need to go and get my a$$ kicked again
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Be careful out there traders!
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #50,051
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:28am Jun 9, 2020 3:28am
Quoting dimash0609
{quote} this? dont hedge, dont counter trade, just put hard SL on the Hi/Lo of the 08.00 15M candle and this is the result {image}
honestly, that looks pretty good to me. any positive expectancy is good.
  • #50,052
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:31am Jun 9, 2020 3:31am
Quoting mrcreosote
It looks like there is a bit of 'risk off' in the market....maybe cos it's FED WEEK? FOMC tomorrow.....always expect a bit of extra volatility when the central banks are at work Right I need to go and get my a$$ kicked again {image} Be careful out there traders!
I think some teachers going back after lock down have forgotten the rules of engagement!
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
  • #50,053
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:37am Jun 9, 2020 3:37am
Quoting mrcreosote
It looks like there is a bit of 'risk off' in the market....maybe cos it's FED WEEK? FOMC tomorrow.....always expect a bit of extra volatility when the central banks are at work Right I need to go and get my a$$ kicked again {image} Be careful out there traders!
Extra please
Attached Image
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #50,054
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:41am Jun 9, 2020 3:41am
O dear I just got beaten up again......defo off this time
Attached Image

I might resolve to trading the Billy bar tomorrow
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #50,055
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:46am Jun 9, 2020 3:46am
Quoting mrcreosote
O dear I just got beaten up again......defo off this time {image} I might resolve to trading the Billy bar tomorrow
Inserted Video
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
  • #50,056
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:50am Jun 9, 2020 3:50am
Quoting mrcreosote
O dear I just got beaten up again......defo off this time {image} I might resolve to trading the Billy bar tomorrow
Better luck tomorrow MrC
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but no simpler - Einstein
  • #50,057
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:54am Jun 9, 2020 3:54am
Cable, adr made, I stopped trades ages ago as posted, i
I have battered e/u though.
so Cable, we had the open with adr lines showing below,
Attached Image

then with movement adr lines adjusted, below,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 09 B.png Size: 21 KB

and further movement, adr lines adjusted as price moved.below. to show adr now made.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 09 C.png Size: 12 KB

I know I have posted 2 of the above charts, but get it in your head how I adjust my lines.
Trade well.

edit, the first chart was 4 hour and the following 2 charts 2 hours, it doesn't matter, just look at price on right side.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,058
  • Jun 9, 2020 3:57am Jun 9, 2020 3:57am
Quoting Davidh061
Got it! +137
137 ???? ooooooo not sure if that is allowed in here, NICE ONE BUD, take no prisoners.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,059
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:00am Jun 9, 2020 4:00am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Yeah... OR losing even more by compounding if these further trades gets lost too, who knows. I have no crystal ball. Stats: Well, i just did that for the last good month for GBP/USD trying to apply the basics rules given here to me for the 08:00-15 Breakout Setup. From these stats at least i can't see how a +5 on average per day would have been achieved trading only GBP/USD 08:00-15 Breakout Setup. Its a huge different if there is a +5 on average to make on a retrace, second, third trade BUT what kind of risk you have to take here to do...
the Greek girl who I trade for, and for only 5 pips.
I have enough banked for her, to buy a house on the South Coast.
You cannot have doubts to trade, YOU HAVE TRUST... YOU HAVE METHOD,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #50,060
  • Jun 9, 2020 4:01am Jun 9, 2020 4:01am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} Love Nigella! I'm normally an advocate of healthy eating but then someone sent me this {image}
I love Nigella, the tart, I have a nice sausage recipe for her lol.
no more of that ,lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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