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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #49,961
  • Jun 8, 2020 11:03am Jun 8, 2020 11:03am
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} so this 2 hour bar, the 6-8am bar? EDIT why 2 longs? that takes 2 clicks lol Quicker to double the size then just close half of it for 5% and the other half is hedging the failed short? EDIT 2 That doesn't sound good either, just close all the trades, job done! Sooooooo I need that 1 click close all EA??
I had to look who posted this, lol.
I count my trades separate.
I can close 2 trades simultaneously or just 1.
I am in total control how I trade.
I do adjust lot size too.
then we have adding on too, I build up points.
anyway run time.
1st time in ages as I have had knee ligament damage.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,962
  • Jun 8, 2020 11:05am Jun 8, 2020 11:05am
I trade breaks, 00-00 and 08-00 , I confess now to trading off 2 hour bars, this was a bit of a secret lol.

that's all you need to know.

I want the 5% first and foremast......
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,963
  • Jun 8, 2020 11:14am Jun 8, 2020 11:14am
Ok, so how about 'dem Ducks?

You'd kind of think that as they cover the shorter time frames, they would be more accurate, right? Well, let's see.

Duck #1 - H4 Long Bias

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ThreeDucks-Duck1onH4-LongBias.png Size: 47 KB


Duck #2 - H1 Mixed Signal.

Mixed, you say? How's that happen? Well, yes, mixed, as price first opens below the ma (and that in itself would stop you dead) but crossed back above at some point.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ThreeDucks-Duck2onH1-MixedBias.png Size: 57 KB


Finally, as I said, in reality that price opening below that ma would have killed any trade entry at all but just for the sake of looking, here's the Third Duck...

Duck #3 - 5 min Short Bias.

So, if you did need any final persuasion, that last duck would have done so.

No trade for you today.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ThreeDucks-Duck3on5minShortBias8thJune2020.png Size: 67 KB


Now, you could get cute and say that well, actually price did, in fact, cross back up above the ma on that Third Duck's back but really...Grasp at straws much?
  • #49,964
  • Jun 8, 2020 11:16am Jun 8, 2020 11:16am
Quoting billytt
If you have doubt, STAY OUT. I have said that many many times. I f you are not sure, STAY OUT.
I like that Billy.

I have no doubts = I lose the trade
I have many doubts = I lose the trade

  • #49,965
  • Jun 8, 2020 11:18am Jun 8, 2020 11:18am
So, there you can see how something as simple as the above can help you. There are even indicators out there - I have one myself - that will put the different timeframe MAs on one chart, the trigger chart in this instance is best, if flicking through three charts is too much like hard work.

I even have a Three Pigs indicator that sits in the corner and tells you whether your price is above or below on each time frame.

Ye' pays ye'r money and ye' makes ye'r choice.

Use it. Don't use it.

I'm off to see how the shiny stuff is doing.
  • #49,966
  • Jun 8, 2020 11:34am Jun 8, 2020 11:34am
Quoting lemercenaire
Ok, so how about 'dem Ducks? You'd kind of think that as they cover the shorter time frames, they would be more accurate, right? Well, let's see. Duck #1 - H4 Long Bias {image} Duck #2 - H1 Mixed Signal. Mixed, you say? How's that happen? Well, yes, mixed, as price first opens below the ma (and that in itself would stop you dead) but crossed back above at some point. {image} Finally, as I said, in reality that price opening below that ma would have killed any trade entry at all but just for the sake of looking, here's the Third Duck... Duck #3 -...
Thanks Lem. I tried moving averages applied over multiple time frames as a filter in the past, but then trading the shorter time frames for let’s say the eu session from Frankfurt Open until New York Open trading only one currency pair or other market.

A) You get far to less opportunities to make money with what ever kind of risk/reward money management strategy applied.

B) You would have to scan/watch/trade multiple markets.

I will try applying a 20 MA as a filter for M15 and backtest this for the last month tonight compared to a fixed stop loss approach, compared to no stop / hedge and then re-entry within the next setup and double the size.

But i don’t really understand what setting a directional filter help much here if you only hunt for something like a 5-10 Pips before you end your day?

For me this sounds more like practice you would do to try making sure going with a „trend“ where this again could change at any time you enter live and then for what? Well if you aim for a large pips move then ok, but for 5...?

You would still have to protect your self either by monitoring the trade and exit if X happens, setting fixed stop loss (like I tried) or that hedge thing Billy is doing.
  • #49,967
  • Jun 8, 2020 11:35am Jun 8, 2020 11:35am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I don’t really understand it too. Didn’t found a chart yet showing what is done on a failed trade. Written words could be a problem here, hard to understand for a new trader.
he's just told us! 2 longs
EDIT: you need to realise Sir Billy is the best trader ever who says 'I don't think, I just trade!'
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #49,968
  • Jun 8, 2020 11:46am Jun 8, 2020 11:46am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I like that Billy. I have no doubts = I lose the trade I have many doubts = I lose the trade
lddd, one thing you should be aware of.....most folk on here don't work a proper job, we can come and go as we please AND be sure they have put in 1000s if not 10000 or even 100000 hours looking at charts
If you have a family and you need a regular income to pay your bills and look after your family, TURN BACK NOW!! This is not for you and you need to stick to a 9 to 5 Job
I give this advice in a well meaning manner, trading can really mess with your head as well as your bank balance
Good luck again from me!
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
  • #49,969
  • Jun 8, 2020 11:48am Jun 8, 2020 11:48am
Quoting billytt
I trade breaks, 00-00 and 08-00 , I confess now to trading off 2 hour bars, this was a bit of a secret lol. that's all you need to know. I want the 5% first and foremast......
Billy so we now understand you want 5% for the day which equals 5 Pips, well let’s say 10 Pips to account for spread and commission.

Then what is your max loss you are willing to accept for the day and where you would close all trades no matter what you have opened for what ever setup?

The same 5%, less, more?

So the next day you would aim for 10% to become break even again by increasing risk? Or just do the same thing and aim for another 5% in the „hope“ that not a few more losing days will follow?
  • #49,970
  • Jun 8, 2020 11:53am Jun 8, 2020 11:53am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks Lem. I tried moving averages applied over multiple time frames as a filter in the past, but then trading the shorter time frames for let’s say the eu session from Frankfurt Open until New York Open trading only one currency pair or other market. A) You get far to less opportunities to make money with what ever kind of risk/reward money management strategy applied. B) You would have to scan/watch/trade multiple markets. I will try applying a 20 MA as a filter for M15 and backtest this for the last month tonight compared to a fixed...
As I said...

''Ye' pays ye'r money and ye' makes ye'r choice.''
  • #49,971
  • Jun 8, 2020 12:01pm Jun 8, 2020 12:01pm
Quoting mrcreosote
{quote} lddd, one thing you should be aware of.....most folk on here don't work a proper job, we can come and go as we please AND be sure they have put in 1000s if not 10000 or even 100000 hours looking at charts If you have a family and you need a regular income to pay your bills and look after your family, TURN BACK NOW!! This is not for you and you need to stick to a 9 to 5 Job I give this advice in a well meaning manner, trading can really mess with your head as well as your bank balance Good...
Thanks. Well I am fine, I don’t HAVE to pay the bills from trading forex.

I do also not work a regular job, so I might have some more time than the average but I don’t think having more time automatically means having better results when it comes to trading.

I can’t say if people making this for a living (if they really exit and not just on forums) really sitting in front of their charts all day long and trade spot fx until they die (without compounding) or trading high position sizes with a high 6/7 figures broker account. But here I would ask my self why somebody who already has a lot of money to risk would do something as stupid as speculate trading while not just sit off the nice few percentages return you would get with just zero risk at all sitting off your ass, investing such sums in properties or what ever.
  • #49,972
  • Jun 8, 2020 12:02pm Jun 8, 2020 12:02pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks Lem. I tried moving averages applied over multiple time frames as a filter in the past, but then trading the shorter time frames for let’s say the eu session from Frankfurt Open until New York Open trading only one currency pair or other market. A) You get far to less opportunities to make money with what ever kind of risk/reward money management strategy applied. B) You would have to scan/watch/trade multiple markets. I will try applying a 20 MA as a filter for M15 and backtest this for the last month tonight compared to a fixed...
I also don't quite understand what you mean here: But i don’t really understand what setting a directional filter help much here if you only hunt for something like a 5-10 Pips before you end your day?

Bias, as it is used properly, shows directional weight. Why would you not want to take that into account? I don't honestly see what possible difference the size or amount of pips you are going for makes to anything.

Look, you know what, it was just an example of things you could try. Three Pigs/Ducks is a method in itself and a bias finder second. It's not going to work as effectively as a genuine Bias-Finder.

If I were you, I would stick rigidly to Billy's way of doing things and avoid any kind of complication at all.

If you aren't willing to learn how to counter, then maybe it's time to take it on the chin and if nothing else, move sideways onto the AU H4 set up. That's no criticism, it's just that countering is such a large part of many of the methods here used by both Billy and myself that it's kind of like trying to paint an oil painting without being able to use any burnt umber (any artist will get that one).
  • #49,973
  • Jun 8, 2020 12:06pm Jun 8, 2020 12:06pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks. Well I am fine, I don’t HAVE to pay the bills from trading forex. I do also not work a regular job, so I might have some more time than the average but I don’t think having more time automatically means having better results when it comes to trading. I can’t say if people making this for a living (if they really exit and not just on forums) really sitting in front of their charts all day long and trade spot fx until they die (without compounding) or trading high position sizes with a high 6/7 figures broker account. But here...
''...while not just sit off the nice few percentages return you would get with just zero risk at all sitting off your ass, investing such sums in properties or what ever''.

Who says we don't?
  • #49,974
  • Jun 8, 2020 12:08pm Jun 8, 2020 12:08pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} I also don't quite understand what you mean here: But i don’t really understand what setting a directional filter help much here if you only hunt for something like a 5-10 Pips before you end your day? Bias, as it is used properly, shows directional weight. Why would you not want to take that into account? I don't honestly see what possible difference the size or amount of pips you are going for makes to anything. Look, you know what, it was just an example of things you could try. Three Pigs/Ducks is a method in itself and a bias finder...
Thanks I will try that for sure.
  • #49,975
  • Jun 8, 2020 12:13pm Jun 8, 2020 12:13pm
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} ''...while not just sit off the nice few percentages return you would get with just zero risk at all sitting off your ass, investing such sums in properties or what ever''. Who says we don't?
I know there is no reasons why such person should not do all kind of investments at the same time.

I also have multiple income streams.

But i am trying to understand how/if somebody actually would do this (trading only spot fx) would realistically achieve this profitable over long term to pay the bills from (without any other income streams)

So yes they might exist but I never met one in real live (i know on FF they all exit) but if you guys want to meet up I am always available for a good wine or a nice beer ;-)
  • #49,976
  • Jun 8, 2020 12:16pm Jun 8, 2020 12:16pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} Billy so we now understand you want 5% for the day which equals 5 Pips, well let’s say 10 Pips to account for spread and commission. Then what is your max loss you are willing to accept for the day and where you would close all trades no matter what you have opened for what ever setup? The same 5%, less, more? So the next day you would aim for 10% to become break even again by increasing risk? Or just do the same thing and aim for another 5% in the „hope“ that not a few more losing days will follow?
i trade for 2 people, originally i used their money to trade and my money for the margin needed.
i made them enough money so i now use their money for the margin as well as the trade.
This brings me to the 5%= 5 pips, that equates to £600.
i do not close trades, i counter then look for the next trade.
i do not hope, i do not guess. i trade numbers/breaks, stats.
I do not think!!!!!!

edit again, i have lost 30k 3 times, but 2 could of been avoided.
its all learning and perfecting, and staying with the market movers.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,977
  • Jun 8, 2020 12:21pm Jun 8, 2020 12:21pm
Quoting lddd
{quote} I know there is no reasons why such person should not do all kind of investments at the same time. I also have multiple income streams. But i am trying to understand how/if somebody actually would do this (trading only spot fx) would realistically achieve this profitable over long term to pay the bills from (without any other income streams) So yes they might exist but I never met one in real live (i know on FF they all exit) but if you guys want to meet up I am always available for a good wine or a nice beer ;-)
If i went and lost every penny i have in the bank, and actually i would prefer to have it under my bed.
if i lost it, i would not of lost it, if you understand, because originally years ago i made a lot by compounding and bought property, that is my income now through rental.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,978
  • Edited 12:42pm Jun 8, 2020 12:31pm | Edited 12:42pm
Quoting lemercenaire
Running some stuff via Gold-US, so twiddling my thumbs while it does its thing and decided to have a look out in the farmyard. OK, so just for spitballin's sake... Here's how our Three Li'l Pigs would have run on The Billy Bar today. Our Pig #1 - The Weekly - shows Long Bias. Just. {image} Pig #2 - The Daily - shows us it too is Long. {image} Pig #3 - The H4 - and hey ho, it too is telling us go long only, young man. {image} So, looking at our 15 min chart and ignoring any move South of The Border and yep, we get our +5. Kinda' just but who cares,...
I would have done better by only placing the pending buy order too.

Learned something today, trying to do better tomorrow.
  • #49,979
  • Jun 8, 2020 12:39pm Jun 8, 2020 12:39pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} i trade for 2 people, originally i used their money to trade and my money for the margin needed. i made them enough money so i now use their money for the margin as well as the trade. This brings me to the 5%= 5 pips, that equates to £600. i do not close trades, i counter then look for the next trade. i do not hope, i do not guess. i trade numbers/breaks, stats. I do not think!!!!!! edit again, i have lost 30k 3 times, but 2 could of been avoided. its all learning and perfecting, and staying with the market movers.
Thanks for your honest words.
  • #49,980
  • Jun 8, 2020 12:41pm Jun 8, 2020 12:41pm
who mentioned screen watching,>???? Mr C,,, i have thousands of hours screen watching. i still do it
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
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