Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2497 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #49,921
  • Jun 8, 2020 7:02am Jun 8, 2020 7:02am
Quoting claudia1
{quote} Hi SF - looks like premier league due to start again.
Hi Claudia..hope you're well
Yes..I am looking forward to watching EPL..I have UK tv here so can watch match of the day..!! Or even a live match..yayyy..!!
My old boss is a Geordie so I have another reason to watch out for Magpies....good luck Hammers and Magpies..
Onwards and upwards...
  • #49,922
  • Jun 8, 2020 7:04am Jun 8, 2020 7:04am
Quoting soccerfan
{quote} Did that get called the Witching hour???
No, not really. The Witching Hour is/was the very same as The Dead Zone but shifted to Midnight (off the 23:00-00:00 dead hour).

Buy Zone is off the Open and the trigger is a set amount of pips away from there. I use bias as well.

As I said, I will run through it later.
  • #49,923
  • Jun 8, 2020 7:07am Jun 8, 2020 7:07am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Unfortunately, I don't quite understand your kind of humor... Cool for you if you mastered everything and making a killing with trading. But actually these are the kind of answers why i left the TMS topic. Anyways.
Whatever.
  • #49,924
  • Jun 8, 2020 7:08am Jun 8, 2020 7:08am
Quoting lemercenaire
{quote} No, not really. The Witching Hour is/was the very same as The Dead Zone but shifted to Midnight (off the 23:00-00:00 dead hour). Buy Zone is off the Open and the trigger is a set amount of pips away from there. I use bias as well. As I said, I will run through it later.
Great, post at your convenience, thanks for your help, anything that is odd hours in UK is welcome here..!!!
Onwards and upwards...
  • #49,925
  • Jun 8, 2020 7:28am Jun 8, 2020 7:28am
While I wait for some action in one of the yards:

Iddddddddddddd here is a little something. Two in fact. That will get you where you want to go when you finally give up on The Billy Bar.

Most, if not all, here will have heard of them or variants of them. They work and are great for set ups throughout the day.

Ah! I hear you cry...but you wanted a simple set time to trade. Well, here's the thing. Use these set-ups but don't trade them instead, use them to give you a bias for The Billy Bar. Yes, you will cut down on your number of trades but maybe, just maybe you will get the edge you are looking for, or begin to build your own variant.

#1 Three Little Pigs

Weekly Chart. Add 55 SMA RED
Daily Chart. Add 21 SMA AMBER
H4 Chart. Add 34 SMA GREEN

Price must be on the same side of all three moving averages.
So, once it is so on the Weekly and the Daily, move to the H4...
Look for a rejection from the H4 34 SMA and enter.


#2 Three Ducks

If the above is too long term for you and admittedly it won't help as much with The Billy Bar, then look at this variant instead.

Duck #1 H4 60 SMA
Duck #2 H1 60 SMA
Duck #3 5-Min 60 SMA

Same deal.

More useful for bias on The Billy Bar and should you wish, nothing to say you can't use them both at the same time.

Work out your own risk tolerance as far a SL and TP and whatever.

Maybe that can give you something. I know you say you are done with system jumping but it gives you some options.

In fact, you know what. Here's some sauce on top...

BV Chart

EURUSD 1 to 5 min chart (I'm assuming you won't have access to true tick-data, so this will do) 20 EMA.
Play rejection from the MA.

Spike-89

H1 Chart Any Pair SMA 89
Look for spikes through and back out of the MA.

Your call. I could go on and on, there are so many variants playing off the same simple-as-simple-gets methods that have stood the test of time.

Jazz them up with adding a 200 ma and play either side of it like the pros. Add an RSI filter like over on RoadMap. Add Supply+Demand Zone. Add pivots.

Claudia says she will post you up another at some point. Maybe that'll be the one.

I hope you find something. Soon. I really, really do. For all our sakes.
  • #49,926
  • Jun 8, 2020 7:32am Jun 8, 2020 7:32am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Unfortunately, I don't quite understand your kind of humor... Cool for you if you mastered everything and making a killing with trading. But actually these are the kind of answers why i left the TMS topic. Anyways.
Just passing through but.........

My chart may be different but curious as to why you lost using Billy's approach here?
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #49,927
  • Jun 8, 2020 7:32am Jun 8, 2020 7:32am
ducks & pigs???? nice, Trade well
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,928
  • Jun 8, 2020 7:41am Jun 8, 2020 7:41am
Quoting billytt
ducks & pigs???? nice, Trade well
Inserted Video
  • #49,929
  • Jun 8, 2020 7:44am Jun 8, 2020 7:44am
Meanwhile, back at the farm.

Was a bit cramped in The Dead Zone but I had a Voodoo Short Bias and there was still just about enough room below for price to reach the Demand Zone, so hey, ho, here we go...

Dead Zone UC Short Bias +5

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #49,930
  • Jun 8, 2020 7:45am Jun 8, 2020 7:45am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} Just passing through but......... My chart may be different but curious as to why you lost using Billy's approach here? {image}
I had two pending orders placed at high/low of the 08:00 Bar. Both with a fixed TP/SL +5 Pips. Price hit the low of that bar first and triggered the short trade but then stopped out at -5. Then i waited for price to retrace back to the high of the bar. This happened at triggered the next buy pending order where i now aimed for +10 (+14 actually to make back the loss + spread and comissions). Again price retraced back hitting the SL first, thats why i ended here with -10 Pips in sum.

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  • #49,931
  • Jun 8, 2020 7:58am Jun 8, 2020 7:58am
Just to add to the Billy Bar conversation.

My Voodoo Bias was a Neutral-to-Pretty-Strong-Short today.

(As an aside, The Not-The-Billy-Bar got the +5)

So, I would have had the Short just-about trigger and fail and then the break long, I would have taken the +4 and-a-bit it gave me. Then since, technically it was a Double-Fail, my Wick-Zone trades come into play and I would have bagged on the way back down (as well as the Spike-Hunt off the top).

Once that Supply Zone had shown its hand, then it was an easy bag on the drop out of that and back through the Billy-Bar Zone, with the Voodoo Bias finally kicking in.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDM15asTheBillyBarWithVoodooShortBias8thJune2020.png Size: 41 KB


Oh and then the bounce back up out of The Demand below, well that was just peachy.
  • #49,932
  • Jun 8, 2020 8:06am Jun 8, 2020 8:06am
Quoting lemercenaire
Just to add to the Billy Bar conversation. My Voodoo Bias was a Neutral-to-Pretty-Strong-Short today. (As an aside, The Not-The-Billy-Bar got the +5) So, I would have had the Short just-about trigger and fail and then the break long, I would have taken the +4 and-a-bit it gave me. Then since, technically it was a Double-Fail, my Wick-Zone trades come into play and I would have bagged on the way back down (as well as the Spike-Hunt off the top). Once that Supply Zone had shown its hand, then it was an easy bag on the drop out of that and back through...
Speaking of which - Around 26300 also happened to be the bounce off the 200ma Lem
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #49,933
  • Jun 8, 2020 8:11am Jun 8, 2020 8:11am
Quoting lemercenaire
While I wait for some action in one of the yards: Iddddddddddddd here is a little something. Two in fact. That will get you where you want to go when you finally give up on The Billy Bar. Most, if not all, here will have heard of them or variants of them. They work and are great for set ups throughout the day. Ah! I hear you cry...but you wanted a simple set time to trade. Well, here's the thing. Use these set-ups but don't trade them instead, use them to give you a bias for The Billy Bar. Yes, you will cut down on your number of trades but maybe,...
Great Post Lem. Bias plays a big part.
  • #49,934
  • Jun 8, 2020 8:15am Jun 8, 2020 8:15am
Quoting lemercenaire
Just to add to the Billy Bar conversation. My Voodoo Bias was a Neutral-to-Pretty-Strong-Short today. (As an aside, The Not-The-Billy-Bar got the +5) So, I would have had the Short just-about trigger and fail and then the break long, I would have taken the +4 and-a-bit it gave me. Then since, technically it was a Double-Fail, my Wick-Zone trades come into play and I would have bagged on the way back down (as well as the Spike-Hunt off the top). Once that Supply Zone had shown its hand, then it was an easy bag on the drop out of that and back through...
Your Voodoo bias makes me jealous lol. Another good point you made here. The not the Billy bar (break of the 7:45-8am bar) made +5 today. It must be rare for both to fail on the same day. Now if only we had a stats king among us here. Oh wait...
  • #49,935
  • Jun 8, 2020 8:15am Jun 8, 2020 8:15am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Great Post Lem. Bias plays a big part.
Billy's stats trump all. Absolutely. If you note, I let the Billy Bar play out in full - ie to a second fail - before activating the Wick Zone. Previously and with every other method I use, I would have taken the WZ break going North, after the first fail. However, I place such weight behind Billy's work, that for this, I let it do its thing first.

Overall, though, I will always use a bias element now, in the initial set-up to pretty much any method.
  • #49,936
  • Jun 8, 2020 8:17am Jun 8, 2020 8:17am
Just a quick dip in the pool.

A slightly weedy set up, as on the 1-min chart, price was on the opposite side of the Kijun-sen. Paid off fine though.

US30 5-min Kijun-sen Chart +12.6

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #49,937
  • Jun 8, 2020 8:19am Jun 8, 2020 8:19am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} Your Voodoo bias makes me jealous lol. Another good point you made here. The not the Billy bar (break of the 7:45-8am bar) made +5 today. It must be rare for both to fail on the same day. Now if only we had a stats king among us here. Oh wait...
I do like The Not-The-Billy-Bar, I must admit...but for Pete's sake, let's not add it into the mix!
  • #49,938
  • Jun 8, 2020 8:22am Jun 8, 2020 8:22am
That US30 is actually hitting a top on the H1 chart. Possible reverse/pull back but also a possible Supply Clear Out.
  • #49,939
  • Jun 8, 2020 8:24am Jun 8, 2020 8:24am
Quoting lemercenaire
That US30 is actually hitting a top on the H1 chart. Possible reverse/pull back but also a possible Supply Clear Out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: InkedUS30possibleSupplyClearOut8thJune2020_LI.jpg Size: 530 KB
  • #49,940
  • Jun 8, 2020 8:25am Jun 8, 2020 8:25am
Quoting lemercenaire
While I wait for some action in one of the yards: Iddddddddddddd here is a little something. Two in fact. That will get you where you want to go when you finally give up on The Billy Bar.
Why should i give it up... Just started

Well its what i asked a few times already.

I asked about adding further filters for directional bias before placing my trades, not? I think i also asked about ADR usage.

I think Billyīs answer has been that doing what ever kind of market conditional / directional bias analysses FIRST would be an overkill and not needed to "just" get that +5 Pips by the end.

Regarding ADR i think to remember he told me its only used for the recovery part / failed trades.

So actually i canīt see much i did wrong here this morning instead of counting one loss today. Which happens... Cost of doing business right. But more important to me would be to end up positive after a week or month at least.

Like said i donīt aim for large pip moves, also donīt want to compound. If i find something that just works doing a few Pips a month but consistently i would simply put more money on my brokers account if thats whats needed to increase percentage profits in dollar amounts.
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