Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout | Page 2488 | Forex Factory

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Billytt Die happy trading e/j daily breakout

  • #49,741
  • Jun 5, 2020 6:24am Jun 5, 2020 6:24am
Quoting dimash0609
00:00 4H 08.00 15M 10.00 2H broke nicely... but for now i just focusing on 08.15 looking for 1% gain daily {image}
good idea bud. Hope you are well.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,742
  • Jun 5, 2020 7:03am Jun 5, 2020 7:03am
GBP/USD 08:00 (setup) 08:15 (entry)

Entry = Pending Buy around 1.26580, Pending Sell around 1.26410

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TP (+10 to account for spread and commission would have been reached)

It retraced back but without hitting the opposite Pending sell order at the low of the setup.

Now that’s a risk of around 20 Pips to make 10.

A stop loss of 5 or 10 = stopped out.

So that’s the Billy 08:15 Cable entry, is that correct?

Billy would open a counter trade / hedge at the low of 08:00 instead of placing a fixed stop loss?

Regards
  • #49,743
  • Jun 5, 2020 7:27am Jun 5, 2020 7:27am
Quoting lddd
GBP/USD 08:00 (setup) 08:15 (entry) Entry = Pending Buy around 1.26580, Pending Sell around 1.26410 {image} TP (+10 to account for spread and commission would have been reached) It retraced back but without hitting the opposite Pending sell order at the low of the setup. Now that’s a risk of around 20 Pips to make 10. A stop loss of 5 or 10 = stopped out. So that’s the Billy 08:15 Cable entry, is that correct? Billy would open a counter trade / hedge at the low of 08:00 instead of placing a fixed stop loss? Regards
That is correct, my set up.
High broke, +5% £600 kerching.
I actually did post this set up this morning

edit, sorry, I posted 00-00 4 hour bar entry, it is the same as the 08-00 but its easier to make more money.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,744
  • Jun 5, 2020 9:08am Jun 5, 2020 9:08am
Quoting mrcreosote
I ain't got all the answers dude In fact the older I get the more questions I have about certain aspects of this weird world we live in..... I know if I'd have listened to the folks on here a long time ago I'd probably be driving a Porsche by now.......or maybe not cos I enjoy the quiet life now It's tough cos even when some kind hearted person gives you the keys to pandoras box, our personalities can't always deal with it.... Ever read the stories about the multi-millionaires who win the national lottery particularly in the US? Most...
AHHHHHHH !! Questions - always more 'kin questions ! Noooooooo.....
Keys.....!! 'Kinell

Have a good weekend peeps. More Questions.....Hahahahaha !
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #49,745
  • Jun 5, 2020 9:16am Jun 5, 2020 9:16am
Quoting billytt
{quote} That is correct, my set up. High broke, +5% £600 kerching. I actually did post this set up this morning edit, sorry, I posted 00-00 4 hour bar entry, it is the same as the 08-00 but its easier to make more money.
Thanks for your kind comment on it.

I will see how it goes with a stop loss and or counter trade it. I would expect to many losing trades at a higher SL wouldn’t compensate for the TP even if strike rate is better than 50%, but let’s see.
  • #49,746
  • Jun 5, 2020 9:17am Jun 5, 2020 9:17am
Have a nice weekend all of you.
  • #49,747
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:27am Jun 5, 2020 10:27am
Quoting lddd
{quote} Thanks for your kind comment on it. I will see how it goes with a stop loss and or counter trade it. I would expect to many losing trades at a higher SL wouldn’t compensate for the TP even if strike rate is better than 50%, but let’s see.
I think Billy's strike rate is above 65% on this method. Or should I say 100%, as he trades his way out of failed breakouts.

You could also look at the 8am or 9am 1 hour GU bar. They usually breakout for a good handful on either side every day. You might have a fail on 1 side, but then the break on the other side should cover your original loss. Have a look at the past few months, you'll know what I mean. And most days the risk reward ratio is at least 1:1 or better. I think from memory the 9am 1 hour bar has better results.
  • #49,748
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:31am Jun 5, 2020 10:31am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} I think Billy's strike rate is above 65% on this method. Or should I say 100%, as he trades his way out of failed breakouts.
I will test how its going with a SL and then test counter / hedge as well.
  • #49,749
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:41am Jun 5, 2020 10:41am
Quoting ia1979
{quote} I think Billy's strike rate is above 65% on this method. Or should I say 100%, as he trades his way out of failed breakouts. You could also look at the 8am or 9am 1 hour GU bar. They usually breakout for a good handful on either side every day. You might have a fail on 1 side, but then the break on the other side should cover your original loss. Have a look at the past few months, you'll know what I mean. And most days the risk reward ratio is at least 1:1 or better. I think from memory the 9am 1 hour bar has better results.
Hi Ia, thanks for the kind words.
It is a very high strike rate but actual risk reward as they say is poor.But it you add it to another trade.bar the risk disappears and becomes positive..
Breakout is a very old successful method first used with stocks/shares .
i am not directing this post at you, as i know you know.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,750
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:41am Jun 5, 2020 10:41am
Quoting lddd
Have a nice weekend all of you.
you too bud.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,751
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:44am Jun 5, 2020 10:44am
Bagged a quick HOLO and posted over in TS' yard. At the same time, added this wee baby bird, again, just for giggles to say I had done something on the charts today, lol.

Went in as price got itself back over the 200 ma.

UJ 1-min Kijun-sen Chart +3.6 Heavy Jumbo, nevertheless. Kind of goes without saying.

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You'll note I have done away with the other Kijun-sen (100 setting) as it wasn't doing anything for me. Certainly not down on the 1-min.
  • #49,752
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:50am Jun 5, 2020 10:50am
Quoting turnip15
{quote} AHHHHHHH !! Questions - always more 'kin questions ! Noooooooo..... Keys.....!! 'Kinell Have a good weekend peeps. More Questions.....Hahahahaha ! {image}
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hope you are well Mr T, answer me, lol
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,753
  • Jun 5, 2020 10:59am Jun 5, 2020 10:59am
Time for some of yon toonz...

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  • #49,754
  • Jun 5, 2020 11:00am Jun 5, 2020 11:00am
Have a grand weekend, all. See you on the other side.
  • #49,755
  • Jun 5, 2020 11:02am Jun 5, 2020 11:02am
Quoting billytt
{quote} Hi Ia, thanks for the kind words. It is a very high strike rate but actual risk reward as they say is poor.But it you add it to another trade.bar the risk disappears and becomes positive.. Breakout is a very old successful method first used with stocks/shares . i am not directing this post at you, as i know you know.
I would prefer to end my trading as quick as possible for a few pips booked in even if that’s means a poor risk/reward.

As long as I would be able to manage a good strike rate like you say to have on this one setup that’s more than okay to me.

I just wonder about the term of „breakout“ here.

Should a breakout to consider it as a breakout not at least should move on for a few more bars or closed one price bar at least positive in the breakout direction you went?

I mean at time you make your 5 Pips here this could be the 8:15 - 8:30 bar (entry) that bar could retrace back and close below the open of the 8:00 - 8:15 bar (setup), so actually a failed breakout but still your pips would be made and you could end your day if this is your daily goal to achieve.

All the London breakout strategies I looked at so far (not tested them) seems to aim more like for a 30-50 Pips TP where trades would be hold on to for maybe a few more M15 candles, more M5 and far more M1. Also most of them trying to filter out setups in some ways trying to predict direction again by applying a moving average, looking for near S/R, levels, round numbers, market condition (trend direction, no trend) and all that.
  • #49,756
  • Jun 5, 2020 11:02am Jun 5, 2020 11:02am
Also, having a brilliant strike rate is no good if the trader is greedy.

My A/U 04-00 4 hour bar break, had a strike rate in the 90s.
But if you tried getting 40/50 /60 points , you would fail.

Another thing, the money you make, USE IT. ie add on, compound.
Get the Machine running, make money, make a bit extra, the extra can then help out with a fail???????,
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,757
  • Jun 5, 2020 11:03am Jun 5, 2020 11:03am
Quoting lemercenaire
Have a grand weekend, all. See you on the other side.
See ya Lem, you too have a good weekend.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,758
  • Jun 5, 2020 11:22am Jun 5, 2020 11:22am
Quoting lddd
{quote} I would prefer to end my trading as quick as possible for a few pips booked in even if that’s means a poor risk/reward. As long as I would be able to manage a good strike rate like you say to have on this one setup that’s more than okay to me. I just wonder about the term of „breakout“ here. Should a breakout to consider it as a breakout not at least should move on for a few more bars or closed one price bar at least positive in the breakout direction you went? I mean at time you make your 5 Pips here this could be the 8:15 - 8:30 bar (entry)...
Good Post.
Most breakout methods as you say will be advertised as saying, break look for 40/50 points.
It does work i suppose. but you still have fails.
BUT ,,, look at Frequency Distribution Stats, a lot of those advertised breakout candles, will have a minimum amount of points made, before either carrying on or retracing.
i am more interested in the retrace bars. most of the minimum points made will be , example 7/8/ points etc so if that is the case , i can look for 4/5 quite confident knowing i will win.
I have posted all this info before.
SEE LINE,TRADE LINE..PRICE HAS TO GO SOMEWHERE,,, PRICE WILL GO SOMEWHERE.
  • #49,759
  • Jun 5, 2020 12:30pm Jun 5, 2020 12:30pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} {image} {image} hope you are well Mr T, answer me, lol
Hi Billy. I feel better now after the nice people came to see me.

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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #49,760
  • Jun 5, 2020 12:40pm Jun 5, 2020 12:40pm
Quoting billytt
{quote} See ya Lem, you too have a good weekend.
Enjoy your weekend folks.
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every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
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