The end of the US stock market is nearing

yeah, I got the whole point and don't think it's unsubstantiated or unreasonable... in regards to the buck I too missed an opportunity to short it against the euro as I was expecting EUR/USD to come a little bit lower and to cover all the galling holes on the chart before turning around... , unfortunately it fell short of my projected target, that would make a potential diamond in progress even more legit, for about 200 pips...though DXY, as a by proxy "indicator" for trading eur/usd pair, looks a bit more convincing in terms of projecting that diamond pattern and its ability to be developed eventually... as to longer-term projections, I have never had any doubts that eur/usd will come back to about 1.35... that's one of those "must reach" levels which have to be targeted and achieved no matter what...the largest problem, as always, is my quite limited ability to predict timing... even for presumably symmetrical patterns it doesn't always works in some sort of a picture perfect manner worth of being included in a textbook as an illustration of some concept...
now the most plausible case scenario for DXY (if to assume that a diamond idea makes sense) would be to target a lower levels to form the next leg within the developing formation... the ideal target would be at around 91.40-50 which is a "phantom level" before turning up once again to start building another waive up towards 101.80 which would also be the ideal "phantom"... only then we can be almost certain that a diamond scenario will eventually play out as expected...

really keeping my eye on melt up,, capital flight. where did all the money go? where would you put it? china? euro? no Us. if this plays out it would be the greatest trade of century.

A melt up senerio would could look like, fear of round 2 covid, = dollar strength = then another injection of liquidity = whipsaw = capital flight buy and hold us equities = bubble = inflation= nwo lol

if the next couple months news and data keep producing counter-intuitive moves then we may very well be in a state of euphoria. This psychology can produce near 100% extensions

btw there is another issue I would like to point out at... it's about that timing projection../ if to assume that the diamond will eventually appear of the DXY charts and will in fact be symmetrical in terms of timing then we can make such a projection also... we can now see that it took exactly 3 years and one month to develop the broadening part... because of the delay while forming the second main diagonal, it seems that the market has to increase its speed and the average daily volatility in order to catch up with the schedule, thus presumably breaking out of the diamond in March, 2021...

seems reasonable. looking at break-even and wait, may even buy the euphoric very defensively i might add I to have the unanswered levels missing on the currencies . the mixed signals of extreme equities and opposite extreme currency levels has me puzzled. the melt-up may provide the answers.

still there is a chance for S&P and DJI to recover their initial losses completely before turning south once again...

tattoo (1) done
tattoo (2) done
Now watch tattoo (3)

never play against CB, extreemely painful lessons. Equities might be about the top this moment, might go bit higher. But what an opportunity wasted

Powered by Restaurants, Bars & Retailers, Jobs Bounce Off Bottom. Some Industries & Governments Continue to Shed Jobs

".. The unemployment rate would have been 16% if people had responded to the survey correctly, said the BLS; that would be 25.3 million unemployed. Abysmal."

Wolf R.

Hi IGROK,
Amazed to see ur replies and depth.
I have one question
In all previous crashes of 1991 scam, dot com bubble, 2008 and this year 2020 also, Pharma was the top most sector in gainers list. So if in future, inflation and meltdown is again about to happen for obvious reasons of economy and politics. Can business related to pharma and agriculture be invested to have gains or protection.

in my mind, a bear is an inverted bull and an euphoria is an inverted panic...I have seen plenty of CB interventions since mid 90-s and none of them worked in a longer run... the most recent example on FX market was SNB's 2011 action in support of weaker CHF that ended up in 2015 disaster for those, who believe that it might last forever... revisiting sub 2008-9 levels for the
stock markets worldwide is as inevitable as sunset...

meanwhile I have come up with another idea in regards to the DXY future behavior... looking at the chart that was showing all the signs of building a new diamond, I couldn't make any sense of that fast drop to 94.65 and the following spike back up to 102.99... from my point of view it didn't have any technical necessity, which is a rare case for the markets... though today I think I can offer a suggestion that might actually answer this questions and resolve the problem... here is a different and quite plausible version of the picture what I think we might see in the mid term... this one would definitely make some perfect technical sense...

Repeat After Me: The Markets Are Not the Economy

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/business/stock-market-economy-coronavirus.html


We're Living the Founding Fathers' Nightmare: America Is Corrupt to the Core

- the great inequality in the USA: (c) C.H. Smith

The wave inside the Diamond is not completed in the middle. Therefore, it is possible to build such a form of Diamond. The output will be LONG.
Igrok, how do you like this option?

unlikely... 1.34-5 is a must on EUR/USD...

i have not gone short but it is also giving indications about going short.

btw there are large gaps on both ends of the March trading range on DXY...indicated by red lines...