The end of the US stock market is nearing

I have no doubt there are way more unanswered questions than just those three... but let's discuss those 3 for the start...
1. "politicides" that took place in Indonesia and Cambodia are not good examples in our case... totally different backgrounds and situations, from my point of view... though, if to consider gun ownership only, then it seems that R side is likely to win easily... but because it's gonna be a war between the nationalistic R-part and the globalist D-part it's likely that some other countries will also get involved into it by supporting D-side in lots of different ways... therefore the victory for either one is not guaranteed...
2. I do respect Martin and his views but disagree with him in regards to this very issue because of some purely technical reasons...
3. as always, the devil is in details... I'm actually not expecting that the stock market will completely disappear once and for all... though the drop to under 2008-9 levels seems to me more than likely just for purely technical reasons mentioned above... besides back then in the 19-th century all the market's conditions were totally different and the share of the financial capital in the economy did not exceed even 5%... nowadays it's over 50% and this part of the capital is no longer able to reproduce itself... so, the reason for the drop is not going to be political... it's purely economical and politics may just contribute to it...

HI Igor,
I was making an observation on the current political climate, A common enemy (manufactured?) might appear in Africa for instance where the USA might be able to solve a few issues, those being China moving into Africa and limit the amount of resources they can educe from the region; The USA could also take the side of the Black oppressed there in turn mitigating issues at home. Parts of Africa i.e. the stage, offers greater difficulties for media to cover the story, thus making it easier to control the story.
Malaria, prior to 2010 was the biggest killer of US soldiers, however the synthetic remedy (developed by the Chinese some thousands of years ago ?) seems to be able to mitigate and possibly provide an edge in such environments. Resources would be up for grabs presumably, the UK along with other countries would have a demand for manufacturing weapons etc, oil would likely rise and the price of other resources, meaning the USA's "partners" may not object to the story. A good war can save a Presidency or a Prime Minister plenty of examples of this, as is examples of war by proxy. Of course should China be able to "win" some land in Africa it may enable them to achieve their goals meaning that they may be a willing participant. Morally at the bottom is human life, the cheapest commodity of all and for some centuries now it seems that Africa is toward the lower end of that where lives are concerned. This may not end the US stock market and in fact prolong it or, depending on costs and outcomes add further fuel to an inevitable drop.

I am amazed by the resilience of this US Stock Market. Amazingly enough, the S&P500 is up 12% for the last 12 months, despite the extreme Covid 19 shock. I remain bullish on the USD, and still consider it a safe haven currency.

Looks like a great opportunity to short NASDAQ with stops above the previous top. Just incredible Risk/Reward Ratio.

here is the right way of dealing with a cause of potential economic threat endangering a particular retail business... https://twitter.com/i/status/1267620867590311938

Tooooomuch talking just squeeze the "safety" finger and all this bs will end rather quickly.

"Heard there's a short seller around here" https://twitter.com/Hipster_Trader/s...852998/photo/1

Exactly what I said before - a gun and willingness to use it.
Everything else such as time and place and ideology etc is secondary
And looks like the opposite guy (without a gun) got it and was trying to dig...

yeah, right... still, a very unfortunate blow over the head of an already greatly suffering economy in the midst of worldwide pandemic doesn't make any sense to me... meanwhile it seems that the market is about to renew its decline...S&P futures don't look good today...might be a double top on NASDAQ also...this flat on the eur/usd is not going to survive for long as well...

I have no idea what might be the point of building a longer-term position by adding to the losing ones... it might sometimes make sense in other markets perhaps but unlikely in FX... any bias in opinion only makes sense when such a thing is supported by some sort of a trading signal... other than that it would rather make a perfect strategy just to follow the market instead of arguing with it...

BTW there is a probability that this picture on the DXY chart is now depicting yet another diamond in progress... in this case the buck has plenty of room to drop further towards 91.50 ... in case of a diamond this one is gonna be a reversal one... I already mentioned somewhere here that on a longer run 1.35 area on the EUR/USD looks like a must...

here it is https://www.forexfactory.com/showthr...4#post12880404

on the AUD/USD the upper flat border of the shown rectangular triangle (orange line) is a magnet... thus also adding credibility to the DXY and EUR/USD outlook...

You also posted this just over a week ago. Hmm.

yes.. I did... was hoping that it will make another and more precise top for the second diagonal on the DXY... doesn't seem plausible at the moment... must be reconsidered... I don't stick with opinions and never insist of the wrong ones... though the triangle supportive line will be broken anyways on the push back down... the sequence of the moves is the issue now, especially if it's really a diamond in making...

here is an old USD/JPY chart... take a look at its rectangular triangle and compare to the one on the AUD/USD that I just posted above... just pay attention to the fact that the market always comes back to such formations and protrude through the flat border of such a pattern even if there is no follow-through after it...

same, as with triangles, is true for continuation diamonds... the market always comes back to them... here is the one on the McDonald's stock... this chart alone suggests that the market will inevitably come back down to 2008-9 levels...

H Igork,

Help me understand some of the correlations to what you are saying. I to caught the down leg in 2008 with only the understanding of commodity vs haven, unwind of the carry trade. it served me well.. I started shorting the aud jpy in feb of this yr and was lucky to catch the panic leg in march.. I held and have given it all back,, as i added on the way down.

I am having an internal Delima with understanding what will happen to the dollar and or the yen if the equities tank. I at one time held a melt-up scenario in equities bias due to capital flight to us equities, starting to wonder if that is now the case. ,, if the diamond on the dow and sp hold true and break to 08 levels,, and the diamond on the dxy is indeed a diamond, and further more a reversal then are we in for super inflation. how can I reason this out? I am looking for haven strength deflation, then severe inflation.. so for me as of right now, I wanted to play long dxy one more time. then never buy again. lol

apparently I don't know all the details of your trading plans but, from my opinion, those reasoning of yours do indeed make sense only under certain conditions... if to take a closer look into them it's not a problem to notice that such a strategy is based on some sort of assumption anyways... thus is the risk of being wrong on it... but even in case when the initial projection is flawless overall, still there is a possibility to miscalculate something, especially in terms of money management and risk control... for example, if you take a look at the the history of rise and fall of Long-term Capital Management hedge fund back in 1998, you will see in retrospect that their chosen trading strategy wasn't bad at all... had they had enough capital to support their leveraged positions for just a bit longer, they could have made some substantial profits eventually... unfortunately they miscalculated the risks and the fund went down the drain rather quickly in the fall of that year right before the markets started playing in its favor... my personal experience also proves that my abilities to make correct projections in terms of levels, directions, sequences and timing are not equally strong... the easiest is to project levels, the hardest is to project timing... also it's not an easy task to identify something like a diamond in advance, and I'm not even talking about developing a perfect practical trading strategy while such a formation is still in making... let's for example consider current situation on DXY... I started suspecting that this might eventually become a diamond just as soon as the broadening triangle became apparent on the charts... however, in this case it had taken too long to form a wave that we now assume as being the second diagonal in this potential rhombus like formation...it's been delayed and what we can see now is perhaps an atempt of the market to catch up with timing... but nonetheless being more or less symmetrical in it's geometry, when it comes to directions and sequences, the pattern is not symmetrical in terms of timing... hence there is still a chance of being, at least partially if not even completely, wrong on our expectations at the end... therefore, money management technique is no less important than our understanding of what's is about to take place in the foreseeable future... and balancing them both is not an easy task...

Igork,

I must say, your response took some thought and time that i appreciate.. I am an extreme trader, I only build positions when currencies are at their extreme and or macroeconomics seem to support my bias near term, i use very broad layered approach. so i may have 200 or better entries in a long range of an extreme, and up to 10% drawdown. in 2007 i started shorting the gbpjpy at 235 and because it broke i was able to be almost fully loaded, then luck let me ride almost all the way down, I didn't say any of that to brag it just some insight to my method, and furthermore i didn't trade Brexit cause I just didn't believe it would happen.. so missed it.. I said all this to say I was very lucky in march and now back even.. broke my own rule and didn't take profit at the low. My bias was based on the us equities and the fed intervention on november swap. was a red flag.. This stimulus though unprecedented has me confused..

Here is the premise. The 08 meltdown was not nearly as leveraged as 2020 and the cheap money has fueled the ability for a lot of assets with little equity. This depends on growth for sustenance, and as you have said that is not possible. we are only left with market share and that is divided up and caped. The western lazy fat cats have also failed to increase population to sustain growth along with the care of the now getting old baby boomers. So I know that this Ponzi scheme has to play out at some point, and severe inflation, call it hyperinflation is almost certain. The only thing that has to happen first is the shearing of the sheep. that's where the great fall of the equities and dollar strength under haven status would provide the ability for the .05% to facilitate this and turn right around and let inflation do the rest.
In my hypothesis i can not find the point at which they have had proper time to make the switch. Enter the pandemic. maybe? this is that? Either way, the Monetary system is the tool for the ultimate control. from day 1. Based on my redbrick here one may say if you believe all that then what's the point. well if this is another notch in the belt of the plan then i may as well profit.
I am looking for the third cliff of my trading career at this juncture however this time the currency is already low relative to extremes. I am led to believe they are selling into the euphoric buying and trying to entice the greed of fear of missing out in the neg bias currently. I roam to places like this to find intelligent prospectives to help unwind my thoughts that may result in patience or confirmation.

At this point, my only real indicator for building a position is the extreme levels we were at (unsustainable) and the rally now in the face of low-risk reward and uncertainty. This method has served me very well and allowed my family to be secure in otherwise scary times.

I am looking for the dollar last bull run. The only doubt i have is if that bull run has already happened as we are at extremes already combined with a renewed velocity of increased debt and mandatory spending that becomes the catalyst for inflation.