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FX investing: mid/long term ideas

  • #41
  • May 17, 2020 2:59am May 17, 2020 2:59am
AUDJPY long/short situation #11

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

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Longs are decreasing quickly, while shorts are increasing. Both in extreme territory
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #42
  • May 17, 2020 3:24am May 17, 2020 3:24am
GBPCAD long/short situation #12

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

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Both longs and shorts are flat, nothing to do here
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #43
  • May 17, 2020 3:38am May 17, 2020 3:38am
CHF Index long/short situation #13

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

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Longs are going into extreme, while shorts have cleared all, first since for the past 4 years
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #44
  • Edited 4:25am May 17, 2020 3:59am | Edited 4:25am
NZDCHF long/short situation #14

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

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As of today, longs are non existants, while shorts going extreme

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Net positions above
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #45
  • Edited 4:25am May 17, 2020 4:08am | Edited 4:25am
CADCHF long/short situation #15

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

Attached Image

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Longs are gone, while shorts are hitting the extreme side

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Net positions above
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #46
  • May 17, 2020 4:24am May 17, 2020 4:24am
JPY Index long/short situation #16

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

Attached Image

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Shorts going all in, while longs are disappearing

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Net position above
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #47
  • May 17, 2020 4:26am May 17, 2020 4:26am
USDJPY long/short situation #17

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

Attached Image

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Shorts are pushing up, while longs are decreasing but still there


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Net position above
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #48
  • May 17, 2020 6:39am May 17, 2020 6:39am
GBPCHF long/short situation #18

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

Attached Image

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Shorts are going extreme, pilling up shorts, while longs are are going down.


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Net position above, position is being extreme towards the downside
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #49
  • May 17, 2020 7:14am May 17, 2020 7:14am
MXN Index long/short situation #19

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

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Long bets have been dumped badly, while short side have gone positive and increasing.

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Net position above. Very big long bets have been crushed
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #50
  • May 18, 2020 8:00am May 18, 2020 8:00am
NZDJPY long/short situation #20

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

Attached Image

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Both longs and shorts are reaching their extreme territory

Attached Image

Net position above
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #51
  • May 20, 2020 2:50am May 20, 2020 2:50am
NZDCAD long/short situation #21

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

Attached Image

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Longs are still negative, but close to flat, while shorts are going near extreme towards non existance

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Net position above, totally flat
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #52
  • May 22, 2020 4:21am May 22, 2020 4:21am
CADJPY long/short situation #22

Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing.
The classic situation is the following :
- When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal
- When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel
- Best setup is when both are in sync

Attached Image

Attached Image

Shorts going all in, while longs are going home


Attached Image

Net position above
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #53
  • Edited 3:39am May 24, 2020 3:24am | Edited 3:39am
Currency COT matrix situation as of 22th of may 2020

Explanation :

We look at the extremes from longs, shorts and net position.
Yellow = no strong (continuation of the previous datas)
Green = Extreme buy
Red = Extreme sell

The strongest setup is when Longs, shorts, and net positions are either ALL greens, or ALL red

The datas are meant to change from one week to another, from extreme to flat, from flat to extreme.
We have to look at the overall situation of the past weeks

EDIT : You may notice the net is not equal to the longs minus shorts. Its normal, i used different calculations

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By looking at that matrix, EURGBP, EURCAD and USDCAD are sells, while CADJPy, GBPCHF, and GBPJPY are buys
Always look at others confirmation before buying/selling (price action, support/resistances, indicators, whatever you're good at)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #54
  • May 24, 2020 6:23am May 24, 2020 6:23am
Quoting kuroro001
AUDJPY long/short situation #11 Whenever we analyze a currency pair, we need to check what the longs and shorts are doing. The classic situation is the following : - When buyers are too long, its time to look for correction/reversal - When sellers are too short, its time to look for correction/reversel - Best setup is when both are in sync {image} {image} Longs are decreasing quickly, while shorts are increasing. Both in extreme territory
this is very interesting in corelation with SP500
both went north since march lows. and maybe the best fx indicator of risk was/or still is AUD/JPY so what's hapening here if we compare to the big smart money taking risk in SP500.
Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Market is always right !
S&P 500 WTI/USD
  • #55
  • May 24, 2020 7:34am May 24, 2020 7:34am
Quoting DMA Trader
{quote} this is very interesting in corelation with SP500 both went north since march lows. and maybe the best fx indicator of risk was/or still is AUD/JPY so what's hapening here if we compare to the big smart money taking risk in SP500.
Don't you think its a yen thing instead ?

Like all yen pairs had a bottom in march

I'll post the Yen index updated for this week .... Its very interesting
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #56
  • May 24, 2020 8:14am May 24, 2020 8:14am
JPY Index full analysis #1

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As you can see, the dealers are increasing their short bets, meaning dumb money is going all in on the upside. One advise, don't follow the dumb money.

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Assets managers are very long, better watch out here and once they start unloading their long, yen longs will bleed

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Money managers are becoming net buyers so far, its never a smart idea to be net buyers on top a move.

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Lets have a look at the short side of the dealers. You don't want to buy here, the odds are not in your favor when you see shorts are going stronger weeks after weeks (check CAD and MXN to have an idea of what can happen)

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JPY overall longs (from all market participants) are going all in. Not much space up left

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Short side is being cleared weeks after weeks, no more shorts are alive, meaning once they are alive...Bulls will bleed

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Overall net position on this chart. They are very long, you know what happens when they buy too much

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Weekly system has been reliable in the past. Lately its near flat.
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #57
  • May 27, 2020 4:30am May 27, 2020 4:30am
Subscribed
BARAK
  • #58
  • Jun 1, 2020 1:12pm Jun 1, 2020 1:12pm
Can GBP stage a rally ?

Is there a chance for GBP to rally big time ?
If we look at the past 10 years from the COT report i would say it's not ready yet.

From what i can see, by looking at all gbp longs only from the 3 big market particpants, a 1000 to 2000 pips rally always happened after longs completely vanished (from -20% to -40%)
If i look at this historical report price would need to dive more in order to stag a rally

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To be continued...
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #59
  • Jun 2, 2020 3:32am Jun 2, 2020 3:32am
Quoting kuroro001
Can GBP stage a rally ? Is there a chance for GBP to rally big time ? If we look at the past 10 years from the COT report i would say it's not ready yet. From what i can see, by looking at all gbp longs only from the 3 big market particpants, a 1000 to 2000 pips rally always happened after longs completely vanished (from -20% to -40%) If i look at this historical report price would need to dive more in order to stag a rally {image} To be continued...
I need to know more on COT
Data + Stat + Risk/Emotions Management
  • #60
  • Jun 3, 2020 7:43am Jun 3, 2020 7:43am
Are dealers buying dollars?

By looking at the USD long dealers, we can see they increase a lot on top. Whenever they buy a lot of dollars, EURUSD falls

Will it happen again once they stop the buying?

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COT: The precious data ignored
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