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  • #6,821
  • Jun 2, 2020 1:35pm Jun 2, 2020 1:35pm
My results.

This is cumulative from Monday.

Overall the new RSI method (first three snapshots) is doing a stellar job and vastly outperforming the conventional RSI Methods (last two snapshots)

regards

H
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  • #6,822
  • Jun 2, 2020 5:08pm Jun 2, 2020 5:08pm
Thanks to @hmuller1971's RSI method some of my setups are coming up trumps, I'm running a few setups with different exit strategies to see which one might be better. Based on results @hmuller1971 achieved over the last few weeks my overall target for the week is $500 from a 0.05 lot size base, if I hit $500 then stop for the rest of the week.

Flat $500 weekly target hit on second day of week:
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EL 250/150 hit $368, weekly target not hit start again on Wednesday:
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EL 500/400 hit $480, close enough to weekly target:
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Instead of using HAS(240,1,21,1,1) as the main market direction filter, I used Ichimoku(240) instead, EL 150/100 one'n'done
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The Trendrider(240) setups are not doing so well so far this week:
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  • #6,823
  • Jun 2, 2020 5:58pm Jun 2, 2020 5:58pm
Started Londonish Monday, accidentally reset due to saving a set file so draw down is not shown.
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Continuation of the last couple weeks
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Started Sydney Monday
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  • #6,824
  • Jun 2, 2020 7:48pm Jun 2, 2020 7:48pm
Quoting JustUncleL
Thanks to @hmuller1971's RSI method some of my setups are coming up trumps, I'm running a few setups with different exit strategies to see which one might be better. Based on results @hmuller1971 achieved over the last few weeks my overall target for the week is $500 from a 0.05 lot size base, if I hit $500 then stop for the rest of the week. Flat $500 weekly target hit on second day of week:
I concur, its raking green pips this week .
we just need to find the best exit setup.
When the internal struggle ends, everything becomes easy - Mr. Douglas
  • #6,825
  • Jun 3, 2020 5:00am Jun 3, 2020 5:00am
Quoting JustUncleL
Thanks to @hmuller1971's RSI method some of my setups are coming up trumps, I'm running a few setups with different exit strategies to see which one might be better. Based on results @hmuller1971 achieved over the last few weeks my overall target for the week is $500 from a 0.05 lot size base, if I hit $500 then stop for the rest of the week. Flat $500 weekly target hit on second day of week: {image} EL 250/150 hit $368, weekly target not hit start again on Wednesday: {image} EL 500/400 hit $480, close enough to weekly target: {image} Instead of...

HI JustUncleL

My Opinion is that the new RSI method has really good entries. Its not always perfect and does suffer at major turning points in the market (like all indicators) , but in general its pretty good. The exits are where the money is made !!!!

Im really keen to test it on shorter time frames (5Min and 15 Min), but for that I will need a pip locker. The DB TS and TP settings are not sensitive enough, even 0.1 of the ADR is too wide. I need surgical precision for shorter time frames. I am of the opinion that we will be able to get good results with shorter time frames if we can fine tune exits via a pip locker.

Still hoping Seller9 will consider developing this functionality as part of the next DB versions.

regards

H
  • #6,826
  • Edited 10:54am Jun 3, 2020 5:36am | Edited 10:54am
HI Guys

I built a Monte Carlo simulator in Excel as I believe it is very important to understand what you can expect from your trading system. We used to do this type of research at the Hedge Fund where i worked and it helped us to fine tune our trading. A Monte Carlo simulator helps to visualize most of the potential outcomes in order to have a better idea of risk.

I want to share it with the group as it will open your eyes i.t.o Risk / Reward ratio and Win% required in order to be a successful trader.

Inputs are in the yellow cells , dont change anything else !!!
press f9 every time you want to rerun a simulation

This simulator takes your account equity, risk fraction per trade, your win rate(%) and your RR (Risk / Reward) ratio and does 100 simulations for 400 trades and then calculates averages from this. In other words, you need to take the closed out trade stats (preferably more than 30 closed trades) for one of your trading strategies and calculate the win rate and the RR and feed it into the MC simulator and it will simulate (based on your inputs) what you can expect in the future.
This will give you a damn good idea of what to expect and what your chances are of blowing up an account or what DDs to expect.

This kind of research is actually very valuable.

Hope it expands your field of vision and knowledge..

regards

H
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Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Monte Carlo Simulation v2.xlsx   1.2 MB | 213 downloads
  • #6,827
  • Jun 3, 2020 10:55am Jun 3, 2020 10:55am
Quoting HMuller1971
HI Guys I built a Monte Carlo simulator in Excel as I believe it is very important to understand what you can expect from your trading system. We used to do this type of research at the Hedge Fund where i worked and it helped us to fine tune our trading. A Monte Carlo simulator helps to visualize most of the potential outcomes in order to have a better idea of risk. I want to share it with the group as it will open your eyes i.t.o Risk / Reward ratio and Win% required in order to be a successful trader. Inputs are in the yellow cells , dont change...
thanks for sharing H
When the internal struggle ends, everything becomes easy - Mr. Douglas
  • #6,828
  • Edited 4:20pm Jun 3, 2020 11:11am | Edited 4:20pm
To Give you guys an idea of how I use the MC Simulator

I have taken the closed out trade data for the new RSI strategy for the last 3 days (Snap shot 1) and calculated the basic stats.

I then use calculated stats as input to the MC SIM and it gives me an idea of how risky my strategy is.
First I input the win% and the Win Loss Ratio and then I "tune" the Risk Per Trade so that Ave Win and Ave Loss in the MC Sim matches my Ave Win and Ave Loss stats calculated form my closed out data.

Once I have done that, the MC Simulation gives me an idea of the expected risks and returns over a 400 trade horizon

I now know that its possible to expect a worst case DD of approx 16%, and that average DDs of approx 6% is expected and nothing weird.
I also know that this strategy will have a high probability of delivering an average of 15% return ($1500) over every 400 trade horizon
and i know that this system generates about 70 trades per day, so that 400 horizon = about 6 days.
I also know that this system has the potential to deliver approx $5000 per month.

the important thing to know is that my max DD is around 16%. If this is too high i can reduce my Risk Per Trade by toning done my Lots in the DB.
or i can try and increase my Average Win by using a better exit strategy. (this is why testing is so important)

so, guy,.. lots to glean from this.


regards

H
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  • #6,829
  • Jun 3, 2020 1:26pm Jun 3, 2020 1:26pm
I have been trying something on the M15 time frame today and need to see if it has any legs to stand on.

Too early to get into what I am doing but will know more by the end of the week.

It has several built in SLs and TPs.

First Day so far, I will just let it run 22/7 and see what happens as each trade is on its own for max profit:

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  • #6,830
  • Edited 4:17pm Jun 3, 2020 1:35pm | Edited 4:17pm
Quoting seller9
I have been trying something on the M15 time frame today and need to see if it has any legs to stand on. Too early to get into what I am doing but will know more by the end of the week. It has several built in SLs and TPs. First Day so far, I will just let it run 22/7 and see what happens as each trade is on its own for max profit: {image} {image}

Seller9,

Man,.. you know exactly how to build suspense..!!

Cant wait to see more results.

regards

H
  • #6,831
  • Jun 3, 2020 2:29pm Jun 3, 2020 2:29pm
My Results for the week so far:

Remember this is cumulative from the start of the week

I will not be tracking the two conventional RSI setups anymore as i know they are not what I am interested in and will never trade them.
I just ran them alongside the new RSI method for several weeks as a benchmark.

I will however look at testing other variations of exits.

I would have loved to have the following two exit strategies to test:

1) a 3 level pip locker and
2) an ATR Trailing Stop loss

(hint hint, nudge nudge Seller9 )))) )

regards

H
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  • #6,832
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:22pm Jun 3, 2020 4:22pm
Following on from yesterdays post re @hmuller1971's RSI setup, my weekly target is currently $500 from 0.05 lot size and stop. The idea is to have an achievable target that hopefully gets hit before the tendency of cycles/trends to reverse towards the end of the week. So far most of my RSI setups have already reached their weekly targets:

Mondays Ichimoku(240)+RSIe(60) setup with daily EL 150/100 one'n'done exit, this has hit weekly target
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New Ichimoku(240)+RSIe(60) setup with daily EL 500/400 one'n'done exit hit daily target, but just a little short of weekly so start again Thursday.
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Final my last HAS1(240)+RSIe(60) setup with daily EL 250/100 one'n'done hit daily and weekly target
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  • #6,833
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:39pm Jun 3, 2020 4:39pm
Entry based on H's Rsi settings, just trying out other exit methods.

one on a 0.4 TP/SL... DD is almost negligible:
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and with HAS opposite signal and BEL... big DD but harvested green pips is way better:
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Looks good but we're still in the middle of the week...we shall see
When the internal struggle ends, everything becomes easy - Mr. Douglas
  • #6,834
  • Jun 3, 2020 4:48pm Jun 3, 2020 4:48pm
Quoting JustUncleL
Following on from yesterdays post re @hmuller1971's RSI setup, my weekly target is currently $500 from 0.05 lot size and stop. The idea is to have an achievable target that hopefully gets hit before the tendency of cycles/trends to reverse towards the end of the week. So far most of my RSI setups have already reached their weekly targets: Mondays Ichimoku(240)+RSIe(60) setup with daily EL 150/100 one'n'done exit, this has hit weekly target {image} {image} New Ichimoku(240)+RSIe(60) setup with daily EL 500/400 one'n'done exit hit daily target, but...
Hi JustUncleL

I like your idea of using the Ichimoku as the Directional trend filter.

H
  • #6,835
  • Jun 3, 2020 5:49pm Jun 3, 2020 5:49pm
Quoting HMuller1971
{quote} Hi JustUncleL I like your idea of using the Ichimoku as the Directional trend filter. H
I was hoping Ichimoku(240) would give a stronger direction indication than HAS(240) generally Ichimoku will not bring you in until there is already a strong trend running. So far looks good but very early in testing results.
  • #6,836
  • Edited 11:56pm Jun 3, 2020 6:09pm | Edited 11:56pm
Quoting HMuller1971
{quote} The exits are where the money is made !!!
You said it partner! I have been personally working on finding an exit indicator that:

1. Gets me out before my entry triggers a new trade in the other direction. This depends on the entry, so hard to have a one size fits all.

2. Beats 1ATR on TP. - I currently use IMAX (non repaint) as my exit in my D1 trading however after (visually) backtesting on the 28 for the last 3 years I hit about 50/50 on 1ATR with my entry so I might as well just use ATR as the TP (though it is painful to watch those big runs get away from you) Not sure how it works out on lower charts and am still testing.

3. Attached are a few exit indicators i'm testing. iMAX is the only one i have traded live for over a year and believe it can be beat. The others are only ones i'm testing and only as exit indicators then tweaking the settings. Maybe some use for someone in visual testing for others to see if they are better than what they are currently using. I have yet to be convinced that they will beat a basket close or individual pair ATR close over time. Still looking though

4. I currently think that an exit for one system might not be the best exit for another; and (i guess this is 5.) that a "swing" style entry indicator might actually be a really good exit indicator for a trend entry system. That said i have only been at this for a couple of years so my opinion will most likely change

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Oscar.mq4   3 KB | 297 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 fozzy-alert.mq4   3 KB | 248 downloads
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 iMAX3alert.ex4   34 KB | 232 downloads
  • #6,837
  • Edited 2:33am Jun 4, 2020 1:59am | Edited 2:33am
Hi alula

I have actually been looking for a decent Trade Exit Management EA for a long time. I have looked high and low and have found many but they were all coded more than 5 years ago and none of them currently work as there have been so many changes to the MT4 framework. Its soo bloody frustrating. There is one EA that is has everything in it i want but sadly i cannot get it to work. Its called TrailingWithPartialClose.mq4. INfo about it here: https://forex-station.com/app.php/attach/file/3363258

I did contact the author (MrPip on FF) but he just ignores me (I guess in his eyes im just an nuisance) . I just want to cry.. I would love it if Seller9 can build a trade management EA toolset. or add some of this functionality to his DB.

in any case ,...Thanks for sharing i will check out the three files you mentioned.

regards

H
  • #6,838
  • Jun 4, 2020 2:32am Jun 4, 2020 2:32am
Quoting HMuller1971
Hi alula I have actually been looking for a decent Trade Exit Management EA for a long time. I have looked high and low and have found many but they were all coded more than 5 years ago and none of them currently work as there have been so many changes to the MT4 framework. Its soo bloody frustrating. There is one EA that is has everything in it i want but sadly i cannot get it to work. Its called TrailingWithPartialClose.mq4. INfo about it here: https://forex-station.com/app.php/attach/file/3363258 I did contact the author (MrPip on...
I've seen that TrailingWithPartialClose.mq4 before and it was working a few years ago, it has all the needed options, I don't remember if all the options worked properly though. I'm not an MQL script writer but surely it should not take much to make few changes to fit in with the current MT4 protocol, a pity the originator is not answering your calls for help.
  • #6,839
  • Edited 10:15am Jun 4, 2020 9:55am | Edited 10:15am
Quoting JustUncleL
{quote} I've seen that TrailingWithPartialClose.mq4 before and it was working a few years ago, it has all the needed options, I don't remember if all the options worked properly though. I'm not an MQL script writer but surely it should not take much to make few changes to fit in with the current MT4 protocol, a pity the originator is not answering your calls for help.
Check this one out (attached) it will not work with USA FIFO but you may not need to worry about that where you are (unfortunately i do)

I think if the same idea was used in the DB but with a hidden SL/TP we could avoid FIFO. However this leaves us exposed to a flash crash where we will be last in line for our SL, at least i think thats how it works i could be wrong. Currently just using 2 accounts one to scale out at 1-ATR and one to let it ride until the exit indicator triggers, maybe there is some other way around this other than offshore sketchy brokers.

Gotta love US regulations protecting us from ourselves (as our cities burn )
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf NNFX Trade Assistant V4.0.pdf   272 KB | 4,682 downloads
File Type: ex4 NNFX_Trade_Assistant_v4.0.ex4   42 KB | 289 downloads
  • #6,840
  • Jun 4, 2020 1:24pm Jun 4, 2020 1:24pm
Quoting alula
{quote} Check this one out (attached) it will not work with USA FIFO but you may not need to worry about that where you are (unfortunately i do) I think if the same idea was used in the DB but with a hidden SL/TP we could avoid FIFO. However this leaves us exposed to a flash crash where we will be last in line for our SL, at least i think thats how it works i could be wrong. Currently just using 2 accounts one to scale out at 1-ATR and one to let it ride until the exit indicator triggers, maybe there is some other way around this other than offshore...
Hi alula

Thanks for the contribution.
However im looking for an ea that will be totally handsfree and will manage the exits for me.
I would like an EA that has several different exit options (Break Even stops, Trailing stops e.g. candle high or low trailing, 3 level pip locker, ATR trailing, MA trailing, etc)

I know these things must exist, but for the life of me cannot find one that works.

regards

H
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