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  • #241
  • Jun 2, 2020 2:40pm Jun 2, 2020 2:40pm
Quoting thomi
{quote} sorry but i don't understand how you trace your sh rejection? Besides, what do you mean by sh rejection? Is this the last low point of the daily rise? {image}
Maybe this can help (it's D1 TF not H1) :

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This said, if you have your own view, it might be better to stick with it, especially in the middle of a trade. There is no dogma in Technical Analysis. At the beginning, there are only candles, break up and break down. I only work with that but that's a choice.

All the rest (trendlines, MA, misc. indicators, ichimoku, ...) are a transformation of the information "stored" in the candles, in order to get rid of some noise or to highlight some characteristics that it's not possible to see directly in the candles. If you have built your own system/view, it might be counterproductive to mix it with another one. GL.
  • #242
  • Edited 4:08pm Jun 2, 2020 3:27pm | Edited 4:08pm
I understood that you were on a daily basis and not on 1h, I thought that sh rejection served you to materialize the resistance (easier to see in H1) I do not use any indicator or other because they are all always behind the price. This is why I came across your file. I'm going to study your next job and I will probably ask you a few questions if you don't mind.

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if I had to go long on eurgbp I would wait for the breakout of 0.8916 with force and amplitude (it is above all the top that I work) and I would wait for a retracement to take long.


thank you for your answers :-)
  • #243
  • Jun 2, 2020 4:22pm Jun 2, 2020 4:22pm
Another bullish close in EURUSD

Still zero sign of profit taking. No long wick, no big red candle, meaning bulls loaded from the bottom just want more .........

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Ongoing trades in EURUSD :

MT play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x changed to 1.127x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x trailed @ 1.088x

Pending trades in EURUSD :

ST retrace/ECB hedge play : Pending Short @ 1.120x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.099x STP 1.131x


Quoting thomi
I understood that you were on a daily basis and not on 1h, I thought that sh rejection served you to materialize the resistance (easier to see in H1) I do not use any indicator or other because they are all always behind the price. This is why I came across your file. I'm going to study your next job and I will probably ask you a few questions if you don't mind. {image} if I had to go long on eurgbp I would wait for the breakout of 0.8916 with force and amplitude (it is above all the top that I work) and I would wait for a retracement to take long....
Well, very generally, any breakdown point implies it's a resistance for bulls and a support for bears (and vice versa for a break up point). But is it a strong or a soft one ? The whole TA context & FA can help, at least it helps me, then experience.
To be honest, I'm afraid I'm going to struggle to answer to all your questions. Maybe you can try slowly to make your own opinion, I would feel more comfortable as what I'm doing in this thread is not to highlight a specific trading system, it's just a trading journal (being here helps me to "structure" my trading). I hope it's ok for you.
  • #244
  • Jun 2, 2020 7:54pm Jun 2, 2020 7:54pm
EURUSD finally hitting the 1.12 handle

MT longs from 1.089x are now in very deep profit + 310 pips

Quoting Replicant
... Resistances I have above : - highs of the 2 breakdown candles @ 1.1181 and @ 1.1208 - reversal point @ 1.121x - extrem I have for current flow up is @ 1.1274 (all above should be locked via upcoming ECB) If I closed my ST longs last friday, I'm still holding my MT longs : {quote} As said last friday, I'm now looking to hedge them with upcoming ECB . As it sands, I'm aiming @ 1.120x to pull the trigger for my hedge ...
Quoting Replicant
... Pending trades in EURUSD : ST retrace/hedge play : Pending Short @ 1.120x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.099x STP 1.131x {image}

=> ECB hedge filled @ 1.120x : Short @ 1.120x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.099x STP 1.131x

=> All profits are now locked

I'm long 1.089x and short 1.120x with 310 pips profit locked. ECB can come :-).

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Different scenarii for the hedge now :

scenario 1 : hedge works
price retraces to shorts' target via ECB (+110 pips @ TP1, +210 pips @ TP2) but doesn't take longs' STP (i.e. no reversal of the trend)

scenario 2 : hedge works + the super bingo
price hits 1.127x on a short lived wick, MT longs can clear TP2 (+380 pips), but price doesn't hit hedge's STP, case falls then in scenario 1.

scenario 3 : useless hedge
no retrace (or shallow) despite ECB, price wipes out hedge's STP (- 110 pips), MT longs can clear TP2 (+ 380 pips) but all in all, only +270 profit because of hedge's cost

scenario 4 : retrace is not a retrace but a reversal (worst scenario)
price retraces to shorts' target via ECB flows but takes also MT longs' STP @ 1.088x (i.e. reversal)
+210 pips for the hedge but -10 pips for the longs' STP, all in all +200 pips at the end


To wrap up :

MT play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.127x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x trailed @ 1.088x

ST retrace/hedge play : Short @ 1.120x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.099x STP 1.131x
  • #245
  • Jun 3, 2020 10:18am Jun 3, 2020 10:18am
In US Equities, ES on the brink to test 313x

If Bulls manage to break up 313x, they will trigger a reversal and will set a ST Bottom @ 273x
If they do it, current leg up won't be anymore a dead cat bounce from a strict TA perspective.
ST TF will become Neutral, TA wise. Surreal giving the context. Ride paid by the FED (and, at the end, by everyone having $ on their account).

Worth tracking what's going to happen @ this level. If they failed to break up, then bears swingers can aim the lows of 24xx.

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  • #246
  • Jun 3, 2020 11:22am Jun 3, 2020 11:22am
1.127x plz

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  • #247
  • Jun 3, 2020 3:18pm Jun 3, 2020 3:18pm
Quoting Replicant
Dollar's price action on D1 looks bearish I tried to explain why in the chart below {image}
Super checked

US Dollar completing the leg down in a superb timing right before ECB ..........

That was the call a month ago :

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That is today :

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Superb. Especially the retrace @ 99.9x (which coincided with the retrace in EURUSD @ 1.089x, level that triggered our ST & MT Play)

End of journey looks around the corner. Just gives me my 1.127x now ...
  • #248
  • Jun 3, 2020 5:54pm Jun 3, 2020 5:54pm
ECB expected to increase its stimulus by 500 billion euros tomorrow
  • #249
  • Jun 4, 2020 6:55am Jun 4, 2020 6:55am
Quoting Replicant
ECB expected to increase its stimulus by 500 billion euros tomorrow
PEPP increased by 600 billions euros
Program extended to end of June 2021 (initially Dec 2020)
  • #250
  • Jun 4, 2020 7:06am Jun 4, 2020 7:06am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} and 1.089x held on H4, held on D1 and held on W1 [...] A super bullish combo. [...] MT play Long filled @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x Let's see what is going to happen in the upcoming weeks. By end of Q2, we could have the official go for EU Bonds (THAT IS HUGE) EURUSD H4 Map {image} EURUSD D1 Map {image} EURUSD W1 Map {image}
Quoting Replicant
[...] extrem I have for current flow up is @ 1.1274 (all above should be locked via upcoming ECB) [...] Ongoing trades in EURUSD : MT play : Long @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.128x changed to 1.127x TP3 1.164x STP 1.075x trailed @ 1.088x ...
Quoting Replicant
1.127x plz {image}

1.127x hit

Clearing second target of the MT swing in EURUSD here @ 1.127x from 1.089x

+ 380 pips

Max drawdown = - 20 pips
Max drawup = + 380 pips
Realized PnL = + 200 pips @ TP1 + 380 pips @ TP2


=> Keeping the remaining for final target @ 1.164x and trailing STP @ 1.098x now


Let's see now if my hedge for ECB flows is going to hold :

Quoting Replicant
[...] ECB hedge filled @ 1.120x : Short @ 1.120x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.099x STP 1.131x => All profits are now locked I'm long 1.089x and short 1.120x with 310 pips profit locked. ECB can come :-) [...]

=> For the first time since 1.089x, I have now more shorts (x2) than longs (x1)

Hedge's STP sits @ 1.131x

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  • #251
  • Jun 4, 2020 9:40am Jun 4, 2020 9:40am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} {quote} {quote} 1.127x hit Clearing second target of the MT swing in EURUSD here @ 1.127x from 1.089x + 380 pips Max drawdown = - 20 pips Max drawup = + 380 pips Realized PnL = + 200 pips @ TP1 + 380 pips @ TP2 => Keeping the remaining for final target @ 1.164x and trailing STP @ 1.098x now Let's see now if my hedge for ECB flows is going to hold : {quote} => For the first time since 1.089x, I have now more shorts (x2) than longs (x1) Hedge's STP sits @ 1.131x {image}
Hedge's STP hit @ 1.131x

It was a very dovish ECB but we had only an intraday retrace from 1.127x
A useless hedge -110 pips nibbling my longs gains

It's scenario 3 that has unfolded :

Quoting Replicant
... scenario 3 : useless hedge no retrace (or shallow) despite ECB, price wipes out hedge's STP (- 110 pips), MT longs can clear TP2 (+ 380 pips) but all in all, only +270 profit because of hedge's cost ...
Only remaining position I have in EURUSD are the MT longs from 1.089x :

MT longs @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.127x TP3 1.164x STP trailed @1.098x

Final target @ 1.164x needs the official "go" from European Council for EU bonds : next meeting - meaning first chance - to take place by next 18-19 June

To sum up, portfolio :

was long from 1.089x to 1.120x
was fully hedged from 1.120x to 1.127x
was short from 1.127x to 1.131x
and is now long again from 1.131x

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  • #252
  • Jun 4, 2020 10:04am Jun 4, 2020 10:04am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} Hedge's STP hit @ 1.131x It was a very dovish ECB but we had only an intraday retrace from 1.127x A useless hedge -110 pips nibbling my longs gains It's scenario 3 that has unfolded : {quote} Only remaining position I have in EURUSD are the MT longs from 1.089x : MT longs @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.127x TP3 1.164x STP trailed @1.098x Final target @ 1.164x needs the official "go" from European Council for EU bonds : next meeting - meaning first chance - to take place by...
* Trailing MT longs' STP @ 1.114x now

MT longs @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.127x TP3 1.164x STP trailed @ 1.114x
  • #253
  • Jun 4, 2020 10:25am Jun 4, 2020 10:25am
EURUSD Map on D1

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  • #254
  • Edited 6:57pm Jun 4, 2020 6:42pm | Edited 6:57pm
EURUSD is now trading inside the SH's structure of early March, in both H4 & D1 TF.
(charts are below)

=> On H4, SH rejection @ 1.1332 has capped the flow so far. If taken, next resistance I have in this TF is simply the SH resistance and starts @ 1.1401.

=> On D1, SH rejection @ 1.13359 was taken on the close. However, it was by less than 2 pips so it's very hard to be very definitive on that topic (no idea if an algo would be). Next resistance is the SH resistance and starts @ 1.1437.

I have nothing in between, no other levels.

=> Regarding US Dollar Index (DXY) I was talking about yesterday, it is now trading below the bottom of the range (97.1x), but it's not yet trading inside the SL's structure of early March : SL rejection (what I called extrem on the chart) sits @ 96.11 and low of the day was @ 96.57.

That last point intrigues me.

Who is now in the driver seat ? Before today, it was obvious it was the EURUSD bulls (obvious because the FA triggers were obvious : first, M&M's proposal then VdL's plan). But today, we had a very dovish ECB announcing further easing and delivering a gloomy outlook for EZ and the momentum leg has just continued. I took it like Bulls are just ignoring it and prefer riding the potential creation of EU bonds by European Union. But what about if what is happening from today was just a long squeeze in ... US Dollar alone ? And what if the big hands were just aiming that extrem @ 96.11 ? Nothing anymore related directly to Euro ... And this, just a few days ahead of next Wenesday's FED, where FED is not expected to ease further as US equities are almost trading ATH (surreal). That would make sense. Unchanged FED at next FOMC, dollar picks up, US equities retrace (healthy and overdue). When something looks wrong, maybe a puzzle piece is missing. And that would leave plenty of time for a healthy retrace in EURUSD before European Council takes place. That was almost my initial plan with the hedge I had loaded before STP was taken. 96.1x in DXY would mean EURUSD trading somewhere in the range [1.138x ; 1.142x], depending of the behaviour of the other pairs. I'm not going to open a hedge again at these levels but I'm just going to clear the remaining MT longs @ 1.138x :

MT longs @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.127x TP3 1.164x changed to 1.138x STP trailed @ 1.114x

Then I will look for a retrace swing for upcoming FED before uptrend resumes in EURUSD via next European Council. That's not far from what I had initially planned actually except it was via an hedge. This time only standalone trades. Tonight, I have listened again to Christine's conference and it's very hard to picture a direct leg to 1.164x. There is something wrong. Dollar squezze is the only valid explanation I have.

EURUSD H4 Map

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EURUSD D1 Map

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US DOLLAR Index Map

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  • #255
  • Edited 6:52am Jun 5, 2020 6:39am | Edited 6:52am
Quoting Replicant
...To sum up, portfolio : was long from 1.089x to 1.120x was fully hedged from 1.120x to 1.127x was short from 1.127x to 1.131x and is now long again from 1.131x ..
Quoting Replicant
... 96.1x in DXY would mean EURUSD trading somewhere in the range [1.138x ; 1.142x], depending of the behaviour of the other pairs. I'm not going to open a hedge again at these levels but I'm just going to clear the remaining MT longs @ 1.138x : MT longs @ 1.089x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.127x TP3 1.164x changed to 1.138x STP trailed @ 1.114x ...

1.138x was hit in EURUSD

=> All remaining MT longs from 1.089x were cleared

+ 490 pips

Max drawdown = - 20 pips
Max drawup = + 490 pips
Realized PnL = + 200 pips @ TP1 + 380 pips @ TP2 + 490 pips @ TP3

If I include the hedge that was stopped out @ 1.131x yesterday and cost me - 110 pips :

Quoting Replicant
... ST retrace/hedge play : Short @ 1.120x TP1 1.109x TP2 1.099x STP 1.131x
that makes all in all :

Realized PnL of (MT Play + Hedge)= + 200 pips @ TP1 + 270 pips @ TP2 + 380 pips @ TP3

For the first time since 1.089x, I'm sideline in EURUSD.

=> Looking for shorts now ahead of next FED to ride a retrace before uptrend resumes ahead of European Council.

For the record, DXY hasn't hit extrem @ 96.1x (low @ 96.44), meaning there is still some margin if my interpretation of the last part of the leg up is correct (the part above 1.127x is just a long squeeze in USD and nothing anymore related to Euro)

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  • #256
  • Jun 5, 2020 7:49am Jun 5, 2020 7:49am
Quoting Replicant
... For the first time since 1.089x, I'm sideline in EURUSD. => Looking for shorts now ahead of next FED to ride a retrace ... {image}
unchanged FED at next Wenesday's FOMC is guaranteed after today's NFP print

Trying a retrace swing in EURUSD from here

=> Short filled @ 1.131x TP1 1.123x TP2 1.115x TP3 1.109x STP 1.139x
  • #257
  • Jun 5, 2020 8:30am Jun 5, 2020 8:30am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} unchanged FED at next Wenesday's FOMC is guaranteed after today's NFP print Trying a retrace swing in EURUSD from here => Short filled @ 1.131x TP1 1.123x TP2 1.115x TP3 1.109x STP 1.139x
1.1326 is fresh rejection of the highs on H4 ..

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reversal in this TF sits @ 1.118x
  • #258
  • Jun 5, 2020 9:03am Jun 5, 2020 9:03am
Quoting Replicant
{quote} 1.1326 is fresh rejection of the highs on H4 .. {image} reversal in this TF sits @ 1.118x
lol retrace to 1.1324, 2 pips below the break down point @ 1.1326, and down we go...

=> TA wise, it smells good

=> FA wise, the combo very dovish ECB + huge overshoot in NFP doesn't leave a lot of margin for another outcome

Let's see
  • #259
  • Jun 5, 2020 12:25pm Jun 5, 2020 12:25pm
Quoting Replicant
{quote} lol retrace to 1.1324, 2 pips below the break down point @ 1.1326, and down we go... => TA wise, it smells good => FA wise, the combo very dovish ECB + huge overshoot in NFP doesn't leave a lot of margin for another outcome Let's see
=> Bears have kept loading at that break down point 1.132x the whole EU afternoon, level is completely unveiled now.

London has closed bearish. Next resistances I have below (still on H4) :

1.1272 last break up
1.1237 last rejection from the lows (one could argue it's a tiny break there and real rejection sits @ 1.1225)
1.118x the main dish, a break there and we will have a reversal in this TF

Ongoing trade in EURUSD :

Quoting Replicant
{quote} unchanged FED at next Wenesday's FOMC is guaranteed after today's NFP print Trying a retrace swing in EURUSD from here => Short filled @ 1.131x TP1 1.123x TP2 1.115x TP3 1.109x STP 1.139x
Short @ 1.131x TP1 1.123x TP2 1.115x TP3 1.109x STP 1.139x

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  • #260
  • Jun 6, 2020 1:08pm Jun 6, 2020 1:08pm
It's really historic how the self proclaimed experts were caught with pants down with last NFP's report.

It's still one shot though, now we have to track the other numbers to get a confirmation of a quick recovery. But what had happened these last months could at the end only be a one time statistical anomaly driven by the WW lockdown. Reopening is obviously not enough, confidence is the key, next business sentiment and consumer spending prints are going to be more interesting than ever.

=> In any case, monetary policy wise, that report is enough to block any further easing.

Last month, some voices were calling for negative rates at next June FOMC. Now it's guaranteed we will have an unchanged FED at next Wenesday's FOMC. If nothing new is expected in the statement, the Q/A at the press conference are going to be very interesting.

=> What about FED's loose monetary policy if upcoming macro numbers keep picking up at that pace ?
=> Doesn't FED's money supply look oversized now or soon ?
=> Isn't the risk of inflation going beyond control now greater than the risk of a depression ?
=> Has FED an agenda for tapering ?

=> Mouthwatering conference to come.

Any concern expressed about inflation would be super hawkish but it's obiously far too early.
Any statement like "we are going to start to monitor closely the inflation in the foreseeable future" would be very hawkish but it looks too early too, although less. If Macro keep picking up (especially NFP), we could have that kind of statement as early as end of July, hinting a shift in forward guidance by September FOMC, to start to cut some purchase programs by next December's FOMC.

=> Inflation going overboard is the worst thing that a CB has to deal with. Funny how things go quick nowadays. Last month, negative rates were on the table, and in a few months we could have emergency hikes !

In any case, as said last Friday, US news are enough to lock further easing.

=> Trading & TA wise : in US Dollar (DXY), everything below 96.1x should be locked now while US equities (ES) could be set for a retrace, good news becoming bad news via a less dovish FED. I like 323x in US Equities for a short ahead of FED press conference.
Regarding US Dollar, I'm already short EURUSD from 1.131x for a retrace, but trading GBPUSD might be better to trade a full swing via USD gaining strentgh as we still have potential European Union Bonds coming.

=> Going to map, track and trade GBPUSD in this thread from today onwards.


US DOLLAR (DXY) Map

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US Equities (ES) Map

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